"John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards
17.6 ppg, 8.5 apg, 4.6 rpg (16.4, 8.3, 4.6)
For Wall, a breakthrough season seems to be another year away. In fact, of the five players in this group, Wall's comparables saw the least average improvement the following season -- just 4.5 percent. Although Wall is frequently compared to Derrick Rose, who also played for John Calipari in college and was taken No. 1 overall, SCHOENE matches him with Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder because both players made a relatively low percentage of their 2-point attempts. (Rose is fifth on the list.) Rose was an All-Star as a sophomore, but his big improvement came last season, when he won the MVP award. Westbrook also broke out in his third season, making the All-Star team for the first time.
That's not to say Wall won't improve in Year 2. A big difference could be seen in his turnover rate. Similar players cut their turnovers by 6.4 percent the following season, which explains why Wall's assists-to-turnover rate is projected to go from 2.20 to 2.31."