NBA Limbo
by dt3 on Jun 9, 2011 4:25 PM EDT
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The idea of "NBA limbo" is something that scares the S out of me; To bad to ever be good, to good to ever get better. That team that is just good enough to stay out of the bottom of the lottery, but never really good enough to honestly contend. They grab a 6th-8th seed in the playoffs pretty consistently, win a couple first round games here and there, maybe even steal a 5 spot one year and advance to the 2nd round but the actual idea of them contending is laughable to most outside the team's home.
I think the Gil/Caron/AJ Wizards were the the perfect example of this type of team... the Deron Williams Jazz, Pacers and Bucks teams of the past. With the way this draft is playing out the new Wizards are in danger of falling into that same trap...
Developing a franchise in the NBA is a 2 step process... find a player you can build around, build around said player. An example of a team completing this process... the OKC Thunder. An example of a team failing... the Lebron James Cleveland Cavaliers, the Cavs completed step 1 but never was able to complete step 2. The problem?? (Other than a laundry list of poor FO/FA moves) Getting to good too quick. Within 2 years they were a 50 win team and after swinging and missing at their only other high draft pick (Luke Jackson at 10) their only other option on improving was free agency, a losing proposition for most teams unless you can offer a south beach or hollywood mailing address. I dont see JW becoming that dominant that quick but he does have the ability to at least drag us out of the basement, true lottery contenders portion of the league. Its real hard to actually get better when there are at BEST 2 (maybe 3) sure things in a draft class and every thing past 8-10 is a crap shoot until lady luck wants to let you win one.
I think we can all pretty much agree that the franchise is on a 3-5 year audition for John Wall. Show him that you have a plan, that you can stick that plan and become an actual contender or sell him for pennys on the dollar hoping you can pick up that next franchise player you can audition for. With Wall in place I think the Wizards best option is trying to return to the 3 headed monster and then fill with role players around them. How many players (available past 6) in this years draft do you think can be the 2 or 3 to John Wall's 1, which is already a huuge leap of faith. Is Kawhi Leonard or Jan Vesely going to be 2nd or 3rd option on a team that is going to make John Wall comfortable with signing up long term in DC?? If they are our options does it possibly make sense to not draft the best available player and instead going with the player who will fit an eventual role, keep our win total down for next year in the hopes of choosing 1-6 again rather than 7-12??
Using this line of logic there are 2 main targets for me in this years draft (knowing full well that neither make much sense at 6 and would have to involve a trade down)...
Bismack Biyombo - A player that I admit I have not seen alot of play from. A player that, I am quickly finding out, might not be the player I originally pictured in my head. I originally saw him as a shorter, stronger joakim noah but I am quickly being corrected that the comparison is extremely generous (and possibly totally offbase). What is a better comparison for him?? Is the player I originally thought of as a defensive, athletic physical freak just an athletic physical freak??
Jimmer Fredette - A name I havent heard on this site for months. I always thought a sharp shooting 3 point specialist was a slashing/distributing PGs best friend. Could be an instant offense player coming off the bench and would fit much better playing with a taller PG like wall who could occasionally guard the SG.
(Sorry wanted to finish this thing but got to run and at this point I would rather publish than let this join my list of drafts that never get seen)
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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Wow
I feel you on the first part of your post. Its a fear I think manny of us have. But dude…your solution is BB or the Jimmer?!
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
"I'll be lounging on the couch, just chillin in my snuggie, klick to MTV so they can teach my how to dougie" (Buno Mars, The lazy song)
by Dutch Hoopfan on Jun 9, 2011 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Admittedly, I am woefully uneducated when it comes to most of this years draft but at least I can see (or at least imagine) them filling specific roles on a contending team down the road. Better than I can say for most of the rest.
VOID!!!
by dt3 on Jun 9, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Competitiveness is paid for in this league.
If the owner is not willing to spend, then the team has a ceiling.
by jones-y on Jun 9, 2011 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
While I can see that being true for a team like the Jazz and the Clippers I dont think it was much of an issue for the Pollin Wizards and will be even less of an issue for the Leonsis Wizards. Abe never liked to burn money but we had alot more problems dealing with the league’s salary restrictions than we did with his.
No one knows how the new salary structure of the NBA is going to look but I think its going to be much more favorable to the owners.
VOID!!!
by dt3 on Jun 9, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I still think that team was 1 injury away from contending
You have to have money, yes. But you have to have some luck as well.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
"I'll be lounging on the couch, just chillin in my snuggie, klick to MTV so they can teach my how to dougie" (Buno Mars, The lazy song)
by Dutch Hoopfan on Jun 9, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I would say Jimmer is not a bad guy coming in to relieve Wall.
And occasionally playing beside him for his shooting. But with the guards we already have, I think this team would have no use for him.
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 9, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
We are not scouting BB
Being too good too fast is a good problem to have. CLE front office stunk it up with miss after miss. Orlando is doing the same thing. Maybe they can evaluate talent, but they cant put together a cohesive winning team. James made it to the finals in CLE, but he did not win because he is not there mentally yet. He lacks that killer instinct, still today (so far). So he took the easier road out.
Jonas V is a better option. He is a legit starting center talent and you can tell him to buik up and help him develop overseas on someone else’s dime while you acquire more assets. Kahn makes some stupid moves, but he has some good ones too- like implementing a draft and stash strategy with a legit prospect at the time.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 10, 2011 8:39 AM EDT reply actions
Partially with you
Atlanta is a better example than Cleveland. Cleveland was good enough to contend. They made the finals, they made the ECFs. That’s all any team can ask for – get to the show, have a serious shot at it.
On a related note, I’m not too worried about this scenario just yet. The reason is that, regardless of draft pick, the team isn’t going to be in playoff contention anytime soon. Next year we’ll still be rebuilding, and will probably have a high draft pick in 2012.
What that suggests to me is that we need to acquire a solid piece, and it needs to be someone who can get serious minutes. That’s what I don’t like about biyombo, actually. We’ve got our project bigman. Seraphin was drafted as a multi-year project. I don’t want him and Biyombo competing for you-suck-now-but-someday-you-might-be-great minutes.
If we can get Kanter, we should get Kanter. We do so because his strengths are absent from our team. Otherwise, I’d go for a 3 or a 4, because those are positions where there will be minutes that a young guy can earn. It does us no good to amass project guards and centers, because if we’re too stacked in those positions then those players will never develop.
I understand where you’re coming from but I don’t think you’re exactly right. There are a lot of different ways to get the ring and if you are looking to OKC as a model I’d reply that most championship teams have not been built that way. The Spurs. The MJ Bulls. That’s about it, and those two teams were led by a supreme talent drafted in the top 3 but their second and third and fourth leading players were all lower draft picks (Pippen #5, Grant #10, Manu #57, Parker #28).
I don’t think ending up in mediocre land is a death sentence. Detroit, Dallas, LAL all added free agents that pushed them over the top.
And I think Atlanta showed that they still have some upside.
Did you watch OKC in the playoffs?
They got taken to 7 games by the 8th seed and got blew away by a previously “limbo” team in Dallas. I don’t think you should be so quick to idolize them.
and they are mostly
22-24 year olds. Oh by the way that 8 seat beat the Spurs before getting to OKC.
How was Cleveland in Limbo?
They did an excellent job of building around LeBron. Had the best record in the league for two straight years (something the heat could not do). No team has a 100% shot of winning the title, they were just unlucky in the playoffs.
Yup
any team that has the best regular season has a chance to win in the playoffs and they usually do very well. People who say the playoffs are the only thing that matters don’t seem to realize that the regular season matters even more from the standpoint that a great regular season lets teams control their seeding, and bad regular season teams can never get in the playoffs anyway.
Cleveland DEFINED limbo
an excellent job building around Lebron?? I couldnt disagree with you more. That team was horrible and the 19 wins they put up this year without LBJ proved that. Their one trip to the finals had more to do with a weak eastern conference then anything else; that year their 50 wins would have equated into a 6th seed in the West and the only other teams over 45 wins in the east… the Pistons and the Raptors.
They were in limbo because they were NEVER going to be good enough to win a championship (short of striking gold on the +25th pick) and had no way of getting any better (no real tradeable assets, no room salary cap).
VOID!!!
no teams that dont win the finals and dont have a forseeable path to pushing over that next hump are in limbo.
A list of a couple middle level teams and whether or not I view them as being in Limbo
- Orlando Magic… Limbo. (assuming Howard resigns) How does this team get better?? Even with Jrich’s expiring contract they are what 15 mil over the cap?? Maybe Dwights offensive game catches up to his defensive but short of him lifting the team on his shoulders I dont see a way he is getting any more help then he currently has.
- Atlanta Hawks… On the edge of Limbo…While there overall talent is much lower than the Magic they have much less committed long term and Josh Smith is the type of talent that could net 2/3 prospects from another struggling team which would give them one more shot of rebuilding around Joe Johnson and his incredibly growing contract. If they resign Smith without making any other major moves between now and then… limbo with a capital L.
- Bulls… no limbo… A young team that will continue to grow/improve together. While I dont see alot of tradeable assets and wouldnt expect alot free agency/draft the potential of rose + noah to improve is more than enough to keep them out of limbo.
- Spurs… Limbo… This is as good as it gets from them. Short of the rest of the league taking a step back they are just counting the days until timmy hangs it up and they become the pittsburgh pirates of basketball.
- Thunder… no limbo… see bulls. Young team that will improve with/without new talent.
VOID!!!
explain what?? How they won 66 + 61 games?? Easy, in the NBA regular season you can strap a team to one man’s gargantuan shoulders and win games… alot of games. If you want to win in the playoffs though where winning means 7 game series you are going to need a lot more than one superstar.
VOID!!!
that makes no sense
the heat couldn’t win 60 with LeBron and Wade and Bosh. I’m sorry, but in this instance you’re just wrong. flat out
by zl on Jun 13, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
first year growing pains and an even worse supporting cast… agree to disagree, either way thanks for reading/commenting.
Let me see if I can find a way to put my thoughts to “paper” and get this question out right… Is it possible for a team to win 65+ games and still “surprise” you by winning a championship??
VOID!!!
i would say no
there is some difference between the playoffs and regular season in that starters play more minutes, so teams with weak benches do slightly better in the postseason than in the regular season. But, if anything, the Cavs benefited from that.
by zl on Jun 13, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
not at all… because dallas has always 1) kept some type of depth 2) stored tradeable assets (normally expiring contracts) somewhere near the back of their roster. We all know the laundry list of trades Cuban has made in the past but just look at… KVH (and harris) for kidd in 07; the trade for marion which made josh howard expendable netting them butler, haywood, and stevenson; Erik Dampier for Tyson Chandler. They’ve always been able to turn their garbage into some type of working piece to add to their equation. Im not saying the idea of trying to resell bloated contracts is a model we should recreate but its worked out pretty well for them.
Take a look at the cavs roster pre-decision in comparison. They were looking at 2 years before Jamison’s deal became valuable as en expiring. Was anyone beating down their door for Mo Williams or Varajeo?? Their depth was so thin behind them they would have to made some killer deals to push them to that next level. When JJ Hickson is your only most tradeable asset you know you are in trouble.
VOID!!!
I didnt think the LBJ cavs were good enough to win a championship and didnt think there was any forseeable way of them improving (the team maturing, them making moves through trade/free agency, them getting lucky in the 2nd half of the draft) to be that team .
If you either 1) viewed them good enough as is to win and/or 2) think Danny Ferry was going to be able to find a way to push the team over the top we are just going to have to agree to disagree.
VOID!!!
The cavs had a shot at the title, thats not limbo
1. There’s contenders
2. There’s limbo
3. There’s the up and coming
4. There’s perinnial losers
We are somewhere between 4 and 3
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
"I'll be lounging on the couch, just chillin in my snuggie, klick to MTV so they can teach my how to dougie" (Buno Mars, The lazy song)
by Dutch Hoopfan on Jun 13, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
honest question… when was the official birth date of this incarnation of the wizards?? Imagine you would have to go with opening game this current year.
VOID!!!
Yes, this 23-59 team (3-38 on the road) is the new born Wizards
A losing yr yet again but also the dawn of the John Wall Era.
This team will have atleast one more 20-ish win season I think, just like OKC was a 20-ish win team when they drafted Durant and then another one after they drafted Westbrook.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
"I'll be lounging on the couch, just chillin in my snuggie, klick to MTV so they can teach my how to dougie" (Buno Mars, The lazy song)
by Dutch Hoopfan on Jun 13, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The Arenas trade was day 1.
Although I’d like to think the Crawford trade was really day 1.
by MR on Jun 13, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
In 2009 Cleveland lost the ECF to Orlando in 6 games. One game they lost by one point. One game they lost in OT.
In 2010 they lost the ECF in 6 games. In 2008 they lost the ECF in 7 games. In 2007 they were in the finals and lost in 4 games, one was by 1 point and one was by 3 points.
You really think they had NO SHOT to win a championship? One bench player gets hot, a couple of 3’s go in instead of rattling out, a few calls go the other way…any of those things happen and Cleveland could easily have won one of those rings.
Or if they drafted Taj Gibson or DeJuan Blair instead of Eyenga in 2009? Or if they lucked into someone like Glen Davis, McRoberts, Landry, Ibaka?
You’re talking about a team that was in the preseason discussion of possible champions every year. It’s hard to believe they had no chance to win a ring and were just floating in the limbo that is “top 5 teams in the league”.
by MR on Jun 13, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Suppose they do squek past the magic in 09?? Do they contend any better against the LakeShow that steamrolled Orlando??
Double check on 08+10 because they only got to the 2nd round semis those 2 years and that is still a big step from the ECF.
I think you are being generous to them in 07; you say lost in 4 games with 2 of them being close, I say they got swept.
====
I honestly think my biggest problem with the cavs teams was the lack of a 2nd fiddle to LBJ. While all those players you listed could have played a role for them I dont think any would have made a big enough to impact to actually make a difference. Baby Davis is the only one that really catches my eye and the cavs never really had any shot at picking him, they had traded their picks for that draft years earlier.
VOID!!!
You've neglected to learn anything from our newest champion, the Mavs.
They had key pieces in place for years and just kept adding and trying and eventually got there. Same story with the Lakers.
I have no doubt that if Lebron had kept his talent in Cleveland that they would have won a title in the next 5 years.
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