2011 NBA Draft News: Chad Ford's Latest Mock Draft, And More

There is a difference in salary commitment between the #1, #20, #40 and #60 picks, but it is less than the MLE ($5mm or so per season) and is not a huge burden if you miss.

What matters more than the position slot are the players themselves and the opportunity cost. If you are taking a flyer on a superstar prospect, what other players are you passing up. How does your prospect compare to these guys. What are their likely floors? ceilings? how much “developing” effort do they need on their part to become a solid starter? how much “developing” effort on their part do they need to reach their potential? how long should it take? can it occur in the first contract? where do you project them to be four/five years out when it is time to sign their second contract? How likely are they to develop? what type of development is needed (physical, skills, mental, emotional, bball IQ, etc), how do their intangibles compare (motor, effort, diet, desire, lifestyle, etc). What is available in free agency? How much do they cost? What do you already have on your roster? what are your other financial commitments? etc, etc, etc

You compare players to the other players available and have some semblance how their profile fits in historically. The actual draft slot is close to the bottom of the list, especially since they will be a relatively inexpensive investment. You take a flyer on potential when it is inexpensive if you are wrong and the opportunity cost is low.

In our situation, we need everything but a starting point guard. With so many other needs, it really does not make any sense in our situation to acquire another point guard. We have prospects at other positions to varying degrees but they all have their story.

Some examples::

For example, generally speaking in this draft the profiles go something like this: a few solid prospects none with superstar visibility. DW is the only likely solid starter with good visibility he will be good at a position of need for us. Then there are about a half dozen guys or so that might evolve into solid starters. Then there are about 25 guys are projected to be solid role players. Then there are the rest. That is my interpretation of this draft listening to several sources. If you disagree with that assessment, dont miss my bigger point. It is my base assumption.

So at #6, we are on the bubble. We might get a solid starter prospect (Jonas V, Biyombo, Kanter, etc) or we might be in solid role player land (Leonard, Singletone, etc). You need stars to win. So you should shoot for a star prospect when the opportunity cost is lowest. This is a great draft to take a flyer on a prospect. You are not passing up on a Shane Battier level talent to pick a Yi (both #6 picks I think).

Yi last year was inexpensive with potential. He was still on his rookie contract. He was dirt cheap. He was a good flyer. But for next season at the QO, he is not the same prospect. And is not worth the investment. I think most people recognize that.

Somewhere are the MLE level salary is where I draw the line on a prospect. It is also about what the #1 pick in the draft is paid. And why should any prospect be given more than what the top prospect of the year makes? It starts to really hurt your cap flexibility. Hence, Yi is no longer a prospect for us. He can be resigned cheap not at the level his contract calls for. AB should have been resigned the first time when it was inexpensive. But it was premature to resign him last summer. It was better to let him play out this season and see what happened. Ernie tried to save a couple million dollars per season by resigning him early and it will cost us many more millions for an overpaid backup on a team that needs starters.

JVM is the interesting one because he is on his last year. I dont want to get into all his potential. I know it. He ismt there yet bottom line. And he will command a salary next year- based on his potential- north of the MLE and probably in the $8-12mm range. That is too much for a prospect still developing after four years in the league. It is better to move on and build the pieces we need. And try to land him as a developed player at a crazy salary when we are adding that final piece to make a run- like Dallas did with Chandler.

Hence, in this draft, which is considered weak in top level prospects. I feel you make a move for one or some of them- because the opportunity cost is low. You are not passing up on a solid, well rounded starter. I would trade JVM for #2 and #20 if I could secure Williams only.

As for the rest, you have to kick the tires and figure out floor, ceilings, likelihood to develop, all the stuff I mentioned earlier.

at 6, Burks could be a star, biyombo is interesting, kanter could play some center, and jonas wiill likely develop into a solid center.

at 18 and 20- you could go with a role player on the wing (harris) or frontcourt (vucevic) or another solid prospect like Jeremy. He is reflective and interviewed well. I am tempted to do one of each, but it is hard to say without knowing who is available.

In this draft, I would look to make that trade and come out of this draft with the top overall prospect likely to develop at a need position (Williams), two upside prospects (a harris, burks, biyombo, tyler), and a role player/solid starter (kanter, jonas, singleton, vucevik, leonard, etc).