According to a feature Hollinger wrote in 2009:
On average, switching from the Euroleague to the NBA does the following to a player's pace-adjusted per-minute stats:
Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
Rebound rate increases by 18 percent
Assist rate increases by 31 percent
Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
Overall, player efficiency rating drops by 30 percent
So, what does that tell us about what we can expect from Vesely next year?
According to Draft Express, his pace-adjusted statistics per 40 minutes last year were as follows:
Games | Points | FG% | Rebounds | Assists | |
Partizan MTS | 14 | 13.7 | 51 | 5.1 | 1.6 |
Partizan | 26 | 17.4 | 61.1 | 7.4 | 2.2 |
Weighted Total | 40 | 16.11 | 57.6 | 6.6 | 2 |
Adjusted Total | 40 | 12.08 | 45.6 | 7.78 | 2.6 |
So, assuming everything goes normally as far as his development is concerned, we're looking at a guy who will most likely give us 12 points, almost 8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per 40 minutes next year (one caveat is that he drew fouls like crazy in the Euroleague and it's not inconceivable that his free throw percentage will rise back into the mid-60s, which would probably bump his scoring average up by a point or two per 40 minutes) while playing hard on defense and most likely chipping in 1 or 2 blocks and steals per game.
For a lottery pick in a fairly weak draft, this actually doesn't look bad. Air Wolf doesn't project to be a superstar, but these numbers and his defensive potential are fairly similar to Kenyon Martin's when he first came into the league with another long, athletic team that wound up being built around an elite point guard. Would you be satisfied with this level of production next year?
(Thanks to Draft Express for the numbers and John Hollinger and ESPN.com for the formulas, too!)