Who needs defense?
by Rook6980 on Jun 1, 2011 10:00 AM EDT
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PrintIn the 43 years since they started giving away NBA All-Defensive awards - 95% of the Championship teams included a player on their roster that was recently selected to the All-Defensive FIRST Team or All-Defensive SECOND team. That's 40 out of the last 42 Championship teams.
The team that wins the Championship this year, will make it 41 out of 43... as LeBron James was named to the All-Defensive 1st team this year, and Dwyane Wade was an All-Defensive 2nd team selection the last two years....AND the Dallas Mavericks have Tyson Chandler, who was named to the All-Defensive 2nd team this year.
41 out of 43..... That's a pretty high percentage... and what's more amazing is that the two teams that didn't have a "recent" All-Defensive selection, eventually DID. In other words, a player on their Championship roster eventually was selected to the All-Defensive team in a subsequent year.
Is it any wonder that if you look at the teams at the top of the standings over the last several seasons there are always teams with players named to the All-Defensive team? Miami (Wade, James), Lakers (Bryant), Celtics (Garnett, Rondo), Bulls (Joakim Noah).... Even some of the newer additions to the Playoff picture are following the pattern..... See OKC with Thabo Sefolosha and Memphis has Tony Allen.
Detroit when they won their Championship in 2005, had Ben Wallace and Tayshawn Prince. The Spurs at one point had BOTH Tim Duncan and David Robinson... and later Duncan and Bruce Bowen. During the three-peat years, the Lakers had Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal.
Everyone keeps saying it....... It was true 43 years ago... and it's still true today: Defense wins Championships.
If there is a "to do list" for the Wizards rebuild, the first two lines should read, IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER
1. Draft or trade for another Super Star to play along side John Wall
2. Draft or trade for a lock down defender... a potential All-Defensive 1st Team type player.
Drafting a guy like Chris Singleton, even though he may not be the most polished offensive player, and even though he may need to work on certain aspects of his game - is, in my opinion, just as important as getting John Wall a running mate. Of all the players in this draft, Singleton is the ONE player that has the combination of physical tools, skills and mental attitude that could make him an elite defender in the NBA.
Will he be elite? Will he be one of the 10 best defenders in the League? Will he ever be selected to the NBA All-Defensive Team? No one can know for sure... but in this draft, where there doesn't seem to be a Super Star to pair with John Wall, it might be in the Wizards best interest to look for that OTHER ingredient needed for a Championship roster: Defense.
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Welcome to Font Hell
The Wizards had Kirk Hinrich last year. Why didn’t they win the Championship??
Kirk wasn't that good
Statistically, Kirk did not get opposing point guards to play inefficiently. His Opponents PER was 16.9 (from 82 games) and he often played vs. backups. Even the much maligned defense of Crawford was better at 15.8. Rondo (1st team all defense) got his opponents to post a 12.8 and they’re mostly starters.
Of course, Wall’s opponents made a 19.8 which is awful, but he’s a rookie playing against starters.
by b - Mac on Jun 1, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Opponent PER is a horrible way to measure individual defense
Statistically, there isn’t a good way. But Opponent PER is distorted by switching assignments, primarily guarding a different position, and team defense issues. It’s interesting to look at (as in, huh – Bibby really had an OppPER 52.6 while putting up a PER of .5 in his Wiz career – WOW!), but unreliable. I especially wouldn’t use it to compare guys on different teams.
But if you are a poor defender and there is a cross match, the opposing team is more likely to go at that defender. And it will lower their PER.
Conversely, if you are a great defender and there is a cross match, then your superior defensive skills are less of an incentive to go after that player. So his PER will hold up better.
Therefore, in a cross match between a 3 and 4. They both offer an advantage- the three being guarded by the three and the four being guarded by the three. And if one of the defensive guys is a poor defender, that is who is likely to be challenged. He is likely to be scored upon and his defensive PER will reflect it.
Thus, I would argue that cross matches amplify defensive PER and spread them out. So if you are comparing two players with a significant difference in defensive PER, say 20 versus 15, than a valid conclusion can be drawn that one player is the better defender. And hence, if their defensive PER is similar, they really are similar in skills.
Now, I can understand if you have a problem with how defensive PER is calculated and whether it really is reflective. But I dont think cross matches are skewing the numbers, just the opposite in fact, they should amplify.
Bottom line, nothing beats a good set of eyes!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally agree with your bottom line
This is my issue – this used to happen on the Bulls all the time. Say you have Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon on the floor together. The lineup recognizes Kirk as the PG and Ben as the SG. But, the Bulls very frequently had Kirk guard the SG and Ben the PG (as noted above, this is incredibly simplified in a good team defense because of switching and help defense). So if the SG goes off on Kirk, the bad OppPER is credited to Ben, but if the PG goes off on Ben the bad OppPER goes on Kirk as the PG.
The play-your-counterpart assumption is necessary to keep the stat – at least for the freely available stuff – because it would take a lot of manpower to accurately track who is actually assigned to guard whom, especially considering it often changes mid-game. And I’d assume a good portion of the time the straight-up counterpart defensive assignment is close to accurate. But not always. So basically this isn’t the biggest issue with OppPER, imo, but it is there and it is more applicable to the “flexible” defenders in the league.
Incidentally, this is just a comment on OppPER. Kirk doesn’t show to his best defensively on a poor defensive team because his strength is playing to the team defensive concept and going hard. He’s not long enough or fast enough to be a shut-down individual defender. A team like the Wizards this past year is more likely to amplify his weaknesses than his strengths defensively. In sports in general, nothing can make a guy look as foolish as playing within the team concept when someone else blows the play.
lol love that last line
yeah- GMs control the budget and those stats were created to make their job easier- for a few bucks!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Great Argument - Glad I picked this fight :)
What do you think about Kirk’s defensive efficiency while on the wizards this year? Did he merit the Opp PER he got?
I only saw 3 or 4 games and I wasn’t blown away by Kirk’s individual D. I wonder if say, Nick Young’s Opp PER got worse when Kirk Left…. that’d be a pretty cool example in favor of Kirk as a team defender.
I cant answer that question. I did not watch him play enough. I live outside the area so had to grab the internet feeds when they were available.
But I was not blown away by Kirk’s D either. He would be better served with more lateral quickness.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Keep in mind that I'm a Kirk fan
But opponent production wise, I’d say average is fair. I just happen to think a lot of that is complicated by the roles he has been asked to play. He’s quicker and more athletic than a lot of people give him credit for, but certainly not elite. However, he gets caught in this need teams are setting forth to be flexible. Early on, recognizing that he would be guarding mostly 2s with Ben Gordon on the team, the Bulls asked him to bulk up over the offseason – I think he lost a step in that process. Throughout his career, he has been asked to guard 1s, 2s, and occasionally 3s, so I think he’s had to go for the best combo of size and quickness he can get. Had he been able to concentrate on only 1s or 2s, I believe he would have been better at either than going for the hybrid.
That said, I recognize the offset to this argument is that he’s been successful in the league largely because he’s a hybrid and teams like the flexibility. I can certainly see the argument that whatever incremental increase in defense quality by focusing on a single position would be offset by the loss in flexibility to adequately guard both.
So I guess from my perspective it sort of comes down to Kirk sacrificing some of what he does best or could do better to play the role the team needs him in. I suspect he worked really hard while with the Wiz at trying to help the team better run the team offense and defense. I don’t think that was exactly a successful endeavor with the rest of the team. So bottom line, not only is he a better defender in a team sense than an individual sense to start with, but continuing to try to play within a team concept rather than ditching that to just play his best individual defense further depresses his defensive quality.
I don’t think looking at Nick’s stats post-trade would help much with the injury plus all the chaos of sorting out a lineup. 82games used to put out the player-pair stuff, but I haven’t seen it this year.
So long as you can score when the other team ramps its defense up
it is that combination- not just the defense.
Great post!!!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:43 AM EDT reply actions
Really striking statistic, Rook.
Thanks for researching this. I sure hope Ernie (or Ted, more likely) peruses BF.
Do you know the comparable stats for the All NBA teams? that is the comparable offensive stat.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:49 AM EDT reply actions
Obviously
a high percentage of the Championship teams also had an All-NBA 1st Team selection… sometimes more than one… I read somewhere that 90% of all Championship teams in the last 50 years included a player (or two) that was selected to the All-NBA 1st Team within like the last 3 or 4 years…..
Hopefully, John Wall is our All-NBA 1st Team star…
Hopefully, Ted Leonsis and Ernie Grunfeld can get another Super Star to run with John.
So – yes, having a Super Star (All-NBA 1st team) on your team is almost imperative to winning a Championship – but so is having that defensive stopper…. You really need BOTH.
So if John Wall never really becomes an elite defender… and whoever the Wizards get to be the Second star on the team doesn’t either – then the Wizards need to get a Bruce Bowen type player… or guy like Shane Battier, or Ron Artest….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
This is why I hope we can get Singleton
Even though this is a weak draft, Singleton is an elite defensive talent. We most likely won’t get a superstar in this draft, but if we draft Singleton, if fills a need for us, and not many other players could fill this need the way Singleton could.
Singleton
Singleton played so well versus Jordan Hamilton in their Golden State workout that he went looking for former Seminole Al Thornton to give him a challenge. Thornton was not to be found. (according to Hoopshype.com/rumors)
I'd Take Biyombo
If I’m going the defensive route with the draft I’d prefer to have the 6’9" PF/C with a 7’7" wingspan than a wing player, purely based off of scarcity. There’s many more good wing defenders in this league then there are lockdown bigs.
Notice what you said though...
You said “There’s many more good wing defenders in this league then there are lockdown bigs.”
First, who’s to say Biyombo is a lockdown big, we barely know anything about him.
Second, why are you comparing “good wing defender” to “lockdown big”? Why the sudden jump in ability from one position to the other. What if I were to say, there are less “lockdown wing defenders” than there are “good defending big men.” Why not instead assume the best or middle from both players instead of the best from one, and the average from the other?
And I honestly believe if Javale had good defenders around him, he would a lot better on defense. It’s easier to guard the middle when you have guys already making it tough on the ball handler than it is to guard a man charging at you and having to worry about your man.
?
Are you denying that there are more plus wing defenders then bigs?
Not exactly
Although the problem Bigs have nowadays is not exactly defense, it’s more so offense.
What I am saying though is that having an elite wing defender can help just as much as having an elite defensive big man (example being the grizzlies). And I am saying having said player will make your bigs have less pressure and most likely play better defense themselves (example again being the grizzlies).
And I am also saying that Bismack is a huge gamble since no one really knows anything about him. Physical measures don’t help when you don’t have talent. Kevin Seraphin can barely get minutes on this team, and we knew more about him going into last draft… just saying.
an elite wing defender can help just as much as having an elite defensive big man
I dont agree with this statement but understand your point. there is value, but they are not comparable:
1- the best any defender can do is hold their opponent to zero points. If that happens, the big men will out rebound the perimeter player which makes them more valuable.
2- the expectancy ratio in the NBA for scoring- even with the newer rules to spread out the game- still favor scoring in the paint and the three point shot. That means, you have a better chance of coming away with points the closer you are to the basket when you shoot.
Perimeter players are imp in the NBA. You will have a really hard time winning a championship if you dont have an all star on the perimeter, if not impossible. But the game is still played inside out. And you need an all star in the front court to win it still.
The Mavs are about as good a perimeter scoring team that we see. And even they are going to lose this series. It is not just about Miami’s defense. They arent rebounding enough and are giving Miami too many second shot opps.
Draft talent notwithstanding, the best complement to JW is a front court player, not another perimeter all star. Teams will just overplay the perimeter. The third super star can be on the perimeter though =) Though I would like to see our best players at 1-3-5. James is so valuable not only because he is the best player, he can play both the front and back court both offensively and defensively.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
correction
this sentance came out wrong
the expectancy ratio in the NBA for scoring- even with the newer rules to spread out the game- still favor scoring in the paint and the three point shot.
should read
the expectancy ratio in the NBA for scoring- even with the newer rules to spread out the game and the three point shot- still favor scoring in the paint .
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
So much sillyness here
Let’s pretend holding your opponent to 0 points is a reasonable way to judge this, and makes sense. If your SF holds Durant to 0 points and grabs two rebounds, while your PF holds Ibaka to 0 points, and grabs 12 rebounds, who had the better defensive game? There are way more perimeter scoring threats in the NBA than bigs. Few teams have a big man that they run their offense through, I count 6 NBA teams that have a big guy that they could run their offense through(that is even counting a team like NY, that has a great scoring big man, but we know who the #1 option is, he is a perimeter player). And that is rarely an entire gameplan for them. That leaves 24-ish teams that run their offense through a perimeter player. And as we know, there are a plethora of PG’s and SF’s in this league that are the core of their team’s offense.
Different subject, don’t you think if Dallas loses the series, it could be because they have the two best players on the planet(they happen to be perimeter players, might I add)?
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 1, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
“…who had the better defensive game?”
I said he is more valuable, not a better defender. You can not get better than zero as you implied.
I think there are more than six teams that score the majority of their points in the paint? Regardless, you missed my point which is when you control the paint meaningfully on offense and defense, you will win a seven games series nine times out of ten. Of course the game is stretched out to the perimeter, they changed the rules to facilitate that. But it is still important. Can you think of a team with only one star that wins more games than Orlando with as much crappy talent that surrounds him as Dwight has?
No question Miami has two of the top five players. And a really complementary, pretty good third piece. I think Dallas can win, but they have to play harder, smarter, scrap for loose balls and REBOUND a lot better. It will take everything they have to win. But Miami sports a very weak supporting cast. They will not beat you if you force them to and pressure them a little. The problem I have with winning with Dirk is that he is so bad defensively, especially in the paint. And LeBron is on another planet. He can legitimately guard nearly all five positions. And he is both a perimeter beast and solid in the post. He comes closer to Magic Johnson than any other player I have seen since Magic. So Miami will always match up tough. So yes, I think what you said is one fair statement. I think there are others. In this playoffs right now, Miami could lose most easily to a team that can dominate AND score inside. Someone with D Howard and a real team surrounding him. Miami will add better role players, esp at point guard. So inside will probably remain their achilles heel.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Uhhhhh yeah, you can
If my guy holds Durant to 6 points on 2- 25 shooting, while your guy holds Dwight Howard to 0 points, on 0-6 shooting, my guy had a better game. And yes better = more valuable. Same thing as far as this is concerned…
I think there are more than six teams that score the majority of their points in the paint?
That is absolutely not what the discussion was. I can’t really address the topic when we make a leap like that.
Derrick Rose scores in the paint, and he is not a big guy. So I don’t know where that proves that big men are more valuable defenders than perimeter players. If you have a guy guarding him(on the perimeter) and doesn’t let him penetrate then he is rendered much more useless. Ask Miami.
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 1, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
And Howard had 20 boards and Durant has 4. And my guy scores 20 points, and your guy scores 4. My guy had the better game and is more valuable. You need more information than what you provided unless you just want to say he had a better defensive game. And I dont think you can even say that because your guy could have given up 5 offensive rebounds which led to 10 points and my guy didnt.
That is absolutely not what the discussion was. I can’t really address the topic when we make a leap like that.
It is exactly what I was talking about- the value of front court versus perimeter defense. you measure it by the number of points given up in the the paint versus the perimeter. this game is about scoring and stopping people from scoring. and i was confident you knew that more rebounds come from the PF/C guys than the PG/SG- which falls under the stopping people from scoring category.
reg your derrick rose comment. a perimeter player has two people to beat to score at the rim- the guy on the perimeter and guarding the rim. so what is your point? you noted what i noted which is that is exactly what makes lebron james so special! yeah, if singleton can be lebron, lets grab him. i dont think he falls to six if that were the case.
but if you are done. that’s cool.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
No
If Derrick Rose is allowed to penetrate all day, by his perimeter defender, there is often nothing a Center can do. IPenetration kills a defense. Unless you actually are Dwight Howard, it is hard to account for the PG who just beat his man rushing at you, your own guy who you are trying to not allow to score, AND the rebound if somebody misses. A center is important to anchor a defense, but relying on your center to make up your defense, doesn’t work for anybody. Not even Orlando and Dwight Howard.
And my point is that you can’t just matter-of-factly say that a big man is more important than a perimeter defender. There are very few dominant scoring big men. Almost none in the NBA today. Even the great ones are often perimeter oriented, Dirk, Kevin Love… But the perimeter scoring threats in this league…. Shewww… I mean, should I do the list by position or alphabetical or what??? Westbrook, Rose Durant, Carmelo, James & Wade, Rondo, Joe Johnson, Chris Paul, Derron Williams, even Kyrie Irving and the up-coming class of PG’s. You get a guy that can really bother those guys defensively and you disrupt the other teams entire game plan. These are guys that we are going to be worrying about for years.
That is really the sum of my argument. A post defender gets to be tested occasionally, while a perimeter defender gets tested nearly every single night in this league.
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 1, 2011 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I considered your point and respectfully disagree. I think you have merit but the ultimate conclusion is off based on my thirty years of basketball experience (I remember Dr J and Bob McAdoo played!)
I have watched too much basketball over too many years to know that the game is still played from the inside out. If you cant control the paint, you will lose more often that not because you will get crushed on the boards (reference Dallas). There is a scarcity value to a top center. If I had a top two-way PF or C (and there are few of them), there are a dozen point guards I could pare him with.
More to the point, if we played GM and were asked to build a team from scratch, Dwight Howard would be a top 2 pick with most GMs. And the other is LeBron James who can do it all on the perimeter and inside, both offensively and defensively.
Once you have a perimeter all star- and we have one legit prospect- the next piece to add is a front court player. After that, you can add another superstar, but you are flexible in whether he plays the post or on the perimeter or some hybrid talent.
So I agree to disagree. Given we have John Wall, the next top prospect piece I would add would be a legit front court low lottery prospect, not a role playing defensive SF who can not create much on his own and shoots only OK. I am sure he will improve his shot. And I like looking to make a move to nab Singleton for all the reasons you mentioned too. But not as a substitute for a front court player. This team needs one for ALL so many reasons. I am cool if you argue that a top front court prospect is not attainable for us and he is a consolation pick, but not as a primary strategy.
I dont disagree that what you are saying is very important though =)
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I probably would have agreed with the point a year ago to be honest.
I have always felt that the 1-2 punch, inside-out style is the way to play basketball.
But this is a different NBA. I am all for getting good big men, but I think all we need is a stable of solid big men. Hopefully Vale, Blatche, and Booker are a good chunk of our future frontcourt. But I think this team NEEDS a star at SF, to ever be a top tier team. It’s what my gut tells me, at the least. Get that guy and the rest really can fall into place.
Also, I think a great wing player would feed/benefit off of, and benefit Wall himself, for the next 10 years, better than a big guy that will often be running behind the play.
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 1, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize this is not exactly the standard mindset.
It is a new thing coming around. But I am more worried about Lebron-Wade, Westbrook-Durant, Paul/Williams-Carmelo?, and the combos that are sure to follow these guys.
This thing is more than a blip, it’s probably going to become a trend in this league. And Wall-Vesely really can’t shake a stick at those guys.
This really floated away from the defense topic we were talking about earlier, but so be it….
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 1, 2011 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah- but we both agree that defense is essential. we differ only on where our next step should be. but i happen to think that jonas is a legitimate front court prospect- with the caveat that i have been very limited in what i have seen. still, he is rated top three by ford and draft express for a reason.
i am less worried about most of those guys than you. by the time we are ready to even compete for a conf championship- lebron, wade, carmelo, stoudemire, etc will be thirty or in their thirties when wall is hitting his prime. so it might take an extra year or two but those guys will deteriorate with age during JW’s prime.
JW is like 20, so he is competing with rose, durant, westbrook, and other stars plus or minus three years from his age. and chicago will have to rebuild. and i dont think westbrook and durant will be on the same team in five years unless WB changes his attitude. he thinks he is a better player than durant right now (which is not the case) and it affects his play (not involving him enough in the offense during crucial moments, etc). maybe he matures, but he has to mature to keep that team together. and OKC will not be able to keep all that talent. and they wont win it if they keep their three best players because they all play 1-3 and will get killed on the boards. Their best team long term includes Ibaka and losing either WB or Harden and durant needs to develop a post game. he is too weak. he has to develop into more of a hybrid (which he will prob do and become unstoppable offensively). and ibaka has a lot of development ahead of him
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with a lot of what you just said. Ideally, I would like to see our stars at 1(since he is already there), 3 and 4 or 5- one dedicated star on the perimeter, one in the paint, and a hybrid.
Every championship team I can think of has had something similar. Some have it a the 1 others have it at the 2. I cant think of one where it is both because a hybrid really helps your matchups.
You can even go 2-4-5 (LAL)
MIA- 2-3-4 (and james could be a superstar at multiple positions)
CHI (which needs another player- because they dont have a hybrid (Boozer cant stretch the floor far enough and it showed. Plus they only have one shot creator which we did not discuss but also is needed) 1-4-5
BOS 1-2-3-4
…etc
DAL is a little different but they dont beat the LAL if gasol did not get dumped by his ex-girlfriend. i give them a 4 with a solid supporting cast across the board. i hope they win though, but they wont
I just dont think that Singleton is that star player. And he can not create his own shot. So it puts a lot of pressure to find that front court superstar. Most of them dont play D. I think it is easier to build the other way IF you have an opportunity to grab that guy. Having said that, it appears Singleton is 2/3 of the way there. You would need another near star at the 2 or other front court position to offset his lack of shot creation. I dont think it is JC.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
at the end of the day, they all have to play D. you want three shot creators, preferably one on the perimeter, one inside, and one that can do both (unless you have shaq).
as an aside, that is where i differ in opinion from the game has changed folks. it hasnt changed. what you see today is a reflection of the fact you dont have a shaq or duncan out there right now. i dont think the game has evolved. i think that super star is absent in the league right now. howard will get there probably. regardless, one will re-appear again- probably more than one at once!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
and everyone will scramble to get a legit big. They take years to develop. You have to grab a legitimate 2 way front court prospect whenever you see one, unless you already have one.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Enes Kanter sure isnt the next Shaq or Duncan
and neither is Jonas. So just how critical is it really that we get either one of those guys?
He doesn’t need to be. My point with them was if you have someone like that, you have a lot more flexibility in how you create your team.
He needs to be a very solid prospect. Someone that can defend the paint, alter (not necessary block) shots, clear the boards, make free throws, and create his own shot inside. A plus if he can develop an outside shot, which in his case, I think is likely.
All of that won’t come at once. But that is the player he has to turn into to before his first contract expires to be what I am referencing. If he is not that prospect. Singleton is ok. I certainly wont cry if we get him like I would with Vesely lol But grabbing a front court player that can legitimately challenge JVM for playing time will really help us develop McGee more quickly. And I am not giving up on JVM by that strategy. It is a timely developing him. You can always trade a legit big for something tangible if we run into the problem of too many good centers to keep. I’ve given up on Blatche as anything more than a reserve. I hope he proves me wrong.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I'm onboard with this.
In today’s nba it seems having guys who can slow penetration and close out on shooters is now more important than having a big post-defender. Look at what LeDouche has been doing defensively recently, a player that size can be your shutdown corner. A player like Singleton is going to be able to harass guards trying to drive while also contesting midrange and long Js all over the court. That is critical!
Thinking back to our toilet bowl season, what happened more, Javale demolished in the post by a bigger player or an opposing guard easily penetrating into the paint for a layup? I would say it was much, much more the latter and that defense now has to be geared towards slowing the new crop of attacking PGs while also closing out on shooters. There just isnt enough traditional post-play anymore to make stopping it the team’s #1 priority…
I remember...
Many games this season where average “bigs” dominated the Wizards inside presence (or sometimes lack thereof). The Wizards were the 4th worst team regarding giving up rebounds to their opponents last season. Also last season the team had the 4th highest points against average in the league and the 5th highest FG% allowed. Many of these statistics prove that the Wizards had severe defensive issues, especially when it comes to giving up rebounds and allowing a high shooting percentage, which thus leads to allowing to many points to their opponents. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of Singleton’s, however if the focus is on defense, the player that should be targeted IMO is Biyombo based off the statistical analysis, not to mention that none of the SF’s in this class look to be the long term solutions on the wing, while a Blatche, McGee, Biyombo trio seems like a good mix of talents between the three of them.
and it supports what I am saying..shitty front court play leads to high fg%, a lot of points scored and a bad record. Perimeter teams are more streaky. Of course, they can go on hot streaks, but for four 7 game playoff series??? very unlikely
perimeter play is very important, dont get me wrong. but the statements i read about this new NBA and this tremendous shift to the perimeter makes inside irrelevant is not a belief i support.
In fact, the premise behind it is a point guard league is that they can drive, get closer to the basket and create good shots- some will be kick backs but many will be pull ups in the lane or flat out taking it to the rim. If not, they would say it is a SG league, which is not the case.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you explain Dallas and Miami in the Finals?
They are perimeter teams. How do you explain Memphis being beaten by OkC? Durant is a jumpshooter more than anything else, while Memphis had both ZRandolph and MGasol.
Frontcourt defense is critical, but inside scoring would appear to no longer be such a necessity as we can see from today’s best teams.
Dallas is in the finals bec the Lakers blew it. They collapsed uncharacteristically. That is why there is so much hoopla around them. It isnt just that they lost a series.They are a better team and would win two out of three SERIES this year. Gasol did not show up. I heard he had girlfriend issues and was distracted.
MEM- Randolph did not show up for a couple games that series. And MEM is too young still. They just broke out in the playoffs. I am having trouble remembering that series but I think I remember MEM having a hard time running their offense the second half of the fourth quarter. So Conley needs to improve or they need an upgrade. I havent seen Gay play enough to know if that is a solution. But MEM never had what I said you need- they lacked the star power on the perimeter for sure.
MIA is the best team in the league during these playoffs and they are playing dallas which is a solid but not normally nba championship level team If you shut down Nowitzki, you shut down dallas. they contained dirk and dallas scored 84 points, which is not enough. Dallas did not play hard enough and really hurts themselves on the boards. MIA can beat them with just James and Wade. they dont need bosh for this series, but he helps on defense. And dallas can not consistently score in the paint. so MIA doesnt need much interior defense. MIA would have a hard time against a good two way center. when they lose, it will be by losing in the paint. i know they have world class defenders on the perimeter. but they’re weakness is inside. haslem can not guard a true center.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i am not dismissing the importance of perimeter defense. it is a crucial ingredient.
but miami scores a lot of points in the paint. wade, bosh, and lebron all do. i dont think they are as perimeter based on offense as you might. they make a lot of clutch perimeter shots that are memorable. but they are driving and getting to the line a lot.-when they are not dunking or shooting ten footers. i wouldnt be surprised to learn two thirds of the big three’s point total comes in the paint area. i cant prove that though.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
@les boulez bomber.......but everyone else is welcome to read also!!! Except kids. Some parts include vulgarity. Parental guidance is advised.
Before you read this: Are you serious?
It isnt just that they lost a series.They are a better team and would win two out of three SERIES this year.
Let’s keep it 10000000 here…The Lakers didn’t just “blow it”…they lost the series because Dallas is a better team.
You think the Lakers could win the best-of-21 games with the Mavs?…well ynow what dude, they couldnt win a best of 7….
I could play that game all day…it’d be like me saying “hey, ynow what? the wizards are a much better team than they showed over those 82 games. if the NBA played two more seasons, and there was 246 games instead of 82, the Wizards would be a winning team!!!” Andray Blatche gets better as the season goes along and is always playing his best ball at the end of the season…imagine if we didn’t stop at 82 games like im saying we shouldnt! he would be just starting to build up steam a 3rd into the season!.. by the second half of a 246 game season he would be a legitimate MVP canididate!"
I exaggerated a little bit to make my point…but it’s the same concept. And I know you aren’t going to agree with me because you think the Lakers had some kind of epic meltdown like never before seen…they played their worst basketball in 50 years during that series…They would’ve beaten the Mavs at any other time..the Mavs basically won the lottery in your eyes…they lucked out…They had a 1 in a billion chance to win that series, but by the grace of Basketball OLYMPUS THEY DID IT! THEY DID IT!
Ok, that was too obnoxious. I apologize. Thanks for your thoughts on that series. It inspired me to spend 5 minutes writing a quick, yet seemingly well thought out response.
I wrote the following part while drunk(I still am, bwhaahahh)..so I just want to tell you the next part is very funny but im sure most of you will just find it offensive…but I wanted to post it anyway:
**********************************
To say the Lakers “would win two out of three SERIES this year”….if you really believe that, im baffled beyond belief…It’s unimaginable for me to even fathom that someone could really have their head that far up Kobe Bryant’s ass…Damn, I mean at that point it’s not just the head in there…I’d say maybe the right arm, and maybe even some foot action goin on…
additional note:This becomes an extended church analogy to prove a pointfor no reason at all. I think is pretty damn funny. Please read and comment on if you like/dislike it. I might turn it into a fanpost.
Where has Phil Jackson been during all this…he’s the one who’s supposed to pull your head out during times like these. It’s his job to make sure Kobe isn’t mentioned in the same breath as the NBA’s own Father of the Holy Trinity, Micheal Jordan.
You should already know who has been anointed the Chosen One…none other that Lebron James. I don’t like him either, but the NBA has chosen him to be the Son.
Right now I’d say Lebron has a cross on his back and about a 4th of the way up to the top. The question is…even with his special ability to temporarily blind referees while he takes more than the allotted amount of steps allowed while not dribbling a basketball…will he make it to the top with the help of D-Wade and Bosh while amidst the persecution of the media? Or will he end up like T-Mac, Vince Carter, Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, and other Micheal impersonators before them?
What I think is that even if LeBron wins 6 championships…he still wont be mentioned with Micheal. That’s right, even if he reaches the peak, most of the world is staying Jewish. There might be some that believe his is the Chosen One and convert…but for the most part I think the world will probably just consider him a top-5 player aka prophet in this analogy.
Questions I know you are dying to ask:
-Who is Kobe in all of this? Duh, he’s Mohammed, another prophet…however he has a larger following and a good number of his followers are extremists.
-Who is the Ghost in the Holy Trinity? Cmon now…take a guess…this one is easy. “Magic Johnson”?? No, thats wrong. “Larry Bird”?? NO! Wrong again. Dude, its obviously Earl The Goat Manigault. Kareem Abdul Jabeer(who has no parallel character in this analogy, as he is 2,167 years old and lived during those ancient times!!!) even said he was the G.O.A.T….but fame and glory were never meant to be his…
-DWade in this analogy is John, the Apostle who helps Jesus carry the cross…Chris Rupaul Bosh is Mary Magdalene…the former prostitute who some historians think Jesus was boning. Or maybe she was riding it. Either way, Jesus’ and Mary’s relationship is eerily similar to Bosh and Bron’s. It is thought that Bosh often takes it in the ass from Lebron…but there is no proof.
-The Devil is LA Clippers owner Donald Sterling. No, I’m serious this time. He’s the devil, and not just in my imaginary NBA Bible land. How else is such a disgusting creature a wealthy man…I firmly believe his insides have already rotted and he is a walking pile of rotting shit.
-David Stern is…the Pope?
-Judas is Dan Gilbert…he sold Lebron under the table to the Heat for $2,500, a Miami timeshare, a 2005 Chrysler Seabring convertible, a lifetime supply of Jagermiester, and 3 bootlegged DVD’s of America’s Funniest Home Videos(Two of them are the same episode, however one of them is dubbed in spanish) After selling LeBron, he became so depressed that he had these delusions and started to think the Cavaliers could actually play competitive basketball without LeBron James. He even guaranteed that Cleveland will win a title before the Heat….HA! Hey Dan Gilbert, if you are reading this please answer this question…What the FUCK are you smoking??? And how is that guarantee going? HA!
End of Nba bible analogy
That was a long ass post…now i have to write an essay for my summer English class…FCUK! :p
Sometimes I get really wierd ideas when im high
I’m glad I was able to share this one. I’m guessing it’s painfully obvious that my whole NBA-religion analogy/rant was the result of mind-altering substances.
I think you have issues
But Kareem is definitely Methuselah.
by Jim America on Jun 2, 2011 8:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
BTW dallas-LAL played a highly intense game in April. it definitely featured playoff intensity. LA blew them apart. Too big, too strong inside.
The team that can get easier shots usually wins. And they LAL did against Dallas that game.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
So you're saying we should fire Flip now and get it over with?
Watching this series will lend weight to that view, the Mavs play EXACTLY how Flip would coach them. Of course there is the small issue of TALENT….but wow, the Heat are looking like one of the best defensive squads in a long time and the bottomline (imho) is that though almost every coach talks defense, unless you have one who makes it the #1 priority you are probably headed in wrong direction
Tell that to Phil Jackson...
I believe if you have a team of good defenders, the team will play good defense period. When Flip coached the Wolves and Pistons, they had good defense, now the Wizards have bad defense. Is it the coach, or the players? Is it Flip not getting through to the Wizards, or the fact that the Wolves and Pistons had great defenders on the team?
Let’s go back even further to Eddie Jordan. He preached defense all the time, but when you have Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison playing 40+ minutes, how much can you really get out of the team on that end? (And remember, Randy Ayers is now an assistant coach for the hornets, one of the best defending teams in the NBA)
I think we should let Flip finish out his contract and from there we can decide if we need to go another route, or let him continue being the coach of this team.
by gray16 on Jun 1, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Flip talks all sorts of blah blah blah about defense
but then he runs a lame zone that no one likes and ignores Dray not bothering to defend whenever he doesnt feel like it. Almost every coach talks defense, but in the end coaches are generally defense-first guys or they arent imo.
and btw I dont really think we should fire Flip now
but we’re never going to have the sort of defense everyone craves with him as coach.
on the other hand, maybe we will have a very good offense and a decent defense
The hole in this logic is that all-defensive team selections are reputation based
And tend to go to players on winning teams even if they are not merited. Kobe Bryant, for instance.
by Mike Prada on Jun 1, 2011 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Exactly
Javale McGee got votes for Defensive Player of the Year this season. As Prada points out, Kobe continues to make All-Defense teams even though advanced stats and the eye test show that he’s about average defensively. Chris Paul was 2nd team this season, primarily because he steals the ball. Larry Hughes was a good defender that season he led the league in steals in DC, but All-Defense? Nah.
All-Defense gets it right a lot of the time, but also wrong enough times to matter.
Plus, there’s no All-Offense award. If we went back and did a retro All-Offense team, we’d probably find that championship teams have about the same number of guys on that list as the All-Defense.
by TheSecretWeapon on Jun 1, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
disagree here
I think Mcgee getting a couple DOY votes is okay. He was a great shot blocker most of the season a real deterrent on a team full of horrible perimeter defenders.
Kobe is and has always been an excellent defender he hardly ever gets blown up by anyone. and the eye test you speak of bodes very well he seems to take on pg’s and manages to step on their games I can remember him closing off Billups in the Nuggets series 2 years ago and Westbrook last season to help the lakers win.
all defense is voted by coaches who comb through tape of game after game not sure why they would be taken by rep when they break down possesions and see who is actualy competing and playing defense on every possesion.
to me its the most legit award much more so than the media driven knee jerk of MVP voting. who awarded Nash with 2 1 more than both Shaq and Kobe 2 alltime great players.
by jazzy1 on Jun 1, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I think Mcgee getting a couple DOY votes is okay. He was a great shot blocker most of the season a real deterrent on a team full of horrible perimeter defenders.
I dont think so…when a player has serious issues covering anyone with offensive talent at his own position, he shouldn’t be considered for DPOY…
by tw10 on Jun 2, 2011 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Absolutely
This is complete circular reasoning. There have been 0% all-defensive players on teams with losing records over the last several years. You can’t tell me that there’s no losing team with a top 10 defensive player on it. That’s ludicrous, but that’s how these selections are made.
"Be patient or be a Heat fan" - MR
by steadyhand on Jun 1, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ok -= throw out the awards...
Show me a Championship team that didn’t have a legitimate LOCK DOWN defender in the line up….
THAT’s the point I was making – I wasn’t trying to cloud the issue with lots of talk about who deserves an award and who doesn’t. And I wasn’t trying to imply that just because you have one of those players, you’re automatically a contender (see: Larry Hughes, Wizards circa 2005)…
From the Bulls with Rodman and Jordan, to the Spurs with Duncan and Bowen – EVERY team had at least one player with an elite defender. Shaq in his prime. Ben Wallace. Kevin Garnett.
And Mike, they don’t NECESSARILY have to be “great two-way players” either… No one would consider Bruce Bowen, or Horace Grant or Ben Wallace “great” offensive players. But they were great defenders.
Having an elite defender (or two) is a critical component to building a Championship team… and just as important as having a Super Star player or two (or three) on the team….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I agree with you completely on the importance of defense. Did you hear Toronto fired their coach to hire a coach that specializes in defense?
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
You need a lockdown defender
To win a series much less a championship. Memphis loses without Battier.
by Jim America on Jun 2, 2011 9:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes- but there is more scarcity value in top front court two-way players than perimeter defenders. If you have a chance at one, you find it.
Name one team that won a championship by drafting its role players first then went out and got multiple superstars- ever!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
you get it not find it. It is valid if you dont think one is available this draft. But I disagree with you if you think one is out there and can be acquired reasonably and you dont get him.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Sooooo
you think a guy like MJ had more value than Battier? Duh. What’s your point?
I have a lower threshold than MJ. You exagerrated to make your point. A Marc Gasol type is good enough
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you think MGasol is good defensively?
IMHO he’s not nearly as good defensively as say Perkins, Ibaka, Chandler…He’s much more of an offensive player
I think he's outstanding defensively
Especially as a help defender – watch him off the ball and see how he is telling everyone where to go with their pick and roll coverage.
they were 2nd worst in the league for opponents points in the paint in '09
imo, their improved defense this year was all tony allen and battier…gasol and zbo are subpar defensively IMHO
Battier was on the team for half the season and TA only started half the year
Again, watch Gasol off the ball and notice how precise he is with p&r coverage.
Is Ibaka a center to you? The other two are defensive specialist at C.
It always depends on the matchup. He is a big bodied center and that is what he can defend against. I haven’t watched MG enough. He probably is not a lock down Center but OKC’s strength is not low post scoring. Combined with his other skills, he is a solid center in the league. He can probably hold down the post well enough. He needs to be complemented with a good 4; he is not that good!
Maybe he was a bad example. My point was he doesnt need to be an superstar prospect; a near all star that plays both ways, has good bball IQ and plays hard is good enough for me.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
So we should just skip this draft.
Let’s not draft anybody, because there are no superstars available. No point in taking a guy that could fill a role first. So just don’t take anybody.
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 2, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I think when you take the time to read my body of work on this post you will realize that is not what I am saying
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
In fairness to returnofswagger
most of your posts read like Unabomber manifestos.
dont be a jerk jim. dont read them. you might hurt somebody
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Awww...and I had such high hopes for us
seriously…you ramble and rant…it’s hard to follow. And to your suggestion, I often don’t read them because of that. I don’t think you are a fool or anything…just an overly passionate fan that needs to learn how to synthesize their argument. If that makes me a jerk…well…I’ve been accused of worse.
by Jim America on Jun 2, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well that reply doesnt! I have been too wordy. I wont have as much free time soon =)
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I was going to say it
But you did, so…. Jerk!
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 2, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Really, the lesson is you need great two-way players
by Mike Prada on Jun 1, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
You see the common thread – which is that the All-NBA defensive players are often superstar type players. Kobe. LeBron. Wade. These aren’t defensive specialists per se. Chandler to a certain extent is, but the Mavs get nowhere without Nowitzki. And Chandler alone was not good enough to carry past teams to success (i.e. Hornets, Bulls, Bobcats). Drafting pure defensive players doesn’t win championships. Drafting superstars and surrounding them with defensive players might (although Mike Miller or Mike Bibbt are not exactly carrying the defensive load). Ultimately you need a couple of superstars. Right now the Wizards have 1. And hopefully that one can also become a great defender. Else the team may never go anywhere.
The real lesson
is to get in to the FA market and start blowing money because this team is not going to draft their way to the top.
by hambonejackson on Jun 1, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
ding-ding-ding
Ted’s gotta open up that wallet.
In due time
Ted can throw as much money as he wants around, but guys aren’t coming here just yet. Because other owners with just as much money have much better situations to offer to the same free agents.
And as we know, in the NBA, paying a player you want more than anybody else will doesn’t usually work out. Overpaying digs you into a hole and can set a team back. Once we show we are competent, and get one more legit NBA star-caliber player in here, then things will get much easier as far as FA’s go.
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 1, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope Nic Batum is on their radar
Restricted FA in ‘12 and he’ll only be 23…that’s the kind of guy I wouldnt mind overpaying a little bit to snag. I would also imagine (or dream) that our sorriness wouldnt affect the decision making as much for young guys who still see $$$ moreso than rings.
I hope we have won the 2012 lottery by then
and are targeting a guy with way more potential than Batum. I don’t really like the idea of a Batum-James matchup in a playoff series.
Ohhh my God.
Where is my FACE? I CANT FEEL MY FACE!!!
by returnofswagger on Jun 1, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
We won 23 games
And we were 28th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. We just need better players. If that’s Singleton, fine. But if Valanciunas looks like a better, just more offensive-minded player, we can’t just go with the better defender on general principle. Then you end up like the Bucks and I can’t take watching a team that boring every night if we’re not contenders (OK, I can but I’d prefer not to).
by Scizzy on Jun 1, 2011 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with the take
I have Singleton squarely at the top of my list for 6 right now followed closely by Biyombo. But we gotta do due dilligence and make sure we scout everyone pretty well before reaching for a need situation over much better talent. You don’t draft Bruce Bowen at 6 in any draft. But if he’s Pippen you do all day long.
Rook's got me dreaming.
2011 – Somehow someway washington ends up with enes kanter and chris singleton.
2012 – Washington starts to compete behind the swag of their ruthless leader. John Wall earns an all-star bid and puts up an amazing 18-9-4 year. Kanter and Singleton show signs of promise. Prompting ernie to get rid of struggling players like blatche, picking up expirings, picks and prospects, and getting ready for free agency. Washington enters the playoffs at a low seed, going against the aging boston celtics. They throw their youth and swag around pushing the celtics to 7 games, but come up short.
2013 – ESPN BREAKING NEWS. Ted Leonsis woos dwight howard to sign a 5 year multi-million dollar deal with washington. Hopefully the capitals will have won the cup the previous year and ted will convince dwight that DC is indeed, a championship city. Washington goes on a tear, competing neck and neck with miami for the best team in the eastern conference. Nick Young has finally become what flip had envisioned him to be, the perfect off-ball sg. Kanter is blossoming into a legitimate 2 way threat. Singleton is developing into a lock-down defender and earns nba all-defensive 2nd team. John Wall learns how to utilize his frame and makes the nba all-defensive 1st team while dwight howard picks up another DPOY to add to his collection. Suddenly fans and analyst the world over recognize that miami has a serious threat to contend with in the eastern conference.
I pretty much pine over this shit on a daily basis. ugh.
Geting it done.
A great man-to-man defender is not a big need
We have plenty of guys with first rate man-to-man defense tools. What we need are guys to catalyze the team defense.
Instead of a lock down man defender, we need to add rebounding, effort, and bball IQ.
We should be willing to sacrifice something in the man-to-man defense traits of athleticism, strength, and length and instead look for guys with the knack for rebounding, an infectious high effort level, and the bball IQ to give instant, intelligent help.
Why did you leave out the rebounding?
That’s probably the #1 priority.
And Singleton doesn't fit that scenario because....................................
Singleton
High Basketball IQ = check
Good rebounder = check (9.0 rebounds per 40 pace adjusted = great rebounding for a wing)
Effort = check
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
pace adjusted lol…you mean if he played more than he did his stats would be better? lol how many rebounds did faried nab, pace adjusted lol singleton will not be grabbing 9 rebounds a game in the NBA. it s a misleading statement. in fact, how many boards do you really think he will be getting if he is locking down his man, which means back to the basket!
He may be a great rebounder in college, but he will probably underperform his true abilities because of his assignment, just like nick young does. ,,,unless we stay with blatche and mcgee forever. then he will be the leading rebounder on the team lol, but we will still be horribly outrebounded as a team like we are now.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
right. i am sure he is a good rebounder if rook scouted him and says so, he will be much less good in the nba. i was joking when i said he would lead the wizzards bec our front court sucks. he still wouldnt from the three spot- especially if his back is to the basket because we are using him as the lock down perimeter defender which is the only reason to draft the guy at #6 in the first place.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Singleton is decent on the glass, but he’s not elite. If we are going to stick with Nick, JaVale, and Dray in the starting lineup, we need an elite rebounder at the SF spot.
Singleton’s stats (9.0 total rebounds per 40 pace adjusted, 6.3 defensive) make him look like an excellent rebounder, but the reality is that many of his rebounds were relative cheapies. The FSU starting lineup had Singleton, one player taller than him, and three players who were each four or more inches shorter than him. Depending on the opponent, Singleton often defended the PF position. When free throws were being taken, Singleton always took one of the positions closest to the basket. As a player who spent so much time close to the basket, Singleton’s rebounding should be compared to PFs, not SFs.
Compared to Singleton, guys like Jordan Hamilton and Tyler Honeycutt are actually much better rebounders, despite posting similar stats.
Instead of blowing our load on Singleton, I’d rather take a C at #6 and Honeycutt at #18.
If we come away from a 23 win season with...
…only Singleton, then next year will be another very painful year for Wizard fans.
We need to score big-time players at the 3 and 4. Big-time players understand that
defense is important.
Let’s see if there is just some more lip service paid to defense next year, or whether anybody
will get serious about D.
Of course
And when Harrison Barnes and Terrence Barnes were in the draft still, none of us were talking about getting Singleton with our first pick.
But this draft doesn’t to have many “big-time players” so the premise of this argument is to get the other needs accomplished in this draft (defensive improvement) and hope to land a good pick in the next draft to land our big time player, since it looks to be full of players much more likely to play at that level.
All fine and nice
to say the Wizards need to score big-time players at the 3 and 4
Where are they? Which players do you consider “big-time” in this draft?
Most of the “big-time” players went back to College (Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, Terrence Jones, etc….) -
So trying to find a non-existent gem in this draft is folly. Instead, the Wizards should concentrate on getting a starter and a bench/role player… If they can get one starter out of this draft, I’ll be satisfied.. If they can get better defensively, I’ll be satisfied. If they can get a player that rebounds well, I’ll be satisfied.
We all have to start to realize what this draft is…. and that there are NO Super Stars in this draft…
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
by Rook6980 on Jun 1, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
stay with me here
Let’s say Jonas V is a legitimate prospect. Let’s say we grab him and he stays in Europe for two years. Let’s say over that two years, he puts on another 25 pounds, and rounds out his game to learn some basic post moves, develops a 10-20 foot jumper, and builds his strength (all realistic expectations). and we get an almost as good as Singleton wing player with #18.
next year, we are still a low lottery team, and a Harrison Barnes really becomes an option for us. The following year, we are a mid lottery team and can add another good piece and the now he is really ready for the NBA jonas. We enter the 2013-14 season with three real building blocks, plus whatever we get out of JVM, AB, JC. and the 2012 mid lottery pick. That is a real team that can pull together just in time to resign JW. If both Jonas and JVM develop into real players, we have a real trade chip to add what we need because a good center is ALWAYS in demand.
or we can go the route often suggested. grab a singleton or some other good role player at #6 and another at #18. with improved play, we probably win 30 games and are in the mid to later lottery. we cant grab a barnes level talent, but add another good player. the next year, we add another good player. and we are a second round playoff team that is not a true contender. AND this assumes that AB/JVM can flame out, which I hope they do.
Which would you rather do? Personally, I go for the first scenario. We are not competing for a championship in the next two years. But I would be ecstatic if we could put the pieces in places for a true contender together in three years! You dont get there if you grab a solid if unspectacular role player. You get there by getting a guy who can not contribute much his first couple years and develop into a solid player/star and use that small contribution to better position yourself in the lottery for a couple years so you can add real talent. OKC worked because once they added durant, they had three more low lottery picks in two years plus ibaka developed. My point is you have to do it my way or get multiple lottery picks over two/three years, or your regular allotment when you are bad (2 years) and win the lottery when you are already pretty good.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont know if Jonas V projects to be that player. From what I have seen he does. Ernie’s call of course!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
correction- this assumes that AB/JVM can flame out, which I hope they do.
should read …i hope they do not!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
#2
I’ll take the 2nd option since I’m not a JV fan. Drafting a player that will be on the team next season won’t really make all that much difference anyways, unless they move up to get Kanter or Williams. The biggest thing to point out is that nothing is guaranteed in the lottery. The Wizards won 23 games this season and have the 6th pick in a weak draft, if they win 30 games next season they’ll still have no worse than a top 10 pick, with the possibility of a top 3 pick in what looks like an excellent draft. The goal is to get a player that can be apart of the Wizards for the next 6-10 years. All of these draft picks are building blocks, with only 7 players under contract these blocks are weight barring, losing one of these building blocks (picks) for 2-3 years makes the foundation very shaky.
thats cool! and i agree- draft to look out what the team can look like in five years (or 6-10). Personally, i am ok sacrificing two lost years any ways for a much better team 3-10 years for now. it would be much better because you will get better lottery picks for two drafts, including a very strong one next year.
the beauty is you can play GM the way you want and I can do it my way =) It’s Ernie’s ass on the line. I think there is only the remotest of possibilities he does as I suggested- almost nil. And I think there is a less than 50% chance he would pull the trigger to trade up for Kanter even if given the chance. So your scenario likely will play out, and we will see where the chips fall.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
it would be much better because you will get better lottery picks for two drafts, including a very strong one next year….
and more upside with this year’s pick
hence a much better team!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
We enter the 2013-14 season
And the entire time, the Wizards are losing…. during the 2011-12 season, the 2012-13 season… losing….losing…. and more losing…
John Wall has now had 3 consecutive years on a losing team…. and can become a restricted free agent in the Summer of 2014….
Maybe you think the Wizards can wait that long – but I don’t think so… Wall will walk if the Wizards don’t improve and get to the Playoffs in 2013…. At least there’s that distinct possibility… The lure of New York, or the Lakers, or Miami, or another big market team with a lot of cash, and a history of Playoff success will start to look very, very good to him….
So waiting 2 or 3 years for Valancinuas to “develop” overseas, in my mind, is not an option worth pursuing.
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
seriously
That’s also two more years of playing a completely different style of basketball against different type of athletes. So he’ll be 21yrs old before ever regularly competing against nba level athletes…is that any good? And what happens if JV kicks ass and gets offered a huge deal in the Euroleague? He’s gonna pay a big buyout to come here and get paid the rookie scale? Huge questions about JV given he cant actually come here next season…
He wants to play in the NBA. He wants to come over when he can get some playing time. He has stated that repeatedly.
He plays pick and roll basketball. That is exactly how we will use him. He is developing for us over there. He can lift weights in Europe, which is something he needs to do.
The Euroleague IS the NBA developmental league for many people that want to be paid. But he can not get a 100mm contract in Europe. If you want the big bucks, you play in the NBA. I think most people here know that and are not going to be scared into a what if Europe offers big money draft decision.
Now from time to time, there is a legit NBA talent that chooses to stay in Europe for family or other reasons, but that is not too common. And Jonas has said it he wants to come here. in fact, his contract specifically states that the only way he can leave the team is to play in the NBA. So I dont think that super big Euro contract is waiting because he is signed to a national team, not even the best league. And he contractually can not leave his current team unless it is to go to the NBA!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, I disagree with some of your implications. Wall is an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2015. He is restricted if he opts out a year early. if he signs a contract in summer 2014, we match it and dont think twice about it. he is our franchise player and they will pony up the money for him. A really good scenario for us is JW signs a tender as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2014. We dont have to compete with anyone for him. we only have to match the price and we will lock him up for the duration of that contract. By 2013, all the players I mentioned will be on the team. So they would have played full two seasons together before wall is an unrestricted free agent. And they will be good the first year.
And I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this team will suck for both 2011-12 and 2012-13 regardless. We dont have the talent or desire to spend the money on free agents. We are a lottery team both years. So I am not sure what you are referring to with losing losing losing because that is what it looks like we will do- no matter who we draft.
And more to the point, the development and consistent play of JVM and AB have a larger impact on this team’s performance over the next two seasons than any draft pick we get this year and very likely next year- unless we win the lottery and there is a talent that can catapult a shitty team up by ten games. if either one of those two puts their head on straight, develops like they give a shit, and plays consistently next season, we are a 30-35 win team next season. I wouldnt count on that happening though =(
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This isn't a popular comment and I've said it before
but for the best sake of this franchise, we need a lockout, a CBA in favor of the owners and no 2011-2012 season to accelerate our rebuild. Otherwise, our ceiling is playoffs and that will be only because we have a presumably All Star guard in John Wall.
If Wall Dougies to one of those teams or any other team besides the Wizards
as a promising young player
then Ted needs to sell this team and move it to Seattle or Anaheim or Montreal. We can then WAIT for an expansion franchise and call it the Bullets (since that’s what some of us want). This draft and the next CBA is a do or die situation on the rebuild.
if we stay at 6, or trade back (which i actually support more if we decide to go for singleton, he just isn’t worth pick #6 more like #9-#12), and pick singleton, i doubt his addition will threaten where the wiz pick in next years lottery. (when durant got westbrook they still sucked the next year, and singleton ain’t no westbrook) so at worst, we draft as high as eight MAYBE. realistically, we could be back in the top 6 six again but in a much stronger draft where 6 actually might mean something. if singleton d’s up like we all say he do, the wiz are adding a much needed skill set for the future. what was said is right, you cannot win a trophy without D. and the wiz got no D whatsoever. so why not get to work on improving that and try to come away with one of the best defenders from recent drafts, instead of taking a chance on a project at 6 in a weak weak weak draft. of course you cant guarantee it, but i think there is great chance we will still be in place in the draft to pick that complimentary star next year.
That's where I an
I think most people opposed to that line of thought have undefined paths to glory which are unrealistic.
by Jim America on Jun 2, 2011 8:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The difference between one draft spot and another is a game or two. We are sixth and not tied for fifth because our starters beat Boston’s bench and we finished a game ahead of them.
To say Singleton will not threaten our draft status next year implies to me that you do not expect him to contribute to wins. And since you are against a project, it seems he is ready to play.
For all those assumptions to gibe, you can not expect very much out of Singleton.By definition, if he can not move the needle he isnt contributing much. What do you expect?
To win in the NBA, you need stars, Miami has two of the top players in the league and their third is a top 10 player. Is the only reason you do not want a project is because you dont want to wait a few years for them to develop (which by the way is true of every player; they dont peak at 22!). Because you dont draft a project you dont think is legitimate and will not develop. I am not knocking impatience. I have waited longer for a championship contender than many on this blog. And I feel I am more patient when I have visibility for a better team than most as a result.
But it seems that many people who dont want a project really dont want to wait for a project to develop, even if it lands them a better team. Or they do not see the visibility in a project developing. EVERYTHING i supported here is predicated on the fact that there is a legitimate front court double-double prospect that can defend and rebound when he develops. And there is a good chance he develops. I think we could get that prospect in this draft (but dont think we will) and I am willing to wait three years for the better team. The fact that the draft is weak has no bearing on how one player will develop. But if he is not here, I dont support the strategy.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
i respect patience, and i know this team needs in order to succeed. however, maybe because i doubt the talent in this class so much, i just don’t think there will be that star sitting there for us past irving, kanter, and williams. no one we pick outside those three will make an immediate impact on this team next year as far as wins. (improvement is going to come from the young talent they currently have.) however, there are a select group of players a couple years down the road that will have an impact. singleton can def be one of them, but thats just my opinion. someone else certainly can too tho, but who exactly is a matter of opinion.
there are NO Super Stars in this draft…
I dont believe there is any way you can make that claim right now. We don’t have enough information on these guys, their future situations, or their drive to improve.
I think an argument can be made there is no obvious superstar in this draft, But to categorically deny one will come out of this draft class is premature.
Have you seen Jonas play this month when his team won the championship? Curious how he developed in the six months since you last reported scouting him.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you seen Jonas play this month
Yes – I still have my subscription to EuroLeague.TV
And yes… I’ve seen him play…. and he has not changed my mind one little bit… He’s at least 2-3 years away from contributing to an NBA team… if not more than that… He lacks strength. His rebounding is all arms (no fundamentals, no holding position, no blocking out)… His footwork in the post is atrocious. I have yet to see him set a decent screen. If you give him the ball on Offense, he turns it over.
He can run the floor. He can block shots. He can rebound outside his immediate area. He plays with energy. But right now he’s playing “run and jump” – not Basketball.
In 3 or 4 years, he may develop into a very good player…. but it’s my opinion that the Wizards cannot wait that long…
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Almost all centers are 2-3 years away! (Shaq and Howard excepted). That is not unique to him.
He lacks strength- that is the #1 reason they need 2 years. He will develop there
His rebounding is all arms/no fundamentals- can he learn it? will he learn it? Legitimate concern but he seems to have a good head on his shoulder and is coachable.
…yada yada yada the rest- clearly he needs to develop. the question is will he develop? what leads us to believe yes or no.
He is the #3 prospect for a reason. He has improved noticably ever year. And having a motor really helps me believe he will want to develop. You play hard all the time when you care.
I definitely am not in a position to know whether he will develop. That is Ernie’s job. and it is such a high risk move for him already on the thin ice . i dont see making this move. So I would not get too bent out of shape about this strategy. it is something I would do if I were GM and he checked out to have the potential to be a top 5, two way center in the league in under five years.
The area we disagree on is you are not willing to wait 3-4 years to find out. And I am. I am because during the first two years we will get high lottery picks. And we will have three super star or near prospects to go pair with Jonas and Wall. So he will be coming into his own when the other players we draft come into their own. We could go 25 wins, 30 wins, 50 wins (or 40 then 50).
I dont see that upside drafting singleton. because as you improve, by definition your draft pick worsens. and you are usually out of position to draft a superstar after the first or second year!
But that is me. I want to win a championship and you need real legit star talent to get there. you need a couple pieces. and it is extremely extremely unlikely WAS can attract a legit top 10 player in this league who will excel in offense and defense through free agency. that happens so rarely. and if were to happen again, chances are he is a point guard.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, that is one scenario with Jonas. I like Kanter better for us and would really try to get him.
But that is how I roll…if you do not have a consistent front court double double guy that projects to develop an offensive game and not be a defensive liability, you get him when he comes around unless you can get a super star prospect.
Jonas has a nice hook shot today. I have seen it. Kanter has some good post moves already as well!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
And Rook, I have waited for 1980 for this franchise to put together a team that could at least legitimately compete for a championship. So for me to see a road map to 50 wins and a second round of the playoff win and I only have to wait three or four years, I am all over that!
You might not have waited as long as me. So that may sound crazy to you. But you will see. This shit is really hard when you do not have a top 5 player, another superstar and a third at least near all star.
They can always go sign someone to a 3/4 year contract with the money they saved by not having Jonas on the payroll to offset some of the teams performance
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
1980? Youngster huh?
I’ve been following the team for more than 45 years….
And if you think that JV will be “another superstar” , or even a “near All-Star” – then that is where you and I have the most to disagree about….
Singleton has more chance to be an All-Star than Valanciunas does, in my opinion.
So – THERE’s the wide gap in our (yours and mine) opinions…. I believe you have seriously over estimated JV’s talent level; and you believe JV has the chance to be a Super Star player.
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
45 years- Cool!
I dont believe that Jonas is a superstar. I know you dont like him very much. I dont know him at all. I have seen some clips of him, and I dont agree with some of what you wrote. He is athletic for instance. He is not uber atheletic for sure. But I agree with some of what you wrote too!
He is a top 5 prospect in this draft for many people but not for you. None of us know who is right today. They have watched some film; you have watched some film. So I am open minded, and I feel more open to him being a legitimate prospect than you appear to be right now.
If he is not that prospect, he is not that prospect. It doesnt leave us much to discuss because Singleton might be a good consolation prize. What is interesting to me is IF he is a legit prospect with visibility towards being a solid two way center, drafting Jonas and letting him sit in Europe to develop. Because he wont cost us anything other than opportunity. And that opportunity cost works in our favor because it will better position us for the next two years to grab better players- maybe an all star or two. And then bring in Jonas in year three. We will suck for two more seasons, but will have a really good team in three for as long as we can keep it together. I dont think it jeopardizes JW because they will have two seasons together playing before JW is a unrestricted free agent. And I am patient enough to wait for a better team. I think that is an interesting strategy. I know you dont like it because you dont think Jonas can be that player. But if he can…it works for me =)
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
So what I am saying is looking out five years, this could be one uncommon path to a championship contender. The problem I have with drafting a role player like Singleton is that I dont think we will get the pieces to legitimately compete for a championship.
If Singleton is solid, we pick up one more piece next year. AB or JVM will develop more over the next two years. And when you put that together, we are somewhere between high lottery and low seed playoff contender- 35-45 win team. But we are not a championship contender and in a worse position to put the pieces together to form one.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
how do you know...
that Singleton will never be more than a solid role player. what if Singleton is right and he’s a modern day Scottie Pippen? Or even a younger Shawn Marion? That would be a big part in putting together a playoff contender with a chance to actually do something once there.
Chris Singleton
Best Case: Trevor Ariza
Worst Case: Dominic McGuire
According to Draft Express:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Chris-Singleton-1342/
Also don’t like the part of the Video Breakdown where it says that one of Singleton’s weaknesses is poor finishing ability on the break and at the rim.
But in 5 years JV could be a dominant player
CS is 2 years older than JV so of course his game looks better. JV is playing pro ball. He wont look as good as CS because CS is playing against an econ major. There is a significant difference in talent they are going against.
by hambonejackson on Jun 2, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Jonas Valanciunas
Best Case: Andris Biedrins Meets Joakim Noah
Worst Case: Omer Asik
According to Draft Express:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jonas-Valanciunas-5622/
So he could be a borderline star, but even in the worst case, he’s good enough to get meaningful minutes in the playoffs for a contender.
A borderline star??
More like an above average role-player to me.
TNT should've treated Lebron's return to Cleveland game like 2k11 and cut the game off after the Cavs were down by 30. lol
I think you underappreciate defense, hustle, and players who are willing to do the dirty work.
Noah’s a star among people who appreciate winning basketball.
Incidentally, your boy Kanter:
Best Case: Kevin Love
Worst Case: Rafael Araujo
Which is what I’ve been saying all along- nice ceiling, but significant bust potential.
I’d rather have the lower bust potential of Valanciunas who is all-but-guaranteed to be at least a contender-caliber backup C.
There is a lot of horse-trading going on at the top....
Teams are willing to eat salaries (e.g., Rip’s) to get picks. The Wiz ought to feel a great sense of
urgency. Bottom line, they have to do what it takes to get Kantor this year.
And then the 3 position will be the following year’s chore.
My point is Singleton would be okay at the 18th, but just don’t expect much from him.
I don’t get why the expectations aren’t higher than just getting Singleton. Miami got LeBron and Bosh, and they had Wade already on the payroll. The Wiz need to wheel and deal.
Comparing the Wizards to the Heat
Is like comparing an apple to a piece of paper and suggesting the apple must be more like the piece of paper because both are objects.
by Mike Prada on Jun 1, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
its all celulose mike! lol
agree, you cant compare the franchises in any manner.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 1, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Team defense wins championships, not the defense of a couple of players
The fact that those championship teams had premier defenders is just one indication that those teams valued defense, and played defense well. I like the idea of drafting good defenders, but can we also draft a coach who emphasizes defense? It’s important to get defensive-minded players, but it’s even more important to improve the defense of the players we already have.
Agreed
My only concern is a coaching change every year could retard the growth of our young gun.
agreed.
and you need to score when the other team ramps up their defense. that is who wins championships!
by les boulez bomber on Jun 2, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't advocate a change of coach
Just a change of coaching. Incidentally, I’d like to stats on the number of premier defenders who played on bad teams.
Possible 2nd round pick consideration
Iman Shumpert is the PG/SG from Georgia Tech
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/iman-shumpert
“Has “lock-down defender” potential"
They compare him to Javaris Crittenton, which isn’t horrible lol. He’s probably the most athletic PG in the draft and if the Wiz groom him to be the backup PG who’s main priority is to defend then I think he’d be a solid pickup.
Predraft Measurements include:
Height w/ shoes: 6’5.5"
Weight: 222lbs
Wingspan: 6’9.5"
Body Fat: 6.5
No Step Vert: 36.5
Max Vert.: 42
Bench Press: 18
3/4 Court Sprint: 3.18
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