2010/11 Washington Wizards Player Evaluation: JaVale McGee
by Sean Fagan on May 17, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in 2011 Player Evaluations
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PrintOver the next few weeks, we will be evaluating the 2010/11 seasons of all the players who ended the year on the Wizards' roster. We'll offer our quick thoughts, then ask you to grade their season on a 1-10 scale in the comments. For the purposes of this exercise, we'll start with the key players and work our way down. Next in line: JaVale McGee
Key advanced stat: Despite his blocked shots, McGee actually barely made a difference for the Wizards' defensive efficiency when he was on the floor (110.1 with him on vs. 110.4 with him off). He actually made a much bigger difference offensively (105 on vs. 98.9 off)
In a not too distant future we may look back at JaVale McGee's 2010/11 season not as the period in which JaVale McGee took his first steps towards stardom, but a period in which a compromise or detente was reached between coach and player. Of all the Wizards written about during last season, the most ink (or in this case pixels) was spilled over the Wizards immensely talented but also immensely frustrating center. The embodiment of that frustration was coach Flip Saunders, who appeared to reserve his most pointed barbs and head scratching for the play of his pivot man.
For every amazing McGee block, there was talk about the McGee putting on a "dribbling exhibition" or "believing that he is a PG." Every thunderous dunk went hand in hand an aside about how McGee "has one or two highlight plays a game. The problem is that there are two hundred fifty plays a game." This continued on for the better part of the year.
But by the end of the season, there appeared to be a gradual shift in the coaching staff's treatment of McGee. The criticism of McGee grew more muted and McGee was was given a larger role in the offense and a longer leash after making a mistake. How the Wizards and McGee got to that point is a remarkable evolution to study further.
Up into the All-Star break, the compromise that was to emerge between McGee and the coaching staff was not a possibility than many would have predicted. McGee spent the period prior to the All-Star break alternatively demonstrating both his freakish athleticism and his penchant for poor decision making. A typical McGee mistake (bringing the ball up the court while refusing to hand off to John Wall, attempting to dunk from the free throw line, taking an ill-advised jumper with 22 seconds left on the clock) would lead to McGee being immediately pulled from the game and assistant coach Randy Wittman having a near cardiac arrest. McGee would often get yanked for defensive purposes in favor of Hilton Armstrong and Kevin Seraphin, a decision that reveals as much about the Wizards' depth as it does about McGee's ability to play decent positional defense.
Further, McGee would generate his own meme during this period with Flip Sauders trotting out the now semi-famous "style vs. substance" stance that would come to define McGee's play during the year. The first half of the season culminated with McGee getting robbed in the NBA Dunk competition, with future ROY of Blake Griffin taking the nod by dunking over an economy car while McGee set a Guiness World Record.
Following the break, McGee's play hit a nadir with a string of poor performances where both the player's decision-making and confidence were called into question by many, including the coaching staff. Things reached a tipping point during a game against Chicago in which McGee appeared to break out of his funk by recording his first career triple-double but was roundly criticized by national media and bloggers for being a selfish player who tried to "get his" during a a blowout loss.
The funny thing about the triple-double is that it once again turned the season around for McGee. The coaching staff began to trust McGee more and started to run the first offensive set of the game to get McGee a touch. McGee's play also noticeably became more disciplined, as he began to adapt to Saunders' idiom of "playing within oneself" and not always trying to hit the home run. Most noticeably, Saunders criticism of McGee appeared to soften, as he went to greater efforts to praise the accomplishment of McGee and began allowing for mistakes on the court.
The question we are left with is the one that seems to plague all Wizards fans following the growth of a player: will that player build upon that growth next season? I think its unlikely the coaching staff will ever be able to truly rid McGee of some of his "stylish" tendencies. However, by giving McGee a larger and more defined role within the system, the team can hopefully rein in the quirks of McGee's game with the promise of a greater reward. We are past the point with McGee that the team can punish him for every little miscue. Instead it is time to take the training wheels off and truly give him the keys to the car.
Jake's limerick (as found below) does a lovely job is summing up the the JaVale McGee Experience as witnessed through the lens of BF. Like Andray Blatche, he is a player that doesn't often inspire a tepid reaction, as he can generously be said to have the most vociferous proponents/detractors on the board. And yet, unlike Blatche, McGee took a step forward this year and made a statement as to his future value to the franchise. Whether you are measuring McGee with numbers or your eyeballs, 2010/11 has to be considered a success.
A LIMERICK ABOUT JAVALE MCGEE'S SEASON, BY JAKE WHITACRE
Favorite JaVale McGee quote, as noted by Mike Prada
"He showed a video -- like a National Geographic video of a herd of buffalo together. I guess there was a message that we need to stay together." -McGee on Saunders showing the Battle At Kruger tape.
Discussion question: Will JaVale McGee ever be a starting center that logs 30+ mpg?
Rate McGee's season on a scale of 1-10, given the expectations you feel he should have been given heading into the season.
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good write up
I think the next big step for him will be figuring out how to play team defense. I’d love it if he’d spend the entire summer watching clips of Kevin Garnett rotating to cut off the baselines when a guy gets past Ray Allen or Pierce.
Follow me on twitter -
http://twitter.com/TheRealTPruitt
by pantslessyoda1 on May 17, 2011 12:11 PM EDT reply actions
The hardest player to evaulate, in my opinion.
I’ve been a big supporter in the past. During his mid-season swoon, I changed to a “he’ll be a good backup” attitude. Then, when the light went on (as I thought it had before) toward the end of the season, he excited me with this growth and potential.
That said, I have no idea what kind of player he’ll turn out to be. The most encouraging signs, to me, was that he stopped trying to block every shot, and realized that positional defense was more important.
I’m surprised at his defensive efficiency numbers; I thought they’d be better, since he’s such a deterrent toward driving to the hoop. I’d also be interested in seeing the trend of that number, to see if it improves toward season’s end.
Like Blatche, I think this coming season will determine if JaVale’s a cornerstone player or energy guy off the bench.
I don't have a chart handy
But I do recall checking in a lot during the season, and the trend was pretty steady.
I’m surprised at his defensive efficiency numbers; I thought they’d be better, since he’s such a deterrent toward driving to the hoop. I’d also be interested in seeing the trend of that number, to see if it improves toward season’s end.
I don’t have any stats to back this up – just my eyeballs – but I’d bet that for every play that McGee made a block, or changed a shot, or deterred a guard from driving – there were just as many plays where he:
bit on a pump fake, allowing an easy basket
was out of position and a basket resulted
Was called for goal tending
etc….
Cut down on the mistakes, the penchant to go after EVERY shot, and play better positional defense – and McGee has the potential to be a real defensive force…. (not to mention his obvious offensive abilities and talents = oops, transition dunks, put backs, and even the occasional hook shot, etc…)
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Those defensive efficiency numbers are not very reliable
They’re super inconsistent from year to year…wouldn’t put much stock in them. I guarantee you several players who are considered great defensively have bad differentials; there are just too many variables.
Obviously I am in the tank for Pierre
and I do think he gets an unfair rap at times on several fronts.
One is that his freakish athleticism should allow for him to dominate everybody. In fact he is tall and skinny, getting bodied out of rebounding position is not because he sucks it’s because of his physical build. Hopefully that continues to change with added bulk.
Another is that he always seems to be lumped in with Dray, as if they are peas in a pod…but really they seem very different. Mcgee works his butt off over the summer and is an energetic player on the floor until his asthma hits him. There is a disconnect in equating him and Blatche but then complaining that Mcgee is trying to do too much, contest every shot, gets out of position. I’d much rather have a guy who runs around too much than one who stands still too often.
As for this season’s progression….with more touches and a longer leash, Javale played smarter and more in control. This seems to happen to most players once they get past the jitters of “having to score” because they won’t see the ball for 10 more mins. If/when he gets more touches next season, he’ll continue to progress especially on the passing front (imo).
Bottomline is Mcgee has an array of skills all of which can be honed to make him a very effective C in this league. Hell, he is 1 or 2 basic moves away from being a reliable offensive option…that’s not too far to go. Getting him to make the jump to the next level is probably the single most important determinant of the franchise’s near future.
by DCrez on May 17, 2011 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The 1 or 2 moves thing is part of the problem for me
while yes it would be awesome if he could develope into an offensive option, i view his value more similar to Tyson Chandler. The only offensive he looks for is right at the rim, benefiting from effective gaurd play and good screen setting. I dont think he will ever develope the types of moves necessary to warrent any isolation touches, but i do think he could be a legit starter if he had a better defined role. I dont know if the coaching staff hasn’t defined it for him, or if he doesnt care to listen, but i just think he needs to mentally reign himself in and rely on rebounding, positioning and John Wall to get his points. My worry is that he never does that, and continues to shoot turn arounds and dribble as discussed in the post. I agree that he does get a bad rap, but my frustration lies with his inability to see where he could be effective NOW, not down the road (ie post moves, dribbling)
this season he shot 55% with roughly 1 FGA/game outside 9ft
More, please. I think at the end of the season he started to display some effective spin moves and even some counters. With a little more lower body weight and practice, he should be able to get some basic shots off uncontested. Just how much offense they envision for him will be a big question next season. I would like to see him have enough leash to go right at opposing Cs more often, make them foul him rather than just watch guys like Gasol, Hibbert, and Howard barrel into him and not have to guard him on other end.
totally fair
I guess my worry is more about asking him to have the ball in his hands instead of working on setting effective screens for pick and roll opportunities, letting someone else make the offensive descisions. I totally agree with your point though, making other centers work on defense, i guess i just wish it came in a more polished package.
you always hit the nail on the head with JaVale, my man
He had such an underrated season. He improved his rebounding and shooting from the field…what more could you possibly want? I can’t believe the most common vote was a seven.
He has two moves already
He has a half hook that he can use in the low post and a finger roll he can use in the high post. If he focuses on those two moves so that he knows how to use them depending on how the defense is playing him, he will be more than adequate.
That’s the most frustrating thing with McGee is there is NOTHING wrong with his game that a little film study couldn’t fix. Well, and he needs to get in the weight room and bulk up his butt. He focuses too much on core and cardio, which is fine. But he needs a bigger butt.
by ZonkerBL on May 17, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am really rooting for Mcgee to fulfill his potential.
I like what he has the potential to be, when you combine his personality with his athletic gifts.
The problem with McGee is how long does it take his mental game to catch up with athletic abilities.
The realist in me says McGee is probably close to what he will ultimately be as a player, which to me says he’d be better served coming off the bench if we can find a more consistent option at the 5.
What about avoiding foul trouble?
McGee’s minutes were limited by fouls, on top of asthma and getting pulled for coaching. I haven’t really checked stats on this, but it seems JaVale got pulled for getting in foul trouble even more often than the previously emphasized reasons. Hopefully just being a higher profile player will help him get more calls, and improving positional D couldn’t hurt either.
When will it sink in?
Javale definitely merits minutes since we have no viable options behind him. But what happens when he ever looks at the tape and sees himself badly out-of-position on help D, getting pump-faked in the air or just watching the rebounding scrum Blatche-style from the perimeter. Can you imagine all the constructive feedback he must have received from the coaching staff over the past few years about his habits.
And yes, he shoots 55% (and only 58% from FT). He also had the 4th most dunks of anyone in the NBA last year, so he should actually be more efficient offensively and get rid of the floating-across-the-lane-while-falling-backwards-move. Javale would benefit from more of a transition game against those bigger centers, but it was an absolute joke that he got any Defensive Player of the Year votes.
Maybe Hilton Armstrong was supposed to be his mentor last year. The Wizards could use a veteran either with him on the locker room or added to the coaching bench. Ben Wallace would be ideal but Detroit has him tutoring Monroe. Maybe Theo Ratliff or recruit Dikembe or Adonal Foyle —two smart and well-respected guys to join the coaching ranks.
I don't understand this
55% isn’t enough for you? Most NBA players are completely incapable of shooting 55% over the course of a season, but no, it should be so much higher. Just ridiculous.
I have a different perspective
At the beginning of the year, I felt the biggest need for improvement for McGee was defense, where opposing centers had a PER of 25. My thought was that if he improved to 20 that would be good enough. He did better than that, so let’s take a closer look.
Generally speaking, defensive stats are hard to come by, but as an overall basis there is: 1) the PER of the player’s counterpart and 2) the player’s defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). For specific positions, defensive rebounding percentage may be relevant, or block percentages or steal percentages.
Of course, Dwight Howard won the DPOY. But eight other big men got some votes. See:
http://www.nba.com/2011/news/04/18/dwight-howard-defensive-player-release/index.html
So let’s focus on the relevant defensive statistics of the other big men on the list in their order of votes received:
Defensive Rating Opposing Player’s PER (at their prime position) Defensive Rebounding Block %
Garnett 95 14.1 28.7% 2.0%
Chandler 102 17.4 26.6% 3.0%
Bogut 97 13.9 27.1% 5.8%
Ibaka 104 17.1 20.8% 6.5%
Noah 97 18.2 22.8% 3.5%
Duncan 100 15.7 26.8% 4.8%
McGee 106 17.7 22.2% 6.7%
Bynum 100 11.9 24.7% 5.4%
Ranking by Category
Player Defensive Rating Opposing PER Defensive Rebounding Block %
Garnett 1 3 1 8
Chandler 6 6 4 7
Bogut 2 2 2 3
Ibaka 7 5 8 2
Noah 2 8 6 6
Duncan 4 4 3 5
McGee 8 7 7 1
Bynum 4 1 5 4
Rankings
Player Simple Average of Rankings Simple Rank (of averages)
Garnett 3.25 2
Chandler 5.75 7
Bogut 2.25 1
Ibaka 5.5 5
Noah 5.5 5
Duncan 4 4
McGee 5.75 7
Bynum 3.5 3
What is relevant for McGee from these numbers?
First, after the top statistical grouping of Garnett and Bogut and Bynum, there is a steady drop-off.
Second, the rest of the pack is fairly even, with /Duncan leading this bunch. However, without including the blocking percentages, Ibaka and McGee would fall out of this bunch.
Third, Ibaka and McGee have the highest block percentages in this group, but the lowest defensive rebounding percentages. Maybe the two statistics are inversely correlated. As Rook has pointed out, he’d prefer rebounds to blocks. Apparently, only Dwight Howard can deliver both.
Finally, McGee has the best defensive rating on the Wiz – which isn’t saying much. But he’s come a long way from the prior year when opposing centers averaged a 25 PER against him.
What can we expect next year? I would target opposing Centers’ PER at less than 15 next year. Also, he needs to begin to develop a repertoire of two shots on the offensive end. With those improvements, he’ll be on his way to being an all-star in the following season.
Two things
1. DRtg is a misleading stat to measure across teams, since so much depends on your teammates.
2. The issue with McGee is always his help defense, not his man defense, so citing opposing centers’ PER is only a small piece of the puzzle.
Maybe Wittman isnt a good coach.
Chicago’s help defense is absurdly good and imo it’s due to the chosen scheme and the Coach teaching it. There are a couple guys on their roster who were known as poor defenders who now “get it” with regards to help D and communication. That is coaching. Omar Asik has become a terrific defender whereas he wasnt that good to start the season. Coaching.
Of course, maybe Mcgee doesnt do what his coaches want while guys like Asik, Deng, and Boozer do which would be a huge negative against him and likely derail his career.
But IMO the floating trapezodial rhombus zone abomination and the guys teaching it have as much to do with our poor D as the players themselves.
Chicago has only one bad big man defender
And it’s Boozer, who still isn’t good.
Asik was never a bad defender – not sure where you are getting this idea.
watching Asik earlier this season
he was not the defender he is now IMO. He’s gotten much, much better at sliding into the correct position all the time, reads plays better, great footwork. Just what I see anyway
the bulls overall were like 25th in the nba for points allowed 2 seasons ago with Deng saying:
“The help side is not there, and we don’t really talk much on defense,” Deng said. “We’ve got to eliminate layups and make teams beat us with outside shots and contest those.”
I think the difference between now and then is coaching, not the players, many of whom remain the same. Defense is Thibs calling card and the Bulls play like it, that’s not a coincidence. On the other hand their offense is not nearly as polished, also not a coincidence
Well Thibs is obviously a huge defensive upgrade over Del Negro
But the players are so much better. In 2009…
-Ben Gordon started at shooting guard
-Kirk Hinrich missed half the season
-Derrick Rose was a rookie, and rookie PGs always stink on defense (i.e. Wall)
-Tyrus Thomas was the starting PF, and he and Del Negro never got along
-Joakim Noah didn’t start until the midway point of the season
-Defensive aces like Taj Gibson, Asik and Ronnie Brewer weren’t on the team
-Luol Deng didn’t play in the playoffs
So the players weren’t largely the same. In fact, only Rose, Noah and Deng remain from the 09 team, and Deng didn’t play in the playoffs.
lets start with basics
This is his 3rd full season, going into his 4th. is this the year he realizes that blocks that go out of bounds are a “me” play and not a “team” play? He celebrates them like we’re getting the ball. there has to be a drill to teach him to keep the ball in bounds or control it to a teammate.
remember after one of Love’s big rebounding games JaVale went out and tried to put up those big numbers too? for a few games his numbers spiked, then they came back down. he was done with that fad, time to try something else…
is this the year he realizes that his standing reach is 9 feet 7 inches, with a standing vert of nearly 12 feet or more? Meaning he doesn’t have to leap for every shot block attempt. Duncan had an amazing run where he was blocking more than a shot per game WITHOUT a single goaltending violation. JVM’s blocks may need to decrease for him to become a better defender.
i feel like we could go into advanced statistics all we want. at the end of the day he has to show more discipline in the basic fundamentals of the game to become anything more than a east coast Chris Anderson.
i was gonna give him a 6
but he did the franchise well in the dunk contest! so ill bump it to a 7
by no more kwame's in dc on May 17, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions
I saw improvement
I was pleased with how much he improved this season. He had a slump, and his defense does need help, but I like the constant effort given. Even though Dray posted better numbers in scoring, he definitely did not play as well as JaVale for the full season and his field goal pct was terrible for a seven footer. As for 30 mpg, it isn’t a stretch. He averaged almost 28 mpg this year.
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