We're into single digits! I literally got a little excited just typing that. One week from now, the draft seeding will be complete and the other postseason begins in earnest. We've read and debated as many scouting reports as we could get our hands on, and no doubt more than a few of us are wondering what we're going to do once the lottery is over. It's a long haul to June 23rd, and unless a new CBA shows up a week later, that will be the last basketball related news that doesn't involve the courts for the foreseeable future.
There's some support for trading up or down in the draft depending on how things come out, but the uncertainty surrounding the possible lockout will stay some hands. Of course, many thought the same thing with respect to the most recent trade deadline, which ended up being nothing short of historic. So, today's question deals with Ted's ten point plan, and the likelihood of the Wizards making a big move, should something suitable present itself.
Below the jump, check out an analysis of Ted's plan for the franchise as impacts trade probability, and cast your votes.
Always run away from experts that say, "We are just one player away." Recognize there is no easy and fast systemic fix. It will be a bumpy ride--have confidence in the plan--"trust and verify: the progress -- but don't deviate from the plan."
There's some confusion about the plan, to be sure. But I think it's safe to say that if there is any tenet of the plan that presents a major obstacle to some splashy trade, this is it. On a comprehensive level, we're still learning what we have, and unless something highly unexpected shakes loose, expect Ted and Ernie to stand pat. But there's further reason to suspect we'll be sitting quiet as the CBA neogtiation deadline approaches.
Once you decide to rebuild--bring the house down to the foundation--be consistent with your plan--and with your asks--we always sought to get "a pick and a prospect" in all of our trades.
Admittedly, this could work both ways. From an anti-trade perspective, you don't raze a house to the foundation then start building a new wing before you've got four walls and roof over your head. Since a trade would almost certainly involve bringing veteran talent onboard, unless Rashard Lewis is involved, the doubter in me says no way. The plan right now is to build around and develop our youth, consistency is staying the course.
That said, if a player Ted and Ernie see having a future with the team becomes available (Stephen Curry fans go BACK TO YOUR ROOM), I could see them trying to work something out. Maybe they try to dance with the devil in the pale moonlight, and we get Daryl Morey to give us Patrick Patterson for Kevin Seraphin and a swap of seconds. Getting a team to part with a pick should be easier than not this year, but prospects? With a new CBA and possible hard cap on the horizon, that's going to be problematic. But Ernie has yet to fail the trade game under his new boss, so if he makes a move, I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Commit to building around the draft. Invest in scouting, development, and a system.
This is another of those statements that could work both ways. On the surface it's got zilch to do with trade. Looking closer with an eye at our most recent trade, remember Jordan Crawford was a player high on the Wizards' draft board, someone we scouted and traded for, but still fits within the plan of building around the draft.
Be patient with young players-- throw them in the pool to see if they can swim. Believe in them. Show them loyalty.
Again, this goes back to being consistent with your plan and is a definite argument against trade. We got good value for our last piece of contender bait, and Rashard's contract won't be palatable until next offseason, but more likely circa trade deadline in 2013.
Add veterans to the team via shorter term deals as free agents. Signing long-term, expensive deals for vets is very risky. We try to add vets to the mix for two year or three year deals.
Another pro-trade indicator. Maybe teams like the Bulls (for being a perfect fit) or the Nuggets (someone has to replace J.R. Smith...maybe) are interested in Nick Young and is willing to send back a serviceable vet and a draft pick in a sign and trade. That's a departure from pick and a prospect, but if it looks like we're going to be outbid...well, we're like to set a precedent for the Leonsis era either way.
Never settle--never rest--keep on improving. Around the edges to the plan, have monthly, quarterly and annual check ups.
This goes back to shared metrics one way or the other. Ernie and Co. have no doubt been diligently evaluating the roster and preparing to establish internal trade value for whoever's on the table. Taking everything into consideration, I put the question to you, how likely is it the Wizards try to make something happen before draft day?