Keys to the Palace: A Glimmer of Hope

by Jon Kelman on Mar 6, 2011 10:55 PM EST in Keys To The Palace

'No I don't have a dog house, I have a Palace of Good Play.' I'm looking for someone who's playing well so I can put them in that palace."

-Ed Tapscott

We all expected the Wizards to be bad this season (so maybe we Editors were all waaay off). Despite being prepared for the worst, the team's recent play has left me with some angry feelings. As John Wall stated, there has been a lack of effort. I understand that we are young and short on talent, but a lack of effort is not something I can tolerate as a fan.The team's energy coupled with a lack of progress by certain players is particularly difficult to swallow.

Then came the Minnesota Timberwolves.

They are one of the 3 teams with a worse record, but that win feels a little cathartic. Instead of going with the status quo and playing the guys who should be entitled to crunch time minutes, Flip put out a hungrier group. The result speaks for itself. On a night when the players should have been fired up to support Flip after the passing of his mother, this is the type of result we needed. This is progress.

This team should not have any games they NEED to win (save for the game in Cleveland to break our road losing streak), but the game against the T'Wolves was a biggy. More importantly, maybe, just maybe, the vicious tide of malaise that was drowning this team has been slowed by a gritty performance. Things are changing.

Keys to the Palace

Player	Week 19 PER	Week 18 PER	Difference	Comment
Andray Blatche	15.3	14.9	0.4	This was pretty close to a no-brainer. The game against the Bulls wasn't amazing, but the other 3 performances were very good and what we have been wanting to see for a long time. In addition to the numbers, consider that Booker and he were the best Wizards in the 1 win this week, he was basically the only Wizard with a positive +/- (+5) against the Pistons, and has been looking to pass a lot more for the benefit of the team.
Trevor Booker	14.5	14	0.5	So what he didn't have a great night against the Pistons? He was a driving force behind the 1 victory this week, and more importantly appears to be a driving force in the Wizards boosting their overall effort. To use the word's of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, 'he gives a crap.' There is no question he needs to get increased minutes through the end of the season.

Guest Passes

Player		Week 18 PER	Difference	Comment
John Wall	15.3	15.5	-0.2	There was some good and some bad. The Bulls game was awful, the Warriors game okay, but the last 2 games were good enough to get him a guest pass. 13 free throws against the Pistons is very encouraging.
Maurice Evans	8.5	9.2	-0.7	On paper, he would have been locked out, but his intangibles are what I was hoping for. He provides grit, energy, and defense for a team short on all 3 qualities. His efforts earned him the crunch time minutes against the T'Wolves, and that performance helped push him into the starting lineup. If I had any sense that he could hang on to the starting spot, I would have given him a full Key.
Nick Young	15.4	15.4	0	He was solid against the Pistons and great against the Warriors, which is enough to get a Guest Pass. The fact that the team played their best ball this week without him is not a concern. However, his heinous cornrows are a concern.

Locked Out

Player		Week 18 PER	Difference	Comment
Josh Howard	9.9	8.9	1	He had an okay week, and just missed the cut for a Guest Pass, but I don't like injuries, so those were the proverbial nail in the coffin. Despite Booker forcing his way into a bigger role, Rashard's knee issues should keep minutes open for JoHo.
Kevin Seraphin	8.9	9.4	-0.5	This was a very 'meh' week for Seraphin. The bad is that he continues to foul at some crazy rate and look like a klutz. The good is that he has shown a little bit of an offensive post game. I know this may sound contradictory, but he has managed to be both clumsy and graceful. Such is the life of an extremely raw player. Make no mistake though, the clumsiness can be fixed, and the potential for any offensive game is exciting.
Jordan Crawford	4.9	18.2	-13.3	I REALLY want to like him. When he entered the draft, I thought Crawford had a shot to be a good NBA player. My dreams of the Wizards having dug up a real diamond in the rough were shattered though by him shooting 27% this week. I am not giving up on him, and the community had high praise for his performance against Detroit, but I have had trouble seeing the same potential I once saw.
Cartier Martin	12.3	12.5	-0.2	He played all but 2 of his minutes this week against the T'Wolves, and shot 2-for-8 in 27 minutes of action against them. His recent poor play has been the main cause of the drop in his playing time, but the addition of Crawford isn't helping his cause either.
Rashard Lewis	12.8	13.3	-0.5	I know he's hurt, but his performances have gradually gotten worse and worse. Given that this team isn't going anywhere, it would seem that surgery would be the best answer for both him, and the Wizards, as the younger guys could soak up a few more minutes. The bad news is that continued knee trouble makes him a less appealing trade chip next season.
JaVale McGee	16.5	16.7	-0.2	He was once again generally a non-factor and is finally losing his entitlement to big minutes. The energetic lineup that propelled the team over Minnesota is the big story this week, and the reason that lineup is a story is because McGee was not in it.
Mustafa Shakur	10.6	17.3	-6.7	Ahhh, so that's why he was in the D-League for so long. He still looks confident and competent out there, and maybe with more minutes could prove to be a solid backup PG.

NOTE: Yi Jianlian was left off this week's Keys to the Palace because he did not receive enough playing time for a fair evaluation.

NOTE #2: I only watched the first 2 games this week due to obligations at my 'real job.' I checked the box scores and read recaps, but feel free to let me know if I misjudged anything from the Minnesota and Detroit games. I am also semi-delirious from sleeping about 11 hours in the past 3 days combined.

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Never mind

I can’t win this argument.

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 6, 2011 11:58 PM EST reply actions

Blatche with 4 games of inefficient scoring...

49% shooting (52% TSP)….

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions

That all means nothing

Blatche has been the teams best over all player recently. Stats mean nothing. If that means he is not winning games for the team, no one else is either. It is so easy to make a full time player look so inefficient compared to a player who plays 1/3 of those minutes. If I multiply those 1/3 of the minutes by 3 and then multiply that over the course of a season look how efficient this player is. That is, until they actually play those minutes. Amazing how inefficient they begin to look. Lets put Booker against Garnett and Boozer and Jefferson and Randolph and Love and Bosh and Aldridge game after game and see how he does. Lets see if he can do 1/2 of what Blatche does out there. Its sort of stupid to quote stats when a player has to go against the best players in the game, game after game. Blatche has held his own out there and he is getting better. I think your stats are BS.

by hambonejackson on Mar 7, 2011 2:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Dray is playing better.

Unfortunately it’s the last the 30 games of the season again and can accomplish nothing other than salvage a bit of his tattered cred.

Let me ask you, let’s say the last 15 games he plays like he did as a starter last season. Do we really go into next year thinking “Ok, THIS time Dray is gonna be all day!” Or is it Fool me once, shame on you, Fool me twice, Fire the GM?

by DCrez on Mar 7, 2011 7:49 AM EST up reply actions

I agree he needs to have a consistent season, start to finish.

I really think the broken foot (and lost offseason) set him back a lot more than we think.

I think that if he makes it through next offseason unscathed, its fair to expect a solid and consistent season, and fair to criticize him if he doesn’t have one.

by jones-y on Mar 7, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

I think Blatche will be a better player next season

I think there were some problems this season in trying to integrate Blatche and Wall. I think Blatche is playing better because the team is using him better. i also see Blatche as an over all better player. I think issues are resolved, unless Blatche plans to sabotage the team this off season. I see no reason that he won’t come back a better player, in part, because he knows what his role is now. Now, if the team can figure out what to do with McGee.

by hambonejackson on Mar 7, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

quite possible, but not comforting

I would rather not depend on a guy who takes 70% of the season to get into shape. What if he sprains his ankle in August? Write off next season too? He had a pass for a long time on the foot and deservedly so, but there comes a point you look at him and see a guy who doesnt consider fitness to be a key aspect to becoming an elite player.

by DCrez on Mar 7, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

but there comes a point you look at him and see a guy who doesnt consider fitness to be a key aspect to becoming an elite player.

I don’t even think of Blatche as having “elite” potential any more – I’d just settle for good.…

What we’ve been getting for most of the season is below average….

And after almost 6 years, when do we stop expecting good, and just accept the fact that Andray Blatche is just an average player?

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

He is a 6'11" player who was picked in the middle of the 2nd round

and making about 6 mil this season. Where does this “elite” come from? Whats wrong with just being a good basketball player? And 6’11" and showing progress in his game. Some of the problems Blatche had this season were not his fault. It had a lot to do with how he was being used. The team had to look at Wall to figure out how to fit Blatche in to the their new offense. It didn’t help that Blatche was struggling with injuries and his own game. He has since improved exponentially on defense. He is more of a 2-way player and he has a much better shooting stroke and the team is simply using him more effectively now. The kinks are worked out. Now Blatche knows how he fits in to the offense. Earlier in the season I don’t even think he new what his role was, hence the confusion period. His scoring is on the rise again. His rebounding is getting more consistent, and he is a better defender, and hopefully next season, a better shooter. Whats wrong with any of this? At least he can start earning his contract.

by hambonejackson on Mar 7, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

Frankly he’s a terrible defender. He plays defense with as little passion as I’ve ever seen in a player. Maybe once in a while he’ll get blocked or for some reason with turn up the energy for two minutes and I can see he has some tools.

by MR on Mar 7, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Terrible or not,

He’s an upgrade over our previous starting PF.

AJ couldn’t defend a lollipop from a toddler, bless his heart.

by jones-y on Mar 7, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

-1

by MR on Mar 7, 2011 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

OK - so I get it...

He’s an average player, making slightly above average money

MLE = Average money , or $5.7 Million
Blatche making $5.9 Million this year $6.4 Next and $7.1 next

His PER is average (15.4)…
He shoots at a below average efficiency (for a PF) at 44%
ANY injury takes 3 times as long for him to get back to playing shape.
He is a below average rebounder (again, for a PF).
And, in my opinion, he’s a below average defender…

And this is the player the Wizards have invested 5-years and $35 Million….

So when he has a week when he plays AVERAGE, he gets a key…..

I get it….

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

Well he’s played like crap all year and he just had his best week of the season. Don’t begrudge him his key.

Besides, Young’s braids by themselves were bad enough to take away his key. Although rockin’ the fro mostly made up for it.

by MR on Mar 7, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

He is one of 3 players who will be with this team

Young and McGee are history.

by hambonejackson on Mar 7, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting, because just this deadline

it was reported Ernie was trying to move Blatche while not taking offers on Mcgee or Young.

by DCrez on Mar 8, 2011 7:29 AM EST up reply actions

Totally agree

Blatche has definitely been the best overall player recently.

And I am starting to think he was more injured then we knew all along.

I am interested in one stat in particular – consecutive game where Andray has a dunk. I think we are at 5 in a row. That is unheard of – finesse game my arse.

shine like bald head, smoke trees call me log head

by ThaCaronic on Mar 7, 2011 8:04 AM EST up reply actions

That or he just, for some reason

plays better this time of year.

Screw rational basketball analysis. I <3 Jordan Crawford.

by returnofswagger on Mar 7, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

He seems lighter, he could have played himself into shape

His rebounding and activity seem up a bit, too.

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by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 7, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Like I said... I won't win this argument...

But if Dray had a TSP of only 52% and got a key…..

And Nick Young had a TSP of only 52% BUT only got a guest pass…. Of course, Nick didn’t play in the only win of the week…. but he almost single-handedly keep the Wiz in the GS game…. and played well in the Pistons game… His shooting was “eh” for the week… but he played good defense, and attacked on Offense (15 trips to the line).

Just saying that it seems the bar is set a bit higher for certain players, than for others….

Blatche , who has been playing like crap – puts together a “meh” week – and gets a key…..

Young, who has been playing well – puts together a “meh” week – and gets a guest pass…..

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

I think when the Palace was set up it was stated that keys were handed out on a somewhat case by case basis with a kind of sliding scale.

by MR on Mar 7, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah - I get it...

I just think the scale keeps sliding just above where Nick’s performance was that particular week….

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Whereas

if Blatche doesn’t stink, he gets a key.

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

I haven't checked the archives but my impression is

Young’s been getting a lot of keys or at least guest passes this season.

Blatche has been locked out a lot. In fact I think the bouncers have thrown him out through the plate glass window a couple of times.

by MR on Mar 7, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

LOL

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

its a sliding relative scale

Think of it as kind of a ‘trending’ analysis similar to what japers rink does for their up, down, or steady weekly article.

So its based on was this a good week for that player? This was a great week for Dray, and an okay one for Nick. I kind of changed the scale though, so most are locked out instead of being ‘steady’ or getting a guest pass.

If this wasn’t trending, there would be nothing to say because Nick would be in every week and Dray locked out.

That said a normal week for this year’s Nick is good enough for a guest pass, whereas an average week for anyone else except for jimmy is probably locked out this season.

by Jon Kelman on Mar 7, 2011 6:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

But I though this was the "Palace of good play"

The Palace of good play….
Not the “Palace of he didn’t stink so bad”….
Not the “You have to play better than your norm, Palace”…..
Or the “If you stink all year, then play a little better you can get in Palace”.

too much? sorry…. just pokin fun..
I hated getting graded on a scale in school… Always thought it was a way to keep the underachievers from failing…. and to keep the teachers from having to explain why 3/4 of the class just failed the mid-term…..

As for Blatche:
His scoring was good (19 points per game), but it was not efficient scoring. He rebounded fine (9 per game) and I’ll take that every night. But two of the games he was torched on defense. Two games he had nice assist numbers, moved the ball, and didn’t disrupt the offense (and the Wizards, as a team, played well)…. but the other two games, the ball “stuck”, and he went ISO a lot (and the team offense suffered).

Blatche’s norm this year has been terrible… so when he becomes just “passable” – ie: not terrible… he gets a key..

Just tryin to understand the “sliding scale” thing…..

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

And by the way....

I’m fine with Nick Young getting a guest pass…. He had one great game. Didn’t shoot the ball particularly well the other two games…

Against the Pistons, he shot 44% (and 43% from 3), and went to the line 7 times – BUT it seemed he lacked energy…. Perhaps still feeling the effects of his illness…. It looked to me like he just ran out of gas with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter…. (he committed a turn over, missed a very make able shot, and missed two free throws).

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

Clearly, Nick Was Sick

He said he was totally gassed, nose running, right from the start.

Bullets fan stuck in CO.

by Krusty2 on Mar 7, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

Not as sick as Booker was against the TWolves unfortunately.

by MR on Mar 7, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Man showed heart

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 8, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions

I think Nick is pretty close to being a full-time palace resident

Even his off nights are still around 1.0 PPS and his FG%, AdjFG%, and Pts are all top10-ish in the league for SGs. Add that to the consistent effort he’s shown on defense…and he’s basically been our best player for whatever that’s worth on an horrible team

by DCrez on Mar 7, 2011 8:53 AM EST reply actions

I'm having my doubts. Live by the J die by the J.

Case in point: Wall hit a wide open NY who passed up a clear 3 for a covered 2. When Young hits it’s Wall to NY to hoop. Three other guys ran down to watch. If NY misses we never get the rebound. You’d think as soon as Young touched it everyone would box out.
I like Young I just think he’s keeping the Wiz from teamwork on offense.
I like NY as a high minutes 6th man who you put in for instant offence (Gil’s job in Orlando).
I want Crawford to get lots of minutes and become the starting SG. He can shoot and drive and pass. NY is loved but is one demensional and can be shut down and when He misses can lose focus.
Blatche picks up His game when NY is out, with Young the team seems to become spectators on offense.

by Janber on Mar 7, 2011 10:14 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Crawford doesnt look like he's 6'4" 195 pounds

Maybe it’s cause he has some sort of Quasimodo thing going on when he runs…but he looks way too small IMHO to check legit 2s of the league. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me and he has the proper size to be a good defender at SG, but it doesnt look like it to me. I really like that Nick is a real-deal SG rather than a ’tweener who big guys like Kobe, Wade, and Joe Johnson eat for lunch

by DCrez on Mar 7, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

I agree...

but I still like Crawford for 25-30 minutes a night as backup PG , and backup SG….

Generally speaking, the starting SG on most NBA teams is big (6’6" or bigger….. Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant, DeMar DeRozan, Manu, Iguodala, etc….)… and Nick is pretty good at defending those bigger guards…. not so good with the little guys…

But the backup SG on most teams is a smaller guy….

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

Rookies

It’s still December to Crawford. He got very little PT in Atlanta, he’s still figuring a lot out. He shouldn’t be judged with the same yardstick as Booker or Wall. His shot selection is terrible, but he shows some good signs.

I’ve noted lately how many rookies we’ve had out there all game. We have two rookies on the floor for almost the entire game, frequently three. We had four rookies on the floor for some short stretches recently. That’s pretty amazing.

by MR on Mar 7, 2011 10:30 AM EST reply actions

Second paragraph makes me smile

Its awesome that we actually are this young of a team, a year after gungate. Stockpile young guys and as long as they are on the court, a few of them(at least) are going to bee good NBA players eventually. And keep the payroll down. Because eventually cap space is going either fill the holes around the stars we develop, or bring us a star itself. These two things are what give me faith in the rebuild and maybe even in Ernie.

And I agree with you totally about Crawford. He is going to take some time. He has a pickup game style that needs to be refined. But he can do everything we could ask of him and more if he harnesses it. It is the nature of these types of players, there’s a chance he is never anything more than a JR Smith scenario, a shot-jacking, higlight reel. But I think he is a MUCH better basketball player than that. He can play D, he can distribute, and I like the intangibles that go beyond his physical abilities on the court.

Screw rational basketball analysis. I <3 Jordan Crawford.

by returnofswagger on Mar 7, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

I really like his passing ability so far, pretty impressive

Sometimes you think he’s John Wall he is so fast and looking to distribute

by DCrez on Mar 7, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

I can live with Dray shooting a middling percentage if he's passing the way he has lately

Webber wasn’t a particularly efficient scorer and Odom typically wasn’t super-efficient, but their passing really helps the team by turning guys into finishers and spot up shooters, rather than making Mo Evans or someone shoot off the dribble. Dray’s still got to be more active on defense, though; I remember an instance during a pick and roll last week where he just stood still and put his arms down, didn’t bother to go after the ball handler or stick with the roll man.

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by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 7, 2011 11:49 AM EST reply actions

I'm sorry, but I disagree...

.SOMEONE on the team has to be a high-efficiency scorer…. Either your PF or your Center should be getting 18 points a night on 55-60% shooting….

That’s why this team is called a “jump shooting” team…. and why they “live and die” by the jump shot… because they cannot generate any high quality shots inside.

When your shooting guard is shooting 45% from the field – you can live with that – especially if he’s hitting 41% of his threes….

But when your PF shoots 44% (31st in the League for Power Forwards) – that’s BAD…… especially when he’s putting up 15 shots a game (most on the team)….

No wonder the Wizards offense is so inefficient.

He's "delightfully cranky"

I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.

by Rook6980 on Mar 7, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

Blatche

Andray should not get keys. He should have to wait until someone else lets him in. :-)

Follow me on twitter - @CJ_202SB

by CJ Hempfield on Mar 7, 2011 3:13 PM EST reply actions

The gliding scale is confusing

And it takes focus away from the purpose of the metafor. I do like the idea of evaluating players on a weekly basis and i appreciate Jon’s effort in this.

How about next season we’ll do a ‘ladder’ or ‘stockmarket’ type thing so we can both judge a players individual week in relation to his performance on the season ànd we can have a trend type watch on who is where on the team’s MVP scale.

"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff

" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson

by Dutch Hoopfan on Mar 8, 2011 7:44 AM EST reply actions

Might as well drop this idea too

A matchup analisys plus bench assesment as part of a pre game analisys to start the gamethreads. Saw those on several other team blogs when i visite them prior to Wiz games and i really like the concept

"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff

" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson

by Dutch Hoopfan on Mar 8, 2011 7:45 AM EST up reply actions