Many of you are familiar with David Berri's wins produced metric, and many of you hate it. For the record, here are the top 3 win producers for this Wizards this season (note: the average player has .100 WP48, with WP48 = wins per 48 min.):
1. JaVale McGee .200 WP48, 7.9 WP
2. John Wall .088 WP48, 4.2 WP
3. Trevor Booker .135 WP48, 3.0 WP
It's pretty promising that the 3 most productive Wizards are the three players most likely to be with the team for years to come.
Anyway, the purpose of this post is to point out a small victory for the wins produced metric this season. As you all know, the current/former teams of Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, and Rudy Gay lost their stars for the year right around the all-star break.
How does this relate to wins produced? Well, according to wins produced, Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony are two of the more overrated players in the NBA. Rudy Gay has posted a career WP48 of .045, a mark that is well below average (although he has played well this season). Melo, on the other hand, is an above average player, but not nearly as above average as most NBA fans think. His career WP48 is over .100, and this season he posted a .142 WP48 mark with the Nuggets and has so far posted a .048 mark with the Knicks.
Williams, on the other hand, is rated as a very productive player this season. His .215 WP48 is one of the best in the NBA, and while he's not quite on the level of Chris Paul, he is an elite point guard.
So, according to WP, the Nuggets and Grizzlies should not have struggled as much as expected after losing their star players, while the Jazz should expect to suffer mightily. This obviously doesn't prove that wins produced is perfect, but I hope that it at least strengthens the metric in the minds of some.