Keys to the Palace: March to the Lottery

by Jon Kelman on Mar 28, 2011 2:39 AM EDT in Keys To The Palace

'No I don't have a dog house, I have a Palace of Good Play.' I'm looking for someone who's playing well so I can put them in that palace."

-Ed Tapscott

Another 0-4 week, and do you know that means? The lottery march is in full procession! 2 of the Wizards games this week were blowouts, but at least the Clippers game was exciting and the Warriors one fun.

In all seriousness the bright spots are going to be few and far between at this point. We have already seen Jordan Crawford's potential, Nick Young's emergence, and Trevor Booker's development, so there is not much else to get us fans 'out of bed.' The play of Derrick Williams and Jared Sullinger can seem almost as important as that of players already on the team.

We might as well take the optimistic view that we have picked up a few more ping pong balls to the point that we are now tied for 2nd-to-last in the league in wins with the T'Wolves, but we true fans (meaning any fan that still watches this team) still want to see some wins and even moral victories like the one against the Clippers. This draft is looking like a complete crapshoot anyway.....

Keys to the Palace

Player	Week 21 PER	Week 20 PER	Difference	Comment
JaVale McGee	17.2	16.9	0.3	Now that's more like it! yes, the Warriors didn't have a true center to offer any resistance, but JaVale took full advantage in having a career best scoring night. Not only were the scoring and rebounding there against Golden State, but he altered quite a few shots and I don't recall 1 goaltending. I guess I can find fault in scoring 13 points on 13 shots against the Nuggets, but then I can't forget the block of the year against Wesley Matthews.

Guest Passes

Player			Difference	Comment
Othyus Jeffers	3.3	-5	8.3	An NBA contract is a big deal, and even better is getting a 2nd 10-day contract. Those alone get him a Guest Pass. That 2nd contract appears to be more a product of Wizards injuries than on-court performance, so just a Guest Pass for now. He definitely worked hard and provided a little energy, which is always welcome.
Maurice Evans	9.5	8.8	0.7	He had a couple good efforts and a couple bad ones, so I think Guest Pass is about right. The Warriors game has to be his best work to date, with a terrific 23 and 8 with 6 free throws, great floor spacing, and a little variety to his standard catch and shoot style.
Yi Jianlian	10.1	9.9	0.2	A big week for Yi who has been dramatically improved of late; maybe it was that sweet picture I put up of him last week. I was tempted to go with a full Key, but I can't overlook the Warriors complete lack of size being the driving factor in his performance Sunday night. Earlier this week, I voted in the blog's poll that the Yi experiment should be over after this year, but I have now shifted my stance to a 'wait and see' approach. These next 10 games could be huge for him and his future.

Locked Out

Player		Week 18 PER	Difference	Comment
John Wall	15.2	15.1	0.1	He was great against the Clips even though he only shot 12-for-26 from the field. The problem is the other 3 games being relatively pedestrian. If he is going to be a leader of this young team, he cannot allow the blowouts and mini-meltdown at the end of the Clips game. He is too important to have bad games, and there is a direct correlation between his performance and the 2 blowouts.
Jordan Crawford	12.5	12.1	0.5	We all probably remember the effort against the Clippers, but let's not overlook that he shot 10-for-28 in that game. No, that is not a typo. 10 assists and 7 boards were nice in that game, but he shot 3-for-15 against Portland and 5-for-21 against the Warriors, yikes. The bright side is that he looks pretty comfortable being a playmaker, which is something this team almost completely lacks outside of Wall. The shot selection is a big issue though that has to be addressed.
Trevor Booker	15.3	15.6	-0.3	His numbers against Denver were great: 40 minutes, 4-7 from the field, 10 pts, 10 rbs, 3 blks, 2 assts, and 1 stl. Other than that though, there wasn't a whole lot to get excited about. It is too bad we don't have much in the way of other SF options, as right now is a great chance to test him out playing PF minutes. His development has been exciting though, and I can only hope the sore knee will keep him out of just 1 game.
Nick Young	14.4	14.7	-0.3	An awful game and then an injury recurrence, so yeah, not a good week. The most frustrating part is that we would all like to see him shake the knee injury and finish the season on a high note. He was off to a good start in a game that would suit his style, but who knows if he will play again this year.
Kevin Seraphin	8.6	8.3	0.3	This was not a terrible week for the young big man. The good is that he continues to show development on the offensive end, and I can't remember the last moving screen. The bad is that he had 5 fouls in 8 minutes against the Clippers, and 5 fouls in 17 minutes against the Blazers. Long term though, I'm still buying Seraphin's stock.
Cartier Martin	12.4	12.6	-0.2	He played a measly 21 minutes this week and didn't do a whole lot to get me excited. The emergence of Crawford has probably been a big reason for that. Even though the Wiz have just Cook Book as a SF who will definitely be here next year, I am not sure Cartier is going to be back with the team at this rate.
Hamady Ndiaye	6.3	6.8	-0.5	He just passes the minutes threshold for consideration, so not much to analyze here. He continues to get minutes with Dray injured, which is good for him, but isn't doing a ton with those minutes. I would have been curious to see him against an easier matchup in the Warriors to see if he could take advantage.

NOTE: Andray Blatche, Rashard Lewis, Josh Howard, and Mustafa Shakur were left off this week's Keys to the Palace because they did not receive enough playing time for a fair evaluation.

NOTE #2: I had some format issues this week, and given my need to get to bed at a reasonable hour, there are issues with player name links.

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Comments

Is it a little odd that with Dray out and last night Book too

that Seraphin gets so few minutes generally? In this wretched season that has boiled down to lottery balls and development? I was hoping he would get some quality burn last night against an undersized frontline but he barely saw the floor

by DCrez on Mar 28, 2011 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

But I guess I trust Flip’s judgment on the matter at this point. Maybe Flip just really doesn’t think his game is there yet.

Screw rational basketball analysis. I <3 Jordan Crawford.

by returnofswagger on Mar 28, 2011 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Good stuff from Javale lately

He has been playing as well as anybody against the weak competition. Even Chicago had a depleted frontcourt, selling the triple double a bit short in my opinion. But no question, he is hot right now. Now I am very curious to watch him against Utah and Miami(and lets be real, Miami’s frontline is sorry).

Javale is capable of disappearing on the court, along with all of the other things he is capable of. He has now shown that he can focus the energy and potential a little bit more. Now lets see if he can do it against a good team. I want to see him play a good game against a good basketball team, and I really hope that he doesn’t pull a disappearing act this week.

Screw rational basketball analysis. I <3 Jordan Crawford.

by returnofswagger on Mar 28, 2011 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

I don't really understand why John doesn't at least have a guest pass

First, it’s gonna be pretty rare when he shoots a good % because his jumper still isn’t there (though it’s getting better) but he takes the jump shots because that’s the only way he can improve. And you have a very short leash on a ROOKIE, saying that he can’t have a bad game… I’m not saying he’s played amazing but he’s been scoring and getting dimes recently, yes I agree, he’s not shooting it well enough but I think he’s without a doubt played well enough to have a guest pass.

Follow me on Twitter: @adamvolo

by adamvolo on Mar 28, 2011 8:58 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, i think its the gliding-scale-thing again

That is why I sugested a ladder or stockmarket or index type thing for next yr

"I'll be lounging on the couch, just chillin in my snuggie, klick to MTV so they can teach my how to douggie" (Buno Mars, The lazy song)

by Dutch Hoopfan on Mar 28, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry that sounds like a i'm being a jerk

And i don’t mean to. I like the idea of keeping track of the relative performances of the players, i just think the gliding scale is somewhat confusing

"I'll be lounging on the couch, just chillin in my snuggie, klick to MTV so they can teach my how to douggie" (Buno Mars, The lazy song)

by Dutch Hoopfan on Mar 28, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Man, I really hope our lottery pick ends up in the top 3

Anything outside of the top 3 makes me nervous. I would be happy with Derrick Williams, Kanter, or Barnes and being in the top 3 guarantees us we get a shot at 1 of them. Let’s say we end up taking Barnes and somehow turn our ATL pick into another lottery pick, would you guys be cool with drafting Henson of UNC to lock down the PF spot? I am not sure what I think of a Henson/ McGee front court but damn that would be a long, athletic, shot altering frontline.

by jeffco01 on Mar 28, 2011 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

I;ve read scouts arent thrilled with Barnes athleticism and that it could limit his ceiling

but the more i actually see him the more impressed i am with his frame. That kid looks like he can easily pack on a significant amount of muscle without getting bulky, he looks built to take contact and still finish in the pros. And it was good to see him have a mini-takeover to get UNC back in it even if he faltered a little down the stretch. He seems to be a gamer and with the year’s draft you are right we have to be top3 to have a shot at him

by DCrez on Mar 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes it seems like it needs to be a top 3 pick, what with Sullinger gone...

Actually top 4 would do OK, assuming that Cleveland goes first and stays with its alleged intent to draft Irving, the point guard from Duke… Then Williams, Kanter and Barnes would be 2-3-4… It gets real dicey if we get stuck at the magic 5 like two years ago… Then it’s “Do we take a flyer on Perry Jones or trade it to Minneapolis for ohh, Wesley Johnson and Nikola Pekovic?”

Henson I think is worth a shot at 17-18-19…

Anyways, I hope the JaVale bashers are on mute for a while after last night.

by khrabb on Mar 28, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

As a JaVale basher, I am on mute.

My issues with JaVale were never with his effort, but what he tried to do with that effort. Last night was an all around excellent game, his decision making was very good, and he didn’t try to do too much when he was on the court. I have no complaints with his game, for now. But if (when) he starts taking fadeaway jumpers again, I’m sure you will hear from me. haha

by Alpha_Snail on Mar 28, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I am with you on this one

His effort has usually been pretty good, although there were occasional moments where he gave up on a play defensively. A perfect example of how he seems to have changed for the better was the swat on Blake Griffin in the Clips game. He went for a Kaman pump fake at the free throw line and took himself out of the play. Now there have been a decent amount of times where JaVale would just give up and stand there until the play was over but this time he stuck with the play. He ran back down the paint and Kaman dished it off to Blake. JaVale timed it perfectly and swatted the hell out of Blake’s layup. That play, to me, was a huge one for JaVale. I hope it continues the rest of the way.

On a side note, if we end up with the worst record in the league and get the most ping pong balls, what is the farthest we could drop in the lottery? I remember when we had the 2nd best chance in ’09 and we dropped down to 5. Is the furthest the #1 team can drop #3 or is it an even steeper drop?

by jeffco01 on Mar 28, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

If we get the worst record

The lowest we could drop is 4th. The top 3 picks are the picks that the ping pong balls go for, after that, record determines your spot. So if we don’t get a ping pong ball picked, we drop to 4th with the worst record, 5th with second worst, etc.

by gray16 on Mar 28, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks. So It really does not make much of a difference if we have the worst or 2nd worse record.

Although guaranteeing a pick in the top 4 would ease my nerves a little. That April 1st matchup with Cleveland will be a big showdown, haha.

by jeffco01 on Mar 28, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

We are guaranteed top 6

Cleveland’s locked up the 1st worst, Wizards have same # of wins as Wolves who have a much much harder schedule meaning they are highly likely to end up with fewer wins and thus are a virtual lock for 2nd. Kings are closest other team at 3 games out of 3rd meaning Wizards are a lock for 3rd. 3rd worst record means furthest we can fall is 6, so top 6 is the range to look at in predicting Wizards picks.

by Emmet O'Neal on Mar 28, 2011 5:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

I wouldn't necessarily say Cleveland is a lock for worst

This Wizards team lately has definitely been the worst I have seen in a while. We have won 2 of our last 19 and still have two matchup’s left with Cleveland. I bet the Cavs still end up with the worst record but it’s going to be close. I only see us winning 2 of our remaining 10.

by jeffco01 on Mar 28, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

We are 3 games back of Cleveland with 10 games left a piece

We play Cleveland twice. Assuming Cleveland wins both, both teams have 8 other games. We would have to make up 1 game to tie, more than 1 to pass Cleveland.
Wizards:
2 games against lottery teams below .500
2 games against teams under .500 in competitive playoff races (higher/lower seed within 2 games)
1 game against team over .500 with playoff seed settled
3 games against teams over .500 in competitive playoff races

Cavaliers:
2 games against lottery teams below .500
3 games against teams under .500 in competitive playoff races (higher/lower seed within 2 games)
3 games against teams over .500 in competitive playoff races

Add to that the fact that Cleveland is not taking any chances on losing its 25% odds. Cleveland played 10 players against Atlanta last night no fewer than 17 minutes and no more than 27 minutes a piece. That might be the worst evidence of tanking I have ever seen, playing virtually your entire roster roughly equal minutes.

by Emmet O'Neal on Mar 28, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions