Roster Assessment. Predictions the rest of the way.
by oatmealeater on Mar 1, 2011 11:26 AM EST
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I think the Wizards may have the worst roster in the league at this point, or are tied with Sac. If we get to 20 wins it will be a feat. I think we will have the worst record in the league by the end of year. That's right -- the Cavs will overtake us, as will the TWolves. Not trying to be a downer -- just a thought. I'm thinking 2-4 games, we'll win. Taking a leap on that.
Any thoughts?
Cavs lost Jamison, Williams, but "gained" B-Chubby, (Erden and Harangody, too). Kings have added Thornton which helps considering the injuries to Evans.
Raptors seem to be playing better, and Nets have added Deron Williams.
We got Jordan Crawford.
The roster right now is damnation. Our vets are hobbling to the end of the season and Blatche has -- and this is coming from a strong defender of his -- shown himself as, at best, a 1-in-5er. McGee cannot hold his own among other centers. Hilton's gone, and he continues to dribble up court. This is not to discredit his improvement or that of Booker, Young, Seraphim, etc.
Yes, we've got scorers and creators in the backcourt, and a serviceable bench player in Mo Evans, but no finishers, defense, our rebounding.
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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So what?
The question is what will these players look like in the 2012-13 season and future seasons.
No, the question is...
How will we do the rest of the way. This will have an impact on our draft position. I understand that you think this is irrelevant, but stepping back from the trades - a major part of the NBA season -, I think it’s worth the talk to discuss predictions the rest of the way. Considering how much it changes a roster, it’s similar to preseason predictions.
I think they’ll be in a near free-fall the rest of the way.
In all seriousness, if you want a player development thread for 12-13, that’s fine, but I’d like to get feedback on the rest of the season.
by oatmealeater on Mar 1, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I see
I read your post as complaining about the poor quality of the roster. But I understand now that you were asking for predictions the rest of the way.
The Wizards are still about .500 at home. I’m guessing about 5 to 9 wins the rest of the way.
by disgrunted on Mar 1, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Im guessing we end up with at least 20 wins
Maybe a couple more
I've been torn between drafting a SF and a low post guy with our lottery pick
But after watching our pathetic front line against the Bulls I am now leaning toward a guy like Sullinger or Kanter. Sullinger’s size and lack of athleticism scares me a little but people said the same thing about Boozer and Love coming out but Boozer was DESTROYING our guys last night. Boozer isn’t a superstar but he is a borderline all star every year. The measurements at the NBA combine will be big for sullinger. If he actually does stand at 6’9" I am not as worried but if he is something like a shade below 6’8" that makes things tough. His wingspan looks great so that makes up for some things and you gotta love his high motor. If we could get back in the top 10 and hope a player like Barnes or T. Jones is there that would be awesome.
Sullinger/Kanter or bust
Perry Jones has struggled defensively, rebounds poorly, and is only shooting a high percentage because virtually all of his points are from dunks and easy layups. I think scouts are ignoring the holes in his game and glowing over his potential because of how weak this draft class is. And, to be honest, I don’t think the draft class is that week. It’s missing any dominant scorers, but scoring is the most overrated statistic in the nba, so I don’t see that as much of an issue. I’d much rather see the Wizards take a player who’s almost a sure 10 and 10 than a wing who has the potential for 25 a game.
by zl on Mar 1, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
My answer
Cleveland will not overtake us. The rest (Toronto, Minn, NJ, Sacto) are all bunched too close to call. I don’t think we have the worst active roster in the league either for current or future.
I will be rooting for wins all year.
Actually - I think the Wizards will win some games down the stretch....
Cleveland has 23 games left, 13 against losing teams… they could improve a bit…
Minnesota has 22 games left – but 16 are against winning teams – they will tank…
Sacramento also has lots of games against winning teams… 17 of their final 24 are winners.
Washington has 23 games left – with 14 against non-winning teams. . I think they’ll make a move upward in the standings… Sucks for us and a lottery pick….
Toronto has 22 games left, 12 against losers. They may drop below Washington.
New Jersey has 22 games left , 12 against losing teams – but they also just picked up D-Will – and I think he’ll win a bunch of games for them.
So I see the standings ending up like this:
Minnesota with 18 wins
Cleveland with 19 wins
Sacramento with 19 wins
Toronto with 23 wins
Washington with 25 wins
New Jersey with 25 wins
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
You’re predicting 10-13 finish for the Wiz? That’s bold. I think we’ll win another 6 games.
by MR on Mar 1, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
10 more wins is probably 3 or 4 too many
I would be happy with 20-22 wins to be honest. I feel like even that is an optimistic prediction.
Well I think we’re about to win 2 in a row (knock wood). Then I think we’ll win at least one of the Cleveland games, one of the Clippers games, one or two against another bad opponent (NJ, Detroit, Mil, GS, Denver, Utah or Toronto) and maybe one surprise win. So I guess I see 6-8 wins.
by MR on Mar 1, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
I could actually see them winning the next 5 in a row....
Golden State at home tomorrow I think will be the toughest… GS is playing well lately (5-5 in their last 10)…
But at home against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are almost as bad as the Wizards on the road (4-25) – the Wizards should win that one..
Then they go on the road to Detroit… and the Pistons are a mess right now…As long as the players are revolting against Head Coach John Kuester, they’ll remain a mess. The Wizards get their second road win in this one…
They get a couple days off before hosting the Milwaukee Bucks… and although the Wiz lost at Milwaukee, they beat the Bucks the last time here…. I count this one as another win…
Finally, 3 days later (plenty of rest, plenty of practice time), the Wizards host the Los Angeles Clippers… and although Blake Griffin has the whole world excited about the Clippers, they’re still a terrible team and they’re playing poorly lately (2-8 in their last 10)… The Wiz youngsters, excited to be playing in front of a sold out crowd at Verizon Center – go out and put on a show for the faithful – and beat the Clips handily….
After that they’ll come back down to earth as OKC and Chicago will throw consecutive beat downs on the young Wiz…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Wayyyy too optimistic
On paper we could rattle off some consecutive wins against these bad teams. But think about the make-up of our team, the desire to play hard, the basketball IQ. No way we can put all that together to form a winning streak. The stars, planets, and solar systems would all have to align for that to occur.
I would also like to see what the + – is when Blatche and McGee are on the court together at the same time. It’s gotta be bad.
by PhenomenalSwag on Mar 1, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
Like I said
the hardest one is that first game against GS…. they win that one, things could snowball….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Interesting predictions...
Mine is less informed, just on hunch…4 wins.
We’ve got 10, 6, and between 5 and “a couple more” than that.
Anybody want to get a poll going? I can’t do it off a reply, though I could just start a new post. Rook’s got the most informed post, perhaps that could serve as the lead-in?
The way the Wiz have been playing, will be lucky to win 20 games. We should at least have a top five pick in the draft. But we should at least have one of the lowest payrolls in the league next year (barring no one offers Nick Young some insane contract).
Chicago could use a Nick Young
that’s about the only thing they’re missing. SG is their weakest link.
by PhenomenalSwag on Mar 1, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
In Chicago
Nick Young would be a near all-star quality guard – and with that Bulls defense behind him, (and of course the added publicity, reputation, credibility and marketing that playing for a “marquee” team brings) he would have the potential for All Defensive team….
I can see it now…. His scoring average would go up by 4-5 points a night just based on the extra free throws he’d get for all the calls he’s not getting now….. He’d be taking charges right and left and getting steals and blocks left and right… (Why try for a charge or go for a block as a Washington Wizard – you’ll only be charged with a blocking foul )… But as a Chicago Bull, all of a sudden those blocks become charges….Those drives to the basket become And-1’s ….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
by Rook6980 on Mar 1, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
It is way going out on a limb saying he would average 4 or 5 more points a game simply because the refs like the Bulls better.
And I have been thinking about this theory lately… What if John Wall is the answer to Nick’s spike in production this year. Is it possible that Wall is inflating his numbers because he is really that good of a PG. I know, Nick still has to hit the shots, and he has been doing it very well. But we see numbers inflated by star PG’s all the time. And Nick is exactly what Wall may need on the court. Nick often is able to camp in the corner and wait for Wall to draw his defender. And I have seen Wall make some crazy kickouts to the guy so far.
So maybe Nick is the first case of many, if Wall making guys around him better. Many of Rose’s assists come on dump offs to his bigs and fewer on kickouts like Wall’s do. Maybe Nick’s production drops if he doesn’t have pass-first PG.
Screw rational basketball analysis. I <3 Jordan Crawford.
by returnofswagger on Mar 2, 2011 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
If NY goes to the Bulls he will take WAY fewer shots.
No way his scoring average goes up. And as long as Wade and Kobe are in the league he will never be All-D team either.
by MR on Mar 2, 2011 6:46 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt Young would be taking WAY fewer shots… Right now Korver and Brewer are playing the bulk of the SG minutes for Chicago and take around 12.1 shots per game… with Keith Bogans picking up the scraps ( 3.4 shots per game)..
Nick is taking about 14.5 shots per game…. So you’re right – perhaps his scoring average wouldn’t go up by 4-5 points per game…. more like 2-3…
(2 fewer shots = 2 fewer points, but 2-3 more fouls drawn, 4-5 more free throws)-
With better screens, I could see Nick taking a couple shots less per game, but still improving his scoring average by becoming more efficient (better screens, means more open shots), and getting more calls at the rim….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
The wiz seem to be focusing more on development than winning
which means that they are going to continue to lose games. What are they now? About 2-15 for their last 17 games? I think this trend will continue because players like Crawford, Seraphin and Booker, their new toys, will see increased playing time with Wall. I don’t expect this to translate into wins. I will give them a generous 3 wins for the rest of the season. I figure they will beat Cleveland in the NBAs grand finale.
They are 2 and 15 over their last 17 games….. one of the toughest stretches of games I’ve ever seen watching this team.
They played 15 teams with winning records in that span…. 9 road games… and when they did play at home, they usually got one of the top teams in the League (San Antonio, Dallas, Miami, Orlando and Chicago)… An absolutely BRUTAL stretch with 7 sets of back-to-back games… and four of those back-to-back sets involved traveling between games….
I saw this stretch early in the year and knew that even if the Wizards somehow caught lightning in a bottle and played well before the All-Star break, and were somehow still in the hunt for a Playoff berth – this stretch would absolutely kill them…
ON THE OTHER HAND
The remainder of the season (23 games) is a cake walk compared to what they just went through. The Wizards get to play some of the bottom dwelling teams (Golden State TWICE, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Detroit TWICE, the Clippers TWICE, Toronto, New Jersey, and Cleveland TWICE).. So 11 out of the 23 games are against the 10 WORST teams in the NBA.
Only 6 back-to-back sets. Mostly there is plenty of rest between games.. The only really hard stretch is at the end of the year when they play Boston, then Atlanta, then Boston again…. but by then, both teams will probably be resting their big guns for the Playoffs (Doc Rivers is famous for resting his big 3 for several games down the stretch)…
I think, and I said this even earlier in the year, that the Wizards have a very good chance to win a bunch of games between now and the end of the season….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
The last 17 games the Wizards played
Would have taxed even Boston or the Lakers….. 10 of those 17 games were against the top 8 teams in the League. Not just a brutal stretch… but one that had to tax the player’s energy and will power as well… so many games in such a short period… 17 games in 34 days… 7 sets of back-to-backs…. A grueling 4 game Western road trip (OKC, Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans)….then they get home and have to play Orlando and Atlanta back-to-back at home.
Whoever made up the schedule for this year really had it in for the Wizards……. Like I said, that’s as tough a stretch of games as I think I’ve ever seen – and I’ve been a Bullets/Wizards fan for 45 years…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Plenty of winnable games
but I’d like to see us focus more on developing chemistry between the young guys. Wall, Young, Crawford, Booker, Seraphin, Shakur, and McGee. I’d like to see all of them get the majority of available minutes with Howard, Lewis, and Evans just going along for the ride.
by PhenomenalSwag on Mar 1, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
I think the west coast swing, even though it's against some of the lesser teams, is going to be tough too.
Let’s not fool ourselves. We’ve only won 1 road game. 5 games in 7 nights on the road is going to be tough
by MR on Mar 1, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
I would say 5 wins plus or minus 2.BTW if there is a lock out for next season?
Do we get another Lottery pick for 2012 draft? That would be awesome for us.
JW plus 2 lottery picks with what we already have. 8 )
Yeah - I would imagine they would have a draft lottery.....
And the lottery teams would be the same…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
An interesting question
It would probably make the 2011 draft weaker (would they even have one?) and 2012 stronger.
by MR on Mar 2, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Well, the 2011 draft is scheduled for June 23rd....
but the current Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t expire until June 30th….
So – my expectation is that there WILL be a draft – but those draft picks will not be able to be signed until July 1 (or whenever a new CBA is signed). I suppose that any players drafted would lose their College eligibility. They could always go overseas and play for a year…since they would not be signed to an NBA contract.
If the entire season is lost to a lock-out; I expect they’ll have another draft in June 2012…. and unless David Stern comes up with some way of gaming the system to give Los Angeles or New York or Chicago or Boston the #1 pick, they will use the same method of determining draft order (lottery).
But a lock-out seems kind of a high price to pay for two lottery picks…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
My fear
is that a lot of the underclassmen will stay in school, making the 2011 draft extremely weak. Then they’ll play the season and in 2012 when all the talent hits we’ll have a worse pick.
by MR on Mar 2, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Well if the draft IS weak
then we wont get too much better. And then we will be sitting around the same position as this year. Hypothetically of course.
Screw rational basketball analysis. I <3 Jordan Crawford.
by returnofswagger on Mar 2, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
Ouch headache.
Stop with those questions.
Screw rational basketball analysis. I <3 Jordan Crawford.
by returnofswagger on Mar 2, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Given how Booker is making an impact right now as a 23 year old man
and as a four year college player, I don’t mind seeing us picking up another one of these seniors in the 2011 Draft since they are also in many cases more mature than 23 year old NBA players who were in the league since what would have been their sophomore year in college. They also can give us high energy and get us more wins. The new CBA may be structured a little differently to keep the college guys in for at least two years, but also allow high schoolers to go pro (maybe they limit the number of HS’ers based on a consensus or something)….
at least 6 more wins.....
…team is full of a bunch of young players so, other than blatche, you probably can count on them to play hard all the time and win a few against some teams that no longer care …. at the moment, the wiz are certainly one of the three worst teams in terms of talent but i dont imagine most of these guys will be here 2 years from now
Last night...
A loss against Golden State. I was thinking they would fold, but some nice fight. Here comes the easier stretch in their schedule, so we’ll see.
I still think 4 wins.
Melt down
With the unwillingness of EG to set standards for the players (on and off the court) and the inability of Flip to connect with the players, I see possibility of increasing strife and finger pointing among the players.
McGee has checked out, and Blatche is still out of shape. Young has a bum knee. Wall is getting dubious.
I’d play Seraphin, Booker and Crawford quite a bit for the remainder of the season to see if these guys can be decent bench players in the next year or two.
Either way, the Wiz could easily break the Cav’s recent record.
McGee has checked out, and Blatche is still out of shape. Young has a bum knee. Wall is getting dubious.
What does this mean? McGee’s checked out? I don’t think so. Dubious? How so?
by MR on Mar 3, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
McGee is going through the motions. He is not giving 100%. He is not actively engaged in the flow of the game. He’s in the mode that he’ll be around longer than Flip and Whitless, so why bother. (This behavior is somewhat rational given how he has been “managed”).
Wall sees himself as talented, but looks at the W-L and is wondering whether he is being tainted. He is probably getting skeptical that the ship will get righted any time soon. Players like Z and Bibby don’t want to play here; what does this imply for Wall?
Wall sees himself as talented, but looks at the W-L and is wondering whether he is being tainted.
You say this based on what? 100% speculation.
I actually think McGee has been playing hard, at least he did last night. Not smart or particularly well, but he was hustling.
Players like Z and Bibby have nothing at all to do with Wall. They are a million years old. They are on their last gasps and don’t want to sit through a rebuild. They are bald. He is the face of a young franchise with a new, promising owner.
by MR on Mar 3, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Do you seriously beleive in your own speculation here Izman?!
i mean… are you serious dude?? What led you to believe this is what is going on in John’s head?
"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff
" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson
by Dutch Hoopfan on Mar 3, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Look at the body language....
…and what he says about players not trying. Do you think he’s content with the current situation? Who wouldn’t be wondering on this team? They have a horrible record, they’ve lost 7 in a row, and they just lost at home to GS. Teammates get into fist fights and the players are pointing fingers. Not a good situation – no speculation on that point.
There are players who have checked out
and its those who are injured. Some will play hard because they are healthy. Wall is a terrific player. He is tired.This is the most games he has ever played in this time period. Wall amazes me with all the energy he plays with right now. He is not giving up on anything.
No one is giving up on this team. Not the fans, coaches or players. They still have 22 games to go. They will pull it back together. Its part of the learning process for some players. They have never been through so many games before. Blatche is spending his 1st full time season. Young is going to learn. He has never been a full time player before. Lewis is the only player who starts that knows a full time schedule.
by hambonejackson on Mar 3, 2011 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, 10 games left
Those who said 4 games in the last 23 (me!) are on target. Brutal injury stretch for the Wiz.
They do have Charlotte, Detroit, and Cleveland twice. We never play well against Detroit, it feels like. I’m sticking to 2 wins in the next 10, and only one against Cleveland.
Oh...
And Sacramento has created a nice buffer. We are firmly the 2nd/3rd worst team.
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