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Putting the Pieces Together: How the Wizards Should Build Their Next Championship Team


Speaking with Rook about his article on Nick Young and the fact that we both compare Sushi to Rip Hamilton got me thinking. If Nick is a rich man's Rip Hamilton, then the Wizards might already have a few parts of their next championship squad in place.

The only player guaranteed to be on the team next year and beyond is John Wall, but the most efficient way to build a contender is not trade all our assets for a 2nd superstar. I am not saying that trading all our assets for a star is necessarily the wrong move, but the most solid and fastest way to build is keep some of the current parts. With that in mind, I see possibly 3 parts of this future championship roster already here: Wall, Nick, and JaVale McGee.

Nick's similarity to Rip Hamilton made me immediately think of the 2003-2004 Pistons, who were the only team in recent memory to win a title without one of the top-5 or even top-10 players in the league (also a team that used 3 former Bullets in their starting 5...kill me). That team succeeded with a remarkably strong and balanced starting 5, not unlike the current Boston Celtics, which is in stark contrast to the Heatles. We are still unsure of Wall's ceiling, but every team should have a vision of how to construct their roster, and I think those Pistons are a great model for the Wizards to follow. I also think that in a league where teams are trying to put superstars together, a different approach could prove to be an advantage. I will now try to play Ernie Grunfeld and figure out how the Wizards can actually emulate those Pistons......

Star-divide

We may have a better version of Rip and a PG likely to surpass the impact and production of Chauncey Billups (all rookie PGs struggle on D, so Wall's defensive numbers are not a concern in terms of matching Billups), so this title team is off to a great start! Now, what about the remaining starting spots?

I will be taking a few leaps in this analysis, so bear with me. My first big leap is that JaVale McGee develops, particularly on the defensive end. I don't think JaVale will ever reach the defensive heights of Ben Wallace, but I see similarities in both being good athletes suited to put backs and alley-oops offensively (wait, did Big Ben ever play offense, or did he just wait back on defense?), and being a presence defensively. While Big Ben was a great individual and team defender, if JaVale can channel his shot blocking abilities, he can at least be a great presence in the middle. I know team defense is a skill that can be learned, like just about all others, but I can't imagine JaVale making the leap from where he is now with consistent lapses in concentration to being the ultra-focused quarterback of a great defense. The difference between the two players defensively can be partly offset by JaVale's offense, but Wallace is the stronger contributor overall.

Fortunately, the Wizards seem to have edges at PG and SG, so the dropoff from Big Ben to skinny JaVale may be offset. I know you are probably thinking that Billups+Hamilton+Wallace>Wall+Young+McGee, but our guys are still growing and again, bear with me. If these 3 Wizards can provide similar production in aggregate to the comparable Pistons players, then how do the Wizards fill the remaining and less obvious roster holes?

I will work backward from the center spot, as that's the Wizards biggest hole in this scenario. The Pistons PF was former Bullet Rasheed Wallace. Sheed was a great 2-way player and the guy who put that team over the top after he was acquired during the season.

My initial reaction is that JaVale lacks the strength of Ben Wallace, and the Wizards version of Sheed should thus be a bit more of a 'banger.' This idea doesn't work though because the Wizards PF would not suddenly be guarding centers while JaVale guarded PFs. I think the bigger issue is that I have a hard time seeing JaVale as the quarterback of a great team defense. I know the same sentiment could have been said even more strongly for a young Ben Wallace, but barring an almost equally impressive leap by JaVale, the Wizards PF will have to be a great team and individual defender. With that in mind, Sheed only contributed about 14 ppg while shooting 44% or less, so the Wizards PF does NOT have to be a huge offensive contributor. I am thinking draft is the way to go to find this player. Whoever this player is may not even be in college yet, but the guy who stands out to me is Jared Sullinger, who would definitely provide enough offense, but may have trouble staying with quicker/smaller PFs one-on-one. Color Rook skeptical.

I think the SF spot is the toughest one to fill when the comparable Pistons player is the longtime underrated Tayshaun Prince. He was only in his 2nd season when Detroit won the title, but was already an elite defensive player. He managed 4.6 WS in 2003-2004, which is better than all but 1 year each of Ron Artest's and Bruce Bowen's careers (and my minimal research didn't yield anyone that consistently good on D). So to match the Pistons, the Wizards have to find an absolute defensive beast of a SF. In terms of who is in the NBA right now and might fit this mold and is reasonably obtainable, I have Gerald Wallace, Arron Afflalo, and not much else. The good news is that maybe, if the Wiz have a horseshoe up their butt, Trevor Booker could develop into an elite defensive stopper. His offensive game is very different from Prince's perimeter style, which could cause problems as that would leave this Wizards lineup with almost no perimeter shooting, but the defense is what's important here.

I know what you're thinking. Jon, you're crazy, a Wall-Young-Booker/Prince clone/Sullinger/McGee is laughably awful. But let's remember that all of these guys are going to improve and I am taking a very optimistic view on each one's development. The bigger issue is that this Pistons team was just such an outlier from how just about every other championship team has been constructed. An old 82games.com article shows that every title team has an all-NBA first teamer or all-NBA defensive first teamer. Ben Wallace was the only person to fit this criteria on the Pistons, and his impact on that team cannot be understated. I am not sure John Wall will ever be a top-5 player in this league (or top-8 in efficiency); he will battle Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc for the the honor of being the top PG, and that is just a ridiculous group of young talent. I don't think having the 6th versus 5th best defensive player in the league will make a huge difference, as the 82games.com article suggests, but this underscores the great flaw in my Wizards model being JaVale McGee playing the role of Ben Wallace.

Maybe the Pistons team model wouldn't work anymore, maybe the Wizards trade the house for a 2nd star to pair with Wall, and maybe we don't find the right coach even if we get the right mix of players, but at least this would give our rebuilding efforts a direction, and one that may not be so crazy.

Poll
How Should the Wizards Build Their Team?
Follow the Pistons Model
216 votes
Do Anything to Acquire a 2nd Superstar
178 votes
Other Ideas (Explain in the Comments)
42 votes

436 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 85 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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De-fence (clap clap)

I do think the Pistons are a great model to aspire towards, however we need to keep in mind that they were an elite defensive outfit. Not just because of Ben Wallace, but everyone was great, and that included Coach Larry Brown. Dropping off to Flip Saunders (hmm, he seems familiar…) the following season, they were able to stay in contention, but were never able to take that next step to championship again.

Plus, I think having an elite defensive team and being in contention for a while will make you a more attractive FA destination. We could use the Pistons model to eventually move to a 2nd superstar model.

First 2 steps IMO, fire Ernie and fire Flip.

by Amin Vafa on Feb 7, 2011 2:14 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe a better question is which team we should emulate in building

And why not Chicago? They drafted a PG No. 1. I know Chicago is not an elite, championship contender yet, but they would be if they got one of the Big Three Heatles. They just missed, IMO.

by Unselds on Feb 7, 2011 2:24 PM EST reply actions  

Who knows, they might win the East....have barely had Boozer and Noah together

They were on a 7 game win streak when Noah got hurt. Chicago is the perfect team for the Wizards to emulate. It’s realistic to think that Wall can be our Rose and that maybe Mcgee could be our Noah, then add the right FA…more realistic than hoping we get crazy lucky in the draft like OkC

by DCrez on Feb 7, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Great thought provoking article

It makes my head hurt to try and conceive of how they will contend without being very lucky. The draft this year is supposedly weak, Blatche is not as good as hoped; Can he be traded for a first rounder somehow and maybe we get lucky in a late round pick. Pistons were very lucky that Ben Wallace turned out to be so good; Celtics were very lucky Rondo was so good. The Bulls were lucky that Noah is so good. Lakers and Heat are not lucky, but many championship teams have had some luck and taking chances without taking on big contracts is how you have a shot at luck in the NBA. Free agency rarely works.

by tgmcgill on Feb 7, 2011 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

I hate to ask this, not sure how I feel about it myself...

but how do we feel about McGee versus Bynum? On the court, off the court, injury history, development questions, everything on the table…with Hinrich possibly in demand, and the Lakers reportedly willing to deal Bynum…we’d have to almost certainly give up McGee

by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 7, 2011 3:08 PM EST reply actions  

ugh

possibly have to take back Steve Blake or Shannon Brown (at which point they would probably try for Nick)…

by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 7, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Whats Bynum making? 11 mil?

and he can’t put in a full season, so I don’t see that. Maybe N’Diaye is the teams insurance policy against McGee. Whether is a draft pick or a free agent I think they should hedge against McGee.

by hambonejackson on Feb 7, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Bynum is much better than McGee

Bynum has had injury problems but he has all the pieces that McGee is missing. He’s stronger, smarter, better offensively on the block, and most of all he can rebound. I don’t even see the comparison. McGee had one rebound against Orlando and six against the Hawks and we are even debating whether he is worth keeping over Bynum? Bynum doesn’t throw down alley-oops but he kills McGee in every other aspect of the game.

by seewhite on Feb 8, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Build through the draft for now, maybe sign a great free agent later.

Our window won’t be 2-3 years, it will be more like 10-12 years, usually with a couple bad years in between. This years draft isn’t looking great, but I think that Harrison Barnes drop is a blessing for the Wizards. He has by far the most potential of all players in the draft and he fills a need. He does need to improve his current play, but even if he doesn’t live up to his potential in college, he can be a great player in 3-4 years from now.

Skins rule

by Horcasitas4 on Feb 7, 2011 3:58 PM EST reply actions  

The window won't open for a couple of years.

J.Wall can’t be the only guy on a championship team. Then again, an aging John Wall can win with great players…but that’s more than 15 years from now.

Skins rule

by Horcasitas4 on Feb 7, 2011 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Couple of minor slots filled?

Maybe Booker can be our Corliss Williamson, and Yi can be our Mehmet Okur.

by yop32 on Feb 7, 2011 4:16 PM EST reply actions  

Do anything to acquire a 2nd superstar??

didn’t know we already had a superstar on our team

by koop1122 on Feb 7, 2011 4:39 PM EST reply actions  

You echo my sentiment....

I think Wall may get there, but right now this is really a very weak team.

That said, there is almost no choice but to stick it out with Wall, Young and McGee. Booker is definitely part of the long-term mix as a 7th or 8th man, but I am not at all encouraged by the idea of making him over into a 3… He is not that type of scorer and never will be.

The fact is that the WIzards need help of the sort that is not available on the current roster or on the current market of tradeable players.

Now if all of a sudden Blatche could put on a run like he did in the closing weeks of last season, a lot would be forgiven. More likely that barn door is closed.

The so-called experts say this is not a good draft either, but if we were to get Sullinger I think the results would be quite pleasant… say at the level of Elton Brand.

I do hope that the Wizards engage in some immediate housecleaning at deadline this year, and I hope that is followed by settling on a rational starting lineup and substitution pattern. Hinrich, for example, will never be worth more than he will be to a team like the Lakers now, but not for Blake… better to re-sign Shakur and ask LA for Caracter and the trade exception the Lakers got from the Nets for Vujacic. If Mark Cuban wants Lewis, do the deal for Caron’s expiring contract, a draft pick and a back-up center not named Haywood.

Oh, and if the team wants to win using the Piston model, it needs a coach more like the one who made that model work, except that our guy should stick around so that management will not have to turn that model over to someone who has no clue how to fly it.

by khrabb on Feb 7, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I think we put way too much stock into Wall being this superstar type player

I give him some slack because he is a 20 year point guard in the NBA which isn’t an easy thing to do. But I just see too many holes in his game to get to that superstar level (I see superstars being the lebrons, kobes, wades, howards, durants…)

I agree with you alot on what this roster looks like and the moves we need to do though. Regardless if Blatche gets his act together and can start to produce like we saw for that one period of time, we need a player like Sullinger in the draft… someone with strong low post presence that will throw his body around in the paint is the perfect type of player for JaVale down low.

Booker needs to stay as a backup 4. Right now he is ok playing some 3 with Lewis here, they can interchange and create the right matchups. Defensively I love to see him guard some of the top SF’s in the league but to make him our starting 3 will kill us on the offensive end. We already struggle with a lack of shooters and guys that can create and score in the half court. I don’t see his jump shot and ball handling improving enough to be a 3.

Yeah I didn’t know Cuban wanted Lewis but that works great if we can make that happen with the contracts. Hinrich is someone I think we really need to play hard ball with. Definitely take picks but I would hate to see us give him up for a project or two that will not work out for us. He’s got great trade value because he has the type of game that could play big minutes for a contender.. I really don’t want to see us give him up for not much in return, not sure if LA or any contender can make that happen though..

by koop1122 on Feb 7, 2011 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Since you put "can" in there...

Derrick is on his way to becoming a big-time star (I don’t want to deal with the whole “when is a star a superstar” thing). A big part of that is how he’s worked on his flaws over the past several years.

John “can” – but technically anyone “can” when they’re a rookie. Obviously some are far more likely than others, but there’s always a Steve Nash or Chauncey Billups late bloomer exception to prove the rule. I’m not saying John “can’t” or “won’t” at all, but having the potential is far different than having done it. We get way to caught up around here in John “having a higher ceiling” (which I think could be debated anyway) meaning John will some day be better than Rose was at that point in his career. I want to see the improvement to year 2 before I get too excited about where all that potential is going.

by wjb1492 on Feb 7, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed

Let’s see how Wall develops in year 2 and then we can start talking about his potential. I know its great to try and compare his potential with players like him now, but he is still learning his way in the nba.

 We all knew coming into the season what Wall’s weakness were (can’t shoot, turnover prone) but give him an off season and he can work on those mistakes. I think a lot of us at BF have inflated expectations of Wall because he was the #1 pick, but remember he was the first pick in a very weak draft class. Give the kid time, stop comparing him to Rose who has a yr of solid development under his belt and let us see where he takes this team in a year 2 and 3; he could be a superstar or just a good player but we have too many inflated ideas of what he should be right now

by pwilson319 on Feb 8, 2011 1:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Last year wasn't a weak draft class

For some reason I was under the impression that it was a strong draft class. This year, on the other hand…

by zl on Feb 8, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

wall's draft class

definitely was weak..the only impact player was wall and maybe demarcus cousins, most of the talent in that class is forgettable or labeled as having upside

by pwilson319 on Feb 8, 2011 8:25 PM EST up reply actions  

The Pistons showed you could win with border-line all-stars as long as you had the right combination of them.

You don’t need to overpay for talent if you get the right players. Like the Pistons, we’re pretty set at the guards, with Wall/Young and Billups/Hamilton being fairly prototypical pairings. Sheed, Ben Wallace and Prince were all oddities in some way but they worked out well together. Sheed could jack up 3’s because Big Ben could get the miss, but they coudl both bang inside. Prince could defend stronger players because he’s so damned tall for his spot. They didn’t seem to get in each other’s way.

I think the problem with Javale is that he can’t play with everyone. He’s too tall to play the four, but he’s not a natural five. Another banger is going to clog up the middle, but a finesse player leaves us weak. I’m increasingly in the trade Javale camp because I think he presents so many problems for building a team, as talented as he is. Javale could play on a championship team, but I have no idea what that team would look like.

by Elvin_is_my_Elvis on Feb 7, 2011 4:50 PM EST reply actions  

We've got to replace areas of weakness with strength:

I see two general areas of weakness in our starting 5: (1) Low “basketball I.Q.” (Nick, Blatche, McGee) (or in Blatche’s case, if not low I.Q., then laziness) and (2) ineffectiveness defending and rebounding around the basket (Blatche, McGee).

Not that we have to replace all three players; it’s just the weaknesses that need to be replaced. So I think we could get away with trading out two out of those three, and if not replace them outright, then just move them out of the starting lineup.

Now comes the hard part: how to we get rid of two of them and get a decent power forward or center in return?? Nick is a problem because we have to re-sign him; but he is also our most marketable asset. If we can’t trade him now or do a sign&trade after the season, then retaining him means ditching the other two, imo. I say work on a Nick + Blatche/McGee, in return for a 4 or 5. And then use our draft pick on another post player. OR, try to get a great player by throwing in our unprotected first. That would be Nick + Blatche + unprotected first, for Kevin Love. Or some other real good player.

by Tbonebullets on Feb 7, 2011 5:30 PM EST reply actions  

The whole "Pistons model" thing is misleading.

Ben Wallace was a franchise caliber low post defender & rebounder in his prime. Billups was one of the elite closers who could impersonate a superstar with his shot making ability at the end of games. Rip Hamilton was a very good regular season player who raised his level of game to legit all-star quality once the post season started. Rasheed Wallace was also one of the best low post defenders in the league and potential all-star who sacrificed his game as a 4th option. Do I even need to mention Prince and his elite defensive ability on the perimeter?

Detroit compensated for a lack of true superstar players by instead having world class defenders across their front line. Not only that, they had players capable of imitating superstars by being able to consistently make clutch shots at the end of games. The Pistons were built for the playoffs. Their defensive ability, mental toughness & b-ball IQ were unparalleled.

Adding 5 good starters into the mix and expecting us to duplicate what the Pistons accomplished is not realistic. The Pistons did it a specific way, we have nothing resembling what the Pistons have. Nick doesn’t show half the mental toughness or b-ball IQ Rip Hamilton had. And we have nothing at either of the three positions on our front line that resemble defensive competency.

Frankly were just as far away from adding two legit superstars than we are to adding 4 tough minded, high IQ, defensively competent starters to pair with Wall.

I think we need to recognize that John Wall might be the only legit piece to the puzzle that we have right now. Everyone else including Young, McGee, Booker & Blatche are spare parts that might be best used to help us get another legit piece or superstar.

by Dat2U on Feb 7, 2011 5:31 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I would trade Blatche right now in exchange for Wallace and Prince! And whatever additional salary it would take to get him out of here – except for our pick, of course.

by Tbonebullets on Feb 7, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Funny mentioning the Pistons

Detroit has no real option to get out of the Rip Hamilton business and we make a very logical trading partner. We could relieve them of their problem and they could relieve our problem, but we’d get additional assets since they’re issue is bigger.

Wiz get: Rip Hamilton, Will Bynum, Austin Daye, and protected 1st
Pistons get: Andray Blatche, Josh Howard, Al Thornton

The Pistons are desperate to dump Rip and need help at PF. Maxiell is in the doghouse, Villanueva has been a terrible acquisition and they’ve been forced to play a beanpole like Daye at PF. Blatche could come in and be a perfect complement to Wilcox.

Wiz take on a some longterm salary, but pick up vets with experience in the system to tutor Nick and Wall. Daye has the potential to develop into Tayshaun and can be part of a forward rotation with Rashard, Book, and Yi.

Follow that up by drafting the paint banger at #4, either Kanter or Sullinger (Kanter being my preference) to balance out McGee. Either one would provide the paint scoring and solid team defensive presence in the middle so that JaVale can roam and swat.

I think that roster can develop at a low cost and we’d be stacked with assets having all these young players, all of our picks, plus Detroit’s protected pick. I think a starting lineup of Wall, Young, Lewis, Kanter, McGee with backups of Bynum, Rip, Daye, Booker, Yi, and Seraphin can win a playoff spot and be that young, promising team a la OKC and Chicago. I think Kanter or Sullinger have the potential come in and immediately stabilize the team as the #2 player.

by gorebd on Feb 7, 2011 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Those moves could make us FA players as early as 2012

And if we saw immediate results next year, we might be able to target a superstar in that class. We’ll definitely have plenty of cap space in the near future, even with Rashard Lewis and Rip on the books.

I could see us making a run at a big star like Chicago was able to do after only Rose’s 2nd season. May sound crazy, but a couple of strong moves could put us in position to be an attractive landing spot to target Dwight Howard. If we could attract him in FA, we’d have the pieces to offer him a max deal and pull off a sign & trade (McGee, instant cap savings from Rashard’s non-guaranteed deal, multiple 1st round picks.)

by gorebd on Feb 7, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

And as far as Dwight

I’d imagine we’d have to take back a bad contract like Turk. So maybe get Dwight and Turk for McGee, Rashard, and three 1sts (two of ours and Detroit’s pick). They’d instantly drop $14 million in payroll by cutting Shard.

by gorebd on Feb 7, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed with Dat2U

I don’t see any similarities that would lead me to believe that we can emulate the Pistons. Frankly the only piece we have that looks Piston-like is Booker.

by MR on Feb 7, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree that Wall, McGee, and Young are the keepers of this team, but...

The most important pieces to acquire now are an elite forward (I’m guessing we will be somewhere high in the Top 5) We need a Kevin Durant type of player, also we need to preach defense with this team, we have the bodies for it on some ends we just have to encourage them to suffocate opposing players.

Dear Passionate fan, I know you are passionate, but please reply with a logical answer or I will ignore you.

by TerpsAllTheWay on Feb 7, 2011 5:38 PM EST reply actions  

McGee is not a keeper. He is asthma boy. Never did a sit up in his life.

McGee might be good for FIBA, but he is nothing close to an NBA center. I’d say a 3, but he doesn’t have the skill set to be a 3. He is no 4 because he is too weak to be a 4. He is nothing. Maybe a freaky bench player. Maybe in 3 years he will be stronger, but right now he is the weakest 7’ player I can ever think of. He does some nice things, but he has no physical power. If the Wiz went to the playoffs, he will be trashed. People keep yammering about Blatche, but his greatest problem is that he can’t hit his outside shot. If that is his biggest problem, then he has a whole off season to work on it. Blatche is, without a doubt, the far, far better player. He is not that far off his game. As for McGee, send him to Master Wong for 3 months; 2 years if necessary.
I just watched the Hawks-Wizards game and Wilkins, who is nowhere near McGees’ size, walked him 10’ across and off the court. McGee has no power. In transition, immediately after that, McGee was thrown off the court on the offensive end. What good is he if he is pushed right off the court whenever anyone feels like it? This is not FIBA, it is the NBA and there is no room for this type of player. Even Yi understood this and he is Chinese. McGee had better work on this or it will not happen for him in the NBA. He simply is not a good basketball player in this league and at this time.

by hambonejackson on Feb 7, 2011 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

If you want a Championship here's how you get there.

Get players who can outplay the opposition. You know “take” their man off the dribble. Close them down on D. When you talk about the Pistons’ model that was the case. They were good individually and great as a team. but when you are performing at a championship level you need guys that can rise up and dominate their position or at least be at the level of their competition.Detriot, LA, Boston won because they match can up with anybody on speed, defense and shooting, they also can outplay individually.
So forget the team thing for now you have to look at your guys and ask yourself, can he match up with the compitition? Can He take His man?
Wall: Yes he can take His man now and whenever. Wall needs good shooters to pass to to thrive He also needs player who can set pick and roll off them.. He could start today on the Lakers, Knicks and with skilled players and flat out dominate. It’s got to be rough for Him now. But with good players around Him, He’ll shine.
Young: No not yet A jump shooter can be helpful, but should not be your first option. I think He’s worth a lot as a 2nd option and would become open if We had a 5/4 post up guy, His defense is suspect. Why? at 6’4" (I know add inches for the fro) He’s going to have to guard fast and tall shooting guards. That means (in a championship) His man is going to post Him up or shoot over him and Nick will have to do his lean back j to get His shot off. When He’s on fire it doesn’t matter. When He’s cold He can’t hit a freethrow.
Blatch:No, Think about it who can Dray take? Much less who could Dray shut down? Every bench player in the league has been padding their stats lately.
McGee? Can’t defend a fly. Yeah, He likes to swat shots, but His blocks are cancelled out by His goaltends. After 3 years in the NBA He’s go no move. He’s worse than other first and 2nd year centers, He forgets (along with Blatche) to get his arms up in rebounding position, doesn’t box out on the shot. Ect.
Yi: Yes Has a post up move, can move his feet on defense, and rebounds better than Blatch and McGee together. He’s got an outside j that complements Wall’s inside out style. His weekness is He’s fragile, and thin. can’t muscle his guy. But I think He be a great 5, if He can put on some weight.
Booker: Yes can take his guy and defend. Put him in at the 3
Lewis: Yes. Let Lewis play the 2, He’s our best D on skilled players.

by Janber on Feb 7, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

So John gets a pass on D?

I don’t think he’d get enough PT in LA to do anything.

by wjb1492 on Feb 7, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really. His defence is fine. The problem is when you are chasing speedy guys they are going to get by that's a fact of life.

The problem is no help. When a Rose, or Paul gets by they have a clear path to the rack. He’s got to play better position D for sure. But watch when Wall slips His man and penetrates the D is all over him.

by Janber on Feb 7, 2011 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

His defense is so far from fine.

Our help defense has issues, but nothing that excuses John’s D. But now it sounds like he’s getting a pass on offense, too.

by wjb1492 on Feb 7, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

yes john wall's defense right now is pretty bad

but young pgs always get beat down so its nothing weird
wall will no doubt one day be a great defender,
and defense has a lot to do with team effort anyway, it’s much easier for a guard to defend someoneknowing he has some help near the rim, for wall, that’s really not the case which means its 1v1 or even 1v2 depending on the pick situation from the top of the 3 point line… not an easy task to do

by Young Wook Lee on Feb 8, 2011 7:22 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not that concerned about his defense - it's bad, he's a rookie

I do object to comments about how spectacular John is – poor John, stuck on a team full of horrible players. He’s part of the problem. It’s understandable since he’s a rookie. But it’s still a problem for this team trying to get wins.

by wjb1492 on Feb 8, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I am saying that Young can't be a Rip Hamilton/Tayshawn Prince type player who beats everyone down on the break

Unless he releases early. If He’s shooting He’s usually falling back off balance. I love Nick, He’s important We need Him as a 6th man, but We need a Taller shooter defender who can rise up with the j. Pass (not Nick’s strong suit) and rebound like a forward. I’m leaning towards trading Kirk with Blatche and McGee for a Journeyman Center. Getting a tall guard (Brandon Knight Maybe?) in the draft. Then we are talking run next year. Hey Boston got Shaq. It can be done.

by Janber on Feb 7, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Sigh.

A journeyman center and rookie 2 – minus two key pieces on this team that’s already not winning – and we’re making a run next year?

I’m going to stop now. Basically, my opinion has differed 180 degrees from nearly everything you’ve posted. I respect your right to have an opinion, I just could not disagree more.

by wjb1492 on Feb 7, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Nick is listed at 6'7" and is a prototypical SG (physically)

He’s been matched 1-on-1 with Kobe, Wade, and Joe Johnson this season basically given them as much as they got off him. Not that he is those players, but from a physical standpoint he is elite.

by DCrez on Feb 8, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

From a mental standpoint he is still weak. I think at this level that is what separates good from great.

by MR on Feb 8, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I see him right now as a legit starting SG in the league.

If he gets better, that would be awesome, but if he stays basically the same with a few slight improvements that come with more PT…he’ll be good enough that it would be very tough to upgrade the position. Or not even a good idea, given the holes everywhere else

by DCrez on Feb 8, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I was waiting for someone to bring this up

he’s listed at 6’7" and has long arms… which actually makes him a taller SG. He’s a protoype SG and yes he doesn’t have the mentality to be as great kobe, wade and them but he’s so much better than where he was a couple years ago and if he’s going to be a very good but not great SG… i think we’ll have to take that. Sure he would be a good 6th man but thats only because you’re going to have a 2 very good SG’s then. I think its safe to say that we are looking alright at the 1 and 2 spot

by koop1122 on Feb 8, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

I was really addressing McGee and extending this to the anti Blatche crowd

My simple statement is:. If this team is ready to make a play off run next season and asthma kid isn’t ready then asthma kid must go.

by hambonejackson on Feb 8, 2011 1:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Asthma kid?

You mean Trevor Ariza? or Tyson Chandler? or Dominique Wilkins?

by MR on Feb 8, 2011 7:12 AM EST up reply actions  

why would we be ready to make a playoff run next season

we freaken suck, and the only thing we would be adding is unproven prospects so to say that the Wizards can make a play off run next season is jumping ahead, we need to find a team identity first, like a core starting 5 before we do anything, just look at how the Thunders rebuilt their team

by Young Wook Lee on Feb 8, 2011 7:24 AM EST up reply actions  

we'd be making a playoff run this season

if blatche spent half the time in the gym mcgee has.

by DCrez on Feb 8, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

we will not be ready for a play off run next year

we are looking at 2-3 years IMO. So I see JaVale as part of the development process and not the problem or reason we can’t make a run for the post season.. he just turned 23

by koop1122 on Feb 8, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

The idea that the Pistons didn't have a superstar is often exaggerated

It’s more that they didn’t have a dominant scorer. The real cornerstones of that team were Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace; without both of them there’s no way Detroit wins a title. Hamilton, Prince, and Sheed were still very important, but Ben Wallace and Chauncey were legitimate stars.

The problem with extending a Pistons analogy to the Wizards is that Wall, Young, and JaVale are weaker at each position than Billups, Hamilton, and Wallace. Yes, Wall could develop into a superstar, but Billups is a hall of fame point guard who was consistently one of the top 5 distributors in the league. We’d be lucky if Wall can get to that level. Hamilton is very similar to Nick Young, but even he had a better all around game. Finally, comparing Ben Wallace to JaVale McGee is insulting to Big Ben. As optimistic as I am about JaVale, there’s no way he’ll ever be even close to Ben.

Barring a string of miraculous draft successes a la the Thunder, it seems unlikely the Wizards can become a perennial 55+ win juggernaut like the Pistons were back in the day with Wall, Young and McGee as three core players (especially Young). Wall and McGee can be long term starters, but the Wizards need to acquire either another superstar or three very good starters to fill the holes in between C and PG. As tgmcgill said, the dice just have to roll your way (a bunch of times) in order to have a chance at winning a title. The Wizards are still banking on lady luck

by zl on Feb 7, 2011 7:30 PM EST reply actions  

Pssst...

John Wall is #5 in APG as a rookie

by gorebd on Feb 7, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions  

lot's of turnovers, not efficient

Don’t get me wrong, John Wall is going to be a star, but Chauncey Billups was an extremely successful point guard.

by zl on Feb 8, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you make some nice points

I am not sure I would try to model the team after that Pistons team, however. The only similarity we have is Young and Rip and I think even that is over-exagerated a little bit. The Wizards need to find their own style. I believe the blueprint to follow is the Thunder’s way of doing it but it does not HAVE to be just like them.

The only 2 starters we have that are keepers are Young and Wall. I am not saying that I have given up on McGee because he is so young and I feel like players like him should not be completely judged until their 4th year. Look at Nick Young for example, a lot of us were ready to give up on him before this year and BOOM he explodes onto the scene. McGee has that kind of potential. His numbers have improved a decent amount this year and if he can become a 12 and 10 guy next year and become a smarter player he could be a potential long term starter. I think there is some validity to the argument that Blatche / McGee cannot co-exist. Regardless, McGee needs to be given one more year of development before we can accurately make a decision on him. I gotta say, however, I am not overly optimistic about Javale.

Blatche sucks. Please get rid of him. He is one of the only dudes I know who gets his team around 16 and 9 and still hurts them. I don’t understand what he is thinking with his new found behind the back dribble, it gets him in trouble every time. I don’t even mind his 15 foot jumpers that much when he is open because he can knock em down sometimes. When he faces up and tries to start dribbling it is horrendous. He needs to cut that shit out.. all he has to do is pump fake, take 2 hard dribbles to the basket and draw contact. If there is no shot after his drive he has the ability to kick it out and make a nice pass but he never does this so I shouldn’t be wasting my time on it. The only reason I can think of why we keep playing him close to 40 minutes is because we are showcasing him for a trade. I can see a team making a move for him by the deadline, I would love to pick up a late first rounder for him but that could be tough. I am rambling now.

Bottom line is the only guys who are worth keeping around on this team longterm are Wall, Young, McGee, Booker, and Seraphin (only bcuz we drafted him top 20). I like Kirk and Rashard but neither of them will be around after next season. If both of them are on the roster to begin next year I am okay with it but if someone makes a decent offer for either one of them this year I would be cool with that too.

Going into this years draft we need to take the best player available at the SF, PF, or C positions if we land in the top 5. Luckily the top prospects Terrance Jones, Perry Jones, Sullinger, Kanter, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes all fall into that category. The only player I see with superstar potential in this draft is Perry Jones. The rest of them, however, can be all stars.

by jeffco01 on Feb 7, 2011 9:41 PM EST reply actions  

What you are really saying is...

…don’t trade a veteran (Lewis, Hinrich or Howard) for a warm body and a lottery pick.

I disagree. We don’t need all three of them. Rather, if we go into the draft with two lottery picks with lots of balls, we’re bound to get a Top 5 player and at least another good sub.

Add a new coach, and then next year would be a good year to build toward a three year journey to a championship.

Without a second super star, the odds of getting a champsionship with middling players are 1 in 50.

by Izman on Feb 7, 2011 10:34 PM EST reply actions  

We need to hit a homerun

with this Top 5 pick. That will be a major determining factor as to whether we become an elite team. If we get a solid player, then we may just play ourselves into a situation where we’re a perennial 5-8 seed and never draft high enough to get a star. If we can draft a true stud to pair with Wall, the rest will fall in place.

by gorebd on Feb 7, 2011 10:44 PM EST reply actions  

the only player I see with superstar potential is Perry Jones

However, Barnes could breakout, Derrick Williams could be a stud, Sullinger’s lack of height/ athleticism might not be a problem, Terrance Jones could be an all star, I really don’t know enough about Kanter but he apparently could be an all star as well. I would be happy with any of these guys but I really want Perry Jones because of that “superstar” potential

by jeffco01 on Feb 7, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

Perry Jones has a Lebron/KD type of ceiling. Just wonder if he gets there. It’d be great to get a guy like that, but I think getting a Gasol/Paul Pierce type of stud (excellent #2/all-star talent) could catapult our team to that Bulls/Thunder level. Rose has Noah and KD has Westbrook. I’m hoping that we come away with prospect worthy of being our primary scorer. My preference would be a guy that we can count on for 22+ from the block on a consistent basis, but getting a wing like Terrence Jones or a worst case scenario (ping pong wise) of Derrick Williams.

If we can get to tier of rising young contender, we become very attractive especially if bringing in a superstar can spark a nice in-division rivalry with Lebron and the Heat.

by gorebd on Feb 7, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah...part of that wasn't very clear

I’d prefer to draft a stud big, but would be very excited if we came away with Terrence Jones or Derrick Williams. I’m very excited that Derrick Williams might be our worst case scenario.

by gorebd on Feb 7, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I will be very disappointed if the Wizards draft T. Jones

Need to set a precedent and change the culture around here. I’d rather guys with 0% character issues.

by qthaballa on Feb 8, 2011 12:06 AM EST up reply actions  

From NBA's power ranking, Wizards? Defense?

“You would think that a 13-37 team would be having a hard time finding the right mix. But five of the Wizards’ six most used lineups have a positive plus-minus. That includes a unit of Kirk Hinrich, Nick Young, Al Thornton, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, which has been excellent defensively (94.0) in 77 minutes.”

Has anyone seen this lineup for extended amounts of time? It seems interesting. Enough defense, enough size, enough offense..

by qthaballa on Feb 8, 2011 12:05 AM EST reply actions  

That lineup make a lot of sense

Each player can defend their position, and they complement each other on offense.

In particular, that lineup has good outside shooting. Hinrich (1.0) + Young (1.0) + Thornton (0.5) + Blatche (0.5) + McGee (0.0) = 3.0 Shooters to spread the floor.

Even when Thornton drives or Blatche posts up, you still have 2.5 Shooters that have to be guarded out on the perimeter, creating space underneath. You can almost get away with Nick Young in the post, with Hinrich, Thornton, and Blatche (2.0 Shooters) spreading the floor.

Good perimeter shooters don’t get any extra stats like assists or rebounds, but they make their teammates better by creating space inside. A sharpshooter doesn’t just improve his team’s FG% with his own shooting. By spreading the floor, he can improve his teammates FG% as well.

Next year, if Wall can become a 0.5 shooter, we will have much more offensive flexibility. For this year, our starting lineup seems to be stuck with two non-shooters, Wall and McGee, which allows the opponent to clog the paint and prevent us from using some of our best offensive weapons.

by yop32 on Feb 8, 2011 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

I love that lineup!!!!

You got our best defensive team but you also have guys that can create and make shots, so our horrible half court offense won’t struggle as much. Obviously Wall and Shard will start but there’s no reason we couldn’t get group out there together. I also like Booker and Shard out there together b/c that gives Booker the chance to guard a good SF.. without hurting us on offense. Then we got Yi to get some minutes at the 4/5 and could use Cartier if need some shooting or foul trouble..

by koop1122 on Feb 8, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know if anyone mentioned this but...we should emulate the Lakers..bear with me

It’s hard to really relate to the current Wizards and its rosters potential to the pistons. The pistons were a very good defensive team, and it’s hard for me to see us go there. I say the Lakers, and yes we don’t have anyone like kobe, but if all goes well I think we have some similarities. As much as I think Kobe is one of the greatest of all time, it was definitely with the addition of Pau Gasol that he was able to win again. And I think we have a Pau Gasol type of player in andray blatche. If andray does improve (I’m being optimistic too) then he can emulate Gasol’s game. Pau Gasol was always known as a “soft player” and so is Blatche right now. If Blatche toughens up, and polishes his game more, I certainly see the similarities between them, especially because Blatche can pass well, not as well as Pau but it’s a reachable difference. Andrew Bynum and Javale Mcgee could have similar roles on offense and defense… given that Mcgee improves that much. Now who emulates kobe… well no one really. But I think Nick Young (again being optimistic) can emulate kobe’s scoring threat, while John Wall emulate Kobe’s creating ability. Wall can create and feed Young for open three much like kobe can to fisher. Now Young probably will never be as good as kobe even just in scoring wise, but the addition of Young and Wall’s scoring ability will definitely emulate similar results to that of Kobe and Fisher. The small forward would have to be a defensive small forward who can shoot the three, like ariza or artest…that I hope we can find in the draft or through trades or whatever. Hopefully trevor booker can develop into an artest, a smarter one hopefully. Now Lamar odom is the role probably hardest to emulate.. but you can’t perfectly copy the Laker’s form.

by Young Wook Lee on Feb 8, 2011 1:24 AM EST reply actions  

I agree with you conceptually. Both teams are tall and athletic and like to run

Player by player is not going to work. I could compare Blatche to Odom and that is a stretch, but the players don’t compare. The length and athleticism of the players do.compare. In fact, I always suspected Grunfeld of following the Lakers idea of players. He seems to be following their model. So, I agree with you. Not the player by player comparison, but the overall idea.

by hambonejackson on Feb 8, 2011 1:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Where is the Josh Howard Love?

Anybody notice how much better the defensive rotations are with Josh Howard in the lineup? He gets people in position and is the real QB of this team on defense. And he has a decent offensive game to go with it. He should be considered a major part of any Wizards playoff-caliber team scenario.

Bullets fan stuck in CO.

by Krusty2 on Feb 8, 2011 10:58 AM EST reply actions  

It's a little hard to be too excited about Josh right now, not knowing how he'll hold up or what he can do.

He’s played a whopping total of 165 minutes this season. Even though the on/off stats look nice on the defensive side, the offensive side looks horrible – and the sample size is actually too small to trust either of those stats. Beyond that, I’m in wait-and-see mode on how the knee holds up.

I’m excited for him to get back to see where he’s at, but I don’t think he can be counted on till there’s more evidence.

by wjb1492 on Feb 8, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I want him to succeed...

With Josh playing well at both ends, the team could actually win an occasional game.

by khrabb on Feb 8, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely

But then I want all the Wiz players to succeed. It’s just that my confidence level in my dreams being realized varies from player to player.

by wjb1492 on Feb 8, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually thought about him as the SF, his defensive rep was once superb

Age and injury are huge issues, and his defensive win shares, which don’t tell the whole story, were actually not as mind blowing.

The younger Josh Howard though is definitely the type of guy who can fill that Tayshaun Prince role. I cannot emphasize enough that in Prince’s 2nd year he was not doing much on the offensive end, so a JoHo equivalent would be a far more potent offensive force.

by Jon Kelman on Feb 8, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Chauncey Billups was 9th in the league in win shares per 48 minutes and overall win shares that year

I think Ben Wallace was in the top twenty, too. I think it sells them short to call the 04 Pistons a team of equals, they were actually stacked. Okur was (and still is) extremely underrated, plus their backup backcourt of Mike James and that other guy was phenomenal defensively. I think a lot of these guys were better as defenders and thus not as well known, but they were every bit as talented as, say, a healthy 2010 Blazers or something.

by pantslessyoda1 on Feb 8, 2011 11:44 AM EST reply actions  

They just are against the grain because they didn't have that ONE guy.

So people just toss it up they were just a good team. And that is pretty much the actual explanation. They weren’t a bunch of slouches, I mean they won a title. But everybody had their equal share of responsibilities. They all had different jobs to do, but everyone had their equal share to do. They didn’t have a Lebron, the early-2000’s Lakers’s Shaq, or the later Lakers’s Kobe. Each guy’s role was of mostly equal significance.

by returnofswagger on Feb 8, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Ben Wallace's value cannot be overstated though

I used win shares as the fastest way to measure defense, and he is all over the all time best defensive seasons in history by that measure. It is not a stretch to say that his defense made everyone else significantly better on D too.

I think Wall can be at least as good as Chauncey was back then, and Nick maybe better than Rip, and McGee has a somewhat similar profile to Big Ben in terms of being an athletic center who isn’t (shouldn’t be) doing much on the offensive end other than alley-oops and putbacks. The issue is McGee will likely be in the same ballpark as Wallace, so the Wizards D will not approach that of the Pistons even if we had Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace clones.

My end though is that we can’t win a title with McGee in this model. I don’t think we can say the Wiz can’t win a title with McGee playing center, but the Wizards need more D, even if Nick is a much better defender than Rip. I still think the model is worth considering, as it gives a track to build the franchise and filling those SF and PF spots.

by Jon Kelman on Feb 8, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree about Mcgee

He is one of those guys that leaves more gaping holes on defense, than another solid big man can cover up(I assume you meant Mcgee will not be in Ben’s ballpark). I don’t like the Pistons model. We don’t even have the right personalities on this team. That goes for Javale, Blatche, and even Nick and Wall.

And Javale will never be the guy that scores on just alley-oops and putbacks. That is absolutely not the kind of player that he sees himself as. And it is hard for a PG to throw the ball into the post when your C is going to take a shot 90% of the time. Even if it is a horrible shot that he is not likely to make.

by returnofswagger on Feb 8, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm still not ready to commit

to nick young as more than a guy putting up empty scoring stats on an awful team.

i’d still rather slot him as a sixth man, but we don’t have the luxury of doing that.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 8, 2011 12:02 PM EST reply actions  

I got to give it up to all posters at BF

If We could run the team….the acumen here is truely top notch. I may be off base sometimes but I like how the debate goes. We may have a sucky team but what a great bunch of supporter.

by Janber on Feb 8, 2011 12:43 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

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