Who will the Wizards select in the upcoming draft?
by Rook6980 on Feb 27, 2011 2:15 PM EST
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PrintThe top 6 slots in the upcoming draft are pretty much set. With Cleveland having the best chance of landing the number 1 pick and then the Timberwolves and so on down the line.
There may be some minor shuffling between now and the end of the season. I think Cleveland has the worst record locked down. It's possible that Washington could end up anywhere from 2nd to 6th on the list...
Here are the current standings and that clubs chances to land the #1 pick
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- Cleveland 10-47 (25% chance) (The Cavaliers also have the 8th pick, courtesy of the Clippers)
- Minnesota 13-45 (19.9% chance)
- Sacramento 14-41 (15.6% chance)
- Washington 15-41 (11.9% chance)
- Toronto 16-42 (8.8% chance)
- Utah from NJ 17-40 (6.3% chance) (The Jazz also have the 14th pick, from the Deron Williams Trade)
The top 8 or 9 players are pretty much known as well. There can always be someone that jumps into the Lottery after a great NCAA Tournament run... but for the most part, the top players have been the top players all year... and should be the top players when the draft rolls around.
Washington will get a pick anywhere from #1 to #6. Below the jump, I'll explain why it doesn't matter, because they'll be drafting Jared Sullinger no matter where they are picking from.
Here is my tiered list for the Wizards. This is based on my own personal evaluation of these players. I believe that both Irving and Perry Jones belong in the top tier. Their skills, physical attributes, upside and intangibles put them ahead of the other players. I've include 6 players in tier two... There is a tier 3, and a tier 4 etc... Players are ranked in each tier based on team need... So although the players for each tier may be the same for each team, the team needs would order the players differently within the tiers.
Washington Draft Board:
Tier 1
Perry Jones
Kyrie Irving
Tier 2
Jarred Sullinger
Enes Kanter
Derrick Williams
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Jonas Valanciunas
So with that said, let's look at the other teams drafting early in the 2011 NBA draft.
Cleveland needs the best player available, but if I were the Cavaliers organization I'd be hoping for Kyrie Irving. You always are better off selecting a great Point Guard over a great wing player - because contrary to what you might think, Point Guards are harder to find. I know that seems wrong since there's been an influx of great Point Guards over the last few years; starting with Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005 and on through Rondo, Derrick Rose, Russel Westbrook and now John Wall... but when you have the chance to get a great quarterback for your team, you take it. So how would Cleveland's draft board look? Well they have a pretty good defensive center in Varejao and an emerging young big man in PF J.J. Hickson. Obviously, if Kyrie Irving is gone they would take Perry Jones... but what if Jones is gone by the time Cleveland picks? Here's how I see them picking:
Cleveland Draft Board:
Tier 1
Kyrie Irving
Perry Jones
Tier 2
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Jarred Sullinger
Derrick Williams
Enes Kanter
Jonas Valanciunas
Minnesota drafted three point Guards in the first round in last year's draft (Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson). They got rid of Ty Lawson, but then picked up Luke Ridnour and Sebastian Telfair. Telfair has played OK, but Ridnour has been better. My guess is that they'll trade Jonny Flynn, dump Telfair and keep Ridnour when Rubio comes over next year (snicker, snicker....). That's a long winded way of saying that the Timberwolves won't draft Kyrie Irving. Darko Milicic and Nikola Pekovic are not getting it done at Center... and they can use wing help, especially at Shooting Guard. Unfortunately, there are no Shooting Guards in the top two tiers, so they will most likely just take the best available player, or Center... If Perry Jones is available, they'd have to pick him... Otherwise they could look at Jonas Valanciunas. He is a 6'11" center with incredibly long arms - and while Enes Kanter sits in Kentucky fading from General Manager's memories, Valanciunas is playing in the toughest league outside the NBA (EuroLeague) and putting up outstanding numbers. They could also go with Harrison Barnes here, hoping to turn him into a 6'8" shooting guard (he has the skills).
Minnesota Draft Board:
Tier 1
Perry Jones
Kyrie Irving
Tier 2
Jonas Valanciunas
Enes Kanter
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Jarred Sullinger
Derrick Williams
Sacramento drafted their Point Guard of the future two years ago when they took Tyreke Evans. Last year, they selected their Power Forward in Demarcus Cousins. Unless they have confidence in Omri Caspi or Donte Green, they need a Small Forward. They still seem to have confidence in Jason Thompson as their Center, even though, after 3 years he has shown little improvement. I think Sacramento will take Perry Jones if he's available.... and if not they could go with Harrison Barnes or if they prefer a Center, Valanciunas.
Sacramento Draft Board:
Tier 1
Perry Jones
Kyrie Irving
Tier 2
Harrison Barnes
Enes Kanter
Jonas Valanciunas
Derrick Williams
Terrence Jones
Jarred Sullinger
Now we come to the Wizards. They drafted their star Point Guard John Wall in last year's draft. They've got some intriguiging young players in Nick Young, who can score with the best of them; Trevor Booker who has gotten better as the year has gone on; Kevin Seraphin who seems to relish contact and has rolled out a sweet baby hook shot in the last several games ; and JaVale McGee, who despite his aggravating propensity for making defensive mistakes, still has a tremendous upside. The Wizards need a back-up Point Guard, but that need can be filled either later in the draft or by picking up a veteran (minimum contract) free agent. They also need an inside scoring threat and a Small Forward. The Wizards DESPERATELY need rebounding. If they are lucky enough to get a top 2 pick, and Perry Jones is available, they will have to take him. There's just too much upside there to pass on. Otherwise, Jared Sullinger and Enes Kanter should be sitting right there for Ernie to choose between. Here is where Kanters inelligibility really hurts - because Sullinger is putting up tremendous productivity - whereas Kanter showed up for one good game in 2010. With so much more information to go on with Sullinger, and the lack of anything for Kanter, the Wizards have to select Jared Sullinger. They simply cannot take the chance on an unproven commodity.
Washington Draft Board:
Tier 1
Perry Jones
Kyrie Irving
Tier 2
Jarred Sullinger
Enes Kanter
Derrick Williams
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Jonas Valanciunas
As you will see below, even if the Wizards drop to the 5th or 6th selection, Sullinger will most likely still be available.
Toronto needs help. Bad. Their Center (Bargnani) is alergic to rebounding and inside play in general. Their so-so Point Guard (Calderon) has a poisonous contract. They do have some young players (Jarryd Bayless, DeMarr Derozan and Ed Davis) that could form the core of a rebuild, but they will have to jettison Calderon and probably Andrea Bargnani before they have enough cap flexibility to really matter. As for need? Start with a solid wing player and the need for a defensive minded, rebounding Center. Obviously if they're lucky, and get a top 2 pick, Perry Jones is the selection. Otherwise in the 5th or 6th slot, they should take Harrison Barnes.
Toronto Draft Board:
Tier 1
Kyrie Irving
Perry Jones
Tier 2
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Derrick Williams
Jarred Sullinger
Enes Kanter
Jonas Valanciunas
Utah has New Jersey's selection by way of the Deron Williams trade. Obviously if they get the #1 or #2 pick, and he's available, they should take Kyrie Irving. That way, Irving can learn from and eventually take over the Point Guard duties from Devin Harris. Utah is pretty well set for interior scoring, both now, and in the future with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and newly acquired Derrick Favors. What they lack is wing players. They will be losing Andrei Kirilenko and Raja Bell will be 35. Perry Jones, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Jones, Derrick Williams, in that order.
Tier 1
Perry Jones
Kyrie Irving
Tier 2
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Derrick Williams
Jarred Sullinger
Enes Kanter
Jonas Valanciunas
As you can see, the teams picking after Washington really don't need Jarred Sullinger because he either duplicates something they already have (Utah), or because there are more important needs (Toronto). So, if somehow they leap frog Washington in the Lottery, the Wizards should still see Jared Sullinger available when their turn comes.
The interesting fact about this draft is that there are TWO teams with 2 picks in the Lottery. As it stands now, Cleveland has #1 and #8 - and Utah has #6 and #14.. Now obviously, the Draft Lottery will determine the actual draft order. But let's speculate here... How could the Wizards end up getting two picks, and STILL end up with Jared Sullinger as one of those picks?
How about if the Wizards, by some miracle of the ping pong balls, were to get the #1 pick for the second year in a row. Well, they don't really need Kyrie Irving....... and Perry Jones (with all his upside and physical skills) has yet to show much productivity at the College level. I think he has a very high ceiling, but he is primarily a perimeter player - and the Wizards already have several perimeter oriented big men.
Both Irving and Perry Jones play positions of need for Utah and Cleveland. Both Irving OR Perry could be enough to entice either Cleveland or Utah to consider a swap of first round picks. For instance - Wizard's #1 pick and #22 (from Atlanta) for the Utah Jazz #6 and #14 seems like a pretty fair swap to me; and at #6, Sullinger should still be there.
Ok everyone - fire away. Do you see the draft flowing differently? How about the Wizards needs? Do we want Kanter, even though he's a relatively unknown commodity? Does Harrison Barnes fit the Wizards needs better? Did I forget anything?
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kyrie irving
why would he be considered tier 1 for the wizards over a guy like derrick williams?..wouldnt the whole team need thing come into play
Best players are placed into tiers
regardless of team need….
WITHIN the tier, the players are rated by team need….
So, Tier 1 includes only two players (in my opinion)… and ONLY those two players…
For the Wizards, that tier would be Perry Jones first (need), Kyrie Irving second (not needed)…
But for Cleveland or Sacramento, it would probably be Irving first, Jones second….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
His position (sf) is a position of need,
in the sense that the Wiz have youth to develop at every position except SF. Well, if you don’t count Thornton…
by jones-y on Feb 28, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I guess our draft strategy should be to get the best guy available,
and assuming Irving goes pro (I don’t think he will given that Duke keeps their players for at least two-three years if they do go early), and we draft him, well what kind of a trade can we make for him, unless we don’t think John Wall is the answer?
Best player available applies to us
but I would rather take a 3 than a 4. With the emergence of Seraphin and Booker, and also the presence of Blatche, the 4 position looks a little log jammed right now. I think Ernie thinks Seraphin can become our power forward of the future, great foot work and has shown some good post moves. At 6’9", Seraphin is a PF, not a center. Booker also deserves a lot of credit and has surprised me at being able to score inside at only 6’7".
That being said, I’d like to see us take a star quality player at the 3 position. Whether that’s P Jones, D Williams, H Barnes, etc., I’m hoping we make the right pick with one of these guys that can run with John Wall.
We do need a lot of help with rebounding and low post scoring, but for some reason I see Sullinger and immediately think of Sean May. Someone who can dominate on the inside in college but lacks the athleticism to succeed on the NBA level. I know you’re pretty high on Kanter, but I really haven’t seen enough of him to make any kind of evaluation.
I am there with you....my issue is are there any Top 7 3s
available that force you to pass on Sullinger? Can we afford to trade down? I don’t think so as you have to give Wall hope. Kind of a rock and hard place situation. I just am not convince Barnes or Williams is worthy of passing over Sullinger.
Maybe there is a trade available for a vet and two picks later.
Until the lottery, it is difficult to project.
Sean May is another good example
A dominant 4 would be my pick before a 3 if one was available…but I don’t want to draft Sean May or Glen Davis with the 3-5 pick. That is my concern.
Most mock drafts I've seen
and most analysts compare Sullinger to Kevin Love or Paul Millsap… but Kevin Love has been mentioned the most… and to be truthful, when I watch Jared Sullinger play, he does remind me of Love… Always grinding.. moving.. positioning himself for a rebound, or better post position. He never gives up.. and his motor just runs on maximum the entire time he’s on the court…. He loves to put his body on guys… with a subtle hip check here… or a rear end there… If there’s a contested rebound, he’s almost always the one that ends up with the ball. He just wants it more… I’ll bet he’s irritating as hell to play against.
Definitely cannot say that about Sean May….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I haven't seen a lot
but the few games I have seen, he got a bit lazy…maybe I just caught him on bad nights…Kevin Love type would be good…May or Davis…not so much
Boozer is another one
I’ve started warming up to Sully a little bit more after watching Boozer against the Heat last week. Hopefully Sully measure out closer to 6’9". If he’s that tall he shouldn’t have a problem especially with his long arms.
I think that having him or Kanter would be the best thing for our team because it would solidify our ability to score in the paint and that would make us much better at actually running a half court offense. Solidifying our rebounding will help our ability to stop the opposition’s offensive possessions and help maximize our talent to run the break.
McGee is a great complement to both Kanter and Sully because he’s long and athletic. They cover his deficiencies and he makes up for theirs. As much as I would love another dynamic wing, I think we’d be better off solidifying the middle.
see, i differ with most on that point.
I wouldnt want Kevin Love. I want bigs that can defend and dominate the paint, Love is more of a jump shooter and doesnt defend well. Just based on the flashes we are starting to see….Keveen may be our PF of the future. He’s showing nice touch, he’s extremely athletic AND strong as an ox…and he’ll live in the paint, banging anybody in the league.
that’s also why i suspect EG will lean towards SF
I can somewhat see the resemblance between Sullinger’s & May’s game – both were undersized and underwhelming with their athleticism. However, I feel that May’s knees were the biggest factor in garnering that “bust” label. The dude just couldn’t stay healthy.
As for Sullinger vs Davis – there is no comparison. Davis’ post game was no where near in the same realm as Sullinger’s is at the same time in their careers. Davis NEVER dominated in college the way May did. Most mock drafts had Davis as a late 1st/early 2nd (which is exactly where he ended up) so I don’t see the comparison between the two other than body type.
by geechy_suede on Feb 28, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
That was his senior year
Remember, how good he looked the prior Final Four year, before he was exposed.
But point taken…
knees and feet
He was always an injury away from a weight problem creeping in as well. IMO Sullinger looks like a fit player with extra long arms.
I think your logic works...if the Wizards have Sullinger
on their board that high. I only have two issues.
1. I am not sold on Sullinger. Something just doesn’t ring true. He has a Glen Davis feel to me. A good NBA player, but a dominant college player, due to his size. Don’t get me wrong. He may be the only good option at the point for the Wizards, but I kind of wish better options were available (trade, FA, etc). I just think this draft board is very 2001-ish…(Brown, Chandler, Gasol, Curry, Richardson and Joe Johnson, G Wallace, Parker, Randolph, Arenas late). We won’t know for 3-4 years who the real stars of this draft will be.
2. I am not so sure Utah would see Irving as a must. They may be comfortable with Harris for 3-5 years. This could throw a snag if your overall logic.
Other than that, I see P. Jones or Sullinger as the Wizards pick short of them catching fire at the end of this year and falling down the draft board.
I think that Cleveland's 8th pick is courtesy the Clippers,
not the Kings.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Yep - you're right.... from the Baron Davis trade...
I’ll change that…
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Really jumping ahead here, I know but...
If the Wiz magically get the #1 pick again, would it be a plausible situation for us to trade down? to like a 4 or 5 pick.
Utah would be the perfect trade partner in a situation like that...
They can really use a high draft pick to sustain the momentum of their rebuild….
Utah currently hold the 6th and 14th picks…. Say the Wizards get the #1 or #2 pick…. A swap of picks with the Wizards (#2 and #22 from Atlanta) for Utah’s #6 and #14….
The Wizards could still end up with Sullinger, and with pick #14, they could get a promising Small Forward like Chris Singleton (a guy I really like) or Jan Vesely or Jeff Taylor……
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
A lot can happen between now and then
but if the priority is to get Sullinger, I wouldn’t risk going down to #6, but again it depends on the positioning of teams on draft day.
by PhenomenalSwag on Feb 27, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
If Sullinger is not available at #6,
that means Kanter will be…
But I thought I covered that pretty thoroughly……
Cleveland doesn’t need Sullinger, they have JJ Hickson
Minnesota has Love – and they need a Center or SG
Sacramento has their PF in DeMarcus Cousins – they need a wing or Center
Toronto drafted Ed Davis to be their PF of the future – they need PG or Wing.
Utah has Millsap and Al Jefferson – certainly don’t need more inside scoring….
That leaves Washington with a gaping hole to fill…. (Inside Scoring/Rebounding)…. and Sullinger sitting there on the draft board waiting for them…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Minnesota holds Love's rights until the end of the 2012 season...
Then Love becomes a restricted Free Agent… with Minnesota able to match any offer he gets…
I doubt Minnesota lets Kevin Love get away.
I mean – I know David Kahn has made some dumb moves… but really – can you think of any scenario where he allows Love to go anywhere else? He’s the face of that franchise….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I would like to finagle Al Jefferson out of Utah on a draft day trade.
I don’t watch the guy play very often, but I feel like he is a real solid post presence and tough big man, with some touch. That is the fast track to fixing our big man problem. Then we can draft a wing and backup PG or just best available, both in the 1st round.
by returnofswagger on Feb 27, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'd love Cleveland as a trade partner
I think the reason they took on Baron was to increase their chances of getting the top pick. If we end up at #1, there’s a good chance that they got bumped down to #4. I’d love to see us send #1 and #22 for #4 and #7, maybe in some sort of package since they seemed pretty high on Blatche.
At 4 and 7, we could take home a combo of Kanter/Sullly and Barnes. I really see them in a predicament similar to Boston in that Oden/Durant draft if they miss out on that top pick. They’d have to save face and could tell their fan base that the whole plan was to have enough ammo to move up to #1 if they didn’t win the lottery.
That would be sweet
But do you think Cleveland would do that? I feel like that’s a lot to give up for them.
For #1
I would think would be enough to justify it. Send them Blatche, #1, and #22. They already have some interest in Andray. I think they’d be able to claim “victory” if they can secure the top pick. They move up to the top from one pick, drop down from another one, and pick up a young double-double PF in the process. They might get 3 starters in the deal and could spin it as a better victory than just adding two starters.
Sweet is an understatement of that scenario
That would be freaking awesome!!
Wall,
Young
Williams or Barnes
Sullinger
McGee
With booker, seraphin and Crawford off the bench and Lewis as the vet
"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff
" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 27, 2011 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
Great read
Clearly, we’re most focused on (/worried about) the Wiz here, but I like how you’ve looked at how other teams’ choices can throw wrenches into our draft, whichever pick we end up with.
This is a minor sidenote, but, as for Minnesota’s situation, what’re everyone’s thoughts on Wesley Johnson filling in that wing role well? As in a Rubio (if he ever comes)-Johnson-Beasley-Love-‘11 Draft pick (or Darko) lineup. I think you’re mostly dead on, but I’m also intrigued by Johnson.
If you're implying that Johnson might become available...... I doubt it..
Unless Minnesota gets the first pick and takes Perry Jones with the intention of turning him into a Small Forward… then Johnson becomes redundant, and they might consider trading him….
By the way, I think with his ball handling abilities, shooting, perimeter defense, quickness and speed – Perry Jones could be a Super Star at SF (like Duran)…. Otherwise, if someone picks him to be a PF – he’ll be very much like Anthony Randolph… tons of athleticism and upside… too light to play effectively at PF….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
He's a freak
He could be the next Lebron/KD or he could be the next KG. But he could also end up being a great player like Odom that you expected so much more from. Or he could just bottom out and become a tweener without enough perimeter game/shooting to play wing and too soft to be a PF.
So Rook, are you 100% sold on Sullinger over Kanter?
In your Sullinger profile, you seemed to suggest that you would take Kanter based on his size. Personal note: the Wizards would have a lot of undersized young players with Jordan Crawford, Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, and Sullinger.
No...
Kanter could be much better than Sullinger….
But if I’m the Wizards – I just cannot take the chance on setting back the franchise rebuild by another year with a bad pick…. Sullinger is a sure thing.. He WILL be a good player (not spectacular… not a Super Star) – but a good player…
Kanter has, in my opinion, a higher upside simply because of his size, and the fact that he’s a better athlete than Sullinger. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to see much of Kanter in the last two years because he hasn’t played… I did see him a couple years ago when he was 16, playing professionally in Europe… and at 16 was dominating…. and not in just the Under-18 tournaments… but in regular Turkish League season play.
He’s just a LOAD inside… and even the professional men he was playing with couldn’t contain him…. The funny thing is, back then he was 6’9" – he’s grown another 2-inches since then.
When you have the huge amount of film available on Sullinger – and can see that he can definitely do some good things int he NBA (Rebound, score inside, defend one-on-one in the post)… and compare that with the extremely limited information about Kanter – you have to go with the known commodity.
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
But that's why he's not going #1
I think Kanter at #4-6 could be a major steal. If he had played this year, I think he might have gone #1. He would’ve dominated the middle for Kentucky and Terrence Jones would be talked about as a late lottery pick.
If the Wiz end up picking 5th
and say Irving, the Joneses, and Sullinger are off the board, would you project us as a lock for Kanter?
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 27, 2011 3:37 PM EST reply actions
Definitely not a lock
Derrick Williams and Harrison Barnes would have to be part of the conversation.
by PhenomenalSwag on Feb 27, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
I have no idea onKanter....
Normally, Kanter is NOT Ernie Grunfeld’s kind of pick… He’s not a pogo stick jumper.. he’s not skinny as a rail… and he is not as raw as cole slaw…
Kanter is the kind of pick Ernie stays away from… Big. Strong. Great footwork. High basketball IQ. Hard worker. But with a perceived limited ceiling. Ernie likes guys with huge upsides… The problem is, lots of those kind of players, especially the kind that have been available to the Wizards in the mid-first round also tend to either take a really, really long time to develop, or they are busts….
I see Kanter as a Jeff Ruland kind of player (except a bit more athletic than Jeff). An absolute bear inside… almost unstoppable. Great hands. Mostly a below the rim kind of player that uses his body, intelligence and guile to score, rebound and defend.
Kanter’s problem is that he can’t show anyone his skills. He’s not playing; and he’s not one of those kind of players that show up for a pre-draft work out and do really well. He won’t jump over a car… He won’t swat away 6 shots in a game… He won’t ever be in the dunk contest – and he won’t dazzle folks with his behind the back dribbling exhibition…. On the other hand, he just might be a 20/10 guy…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Ernie's track record
at least with the Wiz, might have a lot to do with the state of that Big 3 squad. He had a bunch of picks just outside the lottery. In that range, its hard to get a very good player with limited upside. There aren’t many Kanter type players in that range. He had a lot of vets and was looking to put us over the top by hitting a homerun. Those solid players wouldn’t have been good enough to crack the rotation on that team.
I also think that this year’s picks with Seraphin and Booker strayed from his track record. I think he knows this team needs toughness and stability. He’s mentioned it. Its no secret that McGee isn’t very strong and Blatche is soft as cotton. I think his draft board might just be two players deep, Kanter and Sullinger. If we get the #1 pick, I could see him trading back.
A little silly, but interesting
This is an interesting look, though it is, of course, too early for it to mean anything. It wouldn’t shock me if, say, Derrick Williams or Kanter ends up higher on the Wiz’s draft board. You make a good point though: I can’t imagine Sullinger playing beside Hickson, Love, Bargnani, Cousins, Jefferson, or Monroe and those guys should all be fixtures for their teams. So he should be available, assuming he goes pro.
Also, the Big Baby and Sean May comparisons don’t really work. Sullinger is tearing up the NCAA, Davis was a 2nd round pick and had already earned the Big Baby nickname. As for May, who knows how he would have played if he hadn’t destroyed his knee?
However, had Glen Davis come out for the NBA draft the year LSU went to the final four
he was projected as a top 10 pick.
by PhenomenalSwag on Feb 27, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
He was a projected to be higher earlier...but I will give
a top five that he could turn into…Shelden Williams…now, there is an 80% chance he is twice as good as him, but I have this scary feeling that he is dominating college players in a way he won’t be able to in the NBA. If we draft him, I will certainly hope he turns into Boozer more than Williams. And I had a similar fear with Boozer…who dropped to the second round as well…
It is all conjecture…
Did you see Sullinger vs Illinois?
I thought he looked terrible from an nba standpoint. Slow footed, no lateral movement, under 6’8", and kind of fat looking. Sure he used his big body to do some work, and he is a great college player because he can do that. But he’ll never be able to guard 4s in the nba unless he loses all sorts of weight, at which point he’ll no longer be a load. And he must have had his shot blocked 4x against Illinois! What will happen in the NBA?
Honestly IMHO, Seraphin is the better PF prospect…
I did not see the Illinois game....
But I understand that Lighty lit it up in the second half… I’ve seen Sullinger have so-so games… and yes, he gets his shot blocked quite a bit (one of my many concerns – along with his height)… However, one of the things I like about him is that frequently when he does get his shot blocked, it doesn’t affect his play – he goes right back at the guy the next play….
I think that if the Wizards draft him, we as fans will just have to understand that he’ll get his shot blocked occasionally….
Right now, other than Demarcus Cousins he may be the best low post scorer to come out since Andrew Bogut.
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I don't understand why people think Seraphin is a PF....
He played Center against Dallas… Against Chandler and Haywood… (not Nowitzki)
In the Miami game, he came in and guarded Dampier (not Bosh)
The Wizards drafted him as a Center -and they are using him as a Center….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
He certainly is replacing McGee...
but I suspect they wouldn’t mind if he became a backup 4…it is tough to plan to have a 6 9 backup center
Seraphin plays the 5 because he and blatche ar the only ones who can handle big men
But Seraphin can not handle a Chandler and Howard all night. Yi simply can’t muscle these guys. Many times they put Blatche on these guys because he is taller. If not Blatche, then Seraphin. I guess Seraphin is as much a 5 as Booker is a 4.
by hambonejackson on Feb 27, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
I think athletic limitations are a bigger deal than his height limitations
and that’s why he’s a 5. His only limitation at C is his height. At the 4, he doesn’t have the quickness, jumping ability, and many times height to match up. Bottom line is he’s much more a liability at the 4 than 5.
I also think that’s a very big reason why I prefer Kanter over Sullinger. A Sullinger/Seraphin combo on the floor at the same time could cause major problems. But Kanter/Seraphin is a much better matchup on offense and defense. Obviously though, that would have to be a duo against a team with stout bigs. Kanter would perfect a great group with McGee, Seraphin, and throw in a stretch 4 with a little Booker thrown in too.
Would you draft Zaza Pachulia with the 5th pick?
He’s 6’11" 285 and played pro basketball in Turkey at the age of 14. That’s Kanter’s resume in a nutshell.
The more I look at the available players....
the more I hope we can get a Derrick Williams type SF or Perry Jones…
Hell no dude!!
Kanter aint nothing like Zaza!
Kanter is a monster and plays strictly down low, strong as an ox and mad at the world like it abused his sister!!
If anybody i would compare him to bogut and even a little Perkins WITH an offensive game.
Zaza blabla. pfffff. you clearly have seen nothing of this kid did you?!
"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff
" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 28, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
that was one...and I have seen one or two others
Maybe I just caught him on bad days…who knows..I just wish there was more certainty…
That's the problem with this draft...
there are NO certainties….
Unlike last year with Wall , and even Evan Turner and DeMarcus Cousins… you knew those guys would be stars eventually…
The previous year was the whole discussion about whether Ricky Rubio or Blake Griffin should be #1- but just about everyone acknowledges that EVENTUALLY , both would be great… Blake has already proven his part…
Nothing in this years draft like that.. no certainties…
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I think that's to the Wizards advantage
we might get the best player in this draft picking at 4. Without a definite superstar, teams will likely lean stronger towards drafting for need. I see a situation very similar to the Kwame draft (hopefully we get #1 and handle it better this time).
Perry Jones would be good...
If the Wizards drafted him with the intention of making him their Small Forward of the future…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
He can be the 3 and in a few seasons play some 4 as well. Not an everyday 4
but he will get stronger and the team can stick him in there if they have to.
by hambonejackson on Feb 27, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Your logic makes sense
Great post. I am still not sure if I would rather have a wing player or a low post guy like Kanter or Sullinger. That being said, however, if we were to land the #1 pick I wouldn’t even consider swapping picks with Utah or anyone else for that matter. I would select Perry Jones and call it a day. His upside is ridiculous and he fills a need. I love the idea of getting another pick in the lottery though, and I think it is realistic we could get one without swapping our high lottery pick. I have seen on this site a couple times that there will be teams willing to sell their picks in order to save some $, if we could buy a pick somewhere in that 18-24 range we should go ahead and do it. With a newly acquired pick plus the pick we got from ATL we could try to package those 2 and maybe Bibby with his expiring contract to move up in that 10-14 range if we are targeting someone. Bibby might be a decent asset because he can still ball and has an expiring contract, he could be useful for a team that is in need of a PG (maybe utah?). Having a top 5 pick plus another top 12 would be huge.
I really want to have two top 7 picks
I’d prefer to trade back if we get #1 to maybe Cleveland if we could secure Kanter and Barnes. But my first attempt if we pick #1 is to see if we can keep that pick to draft Perry Jones and use other assets to move up and get Kanter/Sullinger as well. A Perry Jones/Enes Kanter duo would be unbelievable.
Great write-up, thanx....unclear on one thing tho
Are you saying the Wizards should pick the same whether they get the 1st of the 6th pick (assuming Sully is available)?
No...
In the unlikely event that they get the #1 or #2 pick…. and if there were no trade available to get TWO lottery picks back… (ie: trade down from #1 and #22 to #6 and #14) – and they are sitting with the #1 or #2 pick – they would obviously need to draft Perry Jones….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I think Perry Jones has a higher upside than Sullinger....
As for RIGHT NOW – Sullinger is the better player….
But as you know, General Managers don’t draft on just talent or productivity – they rely more on whether they think the player has a huge upside or not….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
what else do you draft for?
We had the chance to take the more proven college player and passed. We took the one with more upside and it was the right decision, John Wall instead of Evan Turner.
First
if the wiz win the lottery, there is no way they will trade that pick.They will pick and they will pick Perry Jones unless he bombs in the tournament. I don’t think they need to see Kanter.to decide whether to draft him. They can ask Carlesimo. He coached Wall and he coaches TJones, another player I am sure they will looking at. Sullinger is a very good player, but a bit Seraphanish. I suspect if Kanters knee is healthy, that they may opt for him because he is more of a 4/5 guy. He can play the 5. They won’t have Yi and they don’t have Armstrong and Seraphin isn’t tall enough to be a real 5.
I see PJones, then Kanter and then TJones and then maybe Sullinger.
I think TJones because he is a good wing player and I think they may be more in the market to replace Lewis.
But
If the Wizards had the optiojn
Draft Perry Jones with the #1 …. and another guy in the mid-20’s (with the Atlanta pick) where the talent level really drops …… OR
Trade #1 and #22 for #6 and #14 – Then pick Sullinger or Kanter AND Harrison Barnes or Chris Singleton – and fill TWO HOLES …
You don’t think they would seriously consider moving down?
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I guess it really depends on how certain you are that Perry Jones
will blow up and be a huge star…..
If you are certain – you HAVE to pick Jones…
On the other hand, he certainly hasn’t shown that kind of (Kevin Durant-like) dominant productivity in College yet… He seems to float from game to game, fitting in here and there; showing “flashes” of brilliance – but mostly just being ordinary…..
Everything with Perry Jones is upside… There’s no substance there yet. Nothing you can point to and say – “Look – THAT’s why he’s gonna be a Super Star”…
He’s the perfect Ernie Grunfeld pick… Super athletic. Tons of upside. Some very valuable NBA like skills (ball handling, court vision, speed)…. but some questions too (doesn’t play hard all the time….. loses focus…. disappears occasionally)…. Despite being the tallest player on the floor most nights, and can out-jump EVERYONE – he’s just a so-so rebounder (8.4 per 40 minutes pace adjusted); and especially poor as a defensive rebounder. Lacking toughness… More of a “finesse” player.
Do those traits sound familiar?
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
He doesn't shown the Kevin Durant-like dominance because his head wasn't where KD's was when he got to college.
KD came in demanding the ball and wanted to take the big shot whenever it was needed. Perry Jones on the other hand, tends to shy away from the ball and shows up in “flashes” because of the fact he barely has the ball in his hands. His teammate LaceDarius Dunn is a shot-jacker and hogs the ball away from Perry’s spotlight. The talent is definitely there, it is just his mentality that may be holding him back a little.
TNT should've treated Lebron's return to Cleveland game like 2k11 and cut the game off after the Cavs were down by 30. lol
Can we drop the Chris Singleton thing now?
He’s out for the year with an injury. No need to bring any more injury history to this franchise. We’ve dealt with it enough.
by PhenomenalSwag on Feb 27, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Because of his broken foot.... I think Singleton will not enter the draft this year...
He’ll probably go back to Florida State for his Senior season…
He was considered a first round pick in last year’s draft (2010), but decided to go back to school… now he hurt his foot so he’ll most likely pass on the 2011 draft…
The reason I like him so much is because he is precisely the kind of player the Wizards need at the Small Forward position. He’s big (6’9"), long, athletic and quick. He’s a very good catch-and-shoot player and good posting up. Tremendous finisher on the break; and probably the single best perimeter defender in the draft for the last two years. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands a lot. He’s a great rebounder (9.0 per 40 pace adjusted -which is terrific for a wing). And did I mention that he’s a flat out “lock down” defender?
With Wall, Young and Singleton manning the 1, 2 and 3 – the Wizards, for the first time in a LONG time, would have good defenders at all three perimeter positions..
Everyone complains about defense – or the lack of it from the Wizards… Everyone says that defense wins Championships. But then when you talk about drafting players, then it’s “we should get this guy because he can light it up”…. or “this guy can really shoot the basketball”… or “this guy averaged 25 points per game”….
If you build a defensive mind-set, the offense will come… John Wall and Nick Young are enough Offense for the perimeter and wing players… a defensive minded SF would fit in perfectly; especially one that doesn’t need the basketball in his hands all the time to score…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
when is the last time a team said no to the 1st pick of the draft?
by hambonejackson on Feb 27, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
With our pick and ATL's pick I believe we should do this...
First we should get Sullinger, assuming that we get a pick 3-5. Then I say we get a SF with ATL’s pick, whether it be someone that John Wall knows like C.J. Leslie or a shooter like Kyle Singler.
I really think we would benefit from getting Jared Sullinger faster than if we got Perry Jones if we had the first pick. It would take Perry Jones some time to make an impact in the league whereas Jared Sullinger can come out and dominate the glass.
TNT should've treated Lebron's return to Cleveland game like 2k11 and cut the game off after the Cavs were down by 30. lol
This is why the Wizards need to look long and hard at...
Booker and Seraphin over the remainder of this season…. If Seraphin in particular looks like an eventual long-term starter at the 4 then maybe Ernie should go for Kanter as a more classic 5… or roll the dice on one of the athletic SFs.
The fact is that while the Wizards could definitely use more toughness up front, they need a truly first rate SF just as badly, if not more so.
Mind you, I think Sullinger might well be the next coming of Elton Brand, which is pretty good… but for some reason I am very leery of high draft picks coming out of Ohio State… the recent history speaks for itself.
I would go with Kanter if not PJones
Carlesimo does not get 2nd rate players. Kanter is already as big as Blatche and he will get bigger. He seems to have a good work ethic and he has the euro training in the skills department and I think the wiz need the 4/5 guy as much as they need a 3.
by hambonejackson on Feb 27, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Fill positions
Baseline to build upon: Wall, Young and McGee
That means the Wiz need: 1) a good perimeter shooter at the 3 and 2) a bruiser like Boozer at the 4.
Harrison Barnes is a great athlete and will be a great perimeter shooter. He’s got the right attitude and is blue chip. He knows how to play the game.
At the 4, the Wiz need height (6’10" or higher) and weight/muscle (260+). No jerks, as Leonsis would say.
There is only one person that fits the Wiz need at the 3 – Barnes. I’d pick him first.
There are several people that could meet the requirements for the PF, but not with Atlanta’s pick. The Wiz will need to be aggressive in getting a high quality 4 and thereby rounding out the starting five for the next decade.
Unproven Commodity
I’m not sure I agree with the below:
“With so much more information to go on with Sullinger, and the lack of anything for Kanter, the Wizards have to select Jared Sullinger. They simply cannot take the chance on an unproven commodity.”
The Magic had a similar decision to make between Emeka Okafor and Dwight Howard. Okafor had the resume, the body of work to judge, the national championship — all of it. Still though, the Magic knew Howard was going to be special. I’m certain we can all agree they made the correct decision in drafting Howard.
Point being: Trust in your ability to evaluate talent and make your decision based upon that. Throw “safe” out the window.
good point, but
1. Kanter is not Dwight Howard…. Nowhere near the upside that Howard had when he was drafted; nor the freakish athleticism…..
2. The Wizards already have their Super Star…. they already hit their home run…. It’s ok to hit a few singles and doubles now…
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Decisions
I was using the Howard/Okafor example to demonstrate what a tough decision it was. Sure, it seems like a no-brainer now, but at the time it caused a lot of indigestion for a Magic team in search of an identity.
I teeter back & forth on Sullinger. I watch games with him and am never not impressed – but things change when you get to the NBA.
In any event, I am definitely with you. We hit a HR and have a star PG, but I sure wouldn’t mind pairing him with another star. If we draft right, there is no reason why that can’t happen.
I don't consider him a single
Harden is a very good player. he doesn’t get noticed because the ball goes through Durant and Westbrook all the time. he plays good defense and scores when called on.
what i meant was that I don’t want to pick someone just because we’re sitting there.
But Harden IS a single...
Durant is a Home Run
Derrick Rose is a Home Run
John Wall is a Home Run
Blake Griffin was a Home Run
IMO There are NO Home Runs in this draft…… (other than MAYBE Perry Jones)….
only singles….
We just don’t want to strike out…. (Thabeet, Joe Alexander, Yi Jianlian)
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
sorry, disagree
Harden is a “5 tool” players that can be a 2nd leading scorer in the NBA. That’s not a single. He’s not a HR but he’s already a double and may yet be a triple.
Only 2
Only 2 positions I wouldn’t draft and that’s PG and SG. PG because we have Wall and SG because we have Nick and Crawford. Andray Blatche being on the roster is a reason TO draft a 4, not a reason not to. McGee doesn’t keep me from picking a Center either. He gets eaten up when on the ball, goal-tends or just throws the ball out of bounds in most of his block attempts. On a playoff team he is a reserve big.
This Sullinger talk really surprises me
Why wouldnt the wiz kids take a shot at a superstar at the 3 (i like Terrance Jones, but i know everyone is hung up on perry and Harrison) and get a banger with the Hawks pick?
Wouldn’t Jordan Williams make a lot of sense? Local guy who loves contact and is consistantly improving. Booker is a starter to me, and a guy like Jordan Williams would look real nice playing along side hime. I think Javale (and Blatche) should come off the bench, think Chris Anderson. We need a real blue collar post presence and while Sullinger would be nice he doesnt strike me as a must have, the opportunity is there late in the first for someone with a less polished, but similar skill set. Take a shot at a superstar with the lotto pick.
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