The Washington Wizards And The Perils Of Bargain Shopping
by Sean Fagan on Feb 25, 2011 9:00 AM EST
in Team Analysis
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PrintBargain shopping or "taking a flyer" to use Mike's parlance is one of the most misunderstood phenomenas in professional sports. Often, it is one of the most expedient ways for a GM to appear like they are making a move yet reduce any blow back from possible ramifications of the action. By investing low in a product that is considered "undervalued," the GM appears to be the smartest man in the room. If the investment returns and above average value then the GM has hit a homerun and can dine out on his success for years to come. If the move is a failure, the GM can normally cut ties with the low value investment quickly with little harm being done to his reputation. Bargain hunting has existed since time immemorial and the most well regarded GMs are normally the ones who have turned coal into diamonds on more than one occasion.
However, I want to advance a different theory in this article in that bargain hunting can be seen not only as a pernicious act but an addictive one that can hurt the development of a franchise. The constant hunt for bargains can in and of itself become a consuming act that can result in the false valuation of players. Worse still, bargain hunting can fog the judgement of management and the fanbase to the GM in question. As Mike once questioned Etan Thomas' false hustle, the "move to make a move" actions of a GM often obscure his true ability.
Sometimes, a fan base and the wider public are savvy to this type of shell game and the GM in question becomes either a laughing stock or exposed as someone who is in over his head. In the recent past we have the example of Isiah Thomas, who has become such an example of GM incompetency that he has become the punchline for every bad trade made in the Association. Currently, we have David Kahn of the Minnesota Timberwolves to kick around and laugh at for drafting and acquiring players in a scatter shot manner. Both GMs are rightly regarded as the worst in their field and are now used as the measuring stick for bad GMing.
All this is a long and convoluted way to bring us back to questioning the bargain shopping tactics of Ernie Grunfeld and the Washington Wizards. Now I used David Kahn and Isiah Thomas in the previous paragraph to illustrate that a truly terrible GM is plain to the naked eye. Grunfeld, no matter how you judge his stewardship over the Washington Wizards is by no means a terrible GM. His successful career in New York, Milwaukee and brief revitalization of the Wizards demonstrates that he is a competent if unimaginative hand at the tiller. However, one troubling theme that has become increasingly pronounced over time is his predilection for bargain shopping. While I would not go as far as to describe it as a "mania," it is a troubling aspect to his player acquisition strategy that may do more harm than good to the long term future of the Washington Wizards. To do so we must look at the characteristics of the bargain shopper and how those characteristics have and will adversely effect the franchise.
There is only so much room for "bargains"
Bargain shopping often leads to the purchase of things that you think you may need in the future regardless of the issue of present need. This is how you find yourself exiting Costco with a 20 pound bag of dog food without owning a dog. You may have plans to own a dog in the future, but the current value of that food is zero as applied to your current situation. In the NBA, roster flexibility is one of the key necessities to retain at all times. Therefore if one wants to limit the risk one takes on bargains, a savvy GM needs to learn what is an acceptable risk and how many bargains a team can afford. (You may also substitute "upside" for bargain.) Unlike MLB or the NFL where bargains can be stashed or jettisoned easily, the NBA with its limited roster and lack of a proper developmental league punishes the overaggressive bargain shopper. Therefore bargains in the NBA should arguably be limited to those players who slot between the 8-12 role on the team or demonstrate such a overwhelming ceiling that the risk is determined acceptable.
In point of fact, if one takes a look at the Wizards current roster it displays an alarming quantity or perceived bargains on the roster. Taking a quick look at the roster, the following players would qualify as fitting the bargain tag:
Now some of these players represent a proper use of the term bargain, so for the moment we can disregard Cartier Martin from the discussion. Other players such as JaVale McGee and Nick Young represent acceptable risk considering their contract status and are further excluded from being considered false bargains. The truly damaging players to the roster are players like Yi Jianlian and Al Thornton and to a lesser extent Josh Howard and Andray Blatche who limit the flexibility of the roster and its ability to make short term moves.
Take in case Yi Jianlian who should serve as exhibit 1A for the pursuit of the bad bargain. At the time many thought the acquisition of Yi Jianlian was an acceptable risk considering the Wizards had the cap room to "take a flyer" on a player who was former high draft pick and had bounced around throughout the league. As the team only lost the services of Quinton Ross and had the cap room to spare it appeared to be little cost for a larger potential reward. Fast forward to a few months later and we find the Cleveland Cavaliers acquiring Semih Erden and Luke Harangody for the measly pittance of a second round draft pick. Why couldn't the Wizards make this move? Because they had already their cap room on Yi. To return to the buying stuff you don't need metaphor, the Wizards fell for the trick of grabbing stuff at the Best Buy checkout line. So instead of having the capacity of buying a marked down Blu-Ray player (Erden) the Wizards splurged on marked down Hannah Montana DVDs.
But you can't place the blame solely on the shoulders of the Yi acquisition which in and of itself did not completely kill the Wizards cap room. However, the Wizards front office compounded the issue by signing Josh Howard on a one year deal for 3 million. Now we enter the issue of the Wizards acquiring players because they are perceived as "bargains" rather than accounting for fit or structure. In acquiring Yi one assumes that the Wizards are in full rebuild mode and are willing to accept a bad year in order to take a look at his talents. However the acquisition of Howard was a statement by the franchise that there was the lingering hope that the team could compete for a spot in the playoffs. In total, seven million dollars was spent without a clear indication of how either player benefited the team.
Now both moves have done nothing to effect the long term financial flexibility of the franchise as they are both expiring contracts. However, both effected this season's flexibility and have hamstrung the Wizards in making the type of move we just witnessed from Cleveland. To dive deeper into the past, moves for players like Fabricio Oberto, despite their small value have also limited the Wizards flexibility in making moves in-season.
There is always a better bargain than the one you had before
Another issue that bargain shoppers face is that there will always be a better deal for an item you have previously purchased. In this case, let us use a toaster as an example and assume that you own a toaster that makes perfectly acceptable toast even if it has a bit of it's luster. However, that toaster only cost you 20 bucks. Now let's say that a brand name toaster comes along that has a timer that lights up and plays your favorite song when you wake up. Even better, the toaster is marked down by 30% off of 100 bucks.
With the Wizards, the new shiny toaster is Yi Jianlian and the old dinged up toaster is James Singleton. The problem is the Wizards are not at a point in their rebuild where a toaster that plays music is a necessity and they really could use the extra money saved to pay rent. If they had simply just keep their old dented up toaster for another year they could have used the extra money to buy some better plates or a flatware set. Making matters worse is that the Wizards already owned another toaster which also plays music and has an alarm clock. They then went and extended the warranty on the toaster because it tends to overheat and will sometimes char your bread. That toaster's name is Andray Blatche.
In total, the Wizards now have two toasters that do exactly the same thing for about three times the cost of what it would have taken to just keep the old toaster as a backup for the flashy new toaster with the extended warranty. Complicating matters further is that the both flashy toasters work on European outlets and cannot be plugged into the wall while you are using your blender. The blender being JaVale McGee. So now the Wizards have put themselves in the position where they have a lot of stuff in their kitchen, some it redundant and most of it incompatible with the other appliances. One of the flashy toasters is shoved in the back of the closet and we still don't have a Blu-Ray player to run our Hannah Montana DVDs. But at least we have another microwave (Jordan Crawford) that we purchased marked down in case our current microwave (Nick Young) breaks.
The perception of a bargain falsely inflates value
Having labored over an extended metaphor and lost you all I would like to get to the heart of the matter and the most dangerous aspect of bargain shopping. Bargain shopping tends to enhance the value of items you have already purchased because they were a bargain at the time. Yesterday, I saw one poster refer to the fact that Andray Blatche could still be considered a deal because he was a second round draft pick. And yes, while Andray Blatche was a deal at the time, he could no longer by any means be considered a bargain. As soon as Blatche earned his first extension, he ceased to be a bargain and instead became an investment. Yet the perception remains that Blatche retains his value simply because he was drafted in the 2nd round six years ago. The same can be said Yi Jianlian and to a lesser degree Nick Young. Their draft status is used to prop up their perceived value regardless of their output. Yi Jianlian's status as a former 6th pick should have no bearing on his perceived value especially as both he and Blatche underperform when compared against their peers. Further, Young only retains his value as a bargain while he is on his rookie contract. Past that point he loses his status as an accruing asset and becomes a person that you need to pay larger dividends.
You could further this argument by considering the case of JaVale McGee. McGee is considered a steal by many as his ceiling and upside appear to have no limit. Yet we are already in Year Three of his contract and the time in which McGee can be considered a bargain is growing short. As soon as McGee comes to the point where the Wizards need to resign him, it becomes a question as to whether the team is willing to invest above market value for a project or hope that McGee magically learns the fundamentals of basketball overnight.
I don't want anyone to draw the conclusion that I think the Wizards front office should stop actively seeking out perceived bargains but I do want to point out that these moves have greater ramifications that may have originally been intended. Filling your roster full of former washouts with high pedigree and prestige veterans will often get you plaudits from casual fans or media members that don't pay close attention, but they damage your ability to do the smaller things that can transform your moribund franchise into a successful one. Instead of giving the Yi Jianlians and Adam Morrisons of the world another shot at basketball redemption, the Wizards should be looking to acquire lower profile players from teams looking to dump bodies in order to make one last move. Today we could be thinking about how to use Semih Erden to spell JaVale McGee. Instead, we acquired our fourth SF and have the chance to yell Yiiiiiiiiiii once a game.
I think I'll make some toast.
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Great way to look at things.
So is every 1st round draft pick that is still in their rookie contract a bargain? Nick and Javale are only bargains because they are limited on how much they can make. If they were on the open market their pay would at least double for a starting position player (especially Center).
I would look at Bargains a little different for 1st round draft picks
I would think Nick is a bargain because he is outperforming 9 out of the 15 players selected in front of him (Oden, Brewer, Hawes, A. Law, Yi, T. Young, B. Wright, J. Wright and Thornton).
Consequently, Thornton would not be a bargain because of all the players that were selected after him that are out performing him like Wilson Chandler, Rudy Fernandez and Aaron Brooks.
Agree, but comparison with Erden is misplaced
Semeh Erden is not going to change the quality of the team much. Wishing you had a different back up center is an issue for a team set at every position and ready to contend, not the Wiz
I agree with this
but would point out when that established backup center could be had for a price of a 1nd round pick and you have a 4 million PF rusting on the bench….
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Not to mention the value from a cultural perspective
coming from the Celtics…especially their commitment to defense.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Javale is a Blender; Andray is a Toaster!
Funny stuff! However, I really don’t agree with most of your points.
Oberto didn’t work out but at the time, it was a savvy move. The ’zards were loaded and expected to contend in the East. He was a cheap, complimentary defensive specialist.
Yi was a smart move since acquiring him basically amounted to a one year tryout for a young, potentially good player. He has proven that he has a lot of skill but really can’t carry a team. I bet he’d win 6th man of the year on San Antonio though.
The Blatche deal looks bad now but there is still a decent chance he pans out. Sadly it may not be with the Wizards but you never know. He’s just having a bad year and I really do think a lot of it started with his foot injury and snowballed from there.
I liked the Josh Howard signing because it showed that the ‘zards take care of their players. Howard made it a point to say he wanted to be here. Not too many competent, recent All Stars would have done the same. I hope this leads to a long-term signing. I’d love a healthy Josh Howard on this team!
Lastly, I think Ernie has accomplished a lot of what you say a good GM does— the team has a lot of small or expiring contracts, which provides flexibility. His biggest mistakes have been not in bargain hunting but in grossly overpaying established players. Miraculously, he was able to escape those contracts— his greatest feat as a GM…
Bullets fan stuck in CO.
6th man of the year in San Antonio?
You know Manu Ginobili started coming off the bench, right?
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
Ok, 6th man of the year is an exaggeration...
How about he’d be Songalia with upside?
Bullets fan stuck in CO.
Hehe, ok
I know your pain…live in AZ myself…
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
If we had made the deal for Erden and Harangody
you would be writing this same thing about them next year at this time.
What you are doing is called “hindsight”.
You are complaining that we missed out on a 23 year old rookie with a PER of 8.6 who was a late late second round pick and a 24 year old rookie with a PER of 10.7 who was a late late second round pick. Neither is getting much PT. Instead we got Yi, who was 22 with a PER of 12.2 when we got him.
Now I know PER is not a great indicator, nor is draft position. But given the choice last year (especially after the Worlds) of Yi vs the 52nd and 60th picks I think most everybody would take Yi.
Meanwhile Howard has been an energetic vet presence. You need a few vets around and they don’t come much cheaper than him.
Essentially Boston traded the 52nd and 60th picks last year for the 31st pick next year.
Do you think they look like talents that can’t be had in the second round of any NBA draft?
by MR on Feb 25, 2011 10:36 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
I disagree with you MR
which is abnormal. I wasn’t a fan of the Yi move at the time because it ate up cap space and was rather lukewarm about the Howard signing. Its not hindsight to say that a team in the position of the Wizards should attempt to retain a bit of cap room to allow ourselves to make the type of move that the Cavaliers just made. Further, the issue is not about Harangody or Erden per se but our simple inability to position ourselves properly to make a move.
My other point which you also probably disagree with is that there have have been more of these “take a flyer” deals in the past few years with limited success. Now its rebuilding, yes I understand that, but at the same time I think that the Wizards have a perhaps a higher opinion of themselves than warranted as rebuilders of talent.
And yes I would take the picks over Yi because their contracts wouldn’t have been on the rookie scale or at Yi’s value.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
I was also lukewarm about both signings (IIRC).
I am also lukewarm about the BOS – CLE deal. I know very little about the two players involved, so maybe I need some educating. From what I can tell they haven’t done much.
I agree we should have a little wiggle room in our position. But I don’t think we need to tear our hair out over missing out on this “bargain” because we look for too many “bargains”.
Fair enough
I guess I was a little chafed at the ol’ hindsight comment.
I certainly don’t expect Grunfeld to be clairvoyant. What I expect is for him to know that he himself isn’t clairvoyant and not lock down his roster with risky signings.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Couldn't we
have sent Al Thornton to Boston with the cash to buy him out? I just don’t think anyone knew this deal was available a la the NJ-UTA deal…
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Boston gave away something for nothing
Maybe they were only willing to deal with Cleveland because the Cavs are hopeless and will not be a threat for a long, long time to come.
Also, Erden and Harangody have contracts that run through next year. Not sure we would want to commit the roster spots to them anyway.
are we that much closer at this point?
and both harangody and erden’s contracts do not appreciate like other rookie scale contracts.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Luck or not
I’m sure Ainge hasn’t forgotten we freaking beat them without the benefit of an appreciable front court. Looking at a high-mid lottery pick, if we’re able to acquire a starter with that draft, AND he just handed us the only frontcourt bench depth we’ll ever need? We’re close enough that Ted feels confident enough to say it’s time to build in rebuild.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
How is that nothing?
Pick 31 is a good pick. In fact it’s quite valuable since it’s the highest non-guaranteed pick in the draft.
Erden is worth more than the 31st pick
He was taken with the 60th pick back in 2008. He was a huge question mark back then. Now he’s a proven commodity as a competent backup center.
Statistically he fares poorly in comparison to Yi. And he is almost 25.
I’ve not watched him (or at least noticed him). Have you? Can you tell me more about him?
Y'know
we really should have a Rook signal…maybe we can shine his profile pic up in the sky…
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Erden plays D
He’s willing to bang in the post. The Celtics are 6-1 in games he’s started this year. I think his numbers look bad because he isn’t asked to do much offensively, and he started the season slowly, which isn’t unusual for a player’s first year in the league.
they gave him away.
honestly, who knows better than them what his potential is?
They gave him away for Troy Murphy (reportedly).
If we dumped H for Murphy people around here would throw a fit.
They "dumped" him for the roster spot....
They still need a floor spacing big man (Murphy?) and a back-up Point Guard (TJ Ford?)…. I’m sure Ainge is hoping both those players are bought out so he can sign them….. THAT’S why he dumped Erden and Harangody
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Erden
I like him…. as a 12-13th guy off the bench…. NOT as a back-up Center.
He’s a banger with heart…. but with very little skill (completely opposite of our starting big guys who have lots of skill, but very little hear…..uh…. banging ).. If he could shoot, he’d be a taller Songaila… If he had post moves, he’d be a skinnier Bogut…. But he has neither, so he’s Semih Erden……..
I was hoping the Wiz could offer Josh Howard for Daniels, Erden and their 1st round pick…. Seems like that deal might have had some traction with Boston, I think… They could have freed up a roster spot…. Perhaps asking for the pick was too much…?
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Hard to disagree much on the surface.
A quick note to start off…in a corporate atmosphere, your executive objectives are defined by the worldview of the next guy up on the ladder. In Ernie’s case, that’s Ted, and was Abe.
Abe’s commandment to the people (Ernie) was contend. So he made what moves he could make to enhance a contender’s chances on salary heavy books.
Ted publicly stated he expects a hard cap. Whether it’s releasing player until a team is under the cap or being that low already, it’ll be that much easier if the contracts merely come off the books. Not saying I agree necessarily, just that with Ted calling the shots, it seemed to fit both objectives.
Also, the $70 shiny toaster metaphor doesn’t hold up so well when it comes with a $50 rebate…
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 10:59 AM EST reply actions
*players
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
If the league changes to a hard cap,
it will go up, not down. Most people aren’t thinking about this. For there to be a strict hard cap, the overall salary cap per team will increase, not decrease.
by PhenomenalSwag on Feb 25, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Good thought...
I hope that’s the case if we go hard cap.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Otherwise Orlando, Los Angeles and lots of “Marquee” teams will be screwed…… and Stern won’t allow that…
There will be a hard cap that will decline each year….
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Must protect the haves, eh?
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I would imagine it'll be somewhere around the luxury tax line
It would make the most sense, at least.
Also, the $70 shiny toaster metaphor doesn’t hold up so well when it comes with a $50 rebate…
Yeah – the Wizards traded Ross ($1.1 Million) for Yi ($4 Million)
But didn’t New Jersey also give Washington $3 Million?
That’s like trading in your old clunker and getting $1,100 for it and buying a newer clunker for $4,000 that comes with a $3,000 rebate…..
He's "delightfully cranky"
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Not exactly because the $3 million they got back
doesn’t affect the salary cap. In effect its a wash in terms of bottom line dollars, but not in terms of salary cap.
Trust me, if anybody knows that, Rook does.
But honestly, was Grunfeld supposed to not go for a young 7-footer on an expiring in a cash neutral move on the hope that we could grab some young players for free in a roster dump by a contender?
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Please someone PLEASE
tell me something about these two guys that makes you think they are worth much.
On paper it’s pick 31 for pick 52 and 60. Personally I’d keep 31.
I know NOTHING about how the two players are performing other than what I see from game logs, which don’t show them doing much. Has anyone WATCHED them play and can you tell me more about them?
Thanking you in advance.
Honestly the crux of the argument is meant to be about Harangody and Erden
as it is the fact that some of the moves that are perceived as “free” or as bargains turn out to be anything but. And these types of moves more often than not result in keeping a GM from being as active as he may wish.
But for the sake of argument, Erden has played very well in brief spells with the Celtics an is a competent if unremarkable big man. He dominated his matchup with JaVale McGee (SSS) and provides the kind of bulk and positional awareness that we are sorely lacking and he has played with winners this season. All for the cost of 500,000.I think Rook could give you a more accurate scouting report but Erden is certainly farther along than Seraphin and in some aspects McGee.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
I assume you meant to put “not” in there.
Ok that is fine, but you have to look at reality too. The reality is that this deal is far from free for Cleveland either.
Not knowing Harangody and Erden aside from what I saw in game logs I’d still probably take Yi. Is Erden really a much better prospect than H?
Anyway I think it’s just too easy to look down on moves we’ve made that haven’t panned out very well and then look at moves others are making and assume the potential becomes fully realized in those players. I mean everyone is crying about missing out on this deal and at the same time everyone is down on the Crawford deal. I think he has much much much more potential than either of these two guys.
I'm not down on the Crawford deal...
I AM concerned about the lack of a transparent process of player development…which is the subject of my rant tomorrow…
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
but would you take Yi at 4 million
and hope that in one year he proves to be worth WAY more than those two picks?
and why would you want Yi in the first place when you have the exact same player in Blatche? Didn’t the Wizards already have a jumpshooting PF who has problems with defense? Do we need to replicate that problem at the same cost?
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Are you referring to Boston's picks?
The Semih Erden and Luke Harangody picks no one knew were available?
I can get on board with the ‘Yi was a redundant move that ate up salary cap flexibility’ argument, but I’m a harder sell on the ‘Grunfeld is addicted to bargain shopping miscues’. Like I’ve said earlier, Grunfeld follows his marching orders well, if without a ‘Shine’ level of genius, and Ted has said it’s time to build.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
The mandate is "throw a lot of stuff up there with young talent and see what sticks".
You can argue with that philosophy, but EG has executed it about as well as you could expect.
The GOOD thing about that philosophy in the NBA is that mistakes of that nature are cheap and when you get a success it’s also relatively cheap (relative to trying to lure successful players away from their own teams).
A point Sean was making.
Agree with both of you. And as Ted has said it’s time to put the build in rebuild, and I think it makes this a non-issue…for now.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
GM should know Yi and Adam Morrison arent going to pan out.
Seriously, there was no chance Yi was going to be more than he has been. Morrison is flat out horrible, watch him run the floor ONCE and it’s clear he cant play in the nba anymore. I think those 2 moves were about getting potentially marketable players more than anything else.
They didn't keep Morrison. He was a body in pre-season practice. They gave him a look and let him go.
How is that a bad move?
It's an invite that someone else could have gotten
maybe a DLeaguer or Euro guy who actually had a shot of making the team.
They did
His name was Cartier Martin and he did make the team. His name was Lester Hudson and he did make the team. His name was Sean Marks and he got cut. His name was Kevin Palmer and he got cut.
Only so many invites available
Pretty useless to bring a guy like Morrison in, especially when he refused to play Summer League (as I recall). This gets exactly to the “taking a flyer” argument. Yeah, so what, cant hurt to have Adam around….but it cant help either. So what’s the point?
i'm not worked up at all.
but no other team gave him an invite nor showed an iota of interest after we cut him. It was a useless exercise, which in 99% of the cases doesnt matter….but in 1% maybe you miss a gem.
really i do think both Yi and Morrison were about marketing and not basketball…but i guess that’s fine, it’s a business
Not many players get drafted that high.
Sure, it was a low probability gambit. But so was the chances Boston would give Cleveland Harangody and Erden for a pat on the behind.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
You are undervaluing Yi
He has shown this year that he is a legit NBA player. He has the skills of a starting caliber NBA center. Problem is he has the body of an NBA power forward. Give him an off-season to get his physique in line, and he could be a very valuable player.
I hope he doesn’t bulk up and go to Miami to become their starting C. If he can add enough strength to defend the 5 spot, that’s a nasty team to try to match up with. Wade and LeBron slashing with Yi, Bosh, and a dime-a-dozen 3-and-D undersized SG at the PG spot spreading the floor?
I think that's overvaluing him.
but I think he’s a decent backup or 3rd center for the right team. I’m not sure we are the right team given our personnel.
He's already that
He plays pretty sound D as a center- the problem is that he’s physically over matched. The question is whether or not he can build the strength to hold his own. He’s already 7ft, 250, with a strong lower body. He has hit his target weight every season, and he is reported to have a fantastic work ethic. I’d bet on the kid succeeding.
how much do you wanna bet?
He looks very frail to me, like he is thin boned guy who simply will never have the bulk you’re talking about
I think he could be a decent center if he and his team decide to go all-in in that direction.
I don’t see him being any good at PF any time soon, so if they try to maintain his mobility to be able to defend 4’s out on the perimeter, I think he’ll fail.
Sig bet? And what are the terms?
The Yi love is a remarkable thing to see
And about as understandable as as a David Lynch movie.
How can you not understand this? You're a Wizards fan!
Root for the under appreciated so when they turn it around and triumph, you can honestly say you were with them all along.
Feels good to have rooted for Nick even before his breakout. Hopefully the same thing happens with Yi, and in a year or three, the entire team.
C's had to release bodies to make room for Troy Murphy.
I think that’s supposedly what this deal was about.
Bullets fan stuck in CO.
Great article, thanks.
I think Ernie gets way too much credit for simply shuffling deck chairs around. For instance, both acquiring Kirk and trading him are looked at as these genius moves when in reality (imo), they are the kind of deals that are ALWAYS available and bring in talent that could have been had in a variety of different ways. Not that they are bad moves, but it would have been just as easy to buy a 1st round pick to acquire Serpahin, pay Foye $4.8mill, then move him at the deadline for assets. Point being, there is more than one way to skin a cat and I’m not sure how much praise GMs should get for doing typical things that are always available. Or at least, moves like that don’t cancel out signing the wrong guys to big deals and extensions. Or missing on impact players when they’re available.
When EG parlays assets into getting a stud player, then kudos are due
Now that I re-read that…sorry if it’s a bit offtopic
Fair point
But essentially turning Kirk Hinrich into 3 first round picks is still a pretty damn good job. And I don’t even like Ernie.
Thank you.
I’m tired of Grunfeld getting little to no credit.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Credit for what?
Shuffling around middling assets that are always available somewhere? Again, I dont have any issue with yesterday’s move…but it’s barely a blip on the radar given the numbers of players and picks that moved around the league yesterday IMHO.
Would you have preferred Melo? Deron? Baron Davis?
Not me.
The goal is draft picks and flexibility. We did that.
1)yes, I would have preferred 'Melo
2)yes we did that…just as almost any GM in the league would have done with ease. That’s what I’m saying, these arent bad moves, but they are run-of-the-mill stuff that happen all around the league….so I’m not sure why people heap so much praise on Grunfeld for doing what every GM does
What would you have given up for Melo that you think Denver would have accepted?
Because I live in NYC and a lot of people here feel sick to their stomachs.
Our 1st rounder unprotected this year, without a 2nd thought.
Not sure they’d want any of our players not named Wall, and they cant have him.
That does not get the deal done by a long shot.
Honestly I don’t think we have enough on the roster to have gotten that deal done.
But it certainly would have had to include multiple first rounders, Nick Young, Booker, Kirk and anyone else with any value at all.
You know the Knicks gave up 4 starters, a first, and 2 seconds?
by MR on Feb 25, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Starters on a barely .500 team in the East
Gallinari was like 1-9 last night with 2pts, seriously, he’s not that good. Chandler is probably ok…but hardly irreplaceable. Billups is fine as a fill in for Felton this season.
I think this season will be tough for them….but giving up a bunch of middling players and some picks doesnt hamstring them, those types of players are shuffled around the league all the time and are readily available. And they can always buy picks.
The issue for them (imo) is if Amare and ’Melo can compliment rather than detract from each other.
are they worried about losing the picks or the players?
Gallinari really isnt very good, he’s got worse numbers than Blatche. Felton seems to be a good player…but I bet they can reaquire him next season or the year after if he wants to come back, hes on a 2yr contract.
Late 1st round picks? Meh. No amount of those is worth more than a top shelf player IMO.
The Knicks are now Miami with lesser superstars.
They are completely hamstrung for future growth.
by MR on Feb 25, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yes.
And I love it.
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
That future was only going to be turned into stars anyway
Chandler was an impending free agent that was going to get overpaid, Mozgov sucks, the pick is in 2014, Curry was a nothing and Billups>Felton for the same number of years. Really, it’s just Gallinari that they should be worried about, and he plays Melo’s position anyway.
Guys guys guys (and gals) don't be so glum. We WON yesterday.
I think we did the best among the non-playoff teams.
The Clippers deal (which I hate for now)
could turn out ok…but no denying it’s a huge gamble…not even top 3 protection…
When you can balance a tack hammer on your head, you will head off your foes with a balanced attack.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Feb 25, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
They really have to move Blatche and McGee. They are both outplayed on a nightly basis. Sometimes by a 2nd banana.
These trades haven’t brought JW the impact player that He needs to have a run of championships. Jordan needed Pippen. Shaq needed Kobe. Bird needed McCale. Repeat championship teams need at least two players who can outplay their man up and down the NBA.
It really must be frustrating for Wall. Every game I’ll see Wall penetrate make a short pass to an unguarded McGee/Blatche who instead of being ready for the pass is totally suprised to find the ball hitting them in the hands. Without a dominating inside player who can defend on switches, play a pick and roll and basically slam short range passes Wall lays in their hands.
I’m sick of the turnovers and the weak shots in a fallaway, which remove you from rebounding your own miss. Why not just slam the Hell out of it everytime if you are 7 foot tall? Why the antics? I mean look at Kareem the Slam, the Awsome skyhook, really good pass backs to Magic who drilled it or drove.
Oh well, GO Wizards!!!!!!!!! Go John Wall.
ps as I predicted JW is averaging in the low 20s. My magic ball says He will go off on Miami.
the NBA party is over
Grunfeld is just flailing around rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic; swapping garbage for garbage. None of this really matters anyway because all the elite players in the NBA want to play on the same four teams. This is destroying the league. The party is over.
I disagree almost totally with this post.
his predilection for bargain shopping.
Well what to do when your team operates on a budget? That’s the thing that gets my goat. We evaluate EG against GMs with limitless budgets who lead entrenched teams that actually stand a chance to get FAs (LA, Boston, SA, etc.), when the fair evaluation is against GMs who can reliably get their teams into the playoff hunt with major constraints on non-FA-attractive teams… He’s clearly among the best of that group.
In point of fact, if one takes a look at the Wizards current roster it displays an alarming quantity or perceived bargains on the roster.
Its a rebuild. Stock the roster with players that may get better and see who floats.
The truly damaging players to the roster are players like Yi Jianlian and Al Thornton and to a lesser extent Josh Howard and Andray Blatche who limit the flexibility of the roster and its ability to make short term moves.
1. You have to field a team.
2. Blatche and Thornton fit the “stock the roster with players that may get better and see who floats” argument.
3. Howard is valuable for reasons other than his playing ability.
Fast forward to a few months later and we find the Cleveland Cavaliers acquiring Semih Erden and Luke Harangody for the measly pittance of a second round draft pick. Why couldn’t the Wizards make this move? Because they had already their cap room on Yi.
You’re making two assumptions:
1. that the smart strategy is to hold out and not acquire a low cost/low risk player because that there will always be a better deal or strategy for this team at some point in the near future. That’s problematic for several reasons.
2. that this deal would have been available to this team if we hadn’t made some other deal that we made prior to now deal.
One thing that interests me is when another team makes a good deal. The usual response is ‘we’ should have made that deal. Are we supposed to get all the bargains? Are we supposed to get all the good deals? Are we supposed to know Teams A, B and C would be looking to ship Players X, Y and Z out at the trade deadline? Do we pass on all the singles and doubles while waiting for the home run???
Instead of giving the Yi Jianlians and Adam Morrisons of the world another shot at basketball redemption, the Wizards should be looking to acquire lower profile players from teams looking to dump bodies in order to make one last move.
How do you perpetually stay in a position to make great deals? Your post presents the weaknesses as you see them, but presents no viable alternative strategy. Does the team go into the season without thornton, who, at the time was the only healthy SF on the roster? Or Yi, who at the time was the second string PF? Or Howard, who, at the time was one of the only two vets not named Gilbert on the entire roster with winning experience?
Yes there’s always a better bargain in the future, but what do you do when you need to make toast today?
by jones-y on Feb 25, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I see they are holding a deck chair sale on the Titanic....
Fun speculative column, MIke…
What can one possibly add? Let’s see.
I was one of those who advocated re-signing Singleton. Aside from helping MIke move more of those “Big Game James” T-Shirts, that would have given us a back-up big man who puts out a 100% effort every game, every practice. For $1.2 million what’s to hate? Might even set an example for a couple of gents we talk about inordinately here.
Alas, then come the Nyets with the Yi toaster sale. So why take the deal and let the wrong guy (Singleton) go to China? The only justification I can see (aside from ticket sales in DC’s Chinatown) is that Yi played like sort of a monster for his national team in the Worlds. So we buy in, and he immediately (except for the odd flash of inside play) reverts to the soft game that made him unwelcome in, uh think about this, Milwaukee and Newark! Maybe this was a close call. Maybe Ernie thotugh about it long and hard. But, the choice he made was wrong and, in retrospect, far more expensive then wnyone might have imagined.
The Howard re-signing I actually, really, truly liked. Josh. like James, really manned up when he came over from Dallas last year, except, oh yes, he blew out his knee. Ernie rolled the dice and this one still might have worked out… especially if AInge had not (brilliantly) I think decided to go for a higher degree of difficulty in the OKC deal and pass on the lower risk option of, say, Harangody, Erden and a #1 for Josh.
The Kirk deal was, I think, an actual coup. A real ball player and a mid level draft pick (Seraphin, who may some day be, wait a minute, oh yes, as hard nosed as SIngleton) for bupkes. That brings us to the Atlanta deal… where we add Mo Evans to our collection of semi-tough small forwards, Jordan Crawford to our “knucklehead or diamond in the rough, pays yer money takes yer chance” collection, a mid to late first round pick in a bad draft, and Mr Disgruntled aka the player formerly known as Mike Bibby. Lord I hope Crawford and the mystery meat at #21 give us something beside the diet of angst we are being fed. I hope EG has the cojones to buy out Bibby but I keep hearing the “M as in mentor” line, which forgive me has been worn out already this year being used on Gilbert and Kirk. Wall does not need an effing mentor, he needs teammates he can count on!
And we cannot forget Al Thronton, who is by all accounts a decent guy and puts out 100% effort but… but…. but…
When I recount this tale of woe in my mind, I almost cannot find fault with our coaches, but that is a whole other story.
Makes you long for the days of Popeye Jones…. like Singleton a Murray Stater!
From what i can see about Grunfeld
He does things at light speed. He came to the Wiz and immediately built a playoff team. Then play off team collapses and he immediately starting dumping contracts. He did wait to look for the best bargain. He isn’t really bargain hunting as much as he is rapidly shrinking contracts. A 15 mil 4 last season is a 6 mil power this season. A 17 mil 1 is now a 5 mil 1. With the exception of Lewis, a 10 mil 3 is now a 3 mil 3. A 5 is now worth 2.3 mil and so on. This happened in less than a year. So for him, its getting it done and he is getting it done. he is getting contracts in line as to what players can expect. Cheap contracts. For instance, if Crawford is 1,2 mil at the 2, what can Young expect this off season? If the Wiz draft a 4/5 guy, what can McGee expect? I see this as what he is really doing.
I think this whole Cleveland thing is silly because there are 31 other teams that may heve been able to what Cleveland did. The Wiz are just one of them. If Cleveland were so clever in the front office, they wouldn’t have the worst record in the league. The only thing Cleveland ever did right was win the lottery when James was coming out. I also think there was a save Cleveland mentality among the GMs. I think the NBA was worried about the Cavaliers survival and there may have been some implicit agreement to throw some players Clevelands way. Other teams could have done what Cleveland did, but I think Stern and company wanted Cleveland to benefit. My hypothesis.
If the team had kept Singleton, then the team would still have Ross. That means the team would not have Seraphin. So it all balances out. I like Yi as a player and if they could keep him for about 2.5 mil, I think they should. I don’t that he is a horrible basketball player mentality that seems so fashionable.
I agree with the stuff about overpaying for what used to be a bargain
I also mostly agree with the part about there only being so much room for bargains. Teams need a bit of a pecking order – although you have to be flexible enough to shift PT where a rotation guy isn’t earning it at all and a deep bench guy is, having many players who all think they deserve PT can cause problems, both in team chemistry and in evaluation.
But a lot of it is hindsight evaluation of the bargain shopping. Every team does it, and needs to. We get upset when a bargain tryout doesn’t work, or when the “better” bargain comes along and we can’t do it – but I wouldn’t say that’s a problem with the bargain shopping. That’s an issue with team building and talent judgment. If you never bargain shop because there might be an even better deal around the corner, you miss out on all possibilities.
I guess I see them as distinct issue, because the team building/talent analysis aspect of it can be just as much of a problem when signing the non-bargains. (See, Detroit Pistons)
on a different but (somewhat) related topic
does anyone know what the deal is regarding tonights game against the heat, are mike bibby, crawford or evans playing at all?
I WANNA SEE LEBRON GET DUNKED ON AGAIN!!!!!! (sorry for caps lock, i couldn’t resist)
Good article and I agree with some of the points
I however think this Erdan thing is gonna turn into Gee 2.0. A big flap over a fringe NBA player.
I personally don't have a huge issue with not getting Erden either
But I think the larger point is important — there is a cost to taking flyers on people.
Maybe Yi is not a flyer
but was considered a 3/4 player like Morrison and that is what they were looking for this season.
They did not have Lewis yet. so they wanted 3 /4 guy and then traded for Lewis and moved Yi over to the 5 because they have their 3 player. To use Erden as an example does not make sense because they already had 3 centers lined up in McGee and Armstrong and Blatche. I don’t think they were planning on Lewis 20 game into the season.
by hambonejackson on Feb 25, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Great article . . .
I didn’t find the argument entirely persuasive, but it was still thought-provoking.
The strongest case for this argument is probably Yi’s presence on the roster. Maybe having Quinton Ross instead would be a minor upgrade. This seems pretty marginal though.
Josh Howard, as others have pointed out, offers value in different ways to the team.
The Wizards had an extra roster spot available, which allowed them to make the Atlanta trade and acquire a prospect as part of the package. Missing out on Harangody and Erden seems to undercut the thesis of this diary. Perhaps the thesis needs to be tailored more narrowly, but if Harangody and Erden develop into useful assets it will be largely a case of finding “undervalued” assets and filling a roster with more rookies.
If the argument is “first year player in rookie contract = good risk, player in last year of rookie contract who hasn’t panned out yet to full potential = bad risk;” I don’t quite buy it.
It also dawned on me that a number of these arguments could have been leveled at Danny Ainge in 2005-2007. He effectively blew up his roster and stocked it with a lot of young prospects. Ten players on the 2006-07 team had two years or less experience. Scalabrine would seem to fit the mold of a veteran bench-warmer who had been extended beyond the rookie contract. Olowokandi was a former high-profile bust. Ainge still had one veteran in his prime, a valuable prospect like Al Jefferson, an overpaid veteran in Szczerbiak, but beyond that it was mostly prospects out of which Jefferson and Gomes appeared to be perhaps the best. (It turned out that there was obviously some other value there too in Perkins, Powe, Rondo, and Tony Allen).
I’m not saying that the Wizards are going to be able to successfully deal their existing pieces for two future HOFers, but there’s nothing in the construction of the current roster that would preclude them from making deals down the road to another team that gets stuck on the side of the transition where they are now.
I still applaud your putting the argument out there. As far as it relates to the Wizards, time will tell.
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