Explaining why I'm lukewarm on the Kirk Hinrich trade
by Mike Prada on Feb 24, 2011 12:36 AM EST
in Trades
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PrintFirst thing's first: there are a lot of things to like about the move to trade Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong to the Atlanta Hawks for Mike Bibby, Mo Evans, Jordan Crawford and a 2011 first-round pick. Namely:
- The Wizards have followed their philosophy of always acquiring a prospect and a pick in trades.
- The Wizards pulled a sneaky Oklahoma City-like move in terms of asset management, parlaying a veteran like Kirk Hinrich into two first-round picks and Jordan Crawford. For comparison's sake, the Thunder got two first-round picks for taking on Kurt Thomas, then a third for trading him. Then again, they used two of those picks on Serge Ibaka and to trade for Thabo Sefolosha, which is a better use of the assets they got.
- The Wizards understood that Hinrich, while productive, was not an essential long-term piece, and were proactive about doing something about it.
- Mo Evans, if he sticks around, is a pretty solid veteran just like Hinrich that stands in the corner and shoots threes.
- Jordan Crawford dunked on LeBron James, which is awesome.
Part of my issue is that I've come to realize that Kirk Hinrich was very underappreciated here by many, including myself. Hinrich wasn't the transformative leader that the team hyped him as, but he was productive, competitive and professional. He started off poorly as the starting shooting guard, but once he was shifted into being a sixth man and a third guard that played fewer minutes, he thrived. He had a bit of a rough shooting stretch in January, but bounced back in a big way in February and always played solid defense. Overall, this was the best shooting year of his career.
He was also a good pro on a team that has few. No, he wasn't a leader, and yes, he was somewhat expensive, but I do think John Wall, for one, legitimately appreciated him. Michael Lee has said as much, and I could see it a bit too in the time I made it down to Verizon. So with all this in mind, the stuff Wall said after the Wizards' loss to the 76ers looms large.
"It's just so frustrating to see certain guys that don't give the effort out there, that don't care. That's the toughest thing for me. No matter if I'm having a good game or a bad game, I may show frustration, but I'm going to compete. My whole life is competing, and that's what we got to do."
Say what you want about Hinrich, but he competed. Wins and losses don't really matter, but building a good culture does, and Hinrich probably helped there. Now, that's one less player that truly cares, at least in the eyes of the star. I'm not sure about the message that itself sends at this point. Mike Bibby, too, is a veteran, but his effort level tanked right before he was traded from the Kings when they started to get bad, and I'm sure he's pretty pissed about going from starting on a playoff team to this mess. The similarities between Bibby and Hinrich, on the surface, seem to only come from their years of experience.
(In case you are asking, yes, I am renouncing prior opposition to the Hinrich trade. Ernie Grunfeld's perspective won out there).
That said, I get that moving Hinrich for more young players is a tough thing to pass up. Does this trade qualify enough to me? I have my doubts.
Part of my issue here is that I don't think Jordan Crawford is all that good. Crawford strikes me as one of those NCAA Tournament stars that gets overrated because people see him then. He hasn't played very much this year, but when he has, it hasn't been pretty (7.5 PER, 42.1% TS%, an astronomical 27.9% usage rate). Granted, it's 160 minutes, he's been hurt and he's still just 22, but the only real flashes that we've seen is him going crazy in a preseason game against the Wizards. I'm also confused about his long-term projected role. Is he a Nick Young replacement? Is he a point guard? Is he instant offense off the bench at a cheaper price than Young? I just don't see a built-in role for him in the future. Instead, I see Ernie Grunfeld and company doing another one of those "take a flyer" trades that, increasingly, seem to be falling short. (I'd expand more, but Sean has a big post planned on that subject for next week).
The saving grace of the trade to many is the draft pick, and I admit it's nice to get. It's probably a low pick (Atlanta would pick 22nd now), but those are the picks that can be good to have if used to take good role players. Then again, we're also forgetting that trades aren't the only way to acquire those picks. The reality of the NBA today, especially with the possibility of significant salary rollbacks under a new CBA, is that low first-round picks aren't very valuable to contending teams. Last year, the Grizzlies gave away the 25th pick for $3 million in cash, and the Hawks dumped the 24th pick to trade down for even less cash. This year, the Lakers already dumped their first-round pick to get Sasha Vujacic off their payroll, and the Raptors dumped theirs from the Heat for James Johnson, who stinks. Teams don't want that guaranteed contract on their books unless it has to be. I'm confident that, if the Wizards really wanted to, they could have spent $3 million themselves and bought a pick. They haven't done it yet, but to really commit to building through the draft, they should. They're already saving money on not having a big payroll.
(As far as specifics: I doubt Chicago (26 and 28 today) wants both their late picks, Orlando's (23) payroll is massive and Atlanta may have sold the pick anyway after their inevitable early playoff exit).
It's also worth noting that the Wizards won't save much money with this deal. Hinrich is scheduled to make $8 million next season, while Bibby and Crawford combined will make $7.5 million (Evans is an expiring contract). That's a difference that won't even cover a minimum salary. Add on the additional draft pick, and the Wizards actually take on slightly more salary next season. So as much as the Wizards want to tout being "financially flexible," as their press release put it, this doesn't really help much at all on that front specifically.
So in the end, given the option between trading Hinrich to get an additional first-round pick and a marginal prospect or keeping Hinrich, forgetting the marginal prospect and simply buying another pick, I'd choose option B. That's why I'm pretty lukewarm about this one.
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I don’t really see where you’re coming from here. It’s not like this trade prevents the Wizards from going out and buying another pick too.
i think hes talking more about a psychological aproach to what has taken place
there isnt a lot of net worth through this trade, and the teams culture certainly took a dive, what kind of precedent does it leave wall with…nba is a business kid, winning helps the business but its not always a priority. Do you think the wizards without hinrich win more games? Isnt it you guys who have questioned the culture of your team…isnt this exactly what you guys were criticizing?
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
Come on Mike
You say yourself throughout the piece why the Wiz would do such a trade and the biggest is that Hinrich is not a leader and is somewhat expensive. He also is not a long term piece going forward. So why waste time? If they are determined to build with young players and through the draft then they did a good thing yesterday. They get another first, can still buy others if they desire and they get Crawford, who nobody knows about yet. He hasn’t played enough to know whether he can play or not.
Nick young didn’t set the world on fire his first few years in the league and now he is a pretty good player. They do need scoring off the bench. If Crawford can do that great. Why is it that you wonder if he would replace Young? Why can’t you see him as a possible other piece to the puzzle as opposed to a piece that replaces a piece the Wiz already have?
I hope they get rid of Bibby too sooner than later. Again, a prospect and a pick in a trade is a good thing. Booker was taken late in the first and he doesn’t look half bad for the Wiz does he?
Kirk's presented the same issue for some fans here as in Chicago
Not flashy, not a big scorer, and what he does well doesn’t always stand out. It’s been worse here on-court-wise because the team around him has been less organized, and Kirk’s better defensively in a good team scheme.
I still suspect he did more team-wise behind the scenes than he is going to get credit for, but I admit to being biased as you know. Some (many?) people wanted to see a vocal, demand the kids behave kind of on-court leader.
Mike is right
Little value was added.
Crawford might provide a few quality minutes and occasionally have a solid game, but nobody wants to see Mike Bibby suck it up.
So on a team trying to change its losing ways, and desperately needing some consistent effort and focus, we just got worse
Also, Ouur star pg prospect didnt seem happy to see Kirk leave.
Its not just losing Kirk as a stabilizing force on the court and in the locker room
John isnt used to being in the NBA. Kirk wasnt just a mentor. He was probably one of
only a few people Wall could trust and lean on that understood what he is going through. Its obvious Kirk is a good guy. I’m sure John also saw the professionalism and effort. One less role model.
Anyways, that pick or one close to it could have been available next year
Or on draft day.
I mean I guess Bibs can show J Whoosh!™ a couple moves.
Does Bibbyball work at high speeds?
the only good things about this trade are the pick and Evans
Evans is an upgrade at SF and at least provides a little scoring/shooting for us and the pick is pretty much self-explanatory.
Bibby is a good backup but no way in hell is he going to embrace the role the way Kirk did. My gut feeling is that he won’t try as hard and he might be a negative influence to the knuckleheads we already have on this team.
I also don’t understand where these Jordan Crawford man crushes are coming from? Aside from a decent NCAA tourney run and a great preseason game what makes people think he’s gonna be some great commodity? He’s not a great shooter and can’t really play D (which means he’ll fit right in). And if i remember correctly weren’t teams worried that Crawford’s head wasn’t always in the right place coming out of Xavier?
With Kirk gone the team lost a lot of professionalism and while he may have struggled on the floor at times I feel Kirk did a lot of good setting a tone in the locker room. So I agree with Mike, in theory this deal makes sense but I would have been just fine if it hadn’t been made and we kept Kirk. You can put a price on professionalism especially since this team lacks a lot of it
What's this hell I view?
Wizards are like the winter
Ice cold from outside
-wjb1492
Evans is an upgrade over who?
Lewis? Not even close.
Howard? No. Not even with howard’s current reduced level of effectiveness.
Thornton? Evans is a better set shooter (and thus a better fit). That’s about it.
by jones-y on Feb 24, 2011 10:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Evans would only be an upgrade over Stephen Graham
That’s right, Evans is 56th out of 57 among SFs with his 7.47 PER.
by Emmet O'Neal on Feb 24, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
i guess i just like Mo Evans
but you guys are right the numbers don’t lie, he is a downgrade from any SF currently on the team..i had no idea that his PER was that low or that Thorton’s PER compared to Evans, makes Al look like lebron
What's this hell I view?
Wizards are like the winter
Ice cold from outside
-wjb1492
Lukewarm whaa? I love this trade
Starting Line-Up:
PG John Wall
SG Crawford
SF Young
PF Booker
C McGee
or
PG Wall/Bibby/Howard
SG Nick Young (back to the bench)
SF Lewis/Martin/Thorton
PF Jianlian/Blatche/Singleton
C Singleton/Seraphin
This line up worked amazingly in NK11, I was shocked.
Holy cow does potential get overvalued!
Crawford in the starting lineup, huh? That’s going to be a better 3 guard lineup?
HE DUNKED ON LEBRON JAMES
it was so nasty that they had to confiscate the tapes!!!!
HE WAS ON SPORTS CENTER!!!!
IT WORKS IN A VIDEO GAME!!!!
welcome to the mind of the casual fan
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
by piccolomair on Feb 24, 2011 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
well when you dunk on the King and have a good tourney run you can start on a NBA team
if these kid cracks the 7 man rotation I will punch Flip right in the ovary
What's this hell I view?
Wizards are like the winter
Ice cold from outside
-wjb1492
That team loses 60 games
minimum
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
by Sean Fagan on Feb 24, 2011 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
great post
ultimately though i think the wizards did a good job collecting assets. While yes, in terms of real time worth atm it doesnt seem like anything special, those assets can come in handy say in draft time. buying out a mike bibby for example is less expensive than buying out kirks 8mil contract. Jordan crawford might play well, and at the very least, might help you move up in a draft. Dont the wizards now have a total of 3 picks going into this draft…or maybe its just two.
Collecting assets is part of the business, and sometimes its a better idea to take a good item, and turn it into several ok items that you can divide with what you have to make more moves. I think like all trades, its hard to guage the worth of a trade until an entire seasons played out.
People like mentioning the pau gasol to the lakers trade, using hindsight though, that trade wasnt all that bad for memphis, memphis wasnt going to compete with pau regardless, in fact pau might have kept them from getting some of the talent they have now. THey instead were able to use the assets from the lakers into pau’s brother, xavier henry and oj mayo (and then they screwed things up aftewards…but thats not here nor there)
I also think the organization wanted to do kirk a favor…he wasnt needed in the long run, and i want to say he was kind of miserable here….but thats just my speculation
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
eh
i think if he went to the lakers he wouldve had a nicer fit, although the lakers dont use the pg position in the traditional term. I like his fit in atl, its a place where he can play more of his game and find sucess. The last three years with the buls and wizards kirks been on some bad teams that really havent used him correctly. I think it atlanta the little things will stand out more, and will lead to more wins. I think atlanta fans are looking at this trade as zzzz, but they will appreciate kirks abilities more there then in washington. Bulls fans at least had 3 very good years with kirk to like him or dislike him, washington fans only got half a season and he really wasnt what they actually needed, now hes going to atlanta which will allow him to play more like in his early career (a defined 2 guard who can defend with him, a post presence, a coach).
As a fan of hinrich ive liked him this year, cuz he has added elements to his game that i havent seen much of in the last 4-5 years…mainly his ability to attack the basket has improved as well as his flashiness in his passes. I think those two elements will allow him to do real well if he was back in chicago.
I figure this is hinrichs chance to start for a good team, and then hopefully he wont mind finishing off his career on his last contract in chicago as a 6th man.
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
I dislike this trade
I don’t hate it but I don’t like it. Mo Evans is Thornton, Martin, Howard so basically he’s another duplicate. Crawford is a prospect not a player.
The 1st rder is the saving grace but at the expense of taking the turtle that is Bibby. we already play a disjointed game with no flow at all and adding the tortoise walking the bal up and shooting deep 3’s is gonna be even harder to take.
I’m just so convinced we have to fire 1st Ernie then let the new President fire Flip. Ernie has no plan he’s just reaching at this point. Next years draft is crap so we’ll get the same caliber player in the 20’s as we will in the lottery.
Not being a player at all in the superstar swap is puzzling there are none of those caliber guys in the draft at ;least this year. so what exactly are we waiting on.
building young and mediocre is no plan thats hoping and wishing.
this trade is bleh to me.
I think the impact of not having Cap Kirk is felt in these two recent losses.
just hope Bibby will be able to play a good 10 min backup point guard and Martin will be getting more min as backup SG.
this trade saves the wizards
… i’m kidding but I actually like it… jordan crawford has scary potential (not just from that one preseason game), and a 1st round pick, wherever it ends up being, is still a positive addition… throw in a veteran point guard who can hit the outside shot and (occassionally) create offense, and mo evans a decent defender and good spot up shooter… i mean hilton was a bench rider and kirk was a decent first guard off the bench… we add potential and lose older players with bigger contracts (sort of)… i dunno i like the trade
bring back darvin ham
i mean if john wall
doesn’t understand the value and benefit of this trade, he isn’t giving it full thought… it improves the team, say what you will about his relationship and mentorship with kirk but this trade improves the team’s outlook long-term, and that’s all any wizards fan or player or organizational employee should hope for right now
bring back darvin ham
Im pretty sure this was a salary based move more than anything
We’ll just have to see what happens with Crawford and the draft pick
Because Hilton was taking so many minutes?
It could benefit Cartier – but not if they really want to give Crawford a look.
And maybe Trevor gets more PT at the 3 with possibly no more 3 guard lineup – but Josh is back healthy there to take minutes, along with Shard.
I don’t think this does much PT wise this season unless Bibby really doesn’t want to come and agrees to a buyout, and even then there’s not really anyone I’d want to see pick up a bunch of minutes at PG.
10 minutes a game are a lot for a young player. Sure, Hilton has been playing less of late but that’s still one less player making mistakes at that position for the coaching staff to worry about.
We were overloaded with bigs and had a shortage on healthy guards. Ask yourself: Is Bibby better than Shakur? Probably. Is Crawford better than Martin? Probably. It’s not the best trade in the world, I would have liked it a lot sooner though.
@addc
Bibby is irrelevant – hopefully he has some knowledge to pass on to John for however long he is here. Plus he replaces Kirk, not Mustafa.
I’m not sold on Crawford being better than Cartier, but he does probably have more upside.
Hilton did average 10 overall, but he’s been under 5 in 2011, with quite a few DNP-CDs. I think Flip was already moving to as many minutes as he’s going to give Kevin anyway.
Funeral music? Really?
I’m not sure this trade is so bad. I liked Jordan Crawford coming out of last year’s draft.
and I’ve always considered Mike Bibby to be a tough outside shooter, although Hinrich is probably a better player. The fact that they got the number 1 pick, is a good thing, no? The more young players and picks we see while we rebuild, the better. Let them play the games. Maurice Evans is a tough customer too.
I don't look at players. I look at contracts.
Who cares about Crawford? He is getting 1.2 mil. Call him Quentin Ross. Then the 1st round pick is worth a little more than that. Thorton get 2.4 mil and what does he do out there? Hinrich gets 8 mil next season. Bibby gets 5.5 mil. It costs the Hawks 8 mil for one point guard and the Wiz 10.5 mil for 2. After next season, both Bibby and Lewis are gone. In the meantime, the Wiz will have collected up to 8 contracts that are either rookie 1st round guaranteed contracts or non guaranteed 2nd round contracts. They may go into the draft after next season and get 2 or 3 more draft picks and they could have 11 contracts that are 1st round or 2nd and if Blatche is traded, Wall becomes the highest paid player on the team and it will be a team of 1st and 2nd and 3rd year players. I see no sign of this process of downgrading contracts coming to an end.
I think that was the whole point of trading a 8 mil contract for a 5.5 mil contract which is more in line with Walls contract.. That makes Blatche the 2nd highest paid player on the team. They are setting a baseline for contracts and that baseline may turn out to be Wall. That just leaves Lewis’ contract to be eliminated and possibly Blatches if he doesn’t start putting up the numbers next season. They will trade him like they traded Hinrich and Arenas and Jamison and Butler and Haywood, etc. until Wall is paid the most. Contracts will not rise again until the team begins to win. The one thing they will have is plenty of cap space to help them win again.
That's GM, not fan thinking, right there.
Well reasoned.
by mogoman on Feb 24, 2011 9:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
It'd be a welcome development to have a team not filled with overpaid players
From the District of Columbia, home of the hyperbolic paraboloid transitional floating zone defense.
Crawford's debut
Can we PLEASE tote him out against Lebron on Friday?
I have no good signature ideas.
by Juice over Whine on Feb 24, 2011 6:35 AM EST reply actions
Lukewarm is the word
I don’t see much in this trade to improve the team short term and can’t really think a first round pick in the 20’s is going to help much long term. Kirk’s salary never bothered me as its not my money, didn’t really have a negative effect on our plans, and well, you gotta have some players on your team even if you’re rebuilding. I’m not sure where Crawford is supposed to fit in with Nick Young claiming the starting shooting guard position. And the one guy (Evans) who looks like he could be a solid contributor is the one who’s contract expires at the end of the year. So it just seems like a running in place move to me at best.
Minimal upside potential
Crawford or the pick may turn out to be valuable, albeit the chances are only about 10%,
Other than that, the trade is meaningless.
The bigger issue last night was the McGee/Whitman confrontation. Two wrongs don’t make a right, but Whitman is a total jerk. The dude is screaming at somebody on almost every play. And Flip just stands next to the guy and ignores him. Whitman needs a one-way ticket to a Carribean Island.
I may need a one-way ticket to a Carribean Island after those 2 blowouts!
"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff
" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 24, 2011 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
I was a little surprised at McGee's reaction to the trade
and wonder how much that contributed to the confrontation. He usually has the tuned-out thing down so well…
Armstrong left his jersey for McGee, who put it on over his clothes before walking out of the arena.
“I was angry. Hilton was my best friend on the team,” said McGee, who had heard speculation about the deal earlier in the day. “At least he gets a guaranteed spot on the playoffs.”
The shouting match was after the half, wasn’t it? So I’m wondering if McGee was feeling a little more wound up than usual.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizardsinsider/2011/02/another-wild-night-in-philadel.html
I'm pretty sure we'd have heard if he left wearing a Kirk jersey ;)
I don’t think John’s that “young” – I can’t imagine him saying he was angry over a trade or being so demonstrative over one, no matter what he’s actually feeling. John has the media sound byte thing down.
Although I guess that would just mean we didn’t know about it, not that it wasn’t there. I’m more worried about John hating who he plays with than missing who he no longer does.
But wouldn’t it be funny if Hilton turns out to be the guy that’s really missed, just out of some sort of influence over McGee?
Had no idea Hilton was Vale's best friend on the team
Anybody else surprised by that?
by Emmet O'Neal on Feb 24, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
He needs to grow up.
He is immature and needs to figure out that he is not playing HS basketball with HS coaches anymore.
by returnofswagger on Feb 24, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
The worst part about this article...
We’re letting Bibby wear #0!!!…We’re gonna give up the most famous number in franchise history to a year and a half rental….to another Arizona point guard at that.
by SkinsWizStangs on Feb 24, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Lukewarm is a pretty good word....
…. but lukewarm is better than tepid or chilly I guess. If the draft pick is used wisely, it’s a plus. If Jordan Crawford is not Gerald Green, the water is warmer. Can we flip Mike Evans to Boston for another draft pick today, hmm, almost OK for a nice bath?
Also, if I were GM I would consider buying out Mike Bibby to prevent any crepehanging (but, hey, Mike cannot feel any worse than Baron Davis this morning… ).
And then there was last night’s game itself. What an effing trainwreck we have on our hands.
"Last year, the Grizzlies gave away the 25th pick for $3 million in cash"
Correction, last year the Grizzlies didn’t give away the right to pick 25th. They gave away the draft rights to Dominique Jones, taken with the 25th pick. Before the draft vs after the draft- potentially a big difference. The pick may not have been available before the draft; after the draft, the player that ended up at 25th was available.
I think the Grizz may have been eying our own Trevor Booker (taken two spots earlier at #23) to back up Zach Randolph.
The trade was announced after the pick was made, but the deal was agreed to beforehand
As is the case with any of those deals.
Conditions
There may have been an agreement, but if so, I’d bet it came with a lot of conditions. Like if someone good had dropped, Memphis would have retained the right to take him instead of dealing the pick. So, maybe the price was only $3 million because Memphis held onto the pick’s upside potential of maybe grabbing a lottery-quality player with the pick.
"The Hawks dumped the 24th pick to trade down for even less cash."
Trade down from 24th to 27th. Big deal. Maybe they liked three players equally as much at 24, so maybe trading down to 27 cost them nothing.
Also, Atlanta is hard up against the luxury tax. The salary difference between the 24th and 27th pick might only be $100k, but if that tiny difference means the difference between paying the tax and getting under it, that’s millions of dollars on the bottom line.
Bottom line, you can’t just assume you will be able to buy picks for cash. I’m with EG on this one- get the picks now while you can, as long as the price is reasonable.
I like the trade
We had no use for Hinrich. Sure, his professionalism was nice to have around Wall, but I tend to think most rookies “get it” by midseason of their rookie year, as long as the NBA season is. At this point, he’s been around the league. Sure, he’s still got plenty to learn, but that will be the case for the next few years. Regardless, he’s by far the best player on the team. Armstrong was a body in the way of the younger guys. So they essentially shipped out two guys who we KNEW weren’t in the long term plans, for a player ( Crawford), and a pick who very well could be in the long term plans.
As for Crawford himself, I think he could be useful as a scoring punch off the bench. He reminds me a lot of JAMAL CRAWFORD, a tweener guard who can come in and light it up off the bench. I also think he can be useful as an “emergency” PG as well, rather than forcing that position on Howard.
Evans gives us a solid veteran who can play defense, and Bibby, well, hopefully he won’t be long around here.
Like becoming president
I really don’t like losing Kirk for all the reasons Mike points out, but I’m not going to lose too much sleep over Wall’s unhappiness with losing him…right now. It’s kind of like Obama winning the presidency during a deep recession. 2 years in people (John Wall) may be unhappy because the economy still isn’t great, but what Obama knows (EG in this case) is that he has two more years before the people vote (Wall becomes free agent), so that’s the window to get it turned around. He has to make the right, sometimes unpopular decisions now so that when the election happens things are better.
Also, and this is just a hunch, GMs that want to trade a lotto pick for money still want a first round pick because it’s good for the fans, gives the papers something to write about, something shiny and new. So this pick we’re getting from ATL strikes me as a pick that can be packaged with some cash to move way up on draft day.
by mogoman on Feb 24, 2011 9:07 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Mike, you make some good points
who knows what goes on in the locker room. Maybe JWall really did look up to Hinrich. And no, the Wizards did not save any money. That is obvious. For the Wizards to insinuate that they did is insulting.
But to me, there is 0% chance that we were going to want to Captain Kirk on the Wizards in 2012. Meanwhile, there is 50% chance that we will want Jordan Crawford, and 70% chance that we will want the 24th pick in the 2011 draft around in 2012. If the Wiz don’t mind eating the salary, I am all for it.
by John Park Williams on Feb 24, 2011 9:13 AM EST reply actions
I wonder what Kirk would have gathered if he was traded next year
Probably not this, but surely something. I dunno.
You dont think he'd be worth more as an expiring next year?
by mogoman on Feb 24, 2011 9:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yep. Bibby also expires at the end of next year.
Fact is that a bad player’s value increases fastest as the expiration date gets closer. A good player’s value doesn’t increase as quickly. In the extreme case, a really good player’s value can actually go down as their contract approaches expiration. Look at Bosh and LeBron last year. Their trade value dropped to not much more than the value of any other expiring contract, because it became clear that they wanted to test the FA market and didn’t want to sign an extension. Nobody wanted to give up assets for what could have been just a few months rental.
In that value equation, it makes perfect sense to trade Hinrich for Bibby now.
I like it
I have been reading this blog for 3 years now and it’s a saving grace for a wizards fan. I dont understand what we want from EG – he is damned if he does and damned if he don’t. Now I’m no EG fan, but if we want to build through the draft this is a good deal. We save “only” $500k but thats maybe $500k that we could put towards buying a draft pick bc lets remember you have to buy the pick for 3mil and then pay the player.
KH was avg 11 ppg as a 6th man on the wizards, and I really think his leadership was overrated bc when I watch games he never pulled a KG and got in someones face (and I am in no way comparing KH to KG as a player). He played tough d, but lets face it – it was rubbing off on the other players. Ask a casual Mavs fan who the 6th man on the Wizards is and they will laugh at you – we got a backup vet pg and a 1st round pick for him.
Are there better prospects then Jordon Crawford in the NBA, sure but he was a prospect on the 4th seed – now he is a prospect on a team that has won 13 games and will get more run time. Bibby is avg 9 ppg and is looking for 1 more contract in the league so he might play harder then we think. Evans is well, he can take Hilton’s spot on the bench. At the 22 spot maybe be pick up another Booker a guy who hussles.
I’m not saying EG is a great GM (he is below avg if you ask me), but look at the players he has to work with. We wanted to get draft picks and save money and we accomplished both.
yeah, I think Hinrich's effect on the team was overrated.
Look how they play….sure didnt appear anybody followed his lead. Not his fault at all, but it seems far more is made about his leadership and supposed mentoring than actually showed up on the floor. We received some decent assets for a decent player and he’s happy to go…so I guess that’s a win-win that worked out well for all parties.
I didn't think he was a leader, per se
I just think he did his job and competed, which in and of itself is a problem with these guys.
Honestly I think they were dragging him down of late
Recently his body language was way off and he was coming in and just gunning, often looked miserable. No one player no matter how well-intentioned can change what we have going on here! Kirk is not the type to talk, but I’d love to hear what he though of our atmosphere vs Chic and Atl
Jordan with the steal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRKxFL3rcXI I think J. Crawford will jack up a ton of contested 3s which will get frustrating on a team that can’t rebound, but I like the trade and agree with the youth movement.
No one is saying anything about Bibby
But he’s pretty good. Not what he once was, but he’ll make a solid backup to Wall. I also get the impression that Bibby is better at creating shots than Hinrich. Hinrich’s offensive game is so awkward looking, though, it can be misleading. He could be effective at times.
Bibby's game is in sharp decline (more so than Kirk's which is gradual) and he's horrible on defense
Also has a history of pouting. With any luck, we’ll buy him out so he doesn’t infect the team.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on Feb 24, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
Hinrich may have helped a little
but his impact wasn’t enough to affect the play of the majority of our key players. Getting compliments from Wall isn’t enough; Blatche and Young would also need to be on board.
How many times did those two reference Kirk’s competitiveness and professionalism as something to praise or emulate? How many times did Kirk’s presence on the floor impact their productivity?
For young teams, if your veteran player isn’t the Hero or the Leader, they have to be the Obi-Wan. If he isn’t influencing our top young guns, either they have to go, or he does.
Your math is flawed
If we save $500K next year and then sign the draft pick, it pretty much evens out. I agree with you so far. But you still want the draft pick. So let’s say we get the draft pick with $3Mil. At that point we don’t save the $500K, we lose an additional $3Mil, AND we pay for the draft pick. So, we might not be saving any money against what we were scheduled to pay next year b/c of the draft pick, but if that draft pick is a constant in both situations, then we definitely will be saving.
In terms of option A vs. option B, yes
But with just this trade, we save nothing, and yet the team talked about “financial flexibility”
You have to stop thinking only of next season
Look past next season and the wiz are basically locking in cheap rookie contracts for the next 3+ seasons. With Lewis coming off the books over 2 seasons, that will add 22 mil in liquidity. They are depreciating their assets, but investing in cheap assets with a predictable cost over a predictable time period while adding liquidity. This leads to financial flexibility over time. I think Grunfeld knew he screwed up with all those giant contracts he put together and flunked and this time he enacting cost control. Crawford is 1.2 mil over the next 3 seasons. Whoever they draft is a little more than that over 4 seasons. That isn’t much more than what this team paid Thorton. Thorton is one player and his value is stuck. Now they have 2 players with a potential increase in value.
if the team brings back N’Diaye and score yet another pick in this draft and that is 9 players on this roster under your control. all with the potential to appreciate, bring in 3 more next draft and that is 12 players under cost control and with the potential to appreciate and all the while adding cash. its one way to rebuild
by hambonejackson on Feb 24, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Kirk was coming off the books anyway
The flexibility was there already from the Lewis/Arenas trade. That has nothing to do with this one.
They still grabbed two contracts that are cheap
and can grow in value. Not a draft pick. Two rookie contracts. I think Grunfeld liked that idea. If he could have traded for 3 of them, I am sure he would have.
by hambonejackson on Feb 24, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
They are driving contracts down and telling Wall to go screw himself at the same time
There will be no veteran help for Wall. Its all about accumulating rookie contracts because they are the best contracts.
by hambonejackson on Feb 24, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
The Clippers are traded their UNPROTECTED 1st rounder!!!!!!!
I could have lived with Davis if we traded Thorton, Yi, Kirk and Howard in return for their unprotected 1st rounder…..
its a top 10, likely top 5 and possible top 3 pick for crying out loud!
"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff
" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson
Yes, but a weak draft
Not saying we shouldn’t do it – but this ain’t 2003
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on Feb 24, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
only problem is
we already have rashard and he is going to make 30 mil next 2 seasons and davis is making 29 mil over the next 2 seasons – having 60 mil wrapped up in 2 avg players is not what a rebuilding team needs. The pick would have been nice but this years draft isn’t supposed to be that great so with the hawks pick we could possibly get the same type of player and save money.
Ur right, i jumped my gun
(that’s what she said, i know)
I just read it and got really hyper for a second. If you are cleveland its a good move though
"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff
" My psychiatrist just doesn't know what I go through. He is a Lakers fan" Hambonejackson
by Dutch Hoopfan on Feb 24, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Some players that have been drafted around 20 recently
2010: Eric Bledsoe 18, Trevor Booker 23, Quincy Pondexter 26
2009: Ty Lawson 18, Eric Maynor 20, Darren Collison 21, Taj Gibson 26
2008: JaVale McGee 18, J.J. Hickson 19, Ryan Anderson 21, Courtney Lee 22, Serge Ibaka 24, Nicolas Batum 25, George Hill 26
This trade accomplishes exactly what Ted has mandated and it follows the clearly stated team goals. Ted wants the team to get as much young talent as possible and see which ones step forward. If nothing else you have to admire EG’s ability to successfully follow the team owner’s direction. We are still in teardown mode. It’s going to be a long rebuild.
We believed that volume would yield better results than precision. We decided to trade multiple stars at their prime or peak to get a large volume of young players. Young players will get better as they age, so you have built in upside. Youngsters push vets to play better to keep their jobs, and they stay healthier, and they are more fun—less jaded by pro sports.
IMHO, that very well may be a flawed philosophy
Volume may yield better results than precision in hockey and football, but not in the nba. Top picks in talented drafts get results in the nba, volumes of late 1st rounders dont lead to anything which is exactly why teams are constantly selling, trading, and shedding them.
Actually. you only need 3 uber type players
Wall and 2 more. If the team can get one more in the draft then they could score one in free agency. The Chicago model. Rose + Noah + Boozer= Contender. The rest of the players can be role players taken in the draft. This also keeps the payroll down.
by hambonejackson on Feb 24, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
"only" 3 uber players?
The low payroll, late 1st round pick, roster model you are discussing above results in a 20win team every year and no FAs wanting to come here AND wall probably wanting to leave. We have (hopefully) one uber-player in Wall….where do we get the other 2? There’s not a single player in this year’s draft that scouts are looking at as a nba stud.
Noah wasn't considered a stud either
and did any one really think that Love would be the player he is? Who cares what people say about a draft. Bryant was drafted 13th I think. Jordan was around #8. So, how often are scouts right? So, yes. There may be a few studs in this draft and maybe the wiz will score one.
by hambonejackson on Feb 24, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Jo and love were lottery picks, though
Kobe was one of the earliest straight from HS guys, and Jordan was a #3.
Yeah, there is the occasional late round surprise, but that’s really a crap shoot.
Loads of young talent can work out, but it’s risky. It didn’t get the Bulls or the Blazers where they wanted to go. Jury’s still out on OKC. And all those teams tried it with multiple lottery picks, not just the draft in general.
Maybe they can use the pick to move up, or package it for a known quantity if the new CBA really shakes things up. But a low 20s pick is pretty blah.
I was referring to this years lottery pick, not the other pick
The Wiz will have a top 5 pick. There may well be a stud in there.
by hambonejackson on Feb 24, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
First of all we're talking high 20's.
The league is FILLED with very productive players picked in the 20’s.
Josh Howard was a 29. That same year Barbosa, Perkins, Outlaw, Diaw were all in that 20 and over range. ZaZa, Mo Williams, Korver were all 2nd rounders.
The next year Kevin Martin, Udrih, Tony Allen, Delonte West, Jameer Nelson.
The next year David Lee, Maxiel, Jarrett Jack.
You won’t get Melo in the 20’s, but you still need good productive role players to form a good team. I’d rather draft them in the 20’s then keep trying D-Leaguers where pearls are even harder to find.
Yeah, there are some
There are a lot more misses.
The team can get better adding good players through the draft. The odds of getting 1, much less 2, stars by drafting is steep. Best bet is they choose well and can pull off a trade. It’s a road that requires a lot of luck.
Then again, I suppose all roads are.
There are a lot of misses.
That’s why you get as many as possible. 3 late teen early 20’s picks in 2 years. If 2 of them are in your top 8 in 5 years that’s great. Considering Booker already looks like one I think we’re doing pretty good.
by MR on Feb 24, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
More kids to get PT for
Fewer vets to help out. More guys coming up for contracts at the same time.
It’s just a different set of problems. I’m cool if you prefer that method. I’m more in favor of adding one, max two rooks per year. If EG loads up on picks, I hope it’s to consolidate them or to use them for a trade.
I mostly agree
The only issue is that picks in the 20-30 range have guaranteed contracts. If you’re going to stockpile, in an ideal world, I’d stockpile 30-40 picks because they don’t have the guaranteed deal
Noah might be the consensus big man in the draft this year
true 7footer off of a 2time ncaa championship squad…No GM in their right mind would take Sullinger over Noah coming out of college and Noah went 9th, sorry, but the top of the draft sucks this year.
Of course I hope I’m dead wrong, but I’m not going to delude myself into believing just because we have a high pick we can assume another big time player is on the way.
Noah would not be the consensus big man this year
I liked him, but plenty of scouts thought he was average at best. He was not athletic enough. he is slow. He can’t shoot. There was a whole litany of things about him.
Its Grunfelds job to makes sure that this team gets that stud. He has to for this team to succeed.
by hambonejackson on Feb 24, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
We will hopefully have a top 5 pick this year. That's where you get stars.
at 20-ish we can get a long term role player
overall
160 minutes. nuff said on that sample size.
the Wizards have yet to spend on draft picks. Where are they in attendance? Do they really have the cash to do it?
“Thefolosha (thought he was drafted by Chicago?) and Ibaka are a better use of the picks.” Its unfair to knock this deal because the picks or recent draft pick we received isn’t in the rotation yet, while those guys are. We haven’t used the second pick or seen Crawford play. Its like getting and egg and saying boo cuz you were hungry for chicken.
They traded one of those picks for Thabo
That line was only to say that the trade means little if the picks acquired aren’t used well. Not a criticism specifically.
Totally overthinking it.
Ok, so it’s not a masterwork of immediate franchise launching perfection, but I still fail to see any difference at all between this and your Option B. None of the guys involved in this are at all significant to the NBA in any manner, just interchangeable parts.
Fine, you’re lukewarm, but the difference between the other option is completely negligible. Hinrich was too expensive anyways.
live pleasant
by eastcoastatlas on Feb 24, 2011 11:01 AM EST reply actions
I dont see a need to project out the next five years of Jordan crawford's career
Give him the spaghetti test. Throw him out there and see if he sticks. If he were projected to be a star level player, then he would probably not be available in trade.
Anyway, I guess it doesn’t need to be said that anticipated/projected level of future play doesn’t necessarily always become actual level of future play.
So as far as this trade goes, I like it. The wiz have essentially turned hinrich into three draft picks. Hard to complain about that
by jones-y on Feb 24, 2011 11:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Garbage
What’s the sense of stockpiling picks when the picker can’t pick? And you can’t keep everybody over time if the picks pan out anyway. John Wall will get a hefty contract when his time comes. But what about the others? They won’t be able to pay all these #1’s over time and keep tje team intact. You can for the first few years while they devleop but another team will pluck the fruits of your labor once these guys finish their rookie contracts. So basically we should sit back for the next four years and watch other teams compete while we wait for them to run their course and our team mature? C’mon!
no one said 4 years
one guy’s problem is that these players won’t be good enough. your problem is that they will all be good, too good to keep.
and if the problem is we have TOO MUCH talent, isn’t that easily handled with a packaged trade for a guy higher in the rotation?
I said 4 years b/c
all the other teams in the conference have gotten better and will be on that level for at least 4 yrs and I never said they all will be good, I said that’s IF they pan out, which I dont believe b/c the GM cant draft
by realbulletgm on Feb 24, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Hey
I wasnt calling your post garbage now that I’m looking at the order. I was talking about the moves the Wizards make and will make.
by realbulletgm on Feb 24, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent trade.
You simply can’t discount Crawford here as you’re doing, Mike. You don’t know, any more than I do, if he’ll be any good or not. None of us know until he gets minutes. But that’s an important part of your analysis, rendering your conclusion shaky.
And when you’re rebuilding a team, it’s ALL ABOUT ASSETS. Having a top-5 pick and, at present value, a #22 first-round pick gives you more options, because you have more assets. Say a good young veteran is available via trade. You’re competing with other clubs for this player. You now have more ammunition to use to get him.
Or let’s say the Wiz get the #4 pick and want to move up a spot or two. Well, they now have another asset to get there. That’s why the additional first-rounder can’t be discounted. There are so many variables that having as many assets as possible is crucial.
Great trade by Ernie.
Nobody is going to give up the #2 overall pick for the #4 + the #21 imho
a team looking to get rid of the #2 believes the draft is no good and wants to move way down
You can't say that yet.
It depends on how the teams see the players available in those slots. In addition, if Crawford shows something this year, that’s another young asset the Wiz have to bargain with. And yeah, moving up to #3 or #2 (in this scenario) is certainly possible with a second first-round pick and player.
My point was that there are so many variables, that more assets gives you more options.
I cant recall a team ever moving down 2 spots that high in the draft
of course maybe it happens all the time and i just dont remember…but I feel like every team up that high stays with their pick. That’s where the GOLD is. Hell, just watching ’Melo’s 1st game with the Knicks you start to think “yeah, guess they really didnt give up too much”
You keep using the same single scenario.
It could be a move up one spot. It could be a move from 6 to 4. It could be from 4 to 2, if the opposing GM likes Crawford and another first-round pick. There simply are a multitude of scenarios, and having more assets is better.
Wait...
So is it ATL’s pick for THIS year or next? I’m getting conflicting reports. Someone set me straight, please!
meh
The question is could they have gotten more for Kirk. Probably, but how much more? 2 first rounders and a sandbag is good enough. Meh
Is this year one or year two of the rebuild
The only reason I ask is because if we are following the OKC model they had four years of dreary basketball.
All in all I love the trade. We get another first round pick and a young talent all for practically nothing. I am not in any way poo-pooing what Kirk brought to this team but if we go back to the threads when the initial trade from Chicago was made the overriding opinion was that Kirk was an asset. Brought here more so to acquire a first round pick and bring us something in return when he moves on.
EG not only accomplished that but flipped him for another asset ( Bibby ).
Bibby is not an asset really. What does he actually contribute? Hinrich brought leadership and flexibility, and someone who was actually motivated by defense. I have absolutely no idea why Bibby would want to give his all and risk any kind of injury for this particular franchise.
John Carlson: A real American hero taking names and settling scores.
Souldrummer: A regular guy trying to join Adam Dunn, Jordan Zimmermann, and Garrett Mock as one of RobBobS' guys.
No you read it wrong
or maybe I typed it wrong I wasn’t talking in the sense of him being a team asset but just a trade asset because his contract expires next year. I agree that Bibby is an empty shell when compared to Kirk on the basketball court.
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