For a team to succeed in the NBA, it requires a collection of individual talent and a synergy among the players.

For simplicity, let’s use 82game’s Simple Rating to see where the Wiz stand and what can be expected in the coming season. As background, a good player (but not quite an all-star) would have a Simple Rating of about 5 (e.g., Lamar Odom, Luol Deng). If the five starters on a team have a cumulative Simple Rating of 15 or so, they should make the playoffs (e.g., Atlanta). The Wiz starters had a cumulative rating of around 2 last year.

Here’s how the individual players have fared with respect to the Simple Rating and my projections for this year:

McGee: -4.2 (2009-10), +2.7 (2010-11), this coming year = +4.0

Blatche: -0.3 (2008-9), +1.3(2009-10), +1.4(2010-11), this coming year = +1.5

Young: -2.2 (2008-9), +0.1(2009-10), 1.9 (2010-11), this coming year = +2.5

Wall: -2.8 (2010-11), this coming year = +3.8 (note: Derrick Rose went from -1.8 to 4.8)

Lewis: 7.3 (2008-9), -0.8(2009-10), 0.8(2010-11), this coming year = +1.0

Hence, it looks like the Wizard’s starters would have a combined simple rating of about 13 which should be good enough to make the playoffs. That five man unit had a +/- rating in terms of scoring of a positive 29 last year.

In terms of the bench, this factor appears to be a real weakness for the Wiz:

Crawford: -3.5(2010-11), this coming year= -1.0

Booker: -1.5(2010-11), this coming year = 0

Seraphin: -11.8 (2010-11), this coming year = -7.0

Veseley: this coming year = -7.0

Net, net: this team still will continue to struggle with rebounding and shooting percentage, but they could squeak into the playoffs.

The biggest risk to improvement is an injury to one of the starters. The second biggest risk is friction between Flip and our 3 young, talented knuckleheads.

On the flip side, I don’t see much upside beyond the above projections. I believe that the Wiz will have to trade for a high draft selection and also get a marque free agent in the 2012 bonanza to become a quality contender.