Links: Pro Basketball Prospectus Is Here, Wizards Still Developing Roles
by Mike Prada on Dec 22, 2011 9:41 AM EST
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PrintToday's links. A note: I'm taking a couple days off before the season begins, so content from me might be a bit light.
- If you buy one book this season, make it Pro Basketball Prospectus. The 2011-12 version is now out, and I can tell you Kevin Pelton, Bradford Doolittle worked incredibly hard to make this happen. If you're tight with money, you can preview a bunch of chapters, including the Wizards' blurb featuring yours truly. [PBP]
- John Wall delivered a pretty striking quote about how the Wizards don't know their roles yet. Seems like something that needs to be figured out ASAP. [Michael Lee, Washington Post | Craig Stouffer, Washington Examiner]
- Complete -- and I mean complete -- rundown of the Wizards' second preseason game. [Truth About It]
- Jan Vesely is still being bothered by a hip injury. [Wizards Insider | Cheers And Jeers]
- Flip Saunders chats with Chris Miller about things. I'm honestly not sure how to describe this better. [CSN Washington]
- An entire blog post on whether it's too hard to see the Wizards' uniform number on their road jerseys. My answer: I guess, but whatever. [DC Sports Bog]
- Trevor Booker talks about actually playing in an actual game again. [Wizards Insider]
- JaVale McGee shows off his potty mouth. [SB Nation D.C.]
- Andrew Sharp picks the Wizards to finish ninth in the East. [SB Nation]
- Ron Thompson on what constitutes a successful Wizards season. [CSN Washington]
- Lobtropolis seems fun. [SB Nation]
- DeShawn Stevenson is going to the Nyets. [Star-Ledger]
- My NBA Watchability Rankings are hitting the mothership any minute now. Spoiler alert: Wizards are at No. 17.
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This is Flips' 3rd season and players don't know their roles?
Granted, lots of new players so it makes some sense…but when Wall says they don’t know who the primary scorer will be that’s trouble. We’re going to have 3-4 guys trying to prove to Flip they should be the primary option with 2 of them (Javale and Nick) in contract years. Let the me-ball commence!
by DCrez on Dec 22, 2011 10:02 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Wall doesn't know his role yet.....
I’ll give you a hint John- sprinting past everyone in a race to the baseline is not it.
Manage the offense.
by DCPerspective on Dec 22, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Let me help you out, John
Your first, second and third scoring option is Nick Young. Otherwise, penetrate and dish to the bigs in the paint with Mason, Singleton and Young camped out on the wing. If both fail, keep passing the ball. Repeat after me: You are NOT a scoring guard.
by Unselds on Dec 22, 2011 10:12 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
but look at him, he IS a scoring point
all that speed and athletcism, almost no one in the league should be able to stay in front of him and if his J is improved….why not drop 35 when he can?
J isn't there yet
But let’s not try to turn him into Rondo either.
You’re right though, if that J starts dropping then it’s over
Saw an article from SI link - Point Forward
Comparing Wall with Rubio and the different styles they play. The article is very good discussing why Wall’s speed has not helped him to develop.
Do you know how the Wizards were chosen
as the sample chapter? are Wizards fans the least likely to buy the book?
Congrats on the inclusion in the book…
If you look at page 4 of the Wiz chapter....
….and if you didn’t read the article, you would conclude the team is: 1) miserable and 2) worse than it was five years ago. And the one year forecast wasn’t too good either.
Nevertheless, I understand the argument is that we are rebuilding. But here is what we have committed to in the 2014/2015 season:
Wall – $9.5M
Blatche – $8.5M
Vesely – $4.5M
Seraphin – $3.2M
Booker – $3.2M
Crawford – $3.2M
Singleton – $2.6M
No commitment to Nick Young and no commitment yet to Javale McGee.
Looking at the list, other than Wall, there are no potential high-impact stars on this roster. That means the whole premise of improving through rebuilding is predicted on getting stars in the future. However, the team or its managers have missed much more than hit in getting stars. So that doesn’t leave the fans with much hope on a principled basis. Or, in other words, it requires blind faith in the people who have delivered the results on page 4 of the article.
Hopefully, Ted shakes things up before next season.
by Izman on Dec 22, 2011 10:39 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
can you point to specific instances under ernie where the wizards missed getting a star?
does signing GA from the warriors, and trading kwame for caron, and trading devin harris for antawn jamison count for anything? iric, those guys did make all-star appearances. drafting john wall? that count for anything? the jury is still out on mcgee, who we do currently have under contract.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 22, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
drafting Wall ws pure luck
Those other moves are nice, but then there is crap like saying no one in the draft could help us so we traded the 5th pick for foyer/miller. Sure people like to blame Abe for that, but then you have to credit Abe for successful moves right? IMHO, Ernie has been very much a middling GM, can make the case to fire him but also make the case to keep him.
who cares if wall was lucky? it still counts
you point to one move, where we “missed” rubio, curry, or jennings. it’s really not a game changer for the franchise. i don’t see the warriors, wolves, or bucks doing much better.
you can make an argument either way on ernie, because you’re right, we haven’t gotten past the second round of the playoffs, but gilbert’s knee injury has done more to dismantle this franchise than anything ernie did or didn’t do.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 22, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
There is always some luck
Everyone calls Sam Presti the NBA’s best GM but he too got really lucky when he happened to have the #2 pick in the Oden-Durant draft (and Portland chose Oden). Ernie’s made a lot of nice moves. The trade of the #5 is the worst thing Ernie did, and even that made sense at the time. And Curry is not a star.
by Kenny Sky Walker on Dec 22, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
if that's the best anyone can come up with
i think that speaks pretty well for ernie’s tenure here
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 22, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
drafting Pech after working out Rondo
signing Gil to $110mill deal after not monitoring his rehab.
pech was a poor choice
and what the heck, i’ll give you credit for rondo. while pure hindsight, if you really don’t like EG, that’s definitely one you can harp on. whiffing on the 18th pick in 2006. i will say that the two guys he’s missed were both point guards and we already had gil.
on that note, letting gil walk was a non-starter. it’s a non-argument.
if i were you i’d point to keeping the arenas/jamison/butler trio together too long. that miller/foye move was the culmination of that mistake more than THE mistake. he should have blown it up a year earlier. that’s the one truly fair criticism with lasting consequences that you can make of him i think, and that discounts all the good decisions he’s made here, of which there have been plenty.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 22, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Foye/Miller/Curry...
Ernie’s job at that time was to get good, experienced vets to surround the “Big 3”, not to rebuild with youth. It didn’t work out, because of injuries, but Ernie did what he was tasked with by Abe. Foye was on his way up at the time, and Miller was a sixth-man of the year award winner. At that time, I thought it was a good trade, given what the Wiz were trying to do as a team.
yeah, that's the flip-side of the argument
and i’m actually glad the wiz went for it, but i won’t hold it against someone who thinks ernie should have taken a different direction there. the original post implies ernie is a lousy gm though. that i will dispute.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 22, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Come on
I’m sure they “monitored” his rehab.
by Kenny Sky Walker on Dec 22, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
they famously allowed him to do his own thing
remember that WPost article where Gil was doing sprints with a parachute trailing behind him? Talking about HIS theory that he had to just push through all the knee pain until it went away?
How does the team get so dysfunctional that gungate even happens? How come the much talked of “culture of losing” doesnt extend to Ernie, the GM who is 128 games below .500 during his tenure and has gun gate as the feather in his cap?
Really it surprises me more people don’t call for EG’s departure, every player anyone has an issue with is someone Ernie handpicked
You can't just cherry-pick the best player that was available at 5
No one had curry going that high. Pretty much any team there would have taken rubio or flynn, who haven’t panned out well at all.
by zl on Dec 22, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Two questions
other than Wall, there are no potential high-impact stars on this roster.
1. How do you define “potential high-impact star”?
2. How many other teams that have more than 1 “potential high-impact stars” committed for the 2014/2015 season?
Because it seems to me like you’re setting a pretty high standard.
by steadyhand on Dec 22, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Wiz are 264-392 during Ernie's tenure with best season being 45 wins
I would counter that’s a pretty low standard
that's probably the best anti-ernie argument
but what we get in next year’s draft might go a long way toward changing that
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 22, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Arenas always being hurt was the reason
And Gil made us relevant, so he had to be kept. As far as his salary, He was ballin back then. Top 5-10 ballin
The standard ought to be a top 6....
…team in the power rankings, given the size of the market.
The Clippers have gotten there very quickly after drafting their rookie of the year. Their pieces fit nicely and they have more than one high impact player.
If you look at OKC, you see Durant and Westbrook as obvious high impact stars, but I would also put Harden in that category, and I would give their GM kudos for putting together a combination of skills that work well together.
The most likely star on our committed list for 2014 (other than Wall) is Vesely, but he shot 40% from the foul line last year. I don’t know about you, but I hit 75% from the foul line and I’m old and decrepit. It’s not encouraging that he needs a shooting coach.
by Izman on Dec 22, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OKC and LAC...
it took OKC 3 solid years of awfulness before they became good. we are at 1 1/2 years since we started our rebuild. being awful was how OKC acquired durant and westbrook.
LAC drafted griffin a year before wall, let’s see where we’re at next season. also, i wouldn’t cite LAC as a model of anything. they just dumped the first pick overall for essentially nothing, since they could have simply amnestied baron davis. if we’re comparing ernie to that, i’m sticking with ernie, thanks.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 22, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Clips also lost Griffin for a year, netting them an extra top pick. We would have Derrick Williams for sure w/o Wall last season.
Really
Losing terribly the year after getting the #1 is ideal. Drafting Jan Vesely on the other hand is not.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 22, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes wouldn't it have been nice if Harden had slipped to #5 three drafts ago?
Would EG have still traded that pick for Miller and Foye?
I don’t think anyone realized at the time that Harden was going to be such a stud, but Sam Presti may have had it worked out!
I would have killed to get Harden there
I thought he was the only player worth drafting in that lotto.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 22, 2011 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Clippers? Are you serious?
Chris Paul would be in Laker gold if not for David Stern. That was what’s known as luck. And drafting Griffin was as much a no-brainer as drafting Wall.
Also:
Durant was No. 2
Westbrook was a No. 4
Harden was a No. 3
Other than Wall, we haven’t drafted nearly as high as OKC. McGee was a good pick at his spot, as was Blatche (second-rounder), as was Young.
Gonna have to do better than that, my friend.
YellaFella
There are so many facts showing EG’s poor performance it’s hard to choose. But here’s one showing that the Wizards are the least efficient team in the NBA.
And the year before, they weren’t much better.
If I had a record like this, I would resign out of embarrassment. But, then again, I would have resigned after the Arenas/Critteron “incident”.
salary/projected wins = efficient?
Didn’t they bet that Wizards win 10 games last season?
Oh common, Abe enabled that culture
Not much of an EG fan but he isn’t to blame for that
The 2 aholes pulling out in the locker room were.
Gil and Crit gey ALL the blame. ALL OF IT
of course ernie shares in the balme, it was his team
Critt is specifically a guy Ernie went out and got, wanted him here badly. Gil was allowed to run the insane asylum. No way Ernie just gets a complete pass for assembling the cast he did, he’s the GM, that means he’s the boss- not Gil, not Critt, not Dray.
They don't meet your criteria
OKC: Only Durant is locked up for 2014/15.
Clippers: CP3 will likely be long gone. Sterling’s not exactly known for retaining players, and Paul seems intent choosing his own destination.
Meanwhile the Wizards have 6 first round picks in their first or second year, and Blatche, who will still be in his prime (and should therefore be good for at least some strong bench play). We’re far from set, but the rebuild is clearly underway.
The problem
I think we should be a little nervous about Ernie’s drafting going forward. He hasn’t proven a whole lot so far.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 23, 2011 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
Sacramento comes to mind...
Minnesota with Rubio and Derrick Williams. Neither of them on Wall’s level though.
But that’s all I got.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 22, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Sacto
They at least got Evans and Cousins, both of whom played well in the NBA already. But the guys for MN you name have not played a minute yet. You could have called Evan Turner a potentially high impact guy after he was POY and the #2 pick, but then it played out and no one’s really calling him that now. So, I don’t think it’s right to include MN as having 2 potential franchise guys locked up for 2014.
by Kenny Sky Walker on Dec 22, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
ummm and k love?
and less you’re just considering him high-impact with the ‘potential’ tag removed…in which case i feel you
by Wizards Khalifa on Dec 23, 2011 4:36 AM EST up reply actions
Chuck Hayes apparently doesn't have a heart problem
I remember Mike really wanted him. I’m still open to it but I think we got a poor man’s Chuck Hayes, somewhat, in Ronny Turiaf. What does everyone think?
Follow me on Twitter: @adamvolo
Roster is full now
I would love to have him but I don’t think it is likely we’ll go after him at this point
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
by Dutch Hoopfan on Dec 22, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
We got the type of player without the financial commitment
we better get our man/men in 2012 FA…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 22, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
we din't even know who should have whatever role ourselves....
But wall is our number one scoring option. I say that because he is the focal point of the offense and must draw in the defense to open up nick or dray or Rashard or whoever else. So he must manage and be active in looking for his points. Nash, Paul, and Deron Williams were all number one options on offense on their teams last year.
by thewiz06 on Dec 22, 2011 1:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Wall is not Arenas
I hate it when the point is the primary scorer. Thats a team going nowhere. Wall should be the scorer of last resort. Jordan scored when the team needed points. He liked to keep the rest of the team active by passing the ball and that is the role Wall should play because otherwise the team begins to turn into spectators.Wall needs to maintain a flow. Do you really want Blatche and McGee standing around for very long?
by hambonejackson on Dec 22, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
are the Bulls going nowhere?
i get your point 100%, but right now the flipside is who would you rather have as the primary scorer? Wall has a heavy burden to bear, has to create a ton of offense for himself AND get others involved
they got shut down a little too easy
one could argue that they won’t beat the heat or thunder with their current formula but i guess they aren’t ‘nowhere’ because id be pretty happy if the wizards were in their position
by Wizards Khalifa on Dec 23, 2011 4:38 AM EST up reply actions
The Bulls got Rip
Next to impossible to shut that kind of player down.
That offense
You name a way for them to score, they have a guy that does it well.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 23, 2011 8:05 AM EST up reply actions
I think it's a balancing act for a point guard who is the best scorer on a team.
Even if Wall becomes an Arenas type guard on offense, Blatche and McGee need to be strong off the ball players to either open up Wall for drives, or be able to make cuts to the basket for layups. If anyone starts becoming a spectator, Wall’s shots are harder to make and he will be more turnover prone. Player movement helps ball movement and vice versa
Its not about scoring but winning.
No player managed games better than Jordan. He new when to be the primary scorer and he knew when to be decoy and facilitator. Thats where Wall needs to get at. He needs experience and maybe a couple of better players (that remains to be seen).
by hambonejackson on Dec 22, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed- he needs to learn how to manage the flow of the offense.
And he definitely needs to realize he can and should change gears. Right now he’s sprinting with the ball.
He will, in fact Mack is going to be a rather good model for him to learn from. Mack controls and leads an offense very well.
by DCPerspective on Dec 22, 2011 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Andrew Sharp thought...
getting rid of Rashard Lewis and getting Kris Humphries was going to make this team better? Really? Come on dude, I think you can’t honestly believe that. This team is clearly in a holding pattern until next year. Next year it is very possible that have of this team won’t be here.
by ThePGPhenomenon on Dec 22, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions
That would make us a lot better.
If Humphries maintained his rebounding ability.
I think we severely underestimate how bad our defensive rebounding is and how bad hurts this team. Short and long term.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 22, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
kris humphries
really? i swear he would just destroy the team chemistry once Dre finally snapped and whooped his a** (feel like a 7 year old censoring that but im not totally sure whats acceptable…)
by Wizards Khalifa on Dec 23, 2011 4:40 AM EST up reply actions
Wall comment is a clear indictment of Flip's coaching
But he does have a dilema. Because the Wizards don’t have a prototypical pecking order other than Wall.
Wall needs to be the real leader and determine who’s best to get the ball and when. Its why I think Lewis would be better on the bench start Singleton and then thats one guy that doesn’t need the ball it takes some pressure off and eases chemistry,
Breakdown ISSUE 1 Blatche
Is Blatche a legit 1st option NO does he have the game best suited to quasi fill that role witth the Wizards occasionally. Depends on the match up and what time of the game beause one Blatche gets tired its a wrap.
My solution for coaching Blatche get him the ball in certain instances force him to post closer to the basket and the moment I see the lazy fatigue jumpers and defense pull him. Blatche needs to play lower minutes till he improves his fitness and can play with more energy, Plus express to him he is a very capable passer and play maker when he passes and should use this aspect more to help his team particularly when he gets tired run the little game with Mcgee and get him some easy dunks.
ISSUE 2 Nick Young
Is he a 1st option player NO BUT in the Wizards offense he can get buckes regardless of the match up he can generally get some buckets in any match up as evidenced by his game against wade . His issue is shot selection and inability to play make for anyone the ball sticks in this offense when he gets it too much and eeryone stands and waches to see if the ball is going in.
My solution for this Flip call more set plays away from Young coach takes more control or instruct Wall to. Just go away from him.
ISSUE 3 Javale Mcgee
Is he a 1st option NO But what he’s showing is a much improved offensive game showing an ability to shoot high percentages and maufacture shots in the post with a developing hook shot and solid up and under and a growing ability to get fouled and improving free throw stroke. His problem he ges radom and takes some wild shots that makes everyone cringe; But he usually takes good shots close to the basket and probably need more plays run for him because he only has unfavorable matchups a few times a season and when he gets buckets he plays much better defense. like all bigmen are prone to do,
Issue 4 Wall
attack early and often and regardless of whats happening in the game. He needs to always be attacking he should always be probing but under control. Penetrate to pass take control get guys into position direct guys where they need to be.
My Solution BE THE MAN come up the court and occasionally dribble too much stop giving up the ball to the non passing chuckers that are on your team keep the ball and dribble take several pick and rolls until you find the crease then attack. Because Young Curls doesn’t mean you should give him the ball, because Blatche Posts doesn’t mean you give him the ball but You keep it.
Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Sreve Nash all do this they overdribble alot of times to maintain control and discipline in the offense Wall has to learn this as well.
Be the Man.
by jazzy1 on Dec 22, 2011 3:08 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Crawford not worried - but I am....
I’ve been saying it since last year…. Crawford has to learn to take better shots… Shots that are created within the context of the offense. Those shots, more often than not, will be open shots. The shots he’s taking now are NOT open shots…
He rarely gets the ball in great position for an open look, and has forced up shots if he goes a few possessions without a touch.
But apparently Crawford doesn’t:
When asked about the reason for his poor shooting, Crawford replied, "It’s just missing shots. Simple as that. Not worried about it at all."
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
I'd like to think all of this will improve with time.
Winners like to win. If he’s a winner, and he keeps losing, and losing his minutes, maybe he’ll change.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 22, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
i can't believe for as long as crawford has been in the league
he plays the way he does. I mean, he has 30 games. When is enough enough!
by hambonejackson on Dec 22, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I am worried too
I was hoping he improved during the summer and training camp and the 2 pre-season games showed he is playing the same way.
Hehehe
Yeah a summer of no structured basketball and a short training camp and two exhibition games… He needs to get focused.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
Follow @Dylan___V
by returnofswagger on Dec 24, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
par for the course with Nick is at least hitting his shots
if Craw is going to go out there and try to outshoot Nick, he’s done for
yeah really
he’s gotta use his quickness and slashing ability because his wetness is 1/10th that of nick
by Wizards Khalifa on Dec 23, 2011 4:18 AM EST up reply actions
real talk
there’s a reason he has all that quickness…right? right? If miracles happened Jordan Crawford would develop into a Rip Hamilton style player that just runs off screens all day and gets wet instead of jacking up contested half-courters.
by Wizards Khalifa on Dec 23, 2011 4:44 AM EST up reply actions
It just occured to me that Wall is going to learn tempo from Mack.
Those years in the dance carry some wisdom and….Even though I think he was helpful Heinrick and Wall are VERY different. Mack can manage an offense with tempo, Put Macks head in Wall’s body and you have an incredible weapon. They both have great qualities and if they gel with setting the tempo for all of our “young athletes” they could really be something that brings it from the point for 60 minutes.
Mack's head in Walls body sounds overrated to me
I’m fine with Wall’s head because he is learning plus Wall sees the floor so much better than Mack. I agree that Mack understands tempo more and will probably help in that area but Wall is a much better floor general, naturally, than Mack, freakishly athletic or not.
Follow me on Twitter: @adamvolo
That helps though
He’s clearly a better player than mack, and that in turn means he is more respected by other players than mack which makes him a better leader. As far as knowledge of the game goes though he has a lot to learn from The Shelv
by Wizards Khalifa on Dec 23, 2011 4:47 AM EST up reply actions
Wiz at 17??
Mike you disappoint me….this is the REAL Lob City we’re talking about! Top 5 for suuuuure…haha
by Wizards Khalifa on Dec 23, 2011 4:20 AM EST reply actions
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