Should The Wizards Extend JaVale McGee This Season?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 8:30 AM EST
in Free Agency
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PrintThe problem with paying a player based on what you think they'll do is, by necessity, buying a product sight unseen. You hope there's been enough consistency that you can feel good about your purchase, that you aren't offering a big contract to a player who will up and vanish, while you still have to send the Brinks truck by every pay period. But at the same time, this is a league where Kwame Brown gets paid $7 million on a one year deal. If the Warriors are willing to put out a $43 million offer sheet to Deandre Jordan this year, does anyone think Golden State won't apply the whiteout and write in JaVale McGee next year? In any case, as Craig Stouffer said, the market is set.
There are several factors coming into play that combine to form an interesting question about JaVale McGee's future in Washington.
I believe the Wizards have until January 25th to offer an Andray Blatche-style extend-and-restructure like contract to Javale, but the big question is should they? One variable to consider is Nick Young's restricted free agency. The Bulls are off the market with the Richard Hamilton signing, the Hornets of course have acquired Eric Gordon. Arron Afflalo, Josh Howard, and Gilbert Arenas are still floating around, and it looks increasingly likely the Wizards will hold serve when it comes Nick's RFA. What's likely, and how does this impact a possible extend-and-restructure offer to Javale?
If Nick signs his QO, the Wizards can use our cap space to rework JaVale's contract and lock him up for the future, absorbing part of the hit this year. But why would the Wizards do that, one might object/scream, in the run-up to 2012 free agency? That's actually how this article started actually, once I ran over the list of FA and realized how thin the center market is (as usual). If by some miracle Dwight Howard is available and mentions 'DC would have been perfect' you can roast me over a slow fire. Other than that it's a veritable smorgasboard of meh. Mehmet Okur, Chris Kaman, Nazr Mohammed, guys who aren't exactly going to grow with the team's playoff aspirations will be available. Underwhelming young centers such as Robin Lopez and Roy Hibbert (depending on how you feel about them) will be there. Now Omer Asik I could live with...and Chicago's cap situation being what is, a front-loaded offer sheet would probably do the trick. Asik and McGee will likely end up as prime targets at their position for those that miss out on the Brook Lopez "sweepstakes".
With no clear target for the Wizards in free agency, no electrifying target lighting up the college game and the rash of exorbitant contracts for non-elite centers, one has to wonder if Ernie might not be planning his next gambit if Nick signs his tender instead of an offer sheet or multi-year deal from the Wizards. What would our reaction had been if Ernie had signed JaVale to a five year, $45 million extension when free agency kicked off? Would we be praising him now that Deandre Jordan is making $10 million plus? Is it best to wait for 2012? Or is even the consistent, incremental growth we've been seeing justification for a Marc Gasol offer sheet from a desperate team in the fresh CBA's brave, new world? As before, all it takes is one.
Let's play a little devil's advocate, as well. We've often talked about how JaVale is difficult to utilize as a trade chip due to his rookie contract. Odd as it may sound, locking him up long term could turn him into a limited asset on the market. JaVale is going to get paid one way or the other, and as he's done over the past two seasons, Ernie must get maximum value however it shakes down.
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Absolutely you sign him
They don’t go on trees, as Ferdinand Cliche says, and this means that at almost any amount of money can be unloaded in a trade. Not that I think it’s going to be an issue; JaVale is a knucklehead, not a problem, just like I was at his age. I grew out of it. So will he.
Washington got Ted Leonsis as karmic return for Dan Snyder.
Playing devil's advocate, as usual...
almost any amount of money can be unloaded in a trade
You don’t think the Mavericks would have unloaded Brenden Haywood and his contract, or that the Warriors would have unloaded Biedrins if either had the opportunity? 7 footers don’t grow on trees, but 7 footers on cap-killing contracts aren’t exactly assets.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 8:53 AM EST up reply actions
Fair question
Haywood got 6 years and $55M. Biedrins 6 and $62. I don’t think that JaVale is in line for that kind of money. The Jordan contract is about 115% of what I think would be fair to both JaVale and the team. If he’s not willing to take that sort of money, then I think my opinion would have to change.
Washington got Ted Leonsis as karmic return for Dan Snyder.
Mavericks will find out that Brendan loses 2 rebounds a game outside his contract year
Zero Motivation to play his very best.
I don't like any of the 3 Choices. 4) See if JaVale makes strides toward his massive potential
I hate paying players who haven’t proved they are worth the money.
Chance that they will get fat or lazy because they don’t have to work hard for the next 4-5 years.
Still covered under option 3
If Javale makes those strides, they won’t risk overpaying because if Nene is the standard for a max, Javale will have earned it
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
I was in the don't sign him now column
I’m not crazy about the language of the poll questions though. I just don’t believe he can be signed now for a reasonable contract (let’s call Dray’s extension reasonable). I think Javale wouldn’t sign any extension I’d be willing to offer him at this point.
The problem is, he’s such a crap shoot right now. He could be a perennial all star if the lights ever go on and he “gets it.” I don’t see that as a certainty at this point, and I think you only surrender serious cap spaces to certainties when you’re rebuilding.
Pierre is the smooth operator. @JaValeMcGee34 is the monster you've grown to know on the court.
by Elvin_is_my_Elvis on Dec 16, 2011 8:59 AM EST reply actions
Hmm
Bring on RFA and don’t risk overpaying
I thought that covered the bases…no?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
The language of the poll is intentional.
If we don’t extend and get outbid in FA with no more S&T taking effect in the new CBA next year…that means the draft or FA. Which means FA.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 9:17 AM EST up reply actions
You clearly put more work into writing this than I did reading it
I guess the language I was balking at was for the second question. I’d be happy to extend him now, but not at all costs. I wasn’t sure if “within reason” was part of it. There are many here see Javale as the second coming.
Pierre is the smooth operator. @JaValeMcGee34 is the monster you've grown to know on the court.
by Elvin_is_my_Elvis on Dec 16, 2011 9:24 AM EST up reply actions
Lot more effort than usual because this is a such a sensitive subject
Rather than saying extend or don’t-extend, I wanted to add in some of the consequences of those choices, so they don’t have to be flushed out in the comments. I’m with you, definitely don’t want to see at 12 million/year extension at this point…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure Ted agrees with you there
I think you only surrender serious cap spaces to certainties when you’re rebuilding.
Mike had an excellent point on SB Nation DC
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
The Brass need a vision....
….of the team over the next 5 or so years. Wall is a fixture. After that, they need to put some pegs on the wall. The next most likely candidate is McGee. If not McGee, who? My own view is that McGee/Blatche is not a good pair for the 4/5 because the lack of defensive rebounding. So they have to commit to either McGee or Blatche. Replacing both with studs isn’t very likely. If they go with McGee, then they need to focus on getting a big strong dude at the 4 who can defend and rebound.
After that, they would need shooters at the 2 and 3, one of which can be NY.
How does EG see the puzzle coming together? Why don’t the editors ask him?
That vision is going to be on glaring display over the next few years
And it will revolve around what to do with our young guns, not the kind of question a GM would consider asking straight up without the unquestioned core firmly in place, I think.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
The question of how Ernie is approaching building the team has been asked both by BF
and Mike Lee ect on numerous equations. The issue is that there is a decorum to this process. Grunfeld et al will address the issue of McGee/Blatche maturity development, but he will do so under the same veil of obtuseness that he approaches all his answers. You simply can’t flat out ask Ernie Grunfeld “Hey man, your roster construction sucks, whats the deal?” and then expect Grunfeld to give you an answer not laced with sarcasm or be escorted out of the room.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
I vote the 2nd option
We need to get McGee on a Blatche-like deal. Given that Kwame make 7 million (albeit to be a defensive presence which he is) and that DeAndre Jordan is also making basically max money, either these guys are overpaid from the moment they signed their deals, or Blatche is underpaid because big men are worth big money in the NBA as compared with guards. Though we all clamor that Blatche is overpaid, it is quite possible that he really is underpaid given that “you can’t teach height” in the NBA.
Either way, I don’t think McGee should be getting 10 million a year in any year of a deal under any circumstances given what he can do and has shown so far. Maybe not even 7 million in any year. A two year extension with an option for a third (ok w/team or player) sounds palatable to me. Problem is that McGee knows he can get a max deal elsewhere because after all, he was given votes for defensive MVP by somebody
Big difference
between 4 years/$43 million and 4 years/$58 million…that said, getting Javale to sign a contract at anything less than $9 million is an idea you can banish from the realm of possibility…no $7 in any year of his deal? He’ll make more than that in the first.
But I can understand you feeling that way…who do we replace him with at $7 million per?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
I don't get it Mike....
Normally, your GM’ing instincts are to avoid costly long term contracts to non-core players…. Not sure JaVale McGee has proven he’s a “core” player. Yet you seem to be advocating extending his contract… That’s a big gamble.
By offering JaVale a big (5-year, approaching $50 Million) contract – if he doesn’t progresss, and if Andray Blatche’s yearly “new leaf” proclamations don’t pan out – the Wiz will have effectively blocked out a significant portion of their cap room – JUST when John Wall, Jordan Crawford, Seraphin and Booker all become UFA’s…. Putting the Wiz in the awkward position of picking one or two of that bunch… and letting the others walk. Or worse, they could watch as John Wall does a Paul / Melo / Howard imitation…..
I don’t know if there’s a better solution but if they extend McGee, for the sake of the rebuild, they better hope he becomes a serious core piece….. Otherwise, they’ll be starting over again – as John Wall walks to greener pastures (read: a more competitive team)…
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
sorry BNIE -
We “old” guys sometimes have senior moments…. But I will say, the writing was very “Prada-like”….
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
To be perfectly honest
All roads are gambles at this point, which is really the point of the article. The big question is which gamble to take? The safe and steady path, only signing clear cut core players to those costly, long term contracts is diametrically opposed to the notion that beggars can’t be choosers.
I know that’s likely to ruffle more than a few feathers, but the cold truth is that no one is beating the doors down to play in DC, and in this age of super cities and the market for centers being what it is, the question is who are we going to overpay for? It’s a fairly glib question, but Dwight Howard’s “free agency” makes it feel increasingly relevant…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Again, though what is JaVale's value vis a vis the rest of the league
I think this question is going to revisited several time throughout the year and after we actually get a few games under the belt but I don’t think that anyone truly has an accurate barometer of what a player of McGee’s skills is worth on the open market. I would still put him very much in the second tier of centers, but with DeAndre Jordan getting a huge pay day, it leads me to believe that all centers will eventually be overpaid.
However, I balk at the fact that there are people advocating that we spend the same type of money on JaVale that Marc Gasol, Nene ect earn. To me, McGee still has several years left of development before he deserves the same payday as either of those two players.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Me, too
I balk at the fact that there are people advocating that we spend the same type of money on JaVale that Marc Gasol, Nene ect earn.
This is predicated on a best case scenario. If Javale made massive strides on offense and defense both, it’s no leap of logic to assume he won’t get a max offer sheet, when an offense-less Deandre Jordan gets $10 million plus. That’s ‘get’ and not ‘deserve’…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
But as Rook pointed out
You are then locked in with a player making 40-50 and tying up cap space who isn’t even close to the worth of either Gasol or Nene. It also means that the two players we have committed to for our future are McGee and Blatche. Yikes.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
There’s still an amnesty free to use on Blatche if need be…
Washington got Ted Leonsis as karmic return for Dan Snyder.
i dont think AB is expensive enough to worry about...JVM will be
by les boulez bomber on Dec 16, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think there’ll be an amnesty on new contracts though. Leaves Blatch and Rashard as candidates.
Washington got Ted Leonsis as karmic return for Dan Snyder.
Rashard won't get amnestied next year.
His contract is only guaranteed for $10m.
Yup
Blatche or nobody. He’d have to Sam Hurd pretty amazingly to get amnestied i think.
Washington got Ted Leonsis as karmic return for Dan Snyder.
Following that logic
You seem to be indicating three different scenarios. A) Ten million per over four years, B) Ten million per over five years and C) Twelve point five million over four years. Before I start in, I agree with Ziller’s notion of lighting cash on fire. I’m not advocating extend-and-restructure so much as highlighting it as something in the GM toolbox.
And it’s still predicated on a best-case scenario: A Javale that gets it on offense AND defense will put up a significant statistical increase AND dramatically improve the Wizards defensive ranking. Add in a market that projects what you WILL do and a max offer is practically a given with the reigning insanity. Not saying we would match it, just that a max offer is within the realm of possibility.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
And it is a failure that EG put us in this situation
he really screwed up that 6 pick
by les boulez bomber on Dec 16, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
You mean Vesely?
Who would you have chosen? Like all of us, I was hoping Kanter would somehow fall to 6, or Valacianus would drop a bit. But when they were off the board, Vesely seemed like a reasonable option, given the weakness of the draft.
If Javale makes "massive strides on offense and defense both"...
Why wouldn’t he deserve a max contract? The dude has the physical tools to be a perennial all-star. Even at his current moronic level of play, he has a significant impact on the game when he’s on the floor. If he were to just learn the fundamentals of offense and defense he’d be worth a max contract.
In today’s NBA, and under the new, more restrictive CBA – you don’t pay for " physical tools", or for some fairy tale “anticipated future production”…
The new CBA means that teams must be much more careful giving out big multi-year guaranteed deals. Those that are smart will compete – those that are stupid, won’t….
And in my opinion, giving a huge multi-year maximum contract extension to JaVale McGee, before he’s proven he IS one of the top Centers in the League is just like gambling at Las Vegas…. The only one that wins is the House (in this case, McGee)…..
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
Yeah
much as it kills me to take the risk, I figure only responsible thing to do is wait for RFA
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, is that what I said?
I must be some kind of moron.
Although I could of sworn I started my observation with “If Javale makes massive strides on offense and defense both…”
I’m not saying he should be signed now, before he’s demonstrated said alleged massive strides on offense and defense. I’m saying if he makes massive strides on offense and defense, and someone offers him a max contract, I, personally, would have no problem at all matching it.
Should have been clearer.
Was just responding to the notion that Javale would not “deserve” a max offer if he were to make said improvements.
Darnit, where’s the edit post function?
Yeah - well....
The question is whether the Wizards should give him a max extension NOW - before January 25th….
I don’t see how McGee can show massive strides in Offense and Defense in less than a month of games – and even if he does…. we’ve seen that picture before (cough Andray Blatche cough)…..
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
No, no, no
If we’re going to make a max offer to Javale, we can sure as hell wait until RFA where we can trump anyone. The question is whether or not to offer an extend-and-restructure if there’s a reasonable deal to be had based on the current market, which is probably from $9 million (insanely optimistic) to $11 million (ugh) per year. I would rather face the bidding war next season and let the chips fall where they may, despite the risk.
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 17, 2011 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
Problem being
why would he accept an offer at $10 million per with the gobs of money available in FA 2012?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
This is a tough one.
I’d hate to see JaVale get a ridiculous offer from elsewhere, leave town…and become the superstar we all thought he could be. That would sting.
I would risk extending him right now, as soon as possible.
I understand what Rook said, and that’s an awful scenario to be in, but doesn’t it seem a little too good to be true that JaVale, when playing at a high level (a level I believe he can consistently play at), is the PERFECT center to be matched along side john wall? When JaVale is playing well, there isn’t a single center in the entire NBA – not even Dwight – that I would rather have along side john wall. JaVale is fast, and runs the floor unlike any center I’ve ever seen. When playing within himself, he doesn’t need the ball to score. He just needs to catch lobs from John, and crash the boards. Defensively, he could be our anchor on defense. Again, it’s a matter of him being patient and playing within himself, not getting excited and going to the highlight reels constantly.
He’s like a Tyson Chandler on steroids…the only the we need him to do is “get it”, like we’ve been saying all along. Flip and even his teammates were going out of their way to praise the heck out of JaVale’s training camp on the radio yesterday.
It’s really, really hard to say….and honestly, its probably not the right decision, but I’d take the chance on JaVale asap.
"getting it"
is probably the single greatest challenge any NBA player faces, but especially centers, and as you say, with Javale’s physical gifts the stakes are so much higher…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
it's a gamble
I believe that he’s gonna dominate as soon as he learns playing as a true C. Isn’t it true that he played as a SF all through HS and then starting growing like crazy?
He won’t come cheap though… because
a) some teams are gonna miss out on DH12 and will have a whole lot of cap room for a hole in the middle and
b) just look around the league and ask yourself which C you would rather have and then check what that guy is getting paid. I personally like JVM over Deandre Jordan and his agent would be stupid not to ask for a Deandre Jordan contract.
Even if Javale doesn’t improve drastically this year, we could have him around for a couple of more years to learn his position or you can always trade a 7ft athletic freak.
I like the Bullets
If not Javale ---- Who?
You are gonna be paying someone to be the center.
Who’s gonna be cheaper & better (potentially) ?
Same thing with Nick Young. You want to bring in a broken down vet? You still have to pay them and they might work out or not. With Nick we know what we got. Yeah he’s a knucklehead but he’s our knucklehead and he puts the ball in the hoop.
Looks like the next best option is Roy Hibbert.
Don’t know if he’s cheaper.
Almost Time to Pay the Piper....
I like that we have not played the amnesty card. I think talents like JaVale’s are unique, so we should lock him up soon IMO
all the options assume we're going to want him around
if he doesn’t show dramatic improvement in certain areas, i wouldn’t make a huge commitment to him. if he can’t guard anyone in the low post, he’s not necessarily an asset. deandre jordan has significant limitations, but at least he understands what he does well and plays to his strengths. javale hasn’t figured that out yet. any money put down on mcgee at this point is in the hope that he eventually becomes a good well-rounded center. at this point in time, he’s not. at those rates, he’s way too much of a gamble right now
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 16, 2011 11:34 AM EST reply actions
Have to agree there's just too much risk
in offering a big, guaranteed deal to Javale right now…but how far will that risk depreciate in a year?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
a lot can happen in a year
this should be a big growth year for javale, that is, if he’s going to become a good player.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 16, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
sounds like we should have drafted a center last year instead of a 7 foot bean pole who can dunk but not dribble rebound or shoot
by les boulez bomber on Dec 16, 2011 11:44 AM EST reply actions
/sigh
You are willing to trade that entire draft and this year’s first for Kanter? That’s pretty much the only way drafting a post player was going to happen…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Amazed
at how much support there is for the extend-and-restructure…figured that would be massively unpopular…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 11:52 AM EST reply actions
maybe more a reflection of how bad options are around the league :/
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
For me
It’s a matter of mitigating risk. Assuming that NY decides to play on the QO, we have a ton of cap room. If we got Javale to agree to a front-loaded deal, using up this year’s cap room and then playing on lower yearly salaries, I think that’s the way to go. ESPECIALLY when looking around the league. The only way to get a good big man is to draft him, hold on to him, overpay him for a while and hope beyond hope that he finally gets it. Tyson Chandler had flashes, but remember – this was a guy that OKC decided wasn’t worth the risk of his “injured” big toe just a few years ago. This is the same league where Kwame Brown is getting paid $7M this year. JOEL ANTHONY has a job on a title-contending team (!!!). There always has been and always will be a lack of quality big men. Rolling the dice with Javale, while risky, is an acknowledgement of how poor the other options are.
by jakenbake on Dec 16, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ideally, he gets re-signed after the season, but before free agency starts.
The team needs another full year of evaluating Javale(and Asik), but it’s nice to see the team show some love now.
Looks to me like he's dribbling between his legs.....
He still just doesn’t get it……smh
"Blake Griffin is the American Jan Vesely" - Jan Vesely
by PhenomenalSwag on Dec 16, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
well you can't start new traditions out the blue either
they take several yrs before they’re ingrained
JaVales's RFA status is a win-win propositio.
1. If he blows up and deserves a Max contract then we would have secured a great PG- Center combination. Very rare in the history of the NBA.
2. If he is still immature but improves a little bit we would still have a potential top 12 center making $11-$12 a year.
We do have a very talented young center in Kevin Seraphin who is expected to push JaVale.
by jmpalomo on Dec 16, 2011 12:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Extend NOW don't let him hit restricted free agency.
We’d be fools to allow Javle to hit RFA some team is gonna load a deal for him. There is no telling if any quality center would wanna come here to play. This is NOT a destination city so we’d be force to overpay to bring in some guy we don’t know if we lost Javale.
I know some folks have a negative impression about who they think Javale is as a player but he’s this. A shot blocking, improving offensively rebounding big who is as athletic as they come who’s always in shape and is growing ito his frame and game all at once has shown tangible improvement year to year.
Asik is plodding rough house fouling big who isn’t a starter quality player. Mcgee is much better.
Jordan go 43 mill and Mcgeee is better has more of a feel than he is plus Mcgee is good for some ticket sales and entertainment value.
If Mcgee could be had for 7 mill a year or so on an extension right now we jump and take it. He’ll always be a tradeable asset.
No way DJ gets 10 million a year
And JM signs for less, $8 million per might have been doable before the market was set…maybe
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Dec 16, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Winning will mature the team
As the team progresses toward competing for the playoffs, 8th seed, they will like the taste of playing for something. At that point, they will ball with more passion and less playfulness. Unlike the Arenas teams which had limited talent, this team is talented and has a budding leader in Wall.
Blatche and McGee will start falling in line this season. Extend McGee while you can!
Having an elite PG/C duo doesn't guarantee playoff success
but EVERY squad in the league desires it and spends years in the draft or free agency trying to get it. I would amnesty Lewis’ $10 million salary in a heart beat to keep McGee. I just don’t see him getting fat and lazy like Ike Austin off his first big contract.
Pay the man.
Lock him up for 4-5 years.
If not him then who you gonna call?
How much will Javale get offered by another team when he’s a RFA?
Kwame Brown is getting paid $7M this year.
After reading the article and the comments
3 things became clear to me:
1. The market is set at $10mill per with the Deandre Jordan signing
2. People are not not convinced McGee will ever ‘get it’
3. The C market is thin and any real alternative on the open market will command more than Jordan, especially since we need to convince him to come to D.C.
Conclusion: Based on the above observations I think Ernie would be doing good business if we can lock him up early for 35/3yr deal. Even better if its a frontloaded deal.
McGee might never realize his full potential, but he’s already a very serviceble center and better alternatives aren’t really out there for us to realistically obtain. With John still being on his rookie deal, we have the capspace and by making it a 3 deal, it’s a very tradable contract, although we might get nothing in a trade if he really doesn’t improve.
Who won? Who lost? Who cares?! The NBA is Back! - David Aldridge
What seems to be the officer, problem? - Randy Marsh
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