Restraint in Battle: David Stern's Pyrrhic Victory And The Art Of War
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 15, 2011 6:00 AM EST
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PrintI can't think of union decertification without thinking of a passage from Sun Tzu's iconic text:
Maneuvering with an army is advantageous;
with an undisciplined multitude, most dangerous.
Sun Tzu via China Page
And it's particularly difficult to see how the courts would allow it when the NFL set the legal precedent on the basis of 'if it still walks, talks, and acts like a union...' Yet if this desperate gambit comes to fruition, the only other phrase that comes to mind is 'incredible mess.' But I'm here to view David Stern's leadership through the philosophical lens:
When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.
Do not press a desperate foe too hard.
Sun Tzu via China Page
A desperate man is to be feared. He has no hope and therefore nothing to lose. The NBPA is comprised of millionaires who have plenty to lose, but have been treated as anything but equals by a symbiotic partner who enjoy what is essentially a tactical invincibility which is not strategically insurmountable. This is utter foolishness. You don't step on the people you break bread with, even and especially a nine billion dollar loaf.
This is no war of annihilation, of course. The NBA requires its players, the players require the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed and of course the tax payers would like to see a return on the stadiums they've financed (somewhat beside the point, charmingly). David Stern only needs to break the players' morale to the point where they can lay down without feeling run over, yet the relentless press of the hard liners (which apparently includes Monumental Sports) threatens to turn this into a war of annihilation the extremists only think they can afford.
Winning through hearts is the best way
Winning through castles is the secondary way
Winning through domination is the worst way
Can't properly cite this quote...Google you fail me
There is a quality in mercy, a restraint in battle that is necessary when you need the good will of the conquered. And when one considers the need to reach a mutual accord in a negotiation to work together moving forward, the union-breaking pogrom seems even more illogical. These are short-sighted tactics used for maximum effect, more like theatrical flourish than genuine leadership.
There has been plenty of speculation surrounding David Stern's legacy and whther or not he is handing the torch to Adam Silver, rumors Stern handles the media but Silver handles the negotiations. Whether or not there's a new sheriff in town, the tone of owner-player-relations is going to darken and that means more than you might think. The new generation of superstars coming up in the league (Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, John Wall et al) had little reason to view the league with anything but mild benevolence, increasingly view their tactics with a jaundiced eye. These are the Kobe Bryants, Dwayne Wades and Kevin Garnetts of tomorrow.
It matters. These are a few of the big names who watched a generation of NBA players get taken to the cleaners for reasons we'll be arguing about until someone releases a definitive book on the 2011 NBA lockout. Durant is a max contract player who walks around with a backpack instead of a butler...that's an image so incongruously responsible it's no stretch for me to imagine he has started thinking negotiation strategy for the next deal. These players are humbler, smarter with their money and possibly more community-minded than their predecessors despite their 'limited intellectual capital' (that will never die). If they promote changes to the NBPA that make it more survivable in the face of adversity, the tactical superiority the league enjoyed and wielded like chunk of pig iron will have vanished.
I use the word 'adversity' on purpose...it has a way of shaping disparate individuals into meaningful social groups and the league may not even be finished vilifying itself, further polarizing their image. The players came into these negotiations prepared to make concessions, David Stern and Adam Silver grabbed them by the short hairs and started walking backwards, smiling and doubletalking to the media the whole way. You think world-class competitors are going to forget that?
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Sun Tzu??
You really read Sun Tzu? I guess so if you know this is his iconic text. My reading never gets much past the sports pages. Anyway, I’m impressed.
Having a baby
my days of light reading are mostly over, got five minutes into The Unfettered Mind and screaming baby was all over me for not carrying him around making robot noises…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 15, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
The problem I see is the difference between reality and perception
Although I’m hoping at some point the two views get closer together, the general perception of this lockout is still so hopelessly slanted against the players it’s almost sad. Ziller has done a great job of poking holes in the owners’ argument, but there’s been so little effort by “mainstream media” to deconstruct the house of lies that Stern and the owners put forth that I’m beginning to wonder if the tide will ever turn. The reality is:
The players came into these negotiations prepared to make concessions, David Stern and Adam Silver grabbed them by the short hairs and started walking backwards, smiling and doubletalking to the media the whole way.
David Stern is a media-savvy son of a bitch. A greedy little manipulative troll. And I’ve completely had it with him after this mess. He calls this a “tragedy” – a scenario that his employers have caused and continued (and let’s not even go the whole “what is a tragedy” route, especially in light of what’s happening in Happy Valley, idiot). Even so, the players probably are causing themselves irrevocable financial harm. But more and more, as much as I want to see basketball, I’ve sided with the players and just want to see the owners get a piece of their own pie.
The last piece of all of this, though, is how little most people care about this stoppage. I was reading Wise’s column this morning and he said that less than 8% of people over the age of 30 said they miss professional basketball. That is a pathetic number. But that’s the reality the NBA is working with. And neither side really seems to get that.
Yeah
public indifference has made Stern’s job so much easier :/
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 15, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
76% don't care the first month of the season is lost.
Neither side seems to grasp how easily people will walk away from the league and not come back.
What does decertification do for the players?
That’s the only relevant question if you’re a player imo.
What scenario’s are now possible, which are most likely to happen and what do they mean for the lockout and the players situation in particular?
I haven’t seen much strategy from the NBPA thus far and other than ‘really showing the owners who’s though’ I don’t hear an actual strategy now either.
With a poorly chosen laywer who presented (and won for) the NFL owners (!!?) leading the hurdle, a bad presedent from both the prior lockout in ‘98 and more recently from the NFL labor woes and no succesfull case from the past, it seems to me the players pride made them call Stern’s Bluf. Except, the hand they have is most likely beat. If you’re beat, what you put in the pot doesn’t matter no more, just fold. Unfortunately the players just coudn’t lay it down beceause they pokered with ego instead of ratio. Chances are that they picked the wrong hand to tilt.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
That's the only tactically relevant question, yeah...
You’ve hit most of the major surface concerns with respect to the lockout, and we’ll just have to see if there’s any teeth to this thing :/
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 15, 2011 8:51 AM EST up reply actions
Disclaiming brings uncertainty and lack of control into the owners' world.
The players might wind up with a worse deal in the courts but then again they might not. If I’m an owner, the thought of treble damages being awarded in an anti-trust suit might make me take notice, ESPECIALLY, if I know there might have been some underhanded stuff going on.
As for strategy, I don’t think Hunter has to spell it out for us….the players’ lawyers should just do their talking in court if it gets that far. Who’s the poorly chosen lawyer you’re referring to? Boies?
Yes Boies. He argued for the NFL owners against the decertification file from the NFL players union. And he won. Now he argues for the players’ side which make him look very credible.
The players might wind up with a worse deal in the courts but then again they might not.
True, but is the last deal really worth gambeling your very livelihood for? Or was it mainly an emotional, pride-driven descission?
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Disclaiming also gives other players an opportunity to bring the Union back without the just broken up Executive Committee
It’s not all hunky dory for the players after this move.
It leaves them open for a revolt.
Also
When you Google “Winning through hearts is the best way” the only result is this column. You sure that wasn’t just something you picked up in karate class?
It's an obscure quote
from a copyrighted instruction manual with no reference…it may have been a guy named Tung Tsung Nee…but I never could find out one way or the other, stuck in my head, though
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 15, 2011 8:54 AM EST up reply actions
Guess this was prior to the meeting yesterday....
Reporter: Do you think it should come down to you guys voting on whether you wanna play or not?
John Wall: I think that’s what they should do
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 8:38 AM EST up reply actions
Law 43 of the Arts of Power
“Work on the hearts and minds of others.”
Law 3.Conceal your intentions
Either Billy Hunter is brilliant or he doesn’t know what he’s doing haha
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 8:33 AM EST up reply actions
Stern's failure
Stern has essentially required that the most vain, cocky, self important group in the world not only accept defeat, but accept public humiliation.
It seems to me that he wanted the victory more than the money.
Go out sipping Cristal on the deck of the Titanic
smiling into the cameras, saying ’that’s how I roll’
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 15, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Reading some of the articles on this, it seems Stern’s key mistake was sending the offer to every member of the bargaining unit, and thereby circumventing Billy Hunter and the other representatives. That was too much of an affront to the reps’ egos to go unchallenged. So, out of excess emotion, they refused to submit the plan to the bargaining unit for a vote. That was the union’s error: they let their emotions get the better of them in the heat of a negotiation. And a key violation of good negotiation practices, making them look amateurish, imo. Similarly, Stern wanting to have the biggest balls in the room ended up screwing himself as a result of the display.
To quote Ren Hoek from “Ren and Stimpy” fame: “Eeeeeeeediots!”
And no one thinks that David Stern deserves derision?
You call his actions a “mistake”… yet you deride the Union’s actions as borne out of “excess emotion”, That they “let their emotions get the better of them”… and a “Key Violation” of good negotiation practices?
Yet Stern gets a pass ? Why is Stern’s action of bypassing the legal negotiating body for the players considered only a “mistake”… Why wouldn’t that be considered a “key violation” of good negotiation practices..? Further, why is no one screaming UNFAIR when Stern sent the offer to the individual players?
Don’t you suppose that if Fisher and Hunter started negotiating directly with Jerry Buss and Micky Arison – that Stern wouldn’t be screaming bloody expletives all over ESPN?
Stern is getting away with murder here – yet the players and their Union are taking the heat for it….
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
by Rook6980 on Nov 15, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Absolutely, I agree. The union has some facts to support an unfair labor practice, Stern’s direct bargaining with the members one of the best arguments. Both sides are Stimpys.
by Tbonebullets on Nov 15, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
So, out of excess emotion, they refused to submit the plan to the bargaining unit for a vote.
If they was my reps and they would have scrambled away MY money because of this I’d be beyond furious.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
Have there been any players besides Big Baby
that have said screw it, let’s play ball?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 15, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
heard some, can't remember who exactly
But you’re right, not an overwhelming number so I guess they agree with the sentiment. Therefore, if they might endup in a worse place than ever, they can’t complain in hindsight imo.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
That was going to be my response too
All this “let the players vote” noise seems to ignore that there probably wasn’t a majority who would have voted yes anyway.
Not necessarily what Dutch is saying, of course, just a more general point.
This whole mess will ultimately tarnish Stern's legacy
and that is what bothers him the most. Think about the crux of this entire mess: Hardline owners who leveraged themselves to buy franchises need handouts from successful teams because Stern never bothered to entertain revenue sharing BEFORE asking for player give backs.
If these owners ran their primary businesses like they ran their teams, there wouldn’t be an NBA.
by el freako on Nov 15, 2011 10:53 AM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Maybe that's what the players are counting on
The Almighty Stern is about go out looking like an asshole, a cancelled season and massive labor unrest becoming as much a part of his legacy as whatever credit he takes for the good times. Stern wants the deal done to his very core and has tried to simply make the players do what he wants…it didnt work. Now he is going to have to try and push owners like Ted, but what leverage does he actually have there? A cancelled season will go down as a colossal failure on Stern’s part, let’s see what he can do to avoid it.
chances of closing the deal
It would seem to be pretty simple for Stern to be the one to lose face now and concede on the system issues…and he would still have a huge victory on BRI.
What we don’t know is how close the owners’ votes (really) are on Stern’s side. If he’s been telling the truth on how close it is, then it is possible that he really could not, and cannot, agree with the Union on all of the system issues. Personally, I doubt that is the case — I believe Stern could use his powers of persuasion, and good counsel, with the owners if he really wanted to force them to agree to a deal. But I’m just pointing out that there may have been a real impasse going on here, which means a deal wasn’t going to happen anyway.
by Tbonebullets on Nov 15, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think Ted was promised something that Stern cant deliver
Not just Ted, but all these hardline owners. Like you said, it was easier for Stern to kick the can down the road than it would have been to address revenue sharing early on. He’s so used to lording over the players (dress codes, fines, the new tech rules. etc) on some level he must have believed that at the end of the day he controlled them. Oops.
by DCrez on Nov 15, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Why can't they deliver?
Ted lost an entire NHL season to get the system changes and hard cap he wanted. The NBA Owners can just do the same thing.
It’s happening right now.
It sucks but their plan is working.
I agree
conceding on system issues now will only make things worse between owners and players in the future, as well as between owners.
Since MSG CEO JIm Dolan wants the Knicks playing now, do you think he wants no cap for the Rangers too?
the exact opposite is true also
How come the owner’s conceding makes things worse but player concessions dont? If, big if, the players ended up agreeing to a hard cap etc you can bet there will be an opt out after 5 or 7 years….many of the guys in the league now will still be around and want to move back towards the old system right? It works both ways doesnt it?
by DCrez on Nov 15, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
it does work both ways.
given the current climate for at least some teams, if the owners concede on the issues, thinks look a lot worse for them. Obviously contraction is a possible option, but I’d rather not see any team get closed down.
Did the NHL union decertify?
the courts are (ostensibly) not under the owner’s control. If the day comes that teams can sign whomever they want for whatever they want…Ted loses in a massive way. Maybe John Wall is gone, teams that hesitate are left with scraps, etc etc. The owners wont let that happen
Well, if the players want to Decertify now it can cost 2 Seasons.
Since it will take about a year and a half (at the minimum) for all the suing and appeals, no player will get paid for 2 years.
Then they are too old and slow and then they’ll get cut.
They sued, lost and now work at Kmart or need a handout at the signal light.
by jmpalomo on Nov 15, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
don't jnow how much this plays into everything
But the NHL has considerably more Canadian teams while the nba has only one team. Maybe the raptors have some business unit in America?
by thewiz06 on Nov 15, 2011 2:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It was pretty foolish of David Stern to demonize the players
in yesterday’s ESPN interview. These are the very same players that he’ll be asking the paying public to fork over their hard-earned dollars to come and watch in a few weeks (assuming we have a season). Dumb strategy, Stern. Dumb.
Stern also said that it was unspeakable for the players to disclaim at this late stage of negotiations and that it would have been okay if they had done it earlier. WTF? Didn’t the NBA file a lawsuit several months back seeking to prevent the union from decertifying or disclaiming the union?? Dude is just slimy.
by Bassanova on Nov 15, 2011 1:08 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
he is taunting them.
and I am sure that the commissioner doesn’t think we will have a season at this point.
by thewiz06 on Nov 15, 2011 2:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't really understand the need to lay "blame" on any one individual
or group. But surely if you feel the need, there are two obvious equally “guilty” targets: the hardliners in both the owners’ and players’ camps.
The negotiators on both sides (Stern/Silver, Hunter/Fisher) made mistakes in negotiation and errors in judgment, sure, but ultimately they were pushed into a corner by factions that seemingly refused to yield on their demands. Too reminiscent of the political situation for comfort . . .
I think we will now see
if the owners were actually losing all the money they said they were. If they used funny math to come up with their loss figures, the players will have a solid case to say that they were not negotiating in good faith (the owner’s entire premise was that they had to change things to make up for their losses). If that is the case, the owners may make some major concessions to work out a deal and not let it get to the courts.
If they were not lying, we may not see basketball for two years. The players seem to be acting emotionally and irrationally. This behavior, if they find that the owners were telling the truth, will back them into a corner that they will not be able to get out of and they will be at the mercy of the courts.
I just cant see it getting to that
Are the owners really going to open their entire books? Have opposition lawyers pour over every claimed expense in an effort to paint them as Frank McCourts? And you KNOW there are at least a couple whose books are shady as hell.
Are the players really going to lose 2 full years of salary with no guarantee whatsoever they get a better deal later? Risk their financial lives over to what extent they get millions?
The decert move marches both sides closer to oblivion, and the closer they get there, the more likely a deal will be struck.
That's my point
I think the owners called the players’ bluff and now they are sweating (sp? it just doesn’t look right) Although I think the players look like emotional children in this process, thier short-sightedness may actually pay off.
I also think that the Etan Thomases and Mo Evans of the union are a truer representation of the players than the stars who show up and cause trouble. Kobe is going to get paid a LOT of money to play ball somewhere, lockout or not. It might not be NBA money, but he, and KG and the rest of the “stars” are going to get thier money. They can afford to go without the NBA. Etan, Mo and the other 85% of the league need the NBA to assure a paycheck (look at JJ Hickson)
they made a reactionary, shortsighted, rash decision
I did not get the impression that the decert was part of a bigger strategy. I know Hunter said that he held that card as a last resort, but that isn’t a card you hold as a last resort. That is like a football team playing a spread offense designed to score quickly but holding a ball possession between the tackles running attack as a last resort. By the time you get to the last resort, that tactic is no longer effective.
If I am wrong about that, I will stand corrected, but children make decisions without considering the consequences. That is what looked liked happened to me.
I think it's a way of bringing in new negotiators and a greater sense of urgency.
While the litigation is being pursued the lawyers will concurrently be trying to negotiate a settlement. Things went as far as they could between Stern/Silver and Hunter/Fisher, now there will be a larger team on each side trying to reach a solution
Are the owners really going to open their entire books? Have opposition lawyers pour over every claimed expense
We’ve given these players those numbers," Stern told Mike & Mike. "We’ve given them our certified annual reports of all of our teams. We’ve given them the combined summaries. We’ve made available the income tax returns
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
or i should say, as i understand it based on Coon or one of those guys
the information provided is not so detailed as to expose owners writing off extravagant lifestyles on the team.
What more do you need?!
The certified annual reports of all of the teams, the combined summaries for the league as a whole and additionally the income tax return for the owners private finances…. What more do you need?!
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
some players want the owners to show their books, etc, and they’re acting like the girl who’s accusing their boyfriend of cheating on them. Even if this boyfriend was completely faithful, just the stigma alone makes like look like a cheater and he almost might as well cheat.
by thewiz06 on Nov 15, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
so maybe the owners might as well have vacations and write it off against the team now
not like the players don’t do this too
there have been several links posted repeatedly
about the extent to which Stern says the books are open vs the extent to which they actually are. Do you think all these billionaires actually turned over their detailed income returns to the players Union? Derek Fisher demands to see Paul Allen’s personal expenses? I seriously doubt that, and I am not saying Allen should have had to….I’m saying litigation requires all of that info to go under the microscope
I think there will always be a natural distrust from the players to the owners about the numbers
No matter what they’ll do. Additionally legitimate accountancy always has and will have the smell of dishonesty.
For example, say I run my own little business and I bought a laptop for for $2100,- In 3 yrs I’m planning to buy a new one. The laptop is on my balancesheet as an asset. It represents a certain value and I learned in highschool that I should decrease in value on the balance by $700,- as each of those 3 yrs passes. The $700,- in amortization should be put in my annual operational expenses (not sure if that’s the english word for it).
Did I really spend the $700 bucks in each of those 3 yrs? No. I spend $2100,- in the first one and zero in yrs 2 and 3 but I can’t have the value on my balance sheet depreciate without accounting for the loss in value on in my operational costs.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Given how bad these negotiations and now soon to be lawsuits are going
I just wonder how bad the next CBA negotiations will be when John Wall and Harrison Barnes (regardless of whether he goes pro in 2012 or 2014) are in their primes….
I just laid out the other scenario because it is possible
I agree with you that the books are more than likely shady
Just getting started
How many teams turn a profit on November and December games? You can bet it’s a small minority. The majority of the owners have been only too happy to miss the first two months or so. Let’s see if they’re as willing to lose games as the NFL season winds down, and fans start looking for other sports to point their eyes and dollars at. There’s a reason why so many analysts thought that games wouldn’t start until February. Remember the last lockout? When did games start up again? February.
I'm more angry at the owners
The players came in giving back which to me was their 1st flawed tactic because once Stern got them on the run he wanted to smash their heads in because the hard line owners saw them bending over and said we’ve got them now lets go for the whole thing
Hunter should be fired asap. For him to start the negotiations so weak caused alot of the angst he had to know that Stern was gonna play it very hard its been building for 2 years and all Hunter has appeared to have done is be reactionary not aggressive.
But now Stern had the players on the ropes looking for a place to fall down and basically threw spikes on the floor for them to fall on. So the Players have decided that we’re gonna cave but Stern is gonna feel some pain before we go.
I gotta believe the owners figured half a season would be lost but not many even some of the hard liners are prepared to lose the full season so the players I think have some leverage now with this court move threat.
where do they go now Stern has said 47 , rollbacks and hardcap are where we’re headed thats obviously a no go for the Union what happens now Stern will look foolish if he doesn’t press the worse deal because like a fool he has publically boasted it would happen so who blinks 1st.
Hunter and Fisher can’t take the worse deal now their players will lambaste them.
so I think we’re at that point where everyone is looking around saying how the hell did we get here and how do we get back without looking like a total ass.
by jazzy1 on Nov 15, 2011 3:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
We'll see if the owners were honest about their urgency to change the basic economics of the league (bri) ánd
.
if they really mean it when they say that they need more competative balance (system chances).
We’ll also see if the players are really as united as they miss more and more actual paychecks (today was going to be their first one) and if they really want to risk their current garuanteed contracts to fight a near impossible fight that might or might not lead to a better deal.
Both parties fear losing atleast 1 and possibly 2 full seasons due legal issues, so both parties really need to reflect internally and determin which issues are a ‘need to have’ and which are ‘nice to have’.
I think this process will take a little while because it means internal fights between factions (on both sides) need to be fought first.
Stern, Hunter and Fisher shouldn’t bother about their public image. It’s to late for that now. It’s sad that it had to come to this but there’s no where to go anymore. Both parties find themselves with their backs against the wall now and are forced to show their true collors.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
well said
I just don’t know what gives at this point. No way in hell the players miss 2 seasons thats not happening but this season could happen in a situation where the players make a miscalculation and Stern pulls the chair and says screw it. no season the players are gonna be hurting without those checks bad. they are commited to a 50 game schedule but will panic if the season is threatened to be lost.
I predict there will be rumblings from Sterm and his crew that they are pulling the plug on the season to see how the Players react.
The players ultimately have less staying power indeed
But not all the owners are willing to use their staying power either as they simply lose to much money…
Like others said, it’s quite possible that the league and players will simultaniously fight each other in court ánd work on a deal behind the scenes as well. Losing 1 season is the most likely scenario imo at this point since the internal fights for both parties may take till january or so to complete.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Nov 15, 2011 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
i think the real deal making will be after the season is cancelled.
until then, both sides thought they’d be here anyway and are staying pat mostly. The players then take a much worse deal.
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