Washington Wizards 2011-12 Season Preview (You Know, In Case It Happens)
by M. Katz on Oct 12, 2011 8:01 AM EDT
in Team Analysis
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PrintThe NBA season could happen. It might not happen. At any rate, the NBA Blogger Previews are happening and this is the Wizards season preview. Let's talk a lot about John Wall and other stuff, OK?
Since I’m new(-ish) around here, an introduction: My name is Michael Katz (follow me!), and – among other things -- I write about the Wizards on SB Nation D.C. (bookmark our coverage, will you?). I’m not a Washington fan, but I did watch 60-some Wizards games last season, which is probably more than many fans could put up with. I’ve learned your language and your customs so please accept me as one of your own.
Now, where were we? Oh, the preview …
Team Name: Washington Wizards
Last Year’s Record: 23-59
Key Free Agents: Josh Howard, Nick Young (RFA), Yi Jianlian
Team Needs: Time, Talent Surrounding John Wall, 3PT Shooting, Positive Reinforcement
1. What are your team's biggest needs this offseason?
Let’s ignore for a second that, to be a serious contender, what the Wizards need most is more talent. Washington is not going to pull John Wall’s No. 2 out of a hat between now and the start of this (theoretical) season. So let’s just look at areas where improvement is needed.
I'll offer this thought: The Wizards need to grow up. I’m reminded of a conversation I had in February with Tyson Chandler, after the Mavericks center went for a then-season-high 23 points and 13 rebounds opposite JaVale McGee. He said he was able to take advantage of McGee because he knew the Washington’s young center was eager to block every shot. One fake and Chandler went around him. I asked how you get passed that urge, and Chandler said it’s just something that comes with age, experience. I have a feeling it won’t be hard to tell if the Wizards are choosing to grow up this season.
As for the actual basketball, there’s a few areas that stand out. Last season, Washington had the second lowest defensive rebounding rate in the league. This is an effort stat, and it can be fixed by committing to the glass. Up front are McGee, Andray Blatche, Trevor Booker and rookie Chris Singleton. These guys are capable rebounders. The Wizards also shot poorly from three last season – their 33.2 percent mark was 28th in the league. Rashard Lewis could help here if he can bounce back from the 35.7 percent he shot last season, the worst he has shot since ‘02-03.
Pray to whatever God you claim that John Wall’s jump shot continues to improve.
2. What are the team’s biggest strengths & weaknesses? (so far)
Strength: Washington’s biggest strength is John Wall. The Wizards have the most coveted asset for a rebuilding team: a franchise cornerstone. The Wizards also ditched the old uniforms in favor of retro-inspired embrace-the-past duds. "Look good, play good." - Deion Sanders, Football Player.
Weakness: The road. Last season the Wizards could not win on the road. I mean this almost literally. Washington won three games on the road, but not before losing their first 25 games away from the Verizon Center, threatening the NBA Record set by the ‘92-93 Mavericks, who started 0-29. Re-read the section on the Wizards’ biggest needs. Time to grow up.
3. If there is no season in 2011-12, how is your team set up for 2012?
Well, that’s one season the Wizards don’t have to pay 20+ million to Rashard Lewis, so there’s that. But really, a missed season would not be a great result for Washington.
This is a young team, a team that needs time to build. Not just time to coalesce on the court, but time to be with their coaching staff, time to learn. They need productive time, time that is structured. Answer this question for yourself: Where would you hope to see JaVale McGee for the next 12 months – in the company of Flip Saunders or running up and down the court for the Drew League’s pro-am team?
This should be the year Wall makes voters and coaches feel bad about deciding to keep him off the East All-Star squad. Wall needs to take the leap for the franchise to take the leap. The Wizards should be targeting 2012-13 as realistic opportunity to push for a spot in the East’s top eight. Without 2011-12, is that still so realistic?
4. If you could make one change the NBA's new CBA, what would it be?
I’ve been following Nate Jones on Twitter long enough to reflexively answer, "Revenue sharing!" But I’m not expert. Instead of wasting my words and your time, let me recommend Tom Ziller, SB Nation’s lead NBA writer, for CBA enthusiasts.
5. Which Wizard is most knowledgeable about hotel room service dining?
I’m glad I asked. Of course, it’s Andray Blatche. If you’re so inclined, please enjoy "Andray Blatche Presents: A Gentleman’s Guide to Room Service." Lots of helpful tips in there, you guys.
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Rebounding. Grow-up. 3-Point Shooting.
Wow, that was innovative. Sorry, just salty because I’m arriving at the conclusion that the season likely isn’t happening.
Bleh.
by Perm on Oct 12, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Welcome!
I don’t want to be dick, but you said you liked feedback…
I have to agree with Perm in that the preview is nice for fans from other teams or casual readers who don’t follow the Wizards.
The preview is not deep/detailed enough since people here are hardcore fans. A thorough breakdown by position, considering the past season and projecting development, viewing all Ernies actions in the light of Teds plan and a look at what could be done/expected down the road would be what I personally would like to see in a preview like this.
Again, I don’t want to insult you, just my view. Looking forward to future posts from you.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 13, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Strength: Fastest 5 players on the floor
Wall, Crawford, Booker, Vesely and McGee
Your going to have some gassed teams trying to keep up with Wall and company running the floor.
And Singleton ran the 3/4 court sprint
Faster than Wall or Booker at the combine.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
by returnofswagger on Oct 12, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair points, Both
@jmpalomo — Really looking forward to seeing the Wizards in transition, especially with a healthy Wall.
@Perm — I’m bumming about the season, too. More time for the Nick and JaVale show though …
Keep telling me where I’m wrong or dumb or whatever, guys. Appreciate the feedback.
A Weakness from the Coaching Aspect
Not having players earn their minutes. Example: Catering to Andray Blatche when he was playing 18’ from the basket and shooting long range jump shots or going around for reverse layups instead of taking it straight to the hole.
Flips response: We keep telling him to play down low.
Flips response 2: He keeps Andray in and does not replace him with hungrier players like Booker or Seraphin or just to disciplilne a player for not listening.
(how about when Blatche refused to go in a game 2 years ago and Flip let him start the next game- wow! Every high school and Rec league coach was seen scratching their heads).
Go back and watch the end of the 3rd quarter through the 4th quarter when Booker and Seraphin dominated the Lakers front court in LA. You would think that their minutes would go up after that. Not really. That would take away from the Veterans Blatche and McGee.
Welcome
I’d like you to give some thought to a valid measure of McGee’s improvement.
As background, McGee can do a 18/10/5 (blocks) and get vilified the next day in the press for dribbling the length of the court or some other bonehead play.
Last year, I though he had to get the PER of player’s playing against him to drop by 5% points or more, which it did.
I think he’ll have more of an offensive game this year, but that’s not crucial. Is there a stat for McGee’s defensive rebounding percentage?
22% last season after 18% the previous year.
Blatche was at 18%, Booker 17%, and Seraphin an atrocious 13%. All of them need to improve
Where did you get those stats? And....
…what would be a fair benchmark for this coming season’s performance? For example, what are the comparable numbers for Boozer and Noah?
Well, other combos include:
Duncan/McDyess – 26.8, 22,3
Cousins – 24.4 (I’m not sure who their PF is) ; Dalembert is at 26.9
Randlolp/Gasol – 26.1, 19.4
Horford/Smith – both 23.7
Garnett/Perkins (before the trade) – 28.7, 27.5
It would seem a good boogie for McGee next season would be 25. That’s what the Wiz need him to focus on, so if he hits it, the complaints from the peanut gallery should fall on deaf ears.
Nevertheless, even if he hits 25%, getting 18.7% from the PF will leave them as a weak rebounding team. Maybe EG is hoping to get lots of rebounds from the 3 (Vesely and Lewis).
Vesley had one of the lowest reb rates in Europe
and Rashard has a career 14% DRR. Let’s hope Seraphin comes back looking like a different player, he was just awful on the glass last season and we can’t have that again. He sure looks like a different guy right now, so that’s a positive
Man…. One name keeps singing in the back of my head when I read this…
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 12, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Brown
Brown, Kwame…?
Or is it that guy from the Ottoman Empire area?
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
by returnofswagger on Oct 12, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Bingo ;-)
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 12, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm skeptical of solo match-up defensive stats
especially for bigs. So much of being a good defensive team is rotating well, and you can actually improve your one-on-one stats by screwing up the rotations and clinging to your man.
I’m not an expert on these things, but from what I was last year McGee was not great on help defense…
by obeast on Oct 12, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I see better perimeter defense
and maybe an improving Seraphin with help with interior defense, Otherwise McGee and Blatche are going to have to improve. Maybe N’Diaye will prove a quality backup defensive 5 as some people believe he will be. I think defense needs to be their mantra. They don’t lack for
players who want to score.
much of that falls on Flip imo
He doesnt seem to hold anyone accountable defensively aside from Nick and Javale.
He got on Blatche the season before
He is not going to get on Wall and Lewis does need to hear it. He also threatened to send Booker to the d-league. He probably gets on them a lot more during practices. He has been known to walk out of those practices. He emphasizes team defense and that takes awhile. Players have to trust each other and know where each other are and that comes from playing together.
by hambonejackson on Oct 12, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If Flip does not get on Wall then it's time to retire
Who will get on him then? His momma?
(By the way, I loved seeing his family at George Mason when they did that midnight practice)
Wall is so competitve
I don’t think he needs motivation. Just point out his mistakes.
by hambonejackson on Oct 12, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Sam
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 12, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Wall is 1 player
not the team. You get on players if they are not giving it their all. I don’t think Wall is a player who never gives anything less than his all and all the time. The guy is hyper competitive. Show him what he is doing right and show him what he is doing wrong and he gets it.
by hambonejackson on Oct 12, 2011 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Who farted? AB?
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 12, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
pretty funny pics
leave it to Nick to not care they are on tv
http://www.truthaboutit.net/2008/11/andray-blatche-stinks-literally.html
Dominic Mcguire looks
Either pissed at whoever did it, or just looks guilty. I can’t tell which.
I'm a Wizards fan. We've been trying to tell you about Lebron for years. Hated the man before it was cool.
by returnofswagger on Oct 12, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Best part of the article
“Did you know andray blatche is shooting 17.6% on the road?”
Not much has changed since 2008 apparently
by XAGMNINETY on Oct 12, 2011 7:44 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Ive got a question which you guysmight know the answer too
If there is no 2011-‘12 season (lets hope not btw) what happens to players contracts. Are they postponed and then continued in the 2012-2013 season (so say a guy is on a two year contract that is supposed to be 2011-’12 and 2012-‘13, if 2011-’12 is locked out, the players contract changes to 2012-‘13 and 2013-’14)
I havent been able to find anything conclusive as to what happens to the current nba contract terms.
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
The contracts are not postponed
I’ve read multiple times that McGee for example (who has 1 more yr on his rookie deal left) would be an restricted free agent in the summer of 2012, with or without a 2011-2012 season.
If the whole season is lost, the players lose an entire yr’s worth of salary which they’ll never get back
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 13, 2011 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions
It all depends on the new CBA. All terms of everyone's contracts can be changed.
The player does not have a contract with a team. He has a contract with the Union who has a contract with the NBA.
That is why if the Union decertifies then the NBA may be able to void the contract with the Union which will then void all player contracts.
decertification would make any kind of salary cap or contract rules illegal
every team could spend as much as they liked with any type of compensation they could come up with. Ownership interest in the team, a mansion in Milan, here’s a private jet….total free for all, last thing most of the owners want. Many are saying Hunter should have used the threat of decert months ago, now it’s too late
Owners make the rules if there is decertification
The NFL in 2010 went back to the 2009 rules.
The NBA Owners can institue a hard cap. Max and Minimum salaries.
There is no Union if players decertify.
There would be no Union. So no contracts. If a players wants to play then they have to play by the Owners rules.
Nope.
The Union is what creates the anti-trust exemption for the league. Without that, any kind of salary cap becomes illegal. Each team is a separate business, they cannot collude on anything without breaking the law.
But even more importantly, even if they could, there is no way all 30 of them would agree to limitations while players like DHoward, Wade, Lebron etc could be signed at any time by the highest bidder.
Without a union.... DCrez is right...
There would be no spending limits on teams or for individual players (no cap, no maximum or minimum salaries)…
There would also be no limit to the number of years for a contract… bonus payments (all but UNHEARD OF under the old CBA), Incentives, non-cash type payments (homes, automobiles, part ownership in companies, etc…). would ALL be in play.
Even things like the restriction on the number of players on a roster – and minimum age requirements could be challenged in Court.
Revenue sharing would be against the law… ie: giving money from one team to another competing team – without giving the exact same amount to ALL other competing teams would become illegal. (ie: the NBA is an “association” of separate legal entities… in other words – individual Companies).
Some players would get exorbitant salaries – $40 Million, $50 Million, perhaps $60 Million per year (Dwight Howard, LeBron James, D-Wade, Kobe, etc…) – There may be another class of player that could earn $20-$30 Million a year (Blake Griffin, Amare, etc…) – but then most players would be scrounging for scraps after that, with the “other” (non Super Star) player salaries probably less than $1 Million…
A “dream” scenario for the Lakers and the Knicks…. who would probably split the next 10 NBA Championships…. and it would be fitting that Owners like Robert Sarver (you know, the same Owners that want to screw the players out of everything and get a sweetheart deal for themselves) would lose their teams to bankruptcy…
I used to have super powers until my psychiatrist took them away.
by Rook6980 on Oct 13, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Basically it would be like the MLB
I would stop watching.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 13, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I will go for that. Pay Kobe $30million like he's worth. Lebron $40million
Good. Maybe 10 bottom feeding, small market teams (don’t worry DC is too big) will go bankrupt and disperse.
The NBA would have alot better ball with only 20 teams.
I am all for paying the Superstars real superstar money like they deserve. I am totally against paying the 10th man on the roster millions of dollars. If you want it then work hard to get it and work hard to keep it. If you ain’t good enough. See ya! This would also eliminate players who only do their best in the last year of their contract.
If you don't want to pay mediocre talent millions, then
you agree that a system chance is needed.
With max and rookie deals being capped and a set % of BRI that has to be paid out, the systems forces money to go to mediocre talent you know.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
Reply fail to jmpalomo
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 13, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
how do you figure a set % must be paid out?
The escrow is in case salaries surpass 57% of BRI in which case the league keeps the money. If salaries dont exceed 57%, the players get their full contract salary. So what are you saying happens if salaries come in at 53%? I’m unaware of how that works
The owners have to write an extra check to get to the 57%
This yr they had to pay $26 million extra.
People think that the owners are losing money because they sign stupid contracts but that is not true. If they would sign efficient contracts only, they wont reach the garuanteed BRI split and are forced to pay out the difference anyway and save precisely $0.00.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 13, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
where does that $26mill go?
does every player in the league get a bonus check on top of their regular salary?
I suppose so, not totally sure.
Ken Berger article on this here: http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/30788557
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 13, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the check went to the NBPA
Not sure how they decide to use it.
only if you look at all the owners as one entity rather than seperate businesses
first of all this has only happened once, ever. And it happened because so many teams geared up to sign Lebron but only one of them did, so everyone else had CAP space left. Compounded by all 3 signing in with one team for less money too.
But aside from that, it came down to roughly $867,000 per team…that’s nothing. Teams that sign good contracts are still in good position, and teams with lousy contracts arent exactly ruined by less than $1mill more they had to spend.
I never said the $26 million was losing them money
It doesnt matter because it was always going to be 57% one way or another.
The real holdup is not money, its the system. The system produces a league in which some teams can’t afford the salary floor (kings) while antother keeps spending around mistakes (dallas, or knicks the in recent past).
Solution: equalizing income (revenue sharing) + equalizing expanses (salarycap) + new rules to make rebuilding less painfull and slow.
If that still produces teams losing money, I’d want those contracted.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 15, 2011 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The current system works fine, more or less.
As long as we don’t get too many Summers of LeBron.
Seventeen teams lost money last year. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2011/32/basketball-valuations-11_rank.html
Eight of those teams (Philly, Milwaukee, Memphis, Utah, San Antonio, DC, Miami, and New Orleans) would have made money in a normal (non-Summer of LeBron) year with normal escrow fund distribution. If these teams can’t live through one outlier year when revenue sharing through the escrow and luxury tax systems gets disrupted, then fix the revenue sharing system so that this can’t happen.
The Nets lost money, but they made their old owner billions by facilitating real estate development, and they are set up to make tons of money for their new owner after they move to Brooklyn. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7021031/the-nets-nba-economics
The Hawks, Nuggets, Magic, and Mavs all overspent to try to compete and keep their stars happy. They purposely chose to lose money this year.
Indiana, Minnesota, Charlotte, and Sacramento have all been very poorly managed. Indy is stacked with bad contracts. Khan is a joke. We know about MJ first hand. The Maloofs have pissed off their own fanbase.
That’s everyone, all seventeen money-losing teams. Why should the players take a pay cut to help these teams turn a profit? If you choose to lose money, don’t come crying that you’re losing money. If you mismanage your team, you deserve to lose money.
Again, the system changes are not about taking a pay cut
Whatever % they agree upon is what they are going to be paid, and I couldn’t care less about what that % is going to be.
The old system with a 53% deal is costing the owners exactly the same amount of money as a new system with a 53% deal.
The cap and other changes isn’t saving the owners money. It helps improve the competative balance. That’s what I want too.
"My logic fails all the time...especially when talking to females" Rook6980
by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 15, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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