20 Days, 20 Questions: The three restricted free agents
by Mike Prada on Sep 8, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintWith the first day of Wizards training camp coming, Bullets Forever is asking 20 questions about key issues with the team in 2010/11.
It may seem odd to begin this series with a question that looks ahead, but as any good organization will tell you, it's important to always keep one eye on the future. In the next 10 months, the Wizards will have to make a decision about whether to include three young-ish players in their future.
Nick Young, Al Thornton and Yi Jianlian were all a part of the 2007 draft class. The Wizards could elect to give any of them a contract extension by October 31, or they could let them play out the season and have them become restricted free agents next summer. Alternatively, if they play poorly enough, they can simply renounce their rights and cast them loose after the season, like they did with Randy Foye this summer. Sometime in the next 11 months, the Wizards will have to make those key judgment calls.
Therefore, here's question 20.
What do Young, Thornton and Yi need to do to be retained after the season?
We've talked about Yi a lot recently because of his play in FIBA, so I won't say too much about him. He certainly needs to improve his rebounding and defense, and it's also key for him to show the same kind of offensive efficiency -- both in terms of shooting efficiency and his ability to be engaged when he doesn't have the ball -- that he showed out in Turkey. If he does all that, which will be a challenge even after his strong FIBA play, he would probably cement his place in the Wizards' future. His style certainly fits in with the kind of perimeter-oriented big men Flip Saunders likes to have.
So let's talk about Young and Thornton. Both players have played for this organization already, so we have a little bit more to stand on than with Yi. However, that sample is pretty small. Thornton has only played 24 games with the Wizards, and the new incarnation of Young (discussed here) has only been here for one season. If everyone on the team is healthy, both players will be coming off the bench this season, so they will have to make the most of the few chances they get to show their worth.
As we've talked about before, Young was a much different player last season. He did a lot more shooting off the pass rather than off the dribble. He also took more three-pointers than before, and frankly, did a lot less dunking and high flying. For the second straight year, the Wizards somehow were a much better team in terms of point differential/100 possessions with him on the court than with him off it, indicating his defense also improved. And yet, his production really tumbled from his more promising 2008/09 season. An optimist (like myself) would say Young was being broken down to later be built back up, but before he can be built back up, he needs to be even more consistent from possession to possession. Considering Young's slow path in the NBA thus far, it's just as likely that he can't do those things than he can.
It's also unclear where Young fits into the rotation now that the Wizards have two players -- Gilbert Arenas and Kirk Hinrich -- who play his position. Last season, Young's strengths compared to the other wings on the roster were his shooting and his athleticism, at least with potentially stopping the opposing teams' top perimeter threats. But Hinrich and Arenas both offer better perimeter shooting, and Hinrich, even at his age, is probably a superior defender. Sure, Hinrich (and maybe Arenas) won't be around for the whole rebuild, but if they're doing what Young currently does better, you have to wonder how Young will get enough time to prove himself.
As for Thornton, he has a leg up on Young simply because the small forward position is pretty wide open. Josh Howard is also on a one-year contract, and it's hard to believe the Wizards will want him after the season. Thornton certainly impressed the coaching staff last season with his aggressive play, and he's vowed to come into camp in better shape than he was in last season. You would think that, if forced to choose between keeping Young and Thornton, the Wizards would choose Thornton.
The problem Thornton faces is that there may not be a ton of room for him to dramatically improve his game. His jump shot is awkward, and I doubt he'll be able to radically change his form at this point. He certainly needs to get better with the more mental areas of the game -- off-ball defense, pick and roll defense and cutting -- but those are often the toughest areas to improve from year to year. To his credit, Thornton rebounded well for his position in his 24-game stint in D.C., and his usage rate dropped to a more manageable figure considering his scoring efficiency, but he'll have to keep those trends up for more than 24 games for me to fully jump on board.
We also have to consider that there exists a chance that all three could play well and the Wizards could still pull the plug. If the Wizards renounce all three after the season, they will enter the 2011 summer with only $42 million in committed salary, which could be enough to make a play for a maximum free agent depending on what happens with the CBA. It can be problematic to give long-term deals to role players even if they play well, which is what Thornton, Yi and Young all projected to be with this team.
Regardless, we know one thing: this is a huge season for Young, Thornton and Yi. All three players are playing for a spot in the Wizards' future.
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Same answer for all 3
Become better team players. These guys all have skill, but to be worth keeping, they all need to become more willing passers, smarter shot-choosers, and better team defenders.
My question is
do you feel good enough about any of them to want to see them offered an extension before Oct 31, and before they theoretically drive their prices up (or down)?
The answer to this question
is the difference between a very good GM and a mediocre or poor one. Any GM can pay a guy after he has proven himself. It’s the really good ones who monitor their players’ development closely, who see which guys are on the cusp, and extend their contracts BEFORE they can command a big pay day. Ernie has almost never done well on this front. He will probably not extend any of them, and quite frankly, GMs aren’t strongly criticized when they fail to lock someone up before they have a break out year. But if Grunfeld can correctly make the call on these guys and extend the right guy before he has a good year this year, I will give him serious props.
I generally agree
It always baffles me how so few teams really make it a priority to lock up guys before they hit restricted free agency. Imagine if Memphis was willing to bend a little on their $50 million or nothing offer to Rudy Gay last summer. If they would have gone up to, say, $55 million, it would have saved them a ton of money.
(Ironically, it was Ernie’s foresight in giving Caron Butler an extension before his first game with the Wizards that I think was one of his best moves).
However, with all three of these guys, it’s tough to really project where they actually fit into the team’s plans long-term. About the only guy who we have some idea about is Thornton, and I’m not sure he’s worth locking up.
Become a stud off the bench!
At this point all three are rotation players on this roster but with JHoward healthy, Arenas and Hinrich seeing PT at 2, Blatche starting at 4 and Seraphin and Booker also in the mix it could be hard for them to see significant PT. I think one of these 3 players will emerge as a very serviceable rotation player for about 15 mpg.
All three are mediocre defenders on a team that defensively is average at best. So whoever shows significant improvement on that end off the court will see PT.
Therefore Yi holds the best cards in my opinion. He has the size and athleticism to grab defensive boards block some shots and get us out in transition early. On the offensive end he has range and is showing improvement on his inside game at the worlds. He could become a very complete bigman.
Whereas NY and AT are average sized scorers with good athleticism, a nice jump shot and mediocre defense. Nothing about their games makes them potentially stand out to me.
The jury is out on this one, the ball is in their court! (i love cliché´s)
At the right price, sure, resign them — but the problem is that the “right price” is much less than those guys are going to want, so we won’t be offering (and they won’t be accepting) any reasonable extension before Oct. 31, and they will test the free agent waters next season. And be disappointed, because these guys are all bench guys who perceive themselves as someone who should start. As we’ve said, maybe Yi surprises us, but I doubt it. Most likely they’ll be playing for significantly less than the mid-level exception next year, either here or somewhere else.
I agree with you completely
They should all be solid bench players. I think Al is what he is and if he doesnt ask for too much money Id love to keep him around as our backup SF.
Nick should accept his role as a bench scorer. I think he’d be much more effective if he was content with his role…he’d also probably get to keep his spot on the team.
Hopefully Yi can develop into our 3rd or 4th big man…I havent seen him play yet but if he does well then again id like to see him retained for the right price
I wouldn't be optimistic for any of them, honestly, but...
For Nick Young to stay in DC, I think that he’ll have to show he can be consistently productive in Flip’s system. It’s an old story, but Nick’s inconsistency has overshadowed his athleticism and scoring ability, since he isn’t always able to use his skills confidently and effectively in the offense. Taking a big step towards establishing a baseline for his performances (i.e. flattening out the valleys in his peak-and-valley game) would help his case for bigger chunks of minutes on the court, and consequentially, a future with the WIzards. However, I feel that, barring an astronomic rise in production, Nick’s success has to come within the confines of Flip’s offense. Nick has had three years in Washington to prove himself- two years to create his own offense, and another year to play the catch-and-shoot game- and despite the middling progress he’s made, after this year the Wizards really need to consider the returns they’ll be seeing on their investment on Young. If Nick shows flashes of his scoring ability, but reverts back to breaking the offense to get his points, I get the feeling that another team will be willing to pay more than the Wizards for his services (as kind of a Rudy Gay lite, perhaps, with an overpriced contract to scale). On the other hand, the Wiz did pick up Young’s option, and I have a gut feeling that he might stay in Washington just to feed Ernie’s ego.
Thornton is athletic and can bring some defense and (maybe) rebounding to the small forward position, but Trevor Booker is almost four years younger, just as athletic, and has a better defensive pedigree, so Thornton isn’t exactly essential to the team’s future. But with questionable depth at the small forward position already, and with Howard’s contract expiring at the end of next year, who’s going to take Thornton’s roster spot? If Thornton can become a little more efficient on offense, maintain his rebounding averages, and play solid defense, he’ll have earned at least a fair chance to make the roster against (or even in addition to) the small forwards available through free agency and the draft.
As for Yi, I think showing that he can use his physical tools in the game of basketball will earn him a contract from the Wiz. Whether that means he turns into an offensive matchup problem because of his height and length, or he becomes a defensive disruptor, he needs to fill some of the potential that he’s always said to have. Of course, if he takes more threes (as Prada detailed in a previous post) and makes them, that can’t hurt his chances.
by mr. 91 on Sep 8, 2010 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'd like to see Nick Young retained
but I don’t think it will happen. I just get a vibe that Nick Young isn’t well liked by the coaching staff. It’s probably his carefree attitude. He never looks serious.
What I’d really like to see is for Young to bulk up (reportedly, he gained 10 pounds this offseason) and handle some minutes at SF. Young is at his best when he is catching-and-shooting from 3-point range and when he is guarding a primary scorer with the ball in his hands. If Young gets a little stronger, he can be the designated stopper at either SG or SF as well as the designated spot-up shooter on offense.
I don’t see a role for Thornton. Flip likes his SF’s to be low-usage players who catch and shoot with efficiency. That’s not Thornton’s game. I figure Booker will take his spot sooner or later. Of if not, we’d be better off going after a free agent SF like Tayshaun Prince rather than resigning Thornton.
The retention of Yi will depend upon the development of Seraphin (and to a lesser extent, McGee). If McGee can hold down the C position for 30 minutes, and if Seraphin projects to be an Okafor type of PF/C, then the three-man rotation of Blatche, McGee and Seraphin should be enough. We’d probably extend a lowball offer to Yi to keep him for depth, but somebody else will probably offer more. The wildcard is the marketing angle. If Yi brings revenue, he may stay regardless of his basketball ability.
Yes, I agree, a shot at SF may save Nick's career here...
Surely he has a higher upside than either Thornton or Howard at this stage.
As far as Yi goes, the guy just played pretty impressively in the Worlds including a double double on a bad achilles in China’s final game against Lithuania. A four-man front-line rotation of Blatche, McGee, Seraphin and Yi might prove interesting… Certainly moblie and with Blatche and Yi, in any case, able to spread the court a bit. But Yi will have to do his share of banging if he is going to stick with the Wizards.
I still think Nick hasn't got a fair shot.
Reading this article takes me back to the question as to what is Wizards management vision for the future. Right now it seems conflicted and that is why Nick may not be around next year.
First, I like the signing of Yi. I’m hoping he keeps the pressure on AB to continue to improve so Yi won’t steal minutes from him. And if Yi doesn’t improve then it’s not much of a lose. But I think Yi will be here for a little while.
Second, I like Thornton coming off the bench as a sort of defensive stopper who can score. He showed in his first game here against Denver that he can move his feet and cause problems for wing players. I think he’s a keeper.
I agree with the person who said the coaches don’t seem to like Nick. Also, Wizards Management has brought in Kirk, which will take minutes away from Nick. With Nick’s play at the end of last year he deserve not to have to compete with a person who’s going to get playing time mostly based on the fact that the GM likes him and he’s making $9 million. He also won’t get much run at the small forward position because they have resigned another vet who will get playing time as well. I think when Nick leaves here he’s going to have break out year.
Wizards management vision seems to be shooting to have the 13th or 14th place in the 2011 lottery.
I've always been a big fan of Thornton dating back to his FSU days.
I can’t say the same for Nick Young and Yi Jianlian, though I’m pretty excited to see what they can offer us this year. Thornton, I think, will be the biggest contributor of the three – he’ll be the most consistent scorer and defender. I think of him as a better version of Nick Young; his speed and hops aren’t quite like NY’s, nor is his shooting, but his defense as a whole, strength, size and more versatile offensive game give him the edge here. He also showed an intriguing level of toughness last year, enough to keep him around beyond next year. I think he’ll have a really solid year, end up as the starter, and ink a good deal. Roughly 4-5 years, for around 20-30 million total.
NICK
HIS agent is hoping they don’t pick it up, so he can go some where else and show what he can do when given the chance, allowed to play through mistakes. DID NICK wrong you guys in another life or he’s so good you’re not willing to give him the same leway as others. you keep talking about being inconsisent, he’s no more inconsistence than anyone else on the team, as a matter of fact he’s more consistent than most. NICK can out score thornton blind folded. THIS is just me,HE couldn’t play for the clippers.
straight talk
by Mae.jude@yahoo.com on Sep 8, 2010 6:33 PM EDT reply actions
I politely disagree with the following
-“he’s no more inconsistence than anyone else on the team”
-“as a matter of fact he’s more consistent than most” (especially this)
what are you basing these opinions off of?
Oh come on.
Will you guys please stop pretending to actually argue with this guy?
by MR on Sep 8, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
He has a point though
I am kinda pissed at NY for stealing my horse in a previous life. Petty I know, but hey you don’t forgive that just because you’ve both died and been reincarnated.
by BayAreaBullet on Sep 8, 2010 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I knew there was something familiar about this Yi coverage
Is it me or does Yi’s FIBA play look a lot like Andray Blatche’s 2nd half last year?
"you have to wonder how Young will get enough time to prove himself."
This is the biggest problem. We’ve seen it time after time. Mike you’ve said it before, players need to PLAY to improve. And that goes double for Nick Young because has the skills and tools and that’s something that pretty much sticks regardless of situation. But Young’s problem (hopefully) seems to be lack of awareness and IQ and to have any chance of improving those, a player must play consistently i.e Blatche and Young after the trades.
Or: Maybe Young is what he is, a one-dimensional volume scorer who offers little else in any other stat column (or even things that don’t show up in the stat column).
Quit saying Young is one-dimensional!
Everybody says this, and yet, nobody can explain why Young has had such a consistently positive on/off differential for two years now. The team plays well with Young on the floor. When Young started and played 30+ minutes, the team went 8-5 (.615) last year! That’s an incredible stat when you factor that the team was 18-51 (.260) when Young did not start and play 30+ minutes.
Young plays good defense. He shuts down his man when he has the ball and he challenges 3-point shooters better than anybody else. I know Young doesn’t pass or rebound, but he manages to prevent his counterpart from passing or rebounding too. (His counterpart PER allowed is consistently among the best on the team.)
Those are positive stats, but there are some possible explanations other than Young's ability
I looked at games where Nick played 30+ minutes and see a record of 8-7 (I guess the extra two losses he came off the bench and played starter minutes). The teams they played against averaged 39-43 (worse than average, but not terrible). So we have a small sample, and worse-than-average competition (considering all non-Wizards teams averaged 41.5 wins). Then I’d add the observation many of us have made that the coaches seemed to bench Young when he wasn’t playing well, thus biasing our sample. It’s easier to play well when your team is playing better than the other team (it might sound circular, but it’s true), so it’s possible that that Young is just getting more PT in wins, rather than causing them.
As for the on/off differential, the approach of the coaches in deciding his playing time factor in again. If the coaches leave him in when things are going well and take him out when they’re not, then it would be really tough for him NOT to have a positive on/off differential. Stevenson, McGuire and Ross may have had something to do with that as well.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that you’re looking at stats with lots of noise in them. It is interesting though.
THOSE THREE
IN THE SAME BREATH WITH NICK YOUNG [are you’re kidding].
straight talk
by Mae.jude@yahoo.com on Sep 9, 2010 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
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