Just in case you missed this summer...

Here’s a qualitative summary of concerns for your perusal for anyone who may have been out of the loop for a while, and if anyone detects one of several likely holes, feel free to plug ‘em, argue, etc.  This isn’t comprehensive, but I’m going to try in a half-assed Monday afternoon kind of way.  I’m definitely going to err on both sides of the spectrum…the FML t-shirt is just waiting in my closet, but I’ll be on atdhe.net either way.  You know where this all starts:

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

Just like Yi will tell you, every campaign begins at the Great Wall.  This guy had franchise savior hung around his neck as soon as Irene Pollins’ mouth fell open.  Anyone who’s watched his YouTube clips, ESPN demonstrations, or checked out Summer League action saw his blazing speed.  If Wall caught you flatfooted, he was driving past the guy behind you.  First thing I want to take a peek at is how he will handle the pressure of expectations.  In light of summer league action, it’s hard to doubt his chops as a floor general.  From screaming, "Get me assists!" to furious encouragement for his teammates when they stayed within the system (and notably silence when they broke plays, regardless of scoring), Wall showed us the alpha mentality and killer instinct we’re all sucking down the Kool-Aid over.  He’s said and done all the right things; handled the initial rush of fame like a rock star before the drugs take over (knock on wood).  He signed a $25 million deal to step in for Allen Iverson’s ghost at Reebok.  Everybody remembers what happened to Grant Hill and plenty blamed his deal with FILA’s inferior product.  This is a minor concern, but if he suffers some kind of nagging foot injury, expect to hear the Zigtech Slash come up in conversation.  In addition on the injury front, I’ve seen some video where Wall has claimed a stiff back, my guess is if you hear about this prior to game time, expect to watch him brick a few jump shots.  Overpenetration is occasionally an issue, hopefully Javale McGee negates this problem with an aggressive inside presence on offense.  While no one is expecting Chris Paul in 2008, we wouldn’t refuse to believe it happened.  One factor we can all be relieved about: Wall has been given the keys to the franchise.  Duh, you say.  Well, I say every player on the 2010 Washington Wizards knows they are gone before Wall is.  The upshot is that we have an identity beyond, ‘We don’t play defense’ built around a vocal, scoring distributor.  Nobody wants to say dynasty, but stranger things have happened.  You must have a big 3 or a super 2 to make a decent run in the playoffs with a strong supporting cast, so let’s see where our cornerstone is going to get his help in the future.

By popular demand, I give you Gilbert Arenas.  Including him second may raise some eyebrows, but I defy you to find another player so integral to the immediate on the court success and financial impact of the team.  It’s in vogue to label his the worst contract in pro sports, and maybe it is, but his work ethic has never been called into question.  Gilbert is a gym rat, a hard worker, and while there have been a few rumblings, all signs point to him getting the message that the next face on the Verizon Center’s marquee will be Wall’s.  With all the folderol surrounding on court chemistry projections playing next to number 2, most people tend to overlook Gil’s most encouraging statistic from last year playing in Saunders’ system.  His spot up 3 ball hit close to 50%, which is exactly what you want to see from a SG on the other end of a drive and kick.  Add in an ability to take it the house any time a defender crowds him and you have the reason so many of the faithful remain convinced of his ability to make the transition to complementing PG play.  Injuries remain a concern despite an intensive, prolonged rehabilitation process and there’s nothing for it but to wait and see.  The playmaker role moving to Wall while legitimate scoring options emerge at all positions should reduce wear and tear on Arenas’ body, and we’ll see if that translates into a playoff run or midseason trade.

Next is the $3 million man who declared himself underpaid after an electrifying second half of a nightmare season that we’re all banking on being more than a flash in the pan.  Putting up double-doubles against double teams against playoff bubble teams indicates a strong 2011 campaign, in my mind, but also a concern.  As Blatche is obviously looking hard at an upcoming extension or new contract in the next year or two (he has two years remaining), it remains to be seen how he will fare both on the court and in the media in an offense where he isn’t the first option (though he may end up being just that).  If his numbers dip, he may be seeing dollar signs dip as well, may start breaking plays to pad stats, and seriously damage team chemistry, his reputation around the league, and his possible trade value if things go really bad.  But if these pitfalls can be avoided and Blatche continues to evolve, I’m right there with Pradamaster, putting AB easily into the league’s top 10 power forwards.  His injury playing pickup ball this summer elicited a horrified gasp from those of us paying attention.  While he remains unconcerned about it entering the last few months before the season gets started, the rest of us remember with dread the curse of les boulez.

All our hopes at SF ride on Josh Howard, so here he is, a nearly past his prime star (depending on who you ask) coming back from a career threatening injury.  J-Ho showed a real spark of veteran leadership in the locker room akin to another J-Ho, Juwan Howard, revving the engines up in Portland pre-playoffs.  The value of this cannot be fully measured, but if it continues along with the solid play and defense we saw up until his season ending mishap, $4 million is going to look like highway robbery.  To succeed on a team with so many weapons, he will have to refuse to fall back in love with his jump shot, a definite point of concern considering that happened in Dallas, not exactly a team bereft of scoring options.  One of the biggest question marks is how he will affect Andray Blatche’s mindset off the court.  The last thing many of us wanted to see post trade, amid Maverick rumor-mongering concerning his alleged hijinks, was AB attached at the hip learning better ways to screw up his career.  BUT, if he can teach Blatche how to balance the work and home tightrope, he can seriously give AB the push he needs to take the next step this year and enter the All-Star game discussion.

While his court impact may not necessarily put him here, the polarizing nature of the trade to acquire Kirk Hinrich means I talk about him now.  One thing we can all hopefully agree on is that Hinrich is no stranger to making room for a franchise player, and even helping out wherever possible along the way.  In a locker room filled with question marks and guys who have never played together before, a veteran playoff team captain should be just the additional stabilizing influence we need to see a positive locker room culture emerge.  Kevin E asked Ted how he planned to address that very issue, and while Ted’s assistant’s response of bringing in quality core players didn’t really satisfy anyone, maybe it will cut the mustard after all.  With Hinrich and Howard riding herd while Wall is orchestrating the offense, we could be seeing the kind of foundation a playoff team’s identity rises from.  If Gil and Blatche buy in, seeing the postseason almost seems like a gimme.  Concerning Hinrich’s on the court play, the man loves his jumpshot like Darryl Dawkins loved to break backboards.  If we see a year like 2008-09 from Hinrich, where his jumpshot eFG% hovered at 51% while shooting 40% from the 3 and playing 20 odd minutes a game, we can be satisfied.  Almost forgot, he is a tough perimeter defender who compensates for a lack of athleticism with grit and technique (pay attention…Nick Young, this means you).

At last the Vale of Cashmere hisself, Javale McGee.  Anyone who watched the blue versus white Team USA scrimmages saw JVM’s career in microcosm; flashes of an electrifying offensive presence with shotblocking ability coupled with a maddening lack of defensive fundamentals and poor shot selection.  Remember when he grabbed an offensive rebound at the top of the paint against Golden State, brought it to the top of the perimeter and decided to take it in himself?  I was laughing and cursing at the same time.  In what’s become a yearly tradition, we ask, "Is this the year?"  Well, more and more us are asking, "Is this the year the brass get him a dedicated position coach?"  More than anything else, that’s what we want to see, because even with his mom (not a joke, Pam McGee was a pro player) taking notes and having him pore over them after games, his defensive improvement has been negligible.  After a few years we want to see some progress.  His offense has improved, in the Team USA scrimmage he showed a beautiful spin move finishing with his left hand in traffic, and we saw a significant number of double-doubles last year in increased playing time.  We’re still probably a year or two away, but those who watched Summer League play showed some serious spark between McGee and Wall, and had us drooling over the possibility of Tyson Chandler-lite this year.

Nick Young is next because in the eyes of many, this is a make or break year.  Reportedly battling a learning disability which makes his inconsistency more understandable, he showed up strong when given significant minutes.  An interesting stat showed the Wizards at 4-2 when Young played over 30 minutes.  A recent writeup from Pradamaster illustrates Young making a major transition last year from dribbling all over the floor to a catch-and-shoot player with slashing ability.  If that trend continues, expect to see him mesh well with Wall and to finally show the consistency we’ve been waiting for.

His name came up in a significant amount of trade rumors, but right now our depth at SF is Al Thornton.  After coming to us in the midseason trade for Drew Gooden, Thornton started hot with starter’s minutes after Howard went down, then cooled in keeping with his time on the Clippers’ squad.  A capable backup with dwindling upside, don’t be surprised if his salary is used to balance a midseason deal.

In what for me was the major ‘wtf?’ transaction of the offseason, we acquired Yi Jianlian in a move that made good financial sense, giving us a larger expiring deal in a fiscally neutral move while possibly clearing a spot for Cartier Martin at SF by getting rid of Quinton Ross, whose defense was made redundant by acquiring Hinrich from Chicago and Howard from Dallas.  FIBA is here and color me surprised if Yi isn’t flourishing.  Granted, help defense seems to be a foreign concept (heh) in international play, but Yi is showing the down low scoring punch we’ve missed for so many years.  If nothing else, he is establishing himself as an attractive trade piece for a team looking for some frontcourt depth.  The jury’s out, but even that’s an upgrade, as I failed to think he even deserved a trial.

Kevin Seraphin could be the nasty, finish-through-contact guy we need to make a push against teams like Orlando and Boston.  So many ifs, but the guy is young, and has only played ball 5-odd years.  That big man coach is a need, Ted, not a luxury.  He made a lot of high energy plays in the Nike Hoop Summit against our John Wall, no less.  This man is built to run, just like most of our team, and I’ll be watching his development with bated breath.

The Wizards have signed Hilton Armstrong, wait, who?  The former lottery pick is considered a draft bust, but for a one year deal, what’s the risk?  Armstrong has been showing improvement year by year in the Summer League, and supposedly the Wizards weren’t the only interested party seeking his services.  The man likes contact, and there will plenty of it in an increasingly physical Eastern Conference.  There’s been some concern about bringing in Armstrong rather than developing our next player, but by all reports, this man is Joel Anthony’s kryptonite.  That’s one piece to the Miami puzzle DOWN!

Hamady N’Diaye, the only thing tougher than pronouncing his name is figuring out what to do with him.  As his agent stated, featuring Javale in the Summer Leauge meant that European teams never saw N’Diaye on display (excepting the final John Wall-less game), and as a result there is little to no interest in the Rutgers product.  Are the Wizards going to tender him?  Probably, once the end of October gets closer, but it’s almost a sure thing he’ll be spending time with the D-League affiliate and may have gotten better experience overseas.  Time will tell, but N’Diaye showed flashes of the bruiser we’d love to see taking up space in the paint while McGee grabs the inhaler.

Trevor Booker is last, and no doubt that will engender many cries of ‘Foul!’ but he’s here because I chose to start with Wall.  This is a man who can keep up with John Wall on the open floor, though watching the Summer League leaves us with questions regarding the versatility of his offense.  Speed is nothing if you can’t finish on arrival.  Right now, he looks like a do-everything guy with a developing midrange jumper.  Key to his future with the Wiz is rebounding like James Singleton.  If we have a 23 year old James Singleton with John Wall speed, a better stroke, and a nickname like ‘Grown Ass-Man’, color me Wizards blue and pour me another cup of Kool-Aid.

In conclusion, we are built to run like a Detroit muscle car.  But no muscle car runs without plenty of gas,  no transition team runs without plenty of rebounds, and nothing generates rebounds like contested jump shots.  Defense is going to be huge, and there’s just no way to tell what the product is going to look like come October 28th, but you can bet we’re going to need it against Orlando.