Competition Discussion: Cleveland Cavaliers

by Mike Prada on Sep 10, 2010 1:43 PM EDT in Team Analysis

The season is still not here, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, we're going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next couple months or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Cleveland. Jump to the comments to discuss the Cavaliers and make a prediction on their record.

Previously: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago.

Last year's record: 61-21 (Pythagorean record: 59-23)
Playoffs: Beat Chicago Bulls 4-1 in first round, lost to Boston Celtics 4-2 in second round.

Offensive Rating: 111.2 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 104.1 (7th)
Pace: 91.4 possessions/game (25th)

In: Ramon Sessions, Ryan Hollins, Joey Graham, Samardo Samuels
Out: LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Sebastian Telfair

Projected starting lineup: Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Antawn Jamison, J.J. Hickson, Anderson Varejao

Five big questions:

No LeBron James ... so ... what happens?
Will Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams and others last the season?
The Cavaliers' best player and their top prospect play the same position. How will minutes shake out, especially when the best player has historically shunned a bench role?
Was Byron Scott the right man for this job, considering the team is probably now rebuilding?
Is there some sort of motivating factor from the players to emerge from LeBron's shadow? Will that be reflected in the team's play?

Before we start, it's probably worth looking at how many teams have performed the year after losing one of the top two or three players in the game. Some examples, off the top of my head:

Boston Celtics in 1969/70 after Bill Russell left: 34-48
Milwaukee Bucks in 1975/76 after Kareem got traded: 38-44, after going 38-44 the previous year
Los Angeles Lakers in 1991/92 after Magic retired: 43-39
Boston Celtics in 1992/93 after Bird retired: 48-34
Chicago Bulls in 1993/94 after Jordan retired: 55-27.
Orlando Magic in 1996/97 after Shaq left: 45-37
Chicago Bulls in 1998/99 after Jordan retired again: 13-37
Los Angeles Lakers in 2004/05 after Shaq left: 34-48

There's a mixed bag, but by and large, the teams do better than you'd expect. Which is kind of interesting, when you think about it. Sure, most of these teams didn't exactly have bare cupboards, but they still mostly outperformed their expected win/loss record. Even with Scottie Pippen remaining, did anyone think the Bulls were going to win 55 and nearly advance to the Eastern Conference Finals that year? I doubt it.

So there's historical precedent that suggests Cleveland will be better than people think. There's also some logical reasons for it too. Sure, LeBron James, as much as we all hate him, was clearly the best player in basketball last year, at least in the regular season. He also clearly did so much for the Cavaliers to put them at the top of the league. But there's also a reasonable argument that suggests that James, to a degree, stunted a few of his teammates. Not necessarily in a bad way, but in a way where their full talents weren't on display. That's certainly true of Antawn Jamison, and I'd argue it's potentially true of a couple other players too. Mo Williams' shooting efficiency rose like crazy with LeBron, but he also lost the little playmaking ability he had when he was in Milwaukee. Anderson Varejao isn't as bad offensively as people think. J.J. Hickson, though benefiting from LeBron's ability to find him on pick and rolls, can score more if he gets more touches.

Throw in a coach in Byron Scott that would prefer to shoot for 40 wins than develop his team, and I think there's a chance the Cavaliers surprise. We know, firsthand, that Jamison can score if you give him touches in motion rather than deploy him as a spot-up shooter. I know Williams can do, and I also personally think guys like Varejao, Hickson, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker and Daniel Gibson will show that they are better than people think. If the Cavaliers can channel that collective chip on their shoulder into their on-court performance, I really don't think the playoffs are too farfetched.

....

Still, I can't do it. I can't be bold and predict playoffs, as much as I want to do so. On paper, this team is awful. They'd have to significantly outperform to even win 30 games, and while I think they're capable of doing so, I'm not going to bet on it. Maybe this makes me a scaredy cat, but I'll take that risk.

Mike's prediction: 27-55, 12th in the Eastern Conference

BF editor predictions:

Team	Mike Prada	CJ Hempfeld	Sean Fagan	Rook6980	Jon Kelman	Jake Whitacre
Atlanta	45-37	44-38	44-38	46-36	48-34	43-39
Boston	51-31	51-31	48-34	42-40	50-32	60-22
Charlotte	44-38	38-44	38-44	44-38	41-41	38-44
Chicago	49-33	46-36	46-36	46-36	50-32	49-33
Cleveland	27-55	24-58	25-57	23-59	24-58	16-66
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Golden State
Houston
Indiana
LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Memphis
Miami
Milwaukee
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Orleans
New York
Oklahoma City
Orlando
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Portland
Sacramento
San Antonio
Toronto
Utah
WIZARDS

Tweet Comment 13 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Dammit

This just isn’t as sweet as it should be.

by MR on Sep 10, 2010 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Why was Haywood not in the game.

Does anyone remember? Why is Ruffin playing center. Oh I forgot Eddie Jordan was coaching.

by Kryp on Sep 10, 2010 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

My God

how could a ref (or 3) miss that call.

It still boggles my mind.

by MR on Sep 10, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Almost feel sorry for Cleveland... almost

I am a Washingtonian by choice and a Pittsburgh-native by birth, so there is a small part of me that likes seeing Cleveland fans suffer. However, with this team I almost feel sorry for them, well maybe Antawn. Gone is the player that I dislike the most and its top two Centers. Will the franchise is saying the right things to its fan base, this team is going to crater. I wish I could enjoy it more but without King Crab Dribble it is just not the same.

Follow me on twitter - @CJ_202SB

by CJ Hempfield on Sep 10, 2010 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

I HATE Cleveland.

Sorry HELL-TO-THE-NO am I ever feeling sorry for these guys. Not after they acted, and fans acted the way they did when we were always down and injured.

I hope Wall drops 20, Arenas drops 40, Blatche 30, and McGee 20 on there asses. I also hope Varejao, West, Williams, Z, and the rest of the crew leave all our matchups heads down and lost in the NBA world of ego’s feeling like 0’s without the Agent.

Sounds harsh, well consider me the bulletsforever Cleveland hater, because frankly I dont let rivalrys go so easily and frankly I have had to many bad experiences with Cleveland fans rubbing losses in my face when my team had nearly none of its competitive players.

You dont have Lebron anymore? Too bad, step your game up or be walked all over by the mighty Wall and burnt to a crisp hibachi style.

by Unxpekted on Sep 10, 2010 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

Also from Pittsburgh, now living in DC

And I hate all things Cleveland. I am also a big Wizards fan. Therefore, this rivarly (besides losing) was perfect for me. But… I think I might hate LeDouche more than Cleveland. If Cleveland performs well without LeTravel, it diminshes his “accomplishements.” I don’t know, I go back and forth on it. But this the scenario that I’d love. Wizards 4 seed, Cavs 8 seed. Heat 1. Cavs beat the Heat to get revenge on Bron (a win for wizards fan). Then, the Wiz sweep the cavs in the 2nd round onto our first championship.

by zeke5123 on Sep 10, 2010 6:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

West and Z

are gone. Z Joined Lebron in Miami and west went back to the celtics…

by SuperXer0 on Sep 10, 2010 10:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

A true rivalry needs 2 competitive parties

If they are at opposite ends of the table jealousy feeds the fury of the bottom feeder. A win over the dominant team is huge and celebrated hugely for quite some time. There´s some fun in the rivalry for the contender as well, but it does not concern them much as they are occupied by larger issues. For a true rivalry to be grotesque and compelling both clubs need to battle each other deep in the playoffs.

Until then, lets make the shift in the power balance be as humiliating and embarrassing as it can be for them!!

by Dutch Hoopfan on Sep 10, 2010 8:06 PM EDT reply actions

There's definitely something to be said about a winning mentality

But eventually talent wins out. These guys might overachieve just based on a winning mentality, but they’ll be overmatched a lot and that confidence will crumble eventually. I’m guessing it happens pretty fast and they only win 26 games.

So Hickson is their best prospect, right? Do you think 34-year-old no-D Jamison will be their best player? He definitely fell off last year. If he’s really their best then they’re only gonna win 10 games. I think Varejao, Williams and Hickson will probably all be at least as good this year.

by steadyhand on Sep 10, 2010 11:09 PM EDT reply actions

There is no Pippin on the roster.

If there was they would have won a title.

by MR on Sep 10, 2010 11:24 PM EDT reply actions

lol at the Cleveland Cavaliers

basically…..

by qthaballa on Sep 10, 2010 11:48 PM EDT reply actions

Jake Whitacre

I was with you with all your picks except Boston (I don’t think they will win that many games), but now I have to defend Cleveland a little. I hate Cleveland like everyone else, but are they really 16 wins bad? I mean you think they will only win 4 more games than the Nets did last year. I don’t know if they are that bad. Granted they are bad, but they do have some decent veterans like Jamison, Williams, and Parker and a budding young talent in Hickson. They also have a very good coach in Byron Scott, so they should be due for more than 16 games. When you’re saying 16 games you’re talking about arguably one of the worst teams in history. Is there roster that bad?

by ThePGPhenomenon on Sep 11, 2010 11:16 AM EDT reply actions