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Yi Jianlian needs to take a step back

I'll be honest: I'm not that enthused about Yi Jianlian next year.  It's not his fault, and I understand the Wizards essentially got him for free, but I'm really not impressed by his game.  Thus far, he's demonstrated that he's an inefficient scorer (48% TS%, which is dreadful), a poor rebounder (7.9/36 minutes is bad for a power forward) and a confused defender.  His per-game numbers make it seem like he improved last year, but it's a mirage that had more to do with just getting more minutes -- his per-minute stats didn't get any better.  

So I'm not exactly holding my breath that he'll become a completely different player.  He hasn't even really shown flashes - he's just played consistently mediocre basketball.  

However, there is one way Yi can become a somewhat valuable player this year.  He just has to learn to take a few steps back on the court.

Star-divide

Specifically, Yi needs to start shooting more threes.  David Thorpe, who trained Yi for a bit this summer, has the right idea when he told Truth About It this:

"I think he should play a game like Rashard Lewis," said Thorpe, "Shoot the three, play a shot fake and attack game and spread the floor. He should be really, really effective in transition with John Wall because Yi is unbelievably fast."  

This really shouldn't be that hard of a transition.  Yi has a good-looking shot, from the naked eye.  It looks like he shoots with confidence, gets good balance, etc.  Once you see Yi shoot, it surprises you that he's so inefficient.

The problem is that it's pretty much impossible to be an efficient scorer when you shoot as many long two-pointers as Yi has in his NBA career.  And now, we see why he's inefficient.

Take a look at just how many of Yi's shots come from 16-23 feet, via HoopData.

Season Attempts Total shots Percentage
2008 264 520 50.7%
2009 167 500 33.4%
2010 232 563 41.2%

 

In his best year, one of every three shots Yi attempted was from the most inefficient spot on the floor.  And that's when he was most selective.  Meanwhile, Yi went from attempting 3.5 threes/36 minutes in 2009 to less than one/36 minutes in 2010.  He has the range; he just doesn't display it.

The thing is, Yi's percentages from 16-23 feet would be pretty decent if he was able to replicate them when he took a step back.  During his career, he's shot 44, 35 and 37 percent from 16-23 feet, respectively.  If he were to match that percentage from behind the three-point line, he'd be above the league average.  Add in the extra point you receive, and it's a tradeoff that's worth it for Yi's efficiency.  

For example, what if half of Yi's 16-23 footers over the last three years were threes?  What if we added those threes to the threes he already attempted and assumed he hit them all at the same clip he hit 16-23 footers.  Look at how that would affect his efficiency.

Year Old eFG% New eFG% Difference
2008 42.7% 48.9% +6.2%
2009 43% 45.8% +2.8%
2010 41.7% 45.6% +3.9%

 

Year Old TS% New TS% Difference
2008 48.5% 54% +5.5%
2009 47.4% 49.9% +2.5%
2010 48.1% 51.6% +3.5%

Okay, so he'd still be pretty inefficient, but at least he's closer to becoming somewhat useful.  Hopefully, more practice shooting behind the three-point line would improve his percentages even further and make him even more efficient.  

Combine that with (hopefully) more transition opportunities (Synergy ranked him as the 36th-best finisher in transition, but with a small sample size), and Yi has to realize he can become a smarter shooter that makes much more of a real contribution than he's made in his NBA career.  It will just require a change in mindset and some additional practice on taking threes rather than long twos.

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It will just require a change in mindset and some additional practice on taking threes rather than long twos.

Won’t it take different coaching schemes? Those plays are designed for Lewis to be where he is. If you just drift around the 3pt line on your own then you’re OPech.

by MR on Aug 23, 2010 1:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Not really

His job in New Jersey was to space the floor for Brook Lopez and Devin Harris – he does that better if he stands behind the line instead of in front of it.

by Mike Prada on Aug 23, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, on second thought

Yeah, he’d have to be schemed to be in the right spot – should have noted that.

by Mike Prada on Aug 23, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Couldn't he just be inserted in Mike Miller's spot last year?

Miller caught a lot of kicks out and was fairly open. Of course Miller was far from trigger happy and maybe that was because of lack of enthusiasm or sheer unselfishness. With Yi though, he can just let em’ rip. And at 7’0 he really doesn’t have to worry about strong close outs or contests.

by qthaballa on Aug 25, 2010 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'll take it a step further

He should also take a half step back on DEFENSE.

He’s long enough to still contest shots playing another half step off his man – but it would deter at least some of the times his man just drives around him…..

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Aug 23, 2010 1:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Yi is a good shooter

The problem is that he’s a stupid shooter. He takes way too many contested shots. He needs to learn when to shoot, when to drive, and when to swing the ball to a teammate. Basically, he needs to learn how to play the game of basketball. He has zero feel for the game.

Yi has spent too much time as a man amongst boys playing against crappy competition in China. He’s really like a straight out of high school kid who is used to being much, much, much bigger, stronger, and faster than the kid trying to defend him. Who needs to learn the nuances of the game when you can get away with anything?

Anyone have any thoughts on how to accelerate his education? (And JaVale’s, and Nick’s, and the rookies’.) Practice, obviously. Watch tape. Are any of the NBA-based video games any good, or are they all still completely unrealistic and ridiculous?

by yop32 on Aug 23, 2010 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

I know you were just making a point

but no way can you assume he would make those 3s at the same clip as the 16-23 footers. Maybe at his career 3 point average of .342. But no way can you project 44, 35 and 37%.

We can dream though.

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Aug 23, 2010 4:02 PM EDT reply actions  

It's further away

But that’s not the same thing as saying it’s harder. You can practice those shots and get into the right rhythm to line those up. Many players hit a higher percentage of threes than shots from 16-23 feet.

by Mike Prada on Aug 23, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

But

My point is that we already have a decent enough sample size to know roughly what he would shoot on 3s. And that’s around 34-35%. Without running the numbers, I’m pretty sure your conclusion still holds up though. He should shoot more 3s rather than long 2s (as should most players – D-Song excepted).

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Aug 24, 2010 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't expect much from him

Although it’s easy to speculate and say things like “if only he could do this, he would be efficient,” it’s extremely unlikely for a player who’s been consistently below average to suddenly improve.

by zl on Aug 23, 2010 7:08 PM EDT reply actions  

One thing to note though is that his 'long two' propensity fits Flip's offense

I’d written on the same topic elsewhere, but noted that Flip’s teams tend to rank among the league leaders in ‘long two’ attempts. Two-guards and power forwards especially.

It’s a feature of the offense, picture KG setting picks or ‘posting’ at the free throw line, or McDyess sinking wide open J’s from about the same distance offset. Flip knows that teams are willing to give up jumpers from no-man’s land, due to the generally lower percentage, no one is gameplanning to stop it much. Flip designs an offense to take what the defense will give you, and a wideopen midrange shot becomes a high percentage shot.

Secondary benefit: Flip prefers to have room under the basket for the offguard and swing forward to run baseline crossing patterns past double screens or pin screens. He often keeps a skill-position Big at the pivot position above the free throw line, able to step up to set an outside pick or to make the relay pass to the cutter off the baseline curl, or if left wide open to drive the lane or sink the shot.

Both Yi and Hilton prefer to play a face-up game. They both figure to feature as Back-ups to Dray, or replacements if he needs a little more time to recover.

I suspect their eFG% will increase somewhat even if they don’t bunny hop backwards to 3pt range. They are a good (-ish) fit for what Flip already runs, without forcing them to learn skills that may be beyond their confidence, if not ability. Sheed might take that three, but I doubt we’ll see Yi dropping a heavy volume barrage from howitzer range.

Still, if he has the open shot at long two, he’s not gonna be shouted at for taking it, he may develop confidence and improve his shooting numbers anyway.

by doclinkin on Aug 23, 2010 7:39 PM EDT reply actions  

... and that concerns me

Because if there’s anything that’s clear from Yi’s shot attempts, he’s not lacking in confidence.

by Mike Prada on Aug 23, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not confidence

Yi isn’t shooting because he’s confident. He’s shooting because he doesn’t see any other options. He doesn’t know where his teammates are, so the only option he has to avoid a turnover is to shoot.

by yop32 on Aug 24, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think you can say that Yi didn't show flashes

And I would have to disagree on the “consistently mediocre” part as well. I think he is a consistently inconsistent player. He rarely finishes the game near his average. One day he’d score 3 points on 12/16 shooting and the very next three games he’d go onto score 7, 8, 11 respectively. On certain nights he’d grab 10, 19, 10 rebounds, and the next streak is 7, 2, 5, 5 and so on… Another reason why for him its never about consistency is that he’s never healthy. He has yet to play a full season, heck a 70 game season. I think yi is kind of like J R Smith in that sense because you know that he’s capable of getting a 20 10 any give night but you rarely see him do it (i used JR smith as an example becaus you know hes capable of scoring 30 points a night but at the same time its rare to see). For Yi, getting smarter would be key i guess.

by Young Wook Lee on Aug 23, 2010 11:48 PM EDT reply actions  

god what i would give for one guy who can pair up with AB in the paint, play legit defense, grab rebounds, alter shots and make a put back. he doesn’t even have to have real offensive skills! maybe we really should have traded for that center out of kansas!

by les boulez bomber on Aug 25, 2010 12:06 PM EDT reply actions  

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