Why John Wall's scoring numbers may be lower than you'd expect next season

Definitely agree that Wall’s scoring won’t be as high as people think it will. This is not because he can’t be an elite scorer, it is just that we have about 3-4 other guys that you stated above that will be taking the majority of the shots.

A strong season to me that would get him the ROY would be 17ppg, 9 assists, 5 reb and 2 steals. I don’t think those numbers will be too tough for an elite athlete like Wall to achieve. He could even average a double double for the year. Wall will get his points, probably 25-30 games where he has 20+ points, but is focused on getting everyone else involved. I am pretty sure that Wall realizes that an assist is just as good as a bucket from himself.

This guy is going to be a very special player for us.

But honestly, I’m more anxious to see if Blatche is legit (i believe he is)

Unknown how long it takes before they round back into game shape. Blatche has pins in his foot which is rarely a quick, easy heal for a Big guy. He’s optimistic he’ll be ready by training camp. I’m hopeful he is and believe in the power of positive thinking. You can do IT!

Josh had his ACL re-knitted surgery, which we all well know can take a long time to get right afterwards, and even when ready to play can’t be expected to carry a heavy load and regain their game until about 1 yr (+) post-surgery. That’s February, on an optimists schedule.

There’s odd on probability then we start the season then looking like this:

Johnny Ballgame
Agent Nine
Country Strong AL
Yi
JaVale

Backed up by:
Kirk
Kirk
Nick /Booker /Yi
Hilton/ Seraphin (or Singleton if we re-ink him).
Hilton/ Seraphin

In that respect you have to ask yourself where else our offense is coming from. From here it looks like our scoring comes from:

+ Gilbert initiating the attack when running the twin-guard sets (especially when the defense loads up on JWa), Gilbert running free after downscreens on baseline crossing patterns curling down the lane or if he can get comfortable with the catch-and-shoot when running off ball;
+ Country AL in the role of Crash Forward;
++ JaVale from the high pick and roll;

And John Wall taking his man off the dribble, blowing past cats even when they sag off him or collapse the lane. You can also salt & pepper a little Kirk and Nick taking jumpshots. And anything we can get in transition with all our uptempo long players who can finish on the break. If we have the depth and stamina for it, I bet we’ll run all game long.

In the halfcourt though, Flip’s playbook demands an attack-mode PG, pressuring the defense and getting them to commit to stopping him to force defensive adjustments so the off-ball players can get open shots. He is required to score, it’s not a question, and until we have other real scoring options he’s one of the best we have.

Gilbert is a high usage player, but until now has had his best success initiating off the dribble, even when shooting from three. Him maintaining a high usage rate suggests that Johnny Balls will be running off-ball. A nice change of pace, since nobody will keep up with JDub even in a free sprint, much less after taking a pick from Trevor Booker, but quite frankly it’s unlikely that they split those possessions 50/50. Flip wants Wall as the primary on this team, he’s made that publicly, if perhaps undiplomatically, clear.

Anyway, to start the year we’ll be a guard dominant offense. That’s where our best mismatches are. At least until McGee puts on a flack jacket of muscle and discovers he likes embarrassing people on the low block instead of tooling around on the perimeter trying to look like Nick Young Jr. And later, once he’s gotten his feet wet, I suspect Big Boy Kevin will be finishing a few of those low-post dump-off opportunities. He actually likes to bang, has a better back-to-basket game than a frilly face-up dribble drive game.

It will be interesting once Dray returns though. That’s when we become dynamic and versatile. His mid-range threat will help keep the paint free, and his one-touch passing ability will allow players pivoting around him to be found for open shots, or back-door lobs.

Until then we have Yi trying to do the same thing, which if you believe David Thorpe, is surely a sure thing. As of today though it hasn’t been proven that YI can consistently hit that mid-range shot or take his man off the dribble from the elbow and finish at the rack. You see sketches and scribbles of that masterwork, in highlight reels, but no Sistine Chapel yet.

When Josh Howard comes back healthy, well then we’ll have to see how the team adjusts, how to blow carbon from the chamber and knock the rust off. But by then, what with mid-season trades not impossible, it’s hard to say what sort of team we will have anyway.

No matter what though if healthy (knock wood) you’ll expect to see the ball in the hands of our top rookie for many long minutes a game.

The NCAA is more liberal in terms of the ability of opposing players to check a guard, or to otherwise impede his progress. Wall’s free-throw shooting should increase as a result, and that means points. This league was designed for guys like John Wall.

Personally I think he gets atleast 4-6 easy layups a game just from running the court and the occasional defensive lapse. Plus some free throws. If he develops the ability to hit 2-3 jumpers a game I can see him up around 20.