The Wizards' Five Year Forecast
by Sean Fagan on Aug 11, 2010 8:15 AM EDT
in Team Analysis
Email
PrintWe spend a lot of our time thinking about the present when it comes to the Wizards. Consensus seems to be split on the site between whether the team will spend another year as a bottom-feeder team or whether the addition of John Wall will be enough to sneak the team into the eighth seed in the playoffs. My personal belief is that the team falls into the former camp, as it will be hard for John Wall to take a team that lost 16 straight games and immediately transform them into a lower-echelon contender.
But that’s this year. I’m more interested in predicting the future, and what the next five years hold for the organization. The Wizards are in a unique situation in that the other four teams within the Southeast division are all 2010 playoff teams. Obviously, for the Wizards to move up and reach the playoffs, one or two of these teams will have to decline. So I've decided to have take a look at the lay of the land in the Southeastern Division and boldly predict what the future may hold for each team.
(Note that the "best case," and "worst case" scenarios are from the prospective of a Wizards fan, and should be taken with a grain of salt).
Atlanta Hawks
Overall Trend: Decline
Major Players: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams
Worst Case Scenario: Johnson proves to be worth every penny over the next six years, Smith gets substantially less crazy and the ownership/fanbase situation stabilizes to the point where the Hawks resemble a competent franchise. The Hawks continue their recent run of success in the regular season against the Wizards and lock down third place in the Southeast for the next five years.
Best Case Scenario: The Hawks return to the playoffs this year, only to bow out after another supreme choke job by Johnson and company. The Hawks continue to draft erratically and lose Al Horford via free agency.
Fearless Five Year Forecast: Atlanta is a trendy pick for regression by most NBA pundits, and I am inclined to agree. They’ve hitched their star to Joe Johnson, a dubious move at best, and the front office doesn’t seem to have a convincing plan on how to move forward other than to maintain the status quo. I predict two more years of drubbings at the hands of the Hawks, with the Wizards overtaking them in year three of the John Wall era.
Charlotte Bobcats
Overall Trend: Decline
Major Players: Gerald Wallace, Stephen Jackson
Worst Case Scenario: The Bobcats acquire a primary scorer to take the load off Wallace and Jackson. Larry Brown stops teasing the franchise and commits to the team for the next several years. Michael Jordan removes himself entirely from all day to day operations.
Best Case Scenario: D.J. Augustin and Shaun Livingston both prove to be career backup point guards. Jackson ages overnight. The Bobcats decided to re-up Erick Dampier for silly money.
Fearless Five Year Forecast: Of all the teams in the Southeast, the Bobcats are the most likely candidate to be overtaken in year one. However, if Larry Brown doesn’t fly the coop, I can see Charlotte sneaking back into the playoffs based on the quality of their defense. Nevertheless, I predict major decline for Charlotte in the next few years, and a return to their cellar dwelling status in year two of the John Wall Era.
Orlando Magic
Overall Trend: Stagnation
Major Players: Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson
Worst Case Scenario: The Magic trade VC for Chris Paul to kick off a five year run of domination, with their only challengers being the Miami Heat. Howard learns to shoot FTs and becomes the most dominant big man since Bill Russell.
Best Case Scenario: Chris Duhon takes the reigns as starting point guard after Nelson tweaks himself yet again. Rashard Lewis continues to disappear for months at a time. Vince Carter remains Vince Carter.
Fearless Five Year Forecast : Of all the teams in the Southeast, the Magic are the hardest to predict. At first glance, they appear to be screwed in that they have locked themselves into long term contracts with Duhon, Gortat and Lewis (among others) without an exit strategy. The opportunity to hit a home run is still there for the franchise, and if they miss out on the possible Chris Paul sweepstakes, they could be players for Gilbert Arenas. However, my belief is that the Magic really consider themselves to be a strong enough team to make a run each year. This may be delusional on their part, but so was signing Rashard Lewis for a billion dollars. The Magic will continue to kick sand in the Wizards faces for the next several years, but salary cap flexibility could spell disaster sooner rather than later. Thus I predict the Wizards will overtake the Magic in year four of the John Wall era.
Miami Heat
Overall Trend: Improvement
Major Players: Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Mike Miller and some other dude that cannot be uttered.
Worst Case Scenario: Complete and utter domination.
Best Case Scenario: Really, it all hinges on everyone staying healthy. You never wish for a player to get injured, so I don’t want to say that the best thing that could happen is that Dwayne Wade’s knee falls off ... but honestly, it would be.
Fearless Five Year Forecast : Ugh. Well, I don’t think they win it all this year, but we could be talking about a four-peat following the initial year of ironing out the kinks. I can’t see the Wizards surpassing the Heat in the John Wall era, but hey, stranger things have happened.
Washington Wizards
Overall Trend: Improvement
Major Players: John Wall, Gilbert Arenas, Andray Blatche
Worst Case Scenario: Last year all over again.
Best Case Scenario: John Wall becomes Deron Williams immediately, Blatche screws his head on right and JaVale McGee learns how to properly execute a pick and roll.
Fearless Five Year Forecast : It all depends on Gilbert Arenas. Honestly, this conclusion shocked me. But if you take away Arenas, the Wizards are John Wall and a bunch of guys with varying degrees of potential. And yes, I know, Andray Blatche, to which I refute that someone had to score the ball. If Arenas is even 85% of his former self, than the Wizards will see a major improvement in year one. If Arenas returns at full throttle and the Wizards draft well, then we could see a return to relevance by year two of the John Wall era.
At the end of the day, the situation looks much brighter for the Wizards than I originally anticipated. Obviously, Miami is a problem, and will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future. However, the other three teams in the Southeast all have very noticeable flaws that could emerge over the course of the next few years. That said, here are my predictions for the Southeast shakes out over the next few years.
2011
- Orlando
- Atlanta
- Charlotte
- Washington
2012
- Miami
- Orlando
- Atlanta
- Washington
- Charlotte
2013
- Miami
- Orlando
- Washington
- Atlanta
- Charlotte
2014
- Miami
- Washington
- Orlando
- Atlanta
- Charlotte
2015
- Miami
- Washington
- Orlando
- Charlotte
- Atlanta
68 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think we wind up like Atlanta
Improving by five games every year for five years. I think we could conceivably compete with Miami when Wall, McGee, and whoever we draft (hopefully around the fifth pick) next year are hitting their prime and Miami’s core is exiting theirs. The one thing teams hoping to compete with the Heat can take solace in is that Bosh, Lebron, and Wade are all very reliant on quickness and athleticism and only Bosh is really anything more than an average shooter. Wade’s also undersized for a shooting guard, so he’ll probably age the worst. Five years from now, Lebron will be 30, Wade 33, and Bosh something like 31 or 32, I think.
Follow me on twitter - http://twitter.com/TheRealTPruitt
Wiz won't decline as fast though
ATL built aroud a late 20’s going on 30 Joe Johnson. Wiz, at least the way it looks to me, are building around a 19 year old John Wall and hopefully a 24 year old Andray Blatche. ( I say that because if Wiz are building around him, that would mean he showed last year was no fluke
A few things
Great idea, I love the post. I would have liked more options in the question (maybe you could still add another one), like playoffs this year, next year, year 3, later (or something like that).
I can’t see the Wizards surpassing the Heat in the John Wall eraWow, take off the poo-colored glasses. The Wall era could last 15 years, and he could be phenomenal. Did you mean in the next 5 years?
I’d say the Wizards 5-year projection depends more on McGee than Arenas (though both are huge question marks). Blatche was proving himself to be a pretty good PF even before he got to be the first option for 32 games — that’s actually still our most secure position until Wall proves it in some NBA games (and hopefully Arenas does too).
Good point
I should have been clearer – I can’t see the Wizards surpassing the Heat in the next five years.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
OK good
Wall will really just be starting to enter his prime in 5 years, since he was a 1 and done player.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Think about the other post...
…about role players. Assume Blatche, McGee and Wall are on the all-star team in 3 years. What else would they need to build a long-term dynasty?
The 69 Knicks won the title without overwhelming talent, but then they put together a great team in 73 that also won.
Two of the greatest seasons of any sport were the 17-0 Dolphins with Morrall subbing and the 114W Yankees with Brocius at third. Great role players, not great talent.
Arenas and Howard will work this year, but are not the long-term solution.
Mmmm
You have a lot more faith in Blatche and McGee than I do. I’d like to see an entire season of growth from McGee, and an entire season without on/offcourt incidents from Blatche before I am willing to crown them future all-stars.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
69-70 Knicks ?
I agree they were a team first.
But Walt Frazier was an overwhelming talent…
Too bad that didn’t translate to his broadcast ability.
by MR on Aug 11, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh c'mon
His incomprehensibility is AMAZING. Listening to him or Heinsohn is something you have to do at least once in your life. It’s a right of passage for any NBA fan.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Once? Fine.
But I already heard them each once and now I’m done.
Heinson is the worst announcer in any sport. Frazier and Walton are tied for second in the NBA.
And it’s not amazing, it’s clownish and embarrassing.
by MR on Aug 11, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I piss on Tommy points.
And I watch with the sound off when he’s the announcer.
by MR on Aug 11, 2010 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Walton?
He is fantastic!
Don’t lump him in with Frazier. He has soooo many amazing lines. And when he calls games where Luke plays and is extra tough on him it is pure comedy!
shine like bald head, smoke trees call me log head
The 17-0 Dolphins didnt have great talent?
are you serious? Mercury Morris? DAN FREAKIN’ MARINO??? arguably the greatest QB ever…cmon now
Dan Marino was 11 years old in 1972 when the Dolphins went 17-0.
by MR on Aug 12, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i think if ledell eackles is offered a role in the organization
we’ll surely surpass the heat in no time
by DarrellWalkerFan on Aug 11, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions
i think it can
i think wall will be even better than expected. i think gil will bounce back. i think hinrich provides great backcourt depth. i think saunders will have a better plan this year and i think we got guys who suit his desired style of play. i think with wall, gil, and blatche we were already looking at a minimum 30-35 wins. i think there are lots of things that could go our way and get us 5 more wins, which puts us in playoff contention – josh howard being one of them. our division is tough, but the eastern conference is still crap.
a smarter man than me will probably assume we’ll have injury troubles and we’re too thin, but hey.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Aug 11, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to get one board
but Blatche is the key and I am not willing to trust him with anything as of the moment.
and then DWF
remembers that he is a Wizards fan. And that hope crumbles.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
I'm not a year one playoff person
but I could see it happen, certainly. The Eastern Conference is loaded at the top, still plenty of weakness lower down, though.
Let’s stipulate that Orlando, Boston, Miami, and Atlanta are all a lock. One team from the central division gets in as well, probably Chicago.
The other three playoff spots go to who? Even if Milwaukee and Charlotte repeat, that still leaves the 8-seed. Cleveland, Indiana, and Detroit are all gonna suck. Toronto, Philly, NY, and NJ likewise.
Of that bunch, I’d say Toronto and DC are the two most-likely to have the best record. That’s not to say the Wizards will play .500 ball, or even learn to play defense. It just means that Gil at 80%, Andray as an occassional headcase, Javale scoring 12/night entirely off of lob passes, JHO playing alright, and Wall having a Derrick Rose-style 1st year (flashes, but still growing pains) is potentially a better squad than all those other awful eastern conference teams.
Or put more simply, all the teams that got better through free agency this season were in the playoffs last year, and Cleveland is a broken shell of a team. So someone is going to take their playoff spot. I don’t think the Wiz will be good for years, but they could still slip into the playoffs with a 33-49 record…
by sierradave on Aug 11, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
hold up my man
Do you really think that Toronto is going to to be similar to us in terms of winning record-wise?
The team that just lost their best player, a talented swingman in Hedo, and replaced them with Ed Davis, and Alabi, two unproven rookies. They do not have much talent on that team and are NOT going to compete for a playoff spot this year.
One team that I see building on last years improvement is Milwaukee. Jennings has another full off-season under his belt, they just added more depth with Maggette in their starting five, meaningful contributions from Drew Gooden, Salmons, Delfino/Redd off the bench. That is one DEEP squad.
After your top 6 teams (I consider Chicago a lock), the teams with the best chances are NY, and either Wash/ or even the NETS, who just acquired Troy Murphy to get a starting lineup of Murphy, Harris, Terrance Williams, Outlaw, and Lopez, with Morrow, Favors, Farmar, and Dame James off the bench. Regardless of last season’s abysmal record, I like this squad and I think they have the talent to make a huge jump this season.
It's a crapshoot, is my point
I agree that Milwaukee probably improves a bit, but they were already in the playoffs.
So let’s say that the teams with a chance right now are NY, NJ, and DC. The NY kool-aid tastes like despair. NJ… well, maybe if Favors competes for ROY and Harris returns to form, but I’ve gotta assume they’re going to have as least as many “putting all the pieces together” issues as we are.
Again, I don’t actually think we’ll be the 8th seed. It’s a long season and we’ve got a lot of guys with something to learn. I think it’ll be a long rebuild. But I also think every other lotto team from the Eastern Conference has a ton of issues as well. We’re at least as likely to string together enough wins to get there as those seven other teams.
Charlotte, sure
But again, they’ll just be holding on to their playoff spot.
I could end up surprised by Detroit, I guess. Right now they strike me as “rebuilding, and without a plan.”
I don't like Detroit's longterm outlook but
Stuckey
Hamilton
Prince
Villanueva
Maxiel
Gordon
Jerebko
Monroe
McGrady
Wallace
That team can score and defend. Certainly looks better than NY, NJ.
they stunk last year
i don’t see why this year would be any different. they should be healthier but based on how abysmal they were last season, i’m not sold.
i might put philly at a better shot of bouncing back than detroit.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Aug 12, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Starting lineup
I think the wizards have a good starting lineup.
Great post
It’s going to be very tough for anybody to be able to beat the Heat, but they too have flaws. We all know the talent they have there, but two of the most important pieces of a championship team are point guard and center. Last I checked they are loaded at the 2, 3, and 4, but they have glaring needs at PG and C. Obviously I am also thinking in Best Case Scenario, but with the steady improvement of Wall and McGee, these are the areas where we can take advantage of them. As long as we add some great defensive pieces to play team D and protect the paint, we could really take advantage of them at the point and in the paint with Blatche and McGee. Bosh wants nothing to do with lost post bangers. Hopefully by year 3 or 4, each of our two potential lanky bigs will have put on weight and are at an all-star level.
I think in the next year or two, teams with great point guards and centers will be able to compete with the Heat, that’s why I’m not crowning them a dynasty yet like most of the country is. PGs, C’s, and defense is key to winning, that’s why I still have LA, Boston, and Orlando beating them in a playoff series. They might wind up first in the East this year in the regular season, but I would still have Boston and Orlando beating them in a 7 game series because of size and defense mostly, and that Rondo kid.
by PhenomenalSwag on Aug 11, 2010 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
To beat the Heat
I think you need size. It explains why the Celtics took a flyer on Shaq, as the plan seems to be to bully the Heat inside over the course of a seven game series. I am certain that Orlando will try to do the same with Gortat/Bass/Howard.
I think that gives a hint at Ernie’s strategy into why he is bringing in tough guys and big dudes of various skill degrees. To beat the Heat, you are going to need a ton of hard fouls coming off the bench. Seraphin, Booker, Armstrong, and even Yi and N’Diaye to a degree can all be seen to fit into this vein of getting bigger.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Yup
I’m not sure that the Heat, as currently compromised, could survive a playoff run against Boston, Orlando, and the Lakers. Now the seeding might break right for them, and they might see any of those teams. But besides LeBron….Miller, Bosh, and Wade are not known for their durability.
Which brings me to another point. Bosh and Wade have never played a full season in the NBA and Miller is always dinged up. I can’t see how the pundits can possibly predict a run at 71 games when two of the big three are Faberge eggs.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
yeah i hear that
do they have their roster for this season more or less finalized yet? or are they still adding guys?
by DarrellWalkerFan on Aug 11, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If they plan on signing some of their 2nd rounders (Pittman, Varnado, Butler)
their roster is full.
Joel Anthony, Carlos Arroyo, Udonis Haslem, Eddie House, Juwan Howard, Mike Miller, James Jones, Jamal Magloire, Shavlik Randolph. That’s their bench along with their draft picks. Some decent names but I really don’t think that’s a very good team. You know there are going to be some injuries, even to Wade, Bosh, or James. With their starting PG and Center being Mario Chalmers and Z Ilgauskas, I really don’t think this team will come close to the 72-10 season the Bulls had back in the 90s like Van Gundy said.
I just think Boston and Orlando are better compiled teams, good position players 1 through 5 with a lot of size and a deep talented bench. If Wade goes down for 20 games which is a very good possibility and has happened before, this Heat team is pretty much a watered down Cavs team from the last two years.
That being said, this is a very good team, wouldn’t surprise me if they win 65, 66 games in the regular season, but I don’t see them winning in the playoffs. Bosh is no Pau, wants nothing to do with defense, couldn’t even lead the Raptors to the playoffs the last few seasons. I don’t know how he got so hyped as a franchise player, probably because he was putting up good offensive numbers for the offensively oriented-defensively challenged Raptors.
Obviously I’m anti-LeBron in every way possible, thus anti-Heat, so I’m on the Heat-Hating bandwagon all the way.
by PhenomenalSwag on Aug 11, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Keep telling yourselves that
I’ve tried to convince myself they shouldn’t win this year, but this is the most talented team I’ve ever seen in terms of how talent affects NBA team performance. Sure it’s nice to have 5 guys on the floor at once who are all really good, but in the NBA you just need two studs and a bunch of role players. They have the best two players in the league and their third fiddle is a top 15 player. The supporting cast is actually good, when you consider that they only have to play 50% of the team’s total minutes, and will be playing alongside at least one superstar all the time.
Hopefully they don’t play well together — that’s really the only hope outside of injury.
Who rebounds?
I keep hearing that Mike Miller and LBJ are above average rebounders…but who are their bigs who can get the job done. Yes, they can outscore anyone on earth, but outside of Haslem, who is going to do the necessary dirty work in the trenches? Certainly not Chris Bosh.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
It all depends on how the league decides to ref them.
If they all get the superduperstar calls they usually get then it’s all over. Call it a season.
by MR on Aug 11, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought about that
But I feel that the collective uproar if that happens will freak Stern out.
I think they’ll get calls, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Lebron and Co. weren’t a wee bit peeved at the calls they aren’t getting come playoff time.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
I don't know how it's going to shake out.
But the league is going to have to decide. Either you start breaking down the superstar call system or you allow entire rosters to foul out day after day against Miami.
Rebounding
Bosh, James and Wade can all rebound. So can Haslem. Miller scraps for boards too. They have lots of options at center, and I’m sure they’ll end up playing the guy who gives them the best defense and boards (remember everyone said Boston had a pile of stinking garbage supporting their big 3, but at least two guys out of 12 are going to be decent players). I don’t see rebounding being a major problem for them.
Agreed there
and I think with Perkins in the lineup they beat the Lakers
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Hasn't been talked about, but..
I think we can steal a game or two from the Heat this year, at least make the games competitive. The first game will probably be a big win, as it’ll be earlier in the season, but towards the middle-end of the year I assume we’ll be playing alright. And like someone before me said, our strong points are their weak points (PG, C). John Wall will absolutely wreck Arroyo/Chalmers, or if they put Wade on him then Gilbert would do the same. So the Chalmers/Arroyo + Wade tandem vs the Wall, Hinrich & Gilbert trio looks to, on paper, favor us. McGee can out jump anyone on the Heat roster (including LeBron) and would beat any of their sluggish, mediocre C’s down the court, any time down. Blatche can more than hold his own against Chris Bosh too, so that’s somewhat of a wash. Obviously LeBron would wreck any and all of our small forwards, but we’ve got a few good looks. Josh Howard and Thornton should make him at least try on defense, and Booker will certainly make him earn his points. We’ve shut down Lebron in the past with average defenders, we can definitely do it this year with Howard, Thornton (remember his defense on Melo when he came to DC?), and Booker (“grown ass man”).
I actually like the Booker-LeBron matchup
Booker won’t be able to do much of anything on offense but as long as he’s not intimidated he’s got the skill set to potentially shut down LeBron
Cocaine is a hell of a drug...
We're from the city with the highest murder rate in the country. Why WOULDN'T they call us the Bullets?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Aug 12, 2010 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions
In my opinion, holding Bron at or below 20 ppg and/or making him shoot less than 45% from the field is shutting him down. He’s just THAT good. Which we’ve done in the past with worse SF’s than we have now (excluding Caron, he was oft-injured but played well against Lebron as well).
I think maybe you should think of a new term for 20 points 45%. "Shut down" is pretty inacurate.
How about “contain” or “limit” or “slowed”
Fair enough, good point.
Sorry for not clarifying; my saying “shut down” was meant in the sense that if LeBron didnt score 20 points or he did on shooting a bad percentage, the Cavaliers most likely lost. You’re right though, those would’ve been better indicators of what I meant..
I see steady improvement...
Year 1: 50-32
Year 2: 60-22
Year 3: 70-12
Year 4: 80-2
Year 5: 81-1
by diplomaniac on Aug 11, 2010 8:55 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Who's gonna beat us in year 5?
Just a fluke loss?
The clippers
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
by Sean Fagan on Aug 12, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Well, it doesn't look like Orlando will be grabbing Chris Paul...
…as NO has essentially dealt Darren Collison for Trevor Ariza…
We're from the city with the highest murder rate in the country. Why WOULDN'T they call us the Bullets?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Aug 12, 2010 2:58 AM EDT reply actions
Those crappy contracts in Orlando won't last forever
and with those crappy contracts they’ve already become a major force the past couple of years. I think they’ve made a lot of smart moves with their limited resources over the past 3-4 years and unless that well of intelligence runs dry, they won’t decline at all in the next few years. Plus, Chris Paul is a free agent after the 2011-12 season, the same time that Carter comes off the books.
I really don’t see a slow improvement. I think we are going to see a major upgrade this year. This team is more than capable of being .500 to end the season and that would be a great step in the direction we want to go.
I think alot of people are underestimating just how promising our starting lineup is right now.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bullets Forever
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Video: Exclusive footage of the puppy Air Bud
- Video: Isaiah Thomas destroys Wesley Matthews with a block
- Ryan Gomes’ wife gets needlessly trolled on Twitter
- Jerry West wants teams with upset, trade-demanding stars to ‘call their bluff’
- Karl Malone had to buy a scalped ticket to see his former team play
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
