Quick thoughts on keeping Josh Howard
by Mike Prada on Jul 29, 2010 12:39 AM EDT
in Free Agency
127 comments
I was always intrigued by how the Wizards would handle the Josh Howard situation. In the end, they stuck to the plan and kept him on a one-year contract. In retrospect, that was a pretty obvious decision based on the way this offseason has played out. I might want to get that crystal ball fixed.
Anyway, Ernie Grunfeld and company probably made the right move here. At the end of the day, the investment is minimal and the payoff could be nice. If you take away last season, when Howard was playing out of position and with one foot out the door in Dallas, here are his career numbers (all per 36 minutes):
- 17.5 points
- 7 rebounds
- 53.2 TS% (okay, that's nothing amazing)
- 9.2% TO% (that's very good)
- 17.8 PER
- 110 Offensive Rating (again, very good)
- 62 playoff games.
- Above-average to elite defense (okay, not a stat, just an observation)
In general, I see four potential objections to this move.
1. What's the point? Why not make room for younger players?
This is the counterargument I least resonate with. The Wizards' other small forwards are Al Thornton and (maybe) Cartier Martin. We're not talking about budding stars being blocked here; we're talking about Al Thornton and Cartier Martin. As much as the Wizards may like Thornton (and for the record, I like Thornton the person even if I'm not wild about Thornton the player) the fact of the matter is that Thornton is 27 years old and has not shown a ton of improvement since he became a rookie. Martin, on the other hand, had a good Summer League, but that's it. (Oh, and I like him too, but those are the facts). These are not players you worry about blocking; these are players you stick on your roster and hope they surprise you.
I realize many want to go to a complete youth movement, but neither Thornton nor Martin (who will be 26 in November) are young players. John Wall is a young player. Andray Blatche, despite his years in the league, is a young player (he's three years younger than Martin). JaVale McGee is a young player. Al Thornton and Cartier Martin are not young players. So again, who is Howard blocking that has to be given minutes to develop as a future core piece of the team? Trevor Booker?
2. Josh Howard isn't the best locker room presence
I realize that Howard doesn't exactly have a squeaky-clean past. There was that infamous stretch in 2008 when he admitted he smoked marijuana during the playoffs (which is, whatever, but why admit it during the playoffs?), passed out invitations to a birthday party of his in the locker room during the playoffs (same deal), disrespected the national anthem and got arrested for drag racing. He also reportedly missed a game in Dallas this season because of a hangover (though let me tell you, the timing of that leak was a little too fortuitous for me to believe 100 percent).
All I'll say is this: in the short stretch where he was healthy, the team played well in part because they responded to his "we're making the playoffs" bravado. It was probably a bit silly to outsiders, but it was clear the team took after his mentality. They all played like they had a chip on their shoulder, because Howard himself had a chip on his shoulder. Now, it's probably a safe bet that wasn't going to continue going forward, but it's still worth noting.
(And, for what it's worth, John Wall likes the move. Though that may not be a good thing).
In other words - I get this argument, but it's not my primary concern. I do get it though, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
3. That cap space could have been put to better use in a BOYD trade at the deadline
Possibly. The Wizards do still have some cap space (just under $6 million), but having more could potentially have been a huge asset in February, where teams might be dumping a lot of salary. The flip side is that in Howard and Hinrich, they have two decent guys they can flip to a contender, though that'll likely involve taking back some long-term salary, since I'm guessing most teams won't be too keen on giving up decent young talent for a one-year rental.
So yeah, I get this argument too. However, this seems like more of an indictment on the Yi Jianlian trade than anything. Howard's at least a pretty capable player at a position of need. Yi, on the other hand, costs more and is significantly worse at a position the team probably doesn't need.
4. Howard isn't the best on-court fit
This is the one I worry about most. The price is too cheap and the potential payoff is too great, but for those talking playoffs right now (and yes, that starting lineup looks good on paper), consider this: who defends (especially on the interior), who rebounds and who hits open perimeter shots on this team? The previous two problems were always going to be there, but now, there is a third problem - the perimeter shooting. Only one of the Wizards' projected five starters (either Gilbert Arenas or Kirk Hinrich) hits more than 36 percent of his threes over the course of his career. The long two-pointer stats (16-23 feet) aren't much better either (via HoopData).
- Arenas: 41 percent
- Howard (in 2009): 43 percent (actually pretty decent, but a career high)
- Blatche: 39 percent (a career high)
- McGee: 14 percent
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what sharp shooters are left on the market at SF?
Adam Morrison? lol. With all the poor shooting at least McGee will get his chances for putbacks.
I love having Josh Howard for One Year,
just not THIS one year.
As someone who has a rebuilt knee from years of hoop let me tell you that first year back you don’t feel like yourself. You have no lift on your shot and your lateral quickness is gone.
You can psych yourself to run fast in a straight line, but you have no lift on your jumpshots (bye-bye-shooting percentage) and your defense suffers because your quickness is gone.
You can see this even in professionals who have pro trainers.
So what’s the point of a 1-year signing? He will either be bad this year (gaining us nothing) or he will recover near the end of the year and then we’ll have to pay through-the-nose to re-sign.
So what was the point??
thats why
I would have loved if his contract had a team option for a second year
by Meraj Chowdhury on Jul 29, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
That would have made been the reward for the risk. I don’t see much reward here since he can split if he blows up this year.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on Jul 29, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Great post
I agree about the lack of pure shooters on the team. That said, you have 5 starters who know how to drive to the rim. After watching this team settle for so many long jumpers for years (which coincidentally led to so many fast break points by opponents)- this brings a smile to my face.
Ultimately, though
If all five guys want to drive, defenses will lay off them, and they’ll just settle for shorter jumpers.
Agreed, but...
feel very comfortable that GA and JH can hit jumpers if defenders lay off them (maybe not 3s, but they will be able to hit enough shots to keep defenders honest). As much as anything else, I like that this move forces defenders to actually cover all 5 players, rather than cheat by ignoring our 3.
If the deal is around $4 million plus incentives
then it was really a no-brainer considering the team’s other options at small forward. It would be nice for guys like Thornton and Martin to get a ton of playing time, but like Prada says, they’re not young anymore and don’t necessarily deserve such treatment.
Still, Howard is coming back from a serious injury, and it’s probably not likely that he’ll be able to play huge minutes every single night. This deal is simply about the money. It made sense to bring Howard back: it’s a cheap deal, he makes the team better, and it doesn’t hamstring the team from really making any future moves. Not bad.
I just wish there was some long term benefits
Like when Mike talks about it’s about the vision not winning the trade. I kinda feel the same way about this. It could turn out to be a good deal but what does it do for building a contender? Leaves me feeling kinda blah about it.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 29, 2010 4:19 AM EDT up reply actions
News flash
This team is not going to be a contender for the next 3-4 years. Wall is 19, you can not expect him to be great consistantly. By that time Wall is 23, blatche mcgee Booker seraphin and ndiaye (if those last three stick around) will be in there mid twenties.
By then guys like howard thorton yi hinrich (and probably) arenas will be replaced with defensive, rebounding spot up shooters.
I think that we will be where the hawks or thunder are right now in about 3,4 years.
However, we could be this years Bucks and make the playoffs but i would not mind taking another lottery pick in next years draft (a 3!)
by Dutch Hoopfan on Jul 29, 2010 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions
News flash for you
This team is not going to be a contender for the next 3-4 years.
This team will be a contender in the EC by as early as 2011-2012. That’s next season.
The Thunder started from scratch and it only took them 3 years.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That is not realistic
We aren’t contending in 11-12 unless:
McGee breaks out beyond my wildest dreams or we sign an above average center
and
Arenas comes back fully healthy and committed to defense
and
Arenas adapts well at SG
and
Wall blossoms quickly
and
Blatche proves to be for real and gets his head straight
and
our rookie bigs blossom quickly
and
pigs fly
and FYI OKC isn’t a contender yet in my book. Unless you and I have different ideas about what being a contender means.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
The Wiz should win 50
and make a push for the top 4 teams in the EC in 2011-2012.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
Wall/Arenas/Hinrich possibly the best backcourt in the NBA
Blatche/McGee form a formidable front court, with either Blatche or McGee “taking the next step” and being all-star worthy.
One of Seraphin/Booker becomes a real contributor off the bench
Any one of Young, Yi, Howard, Thornton steps forward, earns a role, gets resigned.
Oh, and still $10-$15M+ of cap space
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Those are all wonderful scenaria. That's the plan. I'm hoping that's how it goes.
But the odds of that being a year off seem pretty slim to me.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell me what's so far fetched?
Blatche looked like an all-star after the trade deadline
McGee may have turned more heads than any NBA player this summer besides John Wall
Oh, and we got John Wall, who makes everyone around him better
So it seems the only major questions are is Arenas healthy and can 2 of Seraphin/Booker/Yi/Young/Thornton/Howard become real contributors.
That doesn’t seem like long odds to me.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Blatche seems like the surest bet to me this year.
McGee turned heads with his amazing athletic moves but displayed the same lack of fundamentals on both sides of the court that he always does. He also was pushed around a lot by a bunch of SL-ers. I think McGee is still a few years away.
I think you are putting too much faith in the quick development of a very young PG. But Rose looked pretty good during his second year, a fast development I’d say but bodes well for Wall.
Arena’s health as well as his ability to change positions and play defense are major questions.
Seraphin/Booker are unlikely to take a major step forward after their first year, Yi might, Young seems to be what he is by now, same with Thornton. If Howard comes back well he’ll likely be somewhere else in 11-12.
Aside from all of that I think the team would need more than one year together to gel into a contender.
If any one of those questions fall to the negative then where is your contender?
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
OK...
Yes, Blatche looks close.
McGee still has many holes and a long way to go, but he is an athletic freak who can make a significant contribution even with the shortcomings. Wall will get him 6 easy points per game and he will be disruptive blocking shots. McGee is 2-3 years from making the US National Team, but he’s alot closer to making an NBA impact.
I think you aren’t putting enough stock in the development of a young PG. Look at CP3, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose and you will see an immediate impact with a significant uptick in team wins. Unless Wall is signficantly worse as a rookie, Wall will mean a bare minimum of +10 wins.
Arenas’ health is a question, but his ablity to “change positions” is not. He’s always been a 2, he’s just been a 2 who could create. Playing next to Wall will be a blessing in disguise for him.
As for Seraphin, I’m only hoping for another Serge Ibaka. Ibaka made an impact as a rookie.
These issues/questions don’t have nearly as much risk to them as you’d think.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
So assuming all those things fall right for us
I still don’t think we’re a contender yet.
If I imagine the team you are putting forward (which I consider a perfect storm of development) then I still don’t see us being better than Miami, Orlando, Chicago in a year. Not to mention other developing teams in the East. Not to mention the entire Western Conference.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't
We this game last year? If Arenas stays healthy? If Blatche develops? If Butler can stop shot jacking… and the whole thing went in the crapper.
I’m sorry, but someone has to get numbers on a team that loses 16 straight. That was Blatche. I agree with MR, you know a contender when you see it. This isn’t a contender. It’s a lottery team.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Fair enough, but..
that means that 2 starters have to be as good as in there best days while coming off injuries-suspension, 2 starters need to have a breakout year and our rookie pg needs to have a ROY year. All at once. Its possible, but i think thats a bit much.
You are probably wright on the second unit scenario and the cap space though.
by Dutch Hoopfan on Jul 29, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
There isn't even going to be a season in 11-12
So, hell, maybe you’re right about them being a contender that year.
Also
OKC grabbed Green in the same draft as Durant, then parlayed two lousy years and a WHOLE lot of BOYD into the team they have now. Which is why I thought that full BOYD and a total demolition of this team is the way to go.
I know this point has been brought up in several other threads, but we are in the Southeast. With four other playoff teams in front of us. It’s going to be a heck of a climb back up the mountain.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
i hear ya, but gil makes that difficult, dudn't he?
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 29, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
No doubt
We certainly have more of a contractual albatross hanging around our neck than OKC ever did. And since the ship has sailed on BOYD, I need to come around to to the philosophy of high risk/low investment acquisition.
I think Ernie has done some interesting things this offseason. My main concern, which I have yet to be dissuaded from, is that he sees things in players that no other GM/scout/fan has yet to witness? Why Yi? Why Armstrong? They don’t make any sense to me as acquisitions from the sheer fact that all hard evidence has pointed to the fact that they are stiffs….
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
yi is the next pecherov or gadzuric
ernie does have a penchant for acquiring mediocre big men. but hey – it fills out a roster – nba big men are expensive!
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 30, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right
I would definitely prefer a move to cheap big men with a different skill set, like defense or positional rebounding. N’Diaye was a move in the right direction in my opinion. Maybe Armstrong is as well.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
I still don't see how the OKC rebuilding project has to do with ours
Arena’s contract up until the Joe Johnson deal was the worst contract in the NBA. So it just seems like we are chasing fools gold when ever we bring up Presti and the OKC rebuild.
Now if someone takes arenas then im on board for a complete rebuild but more than likely that is not going to happen and I feel that our rebuilding arc would trend more with what Morey is doing in Houston or how the Lakers built around Kobe. In no way am I saying that Gil is Kobe but when you have a huge immovable salary on your cap you have to get creative with how you acquire assets. `
Morey was very savvy in the draft but he also does a great job of keeping his cap hit very short. In other words he keeps his contract really short and/or the players are young trade able assets.
I can see that
But Morey still fleeced the Knicks into innumerable draft picks. He has also drafted extremely competently. Two things that I haven’t seen Grunfeld do as of late. (Note: Jury is out on 2010 draft)
OKC could be a false argument, but I also think we as fans of a particular team spend a lot of time overvaluing our own assets. I’m not sure Blatche carries as much value as we think he does if he couldn’t fetch DJ Augustine at the trade deadline next year. Nick Young could probably be had by anyone, but there doesn’t seem to be a market.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
I agree EG is no Morey
but I just feel like that is where we should be aiming as far as rebuilding goes. We all had hopes about BOYD but I believe the board is coming to the realization that this is only a half re-build as long as Gil is around.
At least every year we can start the season talking playoffs before it blows up in our face.
Absolutely
I think positive thinking is great. I’m just not sure that I’m seeing the pieces are quite in place where I feel safe discussing 8th seed without someone questioning how much I have been imbibing,
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
why is it false?
OKC didn’t burn it to the ground immediately. They had vets like Damien Wilkins, Nick Collison, Earl Watson and other former Sonics mixed in.
The first wave was Durant and Green. SF, PF
Second was Westbrook, DJ White, and Kyle Weaver. PG, PF, G
Third was Harden, Ibaka and Mullens. SG, F/C, C
I'm giving room by saying that it could be a false argument
I think ccrun’s point is right in that OKC didn’t have as untradeable piece as Arenas on their roster at the time of demolition. However, I still think BOYD was a pursuit that should have been explored further at the beginning of the offseason.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Hopefully at some point
people will remember that Gilbert Arenas is a good basketball player and not just a contract.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 30, 2010 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions
True. The demolition began before the team reached OKC
When Presti traded Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis before the team left Seattle. If I’m not mistaken, they drafted Jeff Green and Durant during that same offseason when they traded Allen and Rashard Lewis. They also appeared to be willing to stink for a season or two. Where EG and the Wizards seem intent on being competitive while they build. I just disagree with playing a vet if he is not in your long term plans, when you could be letting a young guy take his lumps and learn. The Seattle / OKC team had two straight 20 win seasons before they won 50 last season. Seems like 2 seasons of learning on the job – combined with some good personnel moves.
Follow me on twitter - http://twitter.com/CJ_202SB
by CJ Hempfield on Jul 30, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
The Wizards have a vision
And the pickup of Howard fits very much with their vision, which is to build with a young core of players (Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, Young, etc.), and surround them with some solid vets that know how the game of NBA basketball is played (Arenas, Hinrich, Howard) and can influence the young core.
That vision has been articulated by them over and over in recent months, and this pickup definitely fits into that mold.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jul 29, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Truthfully
I wish we could have resigned Singleton…I think he would have been a good vet to get. His hunger for rebounding and toughness he brings could have been helpful to the front court (he would have been better then signing Hilton). Another thing, have you noticed Grunfeld has a penchant of acquiring players “that got away”. Two good examples are Hilton and Al Thorton. These are players Ernie wanted in their respective drafts but didn’t have a high enough pick. I guess you can say Kirk is another one as well.
by Meraj Chowdhury on Jul 29, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
And I’m not sure I like that.
Another thing, have you noticed Grunfeld has a penchant of acquiring players "that got away". Two good examples are Hilton and Al Thorton. These are players Ernie wanted in their respective drafts but didn’t have a high enough pick. I guess you can say Kirk is another one as well.
I chalk it up rather as an inability (unwillingness?) to adjust an early scouting report.
It appears that EG makes up his mind about a player and keeps that opinion even when evidence starts pointing in another direction.
Mrs. Grunfeld must get nervous every time Ernie goes to a high school reunion.
’Cause Ernie is looking to score with all the girls he struck out with back then.
by disgrunted on Jul 29, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
That means
We are getting Quincy P. in a few years. Lock that down!
by Meraj Chowdhury on Jul 29, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
For example, I might rather have Singleton and Ross on the roster than Yi Jianlian, but I’m sure there were other factors involved in that trade, even if the Wizards won’t admit it.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jul 29, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Well one factor
is that Ross sucks. Another is that Yi may be an opportunity away from a breakout. He is still young (whether you believe he is 22 or 25 as some believe his age to be) in big man terms…
Totally agree
In the 4 games Howard played in last year, he showed agressiveness and determination that rubbed off on the rest of the players at the time, and was paying off when the team went 3-1 (almost 4-0) during that stretch. When he got injured, the team’s attitude went back to status quo.
Will be interesting to see how the veterans come together and attempt to get all the young guns on the same page…
by TheRealBigMike on Jul 29, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the "4 game" thory is a red herring.
There were several new hungry hustle players on the team at the same time. In addition the holdovers were energized by the change in team chemistry and a possible avenue to more minutes.
To chalk it all up to Howard seems inaccurate to me.
Good post, good deal...
Now the Wizards have a legitimate, proven SF on the roster. Ok there are a lot of asterisks, but the upside is clear: If his knee is right, Josh Howard 2010/11 will give this team at least as much presence at the 3 as Caron Butler 2010/11 will give Dallas or whoever.
Howard...
..is a better fit than Thorton at the 3. But it puts more pressure on McGee and Blatche to hold their own on the defensive boards. Maybe Wall will end up challenging Rondo on the number of rebounds by a guard.
I'm not happy with this deal
But:
- It’s one year and fairly cheap (is it $4 mill. PLUS incentives, or including incentives?). At least Ernie limited the damage.
- He’s a tradeable piece.
- He plays defense. Hopefully that will rub off.
- I’m wondering whether the Wizards said to Howard, “Since you got injured on our team, if you can’t find anything else, we’ll give you a one year deal.” If so, that’s a class move, and I have no objections.
The Negatives:
- You’ve got a young team, and now the veterans on the team are Hinrich (doesn’t talk much), Arenas and Howard. For your veteran team leaders on a young team you are trying to mold, you choose Arenas and Howard?? This is my biggest problem with the deal.
- Ernie failed at getting a promising SF.
- What this deal says about Ernie — i.e., not especially committed to or skilled at bringing in young talent.
- Although folks correctly point out that Howard is a good player, the team is rebuilding, so he is not part of that effort. Lost is the opportunity to get a younger player to grow with the core of the team for one year.
- Blocks the development of Thornton and Booker at SF.
Best spin: The Wizards have their eye on a SF free agent next season, and are using Howard as a placeholder.
Your last point is extremely relevant....
The 2010-11 Wizards needed a more credible SF. If the knee is OK, Howard is that guy.
And Mike, I don’t see any downside in John Wall tweeting that he likes this signing… If the guys light up once or twice together over the next few weeks, it won’t be the end of the world.
Def think
they go into the 2011 draft looking for a SF. Harrison Barnes might be too much to ask for, but the conversation starts with him regardless. Vesely sounds like a Jerebko type F.
I don’t see a problem in building in stages. Ernie just picked up a starting quality player for 1 year, 4M. The guy plays with a chip on his shoulder and loves to defend. I’m glad to have him back.
I think it starts with the vet minimum (1mil?) and gets up to 4 when he plays
So if he doesnt play, nothing lost nothing gained
If he plays a litte, nothing lost, little gained
If he plays a lot he must be doing good so then he’s worth the money
by Dutch Hoopfan on Jul 29, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you explain this to me?
e reward could be nice
What is our potential reward besides watching a decent player this year? If he plays well we have to either pay market value or lose him next year. I don’t see the upside to this deal.
I'll try...
Wall now has an experienced SF to work with, a player who could give Wall opportunites for 3-5 apg. You can’t say that about Thornton, and Booker is a project at the 3.
If Howard is playing well by February and the team looks playoff bound, great. If he is playing well and the team is heading for the lottery, then he can be dealt to a playoff contender for a younger asset or draft pick.
One can argue back and forth over whether Howard’s four-game pre-knee stint as a Wizard last year was meaningful. But it did seem like the younger Wizards of 2009-10… Young, Blatche and McGee… were energized and motivated by his all-out play. Given what had come before, that is important, I think.
Josh Howard is a man with something to prove, and I am pretty pleased that he is getting a chance to prove it in the Wizards 5 uniform.
I see your points
but they don’t hold a lot of water for me.
I don’t think he’ll be worth much at the deadline.
I don’t love him as a player for the young guys to emulate, although I do like his hustle style and hustle is contagious.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Emulation is part of it, but I also think it’s about having players that can execute. In the past couple years, the Wizards have often looked sloppy in the way the play, most often when the less experienced players are on the court. Sloppiness is contagious, just as good execution and hustle are.
For the sake of Wall’s development, I’d much rather he be on the court with players that can execute the offense and defense properly.
Whether a starting lineup of Wall-Arenas-Howard-Blatche-McGee will be solid in their execution is another question! But I do believe Howard is potentially a step in the right direction versus leaving that position up to Thornton, Young & Booker.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jul 29, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
My (limited) impression
is that execution is not Howard’s forte. He seems like more of a hustle/garbage points player to me. I don’t think he had a lot of plays called for him in Dallas, although my first hand knowledge is limited.
I haven’t watched him enough to know either, so you may be right.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jul 29, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
The parallels between Howard and Arenas are eerie
I hope both are ready to play.
The concern about floor spacing is legit; I hope all of these guys put some time into their shot before the season begins. For Howard, that may prove more difficult, given the injury. In fact, it seems like a pretty short turn-around for an injury of that type.
Two things
1) I wish we had a second year team option
2)Nick Young has some perimeter scoring ability as well (off the bench).
by Meraj Chowdhury on Jul 29, 2010 9:09 AM EDT reply actions
I expect Arenas may do less slashing this year
It struck me that he was noticeably slower and less successful at getting contact last year. While I love Gil, he can be a little lazy even on offense. I suspect he might jack up a ton of threes next year.
If he steps more into that role, and especially when he’s on the bench and Heinrich is playing, that means that Howard and Wall should both get their opportunities to drive and kick out. I think the spacing will need work, but not that we’re facing something disastrous.
I also think having a 3 who can play will be huge for Wall’s development. I think it would be way worse for him to have someone who’s thoroughly professional but can’t score. Then he’s learning not to trust his players. And if Wall is going to the Hall of Fame some day, it’s probably going to be for his 30 assist games and not for his 70 point games.
by Elvin_is_my_Elvis on Jul 29, 2010 9:39 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
It was hyperbole
I’ll settle for 28 assist games
by Elvin_is_my_Elvis on Jul 29, 2010 10:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Just thinking about that for a minute
If a team scores 100 points, maybe 25 come from free throws. Maybe 5 three pointers. So that leaves 35 FGs. You gotta figure at least 5 are putbacks/tip-ins. That is 30 possible assistable FGs.
You know Skiles also had 22 points and 6 rebounds that game? Amazing. Too bad it didn’t go into OT.
I’m confused by some of the comments that I am reading on here. People are complaining about this signing because they don’t believe it fits the vision and that this is going to block players from developing. Does anybody really think Al Thornton is going to be a perennial all-star? He had opportunities to showcase his talent and he was very inconsistent and erratic with his play. He is not a starting SF in this league right now. To add to this, THIS IS A ONE YEAR DEAL!!!!! This is not a lifetime commitment. Didn’t Grunfield say repeatedly, that this team is in no hurry to spend money this year? So next year this team will still be in the same position to get a SF and have more money to do so with the other salaries coming off. This is a player that has been an all-star that is coming at a price similar to any other decent FA SF out there, so what’s the problem? Yes he won’t spread the floor but who can you get that is better than J. Ho. at that price?
by ThePGPhenomenon on Jul 29, 2010 10:09 AM EDT reply actions
People are complaining about this signing because they don’t believe it fits the vision and that this is going to block players from developing
On the contrary, I don’t think ANYONE has complained about either of these. Perhaps I missed something in this thread.
I don’t think anyone hates this trade, especially since it is an inexpensive one year deal.
I think my main complaint is that at best it is a one year bargain and I don’t really care if we win a few extra games this year (maybe later in the year I’ll be singing a different tune if everything comes together perfectly). The long term benefits of this deal are lost to me. Some argue that having a player like Howard will aid Wall’s development, but I think that is marginal at best. Perhaps his hustle rubs off on the team a little bit. Perhaps his knuckleheadedness (alleged) rubs off on the team a little bit. I think if you weren’t a hustle player or a knucklehead to begin with then a year of exposure won’t change your stripes. It has some slight limiting effect on our flexibiliity. It adds a player that could possibly (doubt it) be an asset at the deadline.
Add all that up and I come up with mostly a shrug with a slight dislike for the trade. Seems like that’s close to the majority reaction.
To be fair
I said the vision thing. What long term benefits come from this deal? If he plays well all we get in the long term is the right to pay market value for him next summer which we could have done no matter who he played for this year. Bird rights are meaningless when we will be so far under the cap anyways. So in terms of Long Term vision what is the upside? In that sense it’s low risk low reward.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 29, 2010 11:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, from a long-term perspective, it’s probably a low-risk, low-reward signing.
But not every decision is soley about long-term vision. This signing is about finding a decent player for Wall and others to play with next season. They could’ve signed Howard to a longer contract, but that would be too high risk given his recent injury history. Shelling out long, expensive contracts to one of the other free agent SFs that were available this offseason may have also been risky. Leaving the position to be shared by Thornton, Young & Booker also has its drawbacks.
If you absolutely must think long-term (let’s not forget there are more games to play in a few months), then perhaps the team will be better off years from now if next season they are able to more effectively shed the losing culture that had developed in the org in recent seasons. This team has to learn how to win at some point.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jul 29, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Moves that have long term benefits get a thumbs up
Moves with only short term benefits get a shrug at least from me. I know we have games in a few months. It’s too bad Howard won’t be ready to play in the ones that begin the season. While he is a better player this doesn’t really do much more for me than signing Armstrong or getting Yi.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 29, 2010 12:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This is pretty much what this signing is
A Shrug. But with the silly season upon us and no real games to distract every move has to be dissected to its most base level.
The one point that everyone is missing at least for me is that in a team game you get better when you play with people who are better than you. Before Josh Howards knee injury there is no doubt in my mind that he was a better player than John Wall.
by ccrun1800 on Jul 29, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"[Y]ou get better when you play with people who are better than you."
This is especially true for point guards. You want to surround a budding point guard with players who know how to move purposefully without the ball. Josh Howard qualifies. Nick Young and Al Thornton (and their low bball IQs) do not. Neither do most rookies, but especially not a player who is just learning the position, like Trevor Booker.
I agree
Another benefit (or drawback to some) is that you potentially win more games. I’m of the opinion that, in a rebuilding situation (especially when your key pieces are mostly already in place), winning is the best way to build a winner, lottery position be (almost) damned. I’m also of the opinion that losing begets losing (with the obvious caveat of the talent infusion from high draft position, but OTOH that doesn’t guarantee future wins…). It costs more to lose than it does to win, if you ask me.
So more talent is a good thing, as long as acquiring that talent does not hamper the rebuild.
HE also does well
when you put athletes around him. The issue with booker is that he is a true banger 4. But he also has a nice stroke from the outside. The Wiz seem to be working him from outside in instead of inside out. This strategy entails him to learn how to drive in (and in turn ball handling skills). Now if you set him free and do his thing (dirty work inside and just run on the wings on the fast break) he may not look lost as much.
by Meraj Chowdhury on Jul 29, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Silly Season
that’s the best way to describe many of the complaints about this signing.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Long Term Benefits
Geez. You know what the best thing for the development of John Wall (and Blatche and McGee)? Learning how to win and getting a taste of the NBA playoffs. You have to get to the playoffs and lose before you can get to the playoffs and win. Grunfeld’s has stocked the roster with young talent AND put together a team that can go to the playoffs at the same time. Howard came way under market value and on a 1 year contract heavy with incentives. As Mike noted above, “on its face, it’s a steal.” Some of the “armchair GMs” around here need to step back from the keyboard. Outside of Pat Riley, it’s difficult to pick an NBA executive who has had a better 6 month run than Ernie.
If Howard plays well we’ll have the opportunity to re-sign him at market value, but if he looks to be as good a fit in Flip’s offense as he did for 4 games, then it would be worth considering. Because Josh Howard WANTS TO BE HERE. He had other opportunities with contenders and wanted to stay. When’s the last time that happened to this franchise?
If Howard becomes what he’s been for his career (as Mike listed above) and he’s a fit, then the Wiz will have a very good small forward who WANTS to be here and will probably be willing to sign for the money we get from renouncing say Yi and Thornton. So like all the other players who are not under contract for 2011, Ernie gets a 1 year look at Howard with no long term risk.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
He had other opportunities with contenders and wanted to stay.
Who made him an offer and for how much? I didn’t follow it closely but I’m curious.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
We offered him more money than he could have gotten from a contender
But your totally right he is just overcome with loyalty for the team that declined to pick up his option costing him 7M. So Howard puts in the playoffs? A Guy coming back from a serious injury, who is incredibly fragile anyways? We took a flier on a guy who is auditioning for a contract from another team. You say we get to resign him at market value, you do realize we could do that no matter which team he plays for this season? I also don’t understand why you say he came under market value. He’s hurt and won’t be able to play at the beginning of the season, his reputation is poor, he’s always injured. Those things depress market value. I think he got generous market value.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 29, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh yes
1 year, $4M based on incentives for a guy who was an all-star as recently as Caron Butler is way under market value.
But it seems obvious that you want to cast every move in a negative light. Have a nice offseason and don’t hurt yourself trying to jump on the bandwagon that will start rolling in October.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
How is the top $ offer “under market”? Isn’t the market defined by the offers?
Add to the equation that he was badly injured, is aging, a possible problem off the court, and would only sign for one year because he’ll be fielding other offers next summer. And I guess you come up with $4mil per year.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
If I look hard enough,
I’m sure I can find lots of problems with John Wall too.
Assuming everything goes wrong (which seems to be your assumption), then the Wiz won’t pay much (he won’t reach incentives), younger players will get playing time and Howard and the Wiz part ways at the end of the season.
Get it? There is no downside to this.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Every time I request you to back up one of your statements you change the subject.
I asked what deals Howard passed up so that he could stay. I’m sure there must have been some and you seem to know of them so please tell me.
I don’t have a big problem with the Howard deal. I have a little problem, but it elicited mostly a shrug from me. I don’t really see much upside or downside.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
We don't know that he got any
but Chicago, Cleveland and Boston were said to have “serious interest”. He probably didn’t get any offers because none were in the ballpark that would make him consider leaving the Wizards. What difference does it make? Had he wanted to pursue them, the guy had options.
He’s got a career PER of 17.8. You don’t find that available at $4M for 1 year in a player who WANTS to be there.
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That's funny
Considering I spent most of yesterday putting the KH-seraphin trade in a positive light. I root for the Wiz as hard as anyone. Just cuz I don’t agree with some of your increasingly hyperbolic statements doesn’t mean I am a negative person. Most people on this site don’t agree with you. Next time try rebutting the point instead of ignoring reality. Name one team that offered him more money than us. He wasn’t considered worth 11M when healthy. Since then his image suffered, and he suffered a huge injury that will cost him games this season and cemented his status as injury prone. Not to mention no team has any idea what kind of player to expect as he won’t be 100% this season.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 29, 2010 2:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Super
I’m not worried about how many people agree with me. No one agreed with me on draft night either but in retrospect it sure looks like I was one of the few seeing the forrest for the trees.
I don’t know what reality I’m ignoring. It’s a 1 year incentive laden contract for a former, recent all-star. I put zero stock in his “off the court” issues just as put zero stock in Arenas being a “locker room problem”.
I appreciate that his market value was hurt by his knee injury. Hence, 1 year incentive laden contract at less than half of what he made last season. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t matter since the Wizards aren’t contending this year and have nothing tied up in him going forward.
What am I missing? What is the downside to this?
by JonathanJoseph on Jul 29, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok
Sorry to step in here, but …
1. This is not about being right. Nobody here cares who is right – the second we start to keep score in any way, shape or form is when we fall apart. People do not visit this site to be right. So please, stop referring back to being right or wrong or telling people they are “right” or “wrong.”
2. In fact, nobody is right, because no games have been played.
3. The downside to the Howard move is everything that was written in this post and in the comments. If you don’t agree with that downside, that’s fine, but then just say “I don’t agree.” Please don’t pretend like it doesn’t exist.
4. For the last time (I hope), there comes a point where reasonable people just need to disagree and move on. You’ve reached that point, so please, there’s no need to keep repeating yourself.
In general, I think it would be better if everyone here tries as hard as possible to consistently use the phrases “I think that” or “I disagree” or “I agree.” That makes for more respectful conversation. Lord knows we don’t do this all the time, and it happens, but let’s at least strive for that.
I think Boston was rumored to be interested in him
I’m not sure that he ever received an offer.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Boston couldn't offer much
They’re over the cap and burned their MLE on Jermaine O’Neal. The best they could hope for is a sign and trade, and those have to be for 3 years minimum. Howard probably wanted to rebuild his value before committing to a crappy long term deal.
The only reports of interest came from Howards Agent
and him going to a capped out team was always a pipe dream as they had no money to offer him and all sign and trades need to be for atleast 3 years. There is seemingly no evidence that he had legit offers or that he turned down more/similar money from other teams to come here. I think he got a good deal considering he is a completely unknown commidity considering there is no way to tell how many games he plays and at what strength he will be at for those games. We didn’t sign the career PER of 17.5 Josh Howard. We signed a complete unknown. The deal leaves me with a shrug.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 30, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Acording to a NBA.com article, his agent said that four or five teams offered him only 1 year at the vet minimum of $1.3M and those teams were likely looking at him getting approximately 20 min per game. The Wiz were offering more money and the chance to start and see significantly more minutes.
Follow me on twitter - http://twitter.com/CJ_202SB
by CJ Hempfield on Jul 30, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Forget long term
this is a one year deal for the purposes of not being terrible. They don’t want to start off the John Wall era by losing 60 games.
Very few perfect deals
As a GM you are constantly making imperfect deals. It’s knowing which sacrifices and compromises to make. This one is imperfect too, but probably above average.
A better deal would have been one for a younger SF that could be part of the core, but I can only assume that EG didn’t like any of the younger SFs on the market (at the price they would have commanded) enough to think they could be part of the core.
It does appear that defense is a priority and that’s good culture-wise for the future.
I’d also say that this move is a signal that Ted wants to put together a competitive team and not just accumulate as many lotto picks as possible from sucking. But who knows. I’m not sold this team is going to the playoffs with JVM at center no matter how good the other four spots are.
I’m with Mike. I don’t love this deal, but I don’t hate it either.
Mike thanks for being balanced in your analysis
Seems like there’s a lot of ‘its not the perfect roster move so it sucks’.
With all due respect I've not heard "it sucks" from a single post on this thread. Or the other JHo thread.
I’ve seen 2 “I don’t like it”, a bunch of “I don’t get it/shrug”, a lot of “I like this move” and a few “I love it”.
Not to be petty, but just to make sure I searched for the word “suck” on both threads and found nothing relating that word to this deal.
by MR on Jul 29, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh, no, there is not
Look, we as a community need to start doing a better job of identifying people’s positions, respecting them and understanding that there are shades of grey. Stop arguing. Start discussing. Stick to the issues and stop making comments about each other.
truthfully
I have been on many boards…and this one compares to one of the better ones. People here are a lot more respectful then most…(newcomer)
by Meraj Chowdhury on Jul 29, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
that's because mike tries hard to keep it that way
and that’s the way most of us here like it
i think he went a little hard on jones-y there, but he was in the mode i suppose.
and btw, i am ALWAYS right, except when i am wrong. (j/k)
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 29, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah he kicked my butt...
Anyhow my above post was in reference to those comments when they do arise, and not specifically limited to this or any other thread; and they do arise. A lot. They’re absent in the Howard thread, and that’s the exception.
For the most part I engage in civil debate. I’ve been in the wrong here before, but please don’t take your frustrations out on me Mike. I was trying to compliment your work.
Mike
I think you and the other editors are going to need to step in occasionally and suspend, ban, delete comments, etc. from a couple posters here who poison the well from time to time. Most of the time the discussions on this blog are great. Once in a while, however, a few characters turn the discussions into something that most of us don’t want to participate in. I know that personally once a topic is tainted by these sorts of arguments, I no longer click on the topic to follow the discussion or add my comments. Kind of like leaving the room at a party once the resident a-hole arrives.
And it’s unfair that this discussion is being prompted by a comment from jones-y, because he certainly isn’t one of the characters I’m referring to.
We'll see
Any calls for banning/deleting should be private to my e-mail or any other site editor’s e-mail. I just wanted to step in so we’re all clear here.
operation rebuild gilbert has officially commenced
it consists of a single phase:
1) be GOOD next year.
ps – i kind of miss the days back when we signed gil and we had an awful team (pre-stackhouse for jamison trade) and gil was promising playoffs. i want to see that swagger back – (but channeled the right way). (and then i can start getting annoyed with him again simply for taking too many bad shots rather than dragging our entire franchise down)
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 29, 2010 3:47 PM EDT reply actions
Sign Singleton and look at the depth chart...
A lot of ifs but a team that could excite the fans, build for the future and maybe sneak into the playoffs this year as well:
1- Wall, Hinrich, Arenas, Hudson
2- Arenas, Hinrich, Young, Hudson
3- Howard, Thornton, Martin, Young, Booker
4- Blatche, Yi, Seraphin, Booker, Singleton
5- McGee, Seraphin, Singleton, Yi
Howard
Howard was once a great player. Butler and Howard are the same age and you can really see a difference in the arcs of their careers. Howard is an old 30. I would not have been very happy to see the 5th pick traded for Howard. Better than Miller and Foye? Perhaps in hindsight. In hindsight they shouldn’t have drafted Pecherov. I think Howards role is what he is best at, a defender. Everyone blathers on about offensive numbers, but its very obvious that defense is where the Wiz are going to win if they do. So Foye and Miller made sense as perimeter defenders which is what Grunfeld said last year. The player to watch is Nick Young. Why would the Wiz pick up his option if he isn’t somewhere in their plans? They could have traded him for a future second round pick. if nothing else. This is one reason I just don’t think arenas is in their future anymore than Howard really is. Or Hinrich. They’re bridge players to improve the Wiz over the next season and thats it. If Howard is any good someone is going to offer him more money than Wiz are going to and if he isn’t any good then he is gone. Hinrich is a thade piece like Arenas. The Wizards look like they are going to have 4 rookies on their team with more to come next season with plenty of money to work with. This is why this Howaard thing isn’t a bid deal. This is a player who is going to have his knee drained after eveery game. How much of a factor is he going to be? Maybe they want him working with Booker on his defense? Who really thinks that the Wiz are really going to make a playoff run this year? Maybe they’ll get the chance to lose to Cleveland in the first round again this year. Maybe it will be Jamison whispering in Arenas’ ear as he is about to shoot those crucial game 7 free throws and maybe Arenas will miss again. The point is all this yammering about Hinrich and Howard is silly. Ther are player coaches for a season to help develop their younger players as these players transition themselves into the NBA. Anyone who has these dreams of an Arenas and Wall playing one on one with Mcgee and Blatche playing a couple playing a couple of Haywoods while Al Thorton and Josh Howard set up for 3 points shots from the corner is the kind of team I imagine.
Two cents
One of the things that bothers me about this signing is that it might move us into that dreaded 12-13 lottery territory next year, which is about a year earlier than I would have wished. On paper, the signing makes us slightly better than NJ, Toronto, Detroit, and Indiana. I think everyone else is a bit better, unless Charlotte dramatically slides and Philadelphia underachieves once again.
At the end of the day, the goal of the GM is to put more butts in the seats, and I think the signing does just that. I’m not worried about blocking Thornton, he is what he is, but I am worried about that Thornton has too much of the Blatche “I need to be starting” in him to be effective as a sub. But, it also removes the possibility of playing Yi as a SF, so that’s a blessing
It should be a fun team to watch, but by no means a playoff team unless our front line magically gels overnight.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Also, not to temper the enthusiam
But I see the talk of playoffs as premature. I think when one is considering a playoff team, you are considering questions like ’who do we add as the 3 point specialist?" Or “who is the lock down defender that we need?”
RIght now, we have one identifiable piece to build around. John Wall. Personally, I would like to see another viable piece added before I start entertaining ideas of playoff games at the Phonebooth.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
dunno
were we asking “who do we add as the three point specialist” to this team?
gil steve
larry juan
jared
antawn michael
brendan etan
just throw the ball out there and let ’em play. i think wall might be better than expected.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 30, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Wall has the chance to be something special
and if all breaks right this year, then yes, maybe we could be a playoff team. But everything would need to break perfectly.
I think most casual NBA observers know what an automatic playoff team is, and identifies the minor tweaks that go towards building a contender. For example, I think it’s one of the primary reasons that San Antonio gets so much praise, since they built such a longterm core, they could spend most of their time identifying role players for their system like Mason et al.
I don’t know if we are even withing two years of discussing “what role player” suits the Wiz best. I think we were last year when we added Miller and Foye.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
not saying it's automatic by any means
we very well might be more like this team
gil brevin steve
larry jarvis juan
jerry jared
kwame christian
brendan etan
back then we probably still had hopes for kwame.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 30, 2010 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that particular team is a great comparison
So one would hope that Ernie could turn Arenas into something else, much like he turned Jerry into Antawn.
I always like “little things” players, which is why my favorite players have been Songalia, AD, and Ruffin. Looking at this team, and the past Wizards team you listed, there aren’t a lot of “little things” players listed, with the exception of Hinrich and possibly Laettner.
The artist formerly known as ledellforlife.
Boston really couldn't offer much
They’re over the cap and burned their MLE on Jermaine O’Neal. The best they could hope for is a sign and trade, and those have to be for 3 years minimum. Howard probably wanted to rebuild his value before committing to a crappy long term deal.
I still can't pick a side on this one
On the one hand, I agree that Josh Howard isn’t going to be a part of the next Wizards contending team. We aren’t contending next year, and if Howard plays well, he will walk because we can’t afford to dump our money on him. I also don’t like that this could hurt our draft position, and yes that’s a serious statement
On the other hand, we definitely got a great value in Howard, the Wall era will now not be unbearably bad for whatever that is worth (maybe help his development), and Howard will make this team extremely entertaining personality-wise between Young Sushi, Gil, and him.
On the whole though, you either want to be awful or great in sports, not in the middle, and I feel as though this move makes us too much of a middling team (fringe playoff team). I hate to give up, but if Howard costs us a few draft slots then isn’t this wrong? Leonsis knows that you really have to be committed to bottoming out, like he did with the Caps, and Howard is a good player that doesn’t quite fit the youth movement. In 3 years, this would probably be a home run signing, but in a rebuilding year, pretty pointless other than for our off-court entertainment.
I know we can trade him, but with no contract after this season, I find it hard to believe that he will have much value at the deadline given his past. If we can spin him into a pick or young player, then I feel a lot better about this.
howard is a steal.....
….compared to most of the other signings this offseason.
3 points
NOW THAT MILLER IS GONE, % WISE NICK IS THE BEST 3 POINT SHOOTER ON THE TEAM.
straight talk
by Mae.jude@yahoo.com on Jul 30, 2010 3:34 PM EDT reply actions
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