Even with John Wall, re-signing Shaun Livingston should be a high priority
by Mike Prada on Jun 8, 2010 3:59 PM EDT
in Free Agency
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PrintAs I understand it, there are two major arguments against keeping Shaun Livingston this summer:
1. With John Wall at point guard and Gilbert Arenas coming back, we don't need Shaun anymore.
2. He'll command too much money for someone who has such a long injury history. (I question this, but I'll leave that argument out of this post).
Both those arguments are understandable, on a theoretical level. Why go too far into our cap space for a bench player that plays the same position as our franchise cornerstone? Why risk a long-term contract on a guy with that kind of injury history? Why let two months of great play (if that) overshadow the rest of Livingston's career?
But in my opinion, they also kind of miss the point when it comes to Livingston's importance. I realize I'm treading into the dreaded "but he has great intangibles!" argument, one I like to avoid a lot. But I also think Shaun Livingston is a special case where they make a real difference. A difference that makes re-signing him extremely important, even with the two caveats listed above.
I'll try to explain - and quantify what I'm suggesting - below the jump.
Shaun Livingston's end of the season statistics were pretty damn impressive, to be sure. In 26 games with the Wizards, Livingston averaged 13 points and 6.2 assists/36 minutes while posting a 14.4 PER and a 58.2% true shooting percentage. Those are really great numbers who uses as few possessions as Shaun does. But even I realize that it's hard to imagine Livingston shooting that well again. Shooting percentages are a bit flukey, and Livingston's shooting was so out of line with what he was doing even when healthy.
But there's no denying this fact: Livingston's presence made many of the other players on the team better. In particular, our three young players that have been sharply criticized over the years: Andray Blatche, Nick Young and JaVale McGee. For most of the year, those three were drifting, not showing the kind of improvement we all hoped to see. Blatche certainly started off well, and showed more than he had in previous seasons, but he also saw his production take a hit and his attitude suffer a bit. McGee was buried on the bench, while Young went in and out of the rotation. But by the end of the year, all three looked a lot better than they did at the beginning of the season, and while there are many reasons for that (playing time, individual development, etc), Livingston deserves a lot of credit for setting a good example with his work ethic and for getting them the ball in the right spots.
To illustrate this, check out those three players' numbers with and without Livingston on the team. (Note: I'm using the 25-game mark instead of the 26-game mark because that coincides directly with October-February vs. March-April. Also, Livingston barely played in his first game, so I think it's ok).
Andray Blatche before Shaun joined the team: 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists on 49.4% shooting in just under 24 minutes per game.
Andray Blatche after Shaun joined the team: 20.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists on 46.1% shooting in 36.5 minutes per game.
Nick Young before Shaun joined the team: 7.2 points, 1.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists on 40% shooting and 42% shooting from three-point range in 16.9 minutes per game.
Nick Young after Shaun joined the team: 11.4 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists on 44.2% shooting and 38.4% from three in 23.7 minutes per game.
JaVale McGee before Shaun joined the team: 3.8 points, 2.1 rebounds on 51% shooting in 11 minutes per game.
JaVale McGee after Shaun joined the team: 10.1 points, 6.7 rebounds on 51% shooting in 23.4 minutes per game.
Now, again, clearly increased playing time mattered, and clearly, this is a very incomplete exercise. But it appears Livingston's presence made a big difference for all these guys. In fact, if you break this down even further, Young and McGee in particular played so much better in April than they did in any other month. April, of course, just so happened to be the month where Livingston got the most playing time.
So we've seen how Livingston's presence may have helped save the development of our young players, at least temporarily. We've seen how he's developed a great rapport with Sam Cassell and how he always comes prepared for games. He's always one of the first ones out practicing before games whenever I go, whereas Blatche, Young and McGee tend to lag a bit further behind. These things matter when you have a young team, like the Wizards will going forward. You need guys to help show them the way, and it doesn't hurt that Livingston himself isn't all that old.
Obviously, price matters here, and if the offers for Shaun get too ridiculous, it's not worth overpaying too much. But I don't see that happening, especially if Ernie Grunfeld comes forward with a quick offer affirming to Shaun that he's a part of the team's plans. A three-year, $9-10 million dollar deal, with the third year either a team option or partially guaranteed, is a fair deal for both sides and wouldn't cut too much into the Wizards' cap space. Ernie should make that offer right away instead of waiting around to see what happens.
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I was strongly in favor of resigning Livingston and making him the only free agent signing of the summer
Until the Wizards got the #1 pick. Mike, you make a great argument for why the Wizards should have been interested in resigning Livingston before it got the #1 pick, but you don’t address how the selection of Wall affects or doesn’t affect the decision.
If the Wizards are going to pick Wall and build around him, why sign as a free agent another young guy who is going to want to start at PG? I don’t think that Livingston will be just happy to play 10 or 12 minutes a game behind a 19 year old. You don’t get to where Livingston is, and come back from that horrifying injury, without having a lot of heart, competitiveness and drive. Add in the fact that the team’s superstar, who has been the team’s PG for the last 5 or 6 years, also plays PG, and if you resign Livingston, the team’s three best players could be point guards. That’s just an unnecessary mess, and won’t help Wall’s development.
If you pick Wall, you’ve got to commit to him. That means letting Livingston go.
I don't think that matters
If Shaun wants a starting job, then he wants a starting job and he’ll go elsewhere. But from the Wizards’ standpoint, this is not the time to worry about positional logjams, even at point guard. This is the time to keep around young players who make a difference on the team, set a good example, are good characters, all of those things.
Besides, I don’t want to see Gil back at point guard that much anymore – it’ll only make the transition to the 2 that he needs to make more difficult – so I don’t see how that makes a difference.
by Mike Prada on Jun 8, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And also
I could be wrong about this, but my sense is Shaun cares mostly about having a secure spot on a winning team, more than anything. I don’t think not starting is a dealbreaker.
Is Livingston in demand?
I have seen a lot of mention of Livingston rejecting an offer from the Wizards because he wants to go someplace where he can start. However, bear in mind that although he had a strong run of 26 games with the Wizards, Livingston has played in 48 games total the past three seasons, and of those has started only 19. I think there’s a real possibility that we are exaggerating his value on the market and his ability to hold out for a starting gig.
And if we sign Livingston to a relatively inexpensive 2 or 3 year contract and he proves capable of being a starting point guard in the NBA, then I don’t see how that would be an “unnecessary mess” because a starting PG on a cheap contract could bring us some talented young pieces/ high draft picks at positions of need.
by morethesamewiz on Jun 8, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Your last paragraph is a good point. I am just a little concerned with a rookie coming in and having a two time all-star and a former #4 pick looking over his shoulder from day 1. We saw how Dan Fegan reacted to Rubio coming to D.C. last summer with Gil here, and then to Rubio being picked by MN, who then picked Flynn. Signing Livingston could send the wrong signal, get the Wall Era off on the wrong foot, that’s all I’m saying.
I can almost guarantee that John Wall's psyche won't be damaged
by having other Point Guards on the roster – even if they are talented ……
And Rubio is a special case…. He had, and still has, European teams ready, willing and able to pay him big money to stay in Europe…. then he was drafted 5th with a salary slot of just enough to pay off his buy-out – so he would be playing in the NBA for nothing… I guarantee if he had been picked #1 (with the $5 Million per year salary slot) he would be playing in the NBA today.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
here's one
Everyone knows Wall has the keys to the Franchise now. There is no mistaking that. If not SL we have to sign SOMEONE to play reserve PG minutes and/or emergency PG time. So do we run every signing by JW? Do we ask politely if we can have a backup at his position on a 15-man team?
There is absolutely no way John Wall, the number 1 pick in the 2010 NBA draft is going to worry the least about the Wizards re-signing of a street FA PG from last year. He’s the show now, but he can’t play all 48 for 82.
by Jheiser3 on Jun 8, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm with Mike here
You simply cannot worry about a log jam at any position when you are rebuilding…
The more talented, young players you have – the more assets you can bring to the trade table…
Besides, we’ve seen how one injury to a critical position can cripple a team – when you don’t have talented players behind the starter.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Why would Livingston stay?
I would love to see Livingston re-signed, and I think he’d be an excellent backup PG, but what incentive does he have to stay in DC now that we’re signing Wall? I am SURE he feels that he can go to another team and be a starter, and he probably felt he could’ve been the starter in DC until we got the #1 pick. Even with a good offer from Ernie, it’s not a good situation for him.
With Livingston's history
If i were him I would be more concerned about having a secure job at this point. Washington was the team that brought him out of the D-League and the Wizards know what he can do better than anyone else. Getting a starting gig might be important for Shaun at some point in the future, but in the minds of players like him, money is the most important factor. Just look at how fast Alonzo Gee bolted for San Antonio after his great run here. Players care about job security, first and foremost and since the Wizards know how valuable Livingston is more than any other team, we should have an edge in signing him as long as the cost is not too ridiculous
by Marine4Life51 on Jun 8, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Livingston
But this is terrible thinking. First, I don’t think you can get him for $3 million per. I do not see that happening. Secondly, he’s going to want more than 2 years guaranteed. He’s no dummy, and he realizes he needs to cash in while he can. No way I’m tying up 3-4 years averaging $4 million per year on a guy with his injury history. Note that he had plenty of injury problems before the famously horrible incident. He’s rail thin, and he will miss games in the future too. If I could sign him to a neverending series of 10-day contracts, then I’d love him forever. If I could get him for 2 years, $4.5 million total, then sign me up. Neither of those things are feasible.
I wouldn’t be horrifically angry if they made the deal you ended with, but I don’t think that is the likely occurence. I understand the desire to have a hard working leader/mentor for some of our other players, and I agree to an extent that Shaun would do well in that role (and has). I think you are attributing everything to him though, when reality probably shows that our verrrry young squad developed with more PT…particularly with one another. I also (call me crazy) think Gil will be a really good influence on the other players next year. He will have a humble, head down attitude far more often than in years past. If we trade Gil somehow, then yes, I want Livingston. Until then, the Bullets need to save cap space for subsequent years.
But what do I know? I’m the guy that wants us to use a traded player exception for Beasley.
Umm
I think you are attributing everything to him though, when reality probably shows that our verrrry young squad developed with more PT…particularly with one another.
You must have glossed over pretty much every single one of my qualifiers.
nope...read them
I just happen to think your qualifiers negate the point of including those statistics.
I guess, to me, it's an important distinction
Just so I can make sure I’m totally clear in my writing.
fair enough
but i’m gonig to be more flippant since i’m commenting on a fansite…you understand. i just think that even if you state your qualifiers after, you are automatically attributing more to those statistics than is warranted based on using them at all. It’s like mentioning cancer in an environmental health piece, and then stating that there is no PROVEN causal link…it’s casual at best. Obviously not that big of a deal, but since you wanted clarification…there is mine.
This is a community, not a fan site
So if you wouldn’t be flippant in person, please don’t be flippant on here, whether it’s to me or other posters.
And I’m sorry, but there are many reasons things happen, so those numbers matter even if there are other factors affecting them.
rest assured
I would most certainly be flippant in person
maybe
But honestly Mike, this just reads funny to anyone who watched Blatche after the mid-season trades:
Andray Blatche before Shaun joined the team: 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists on 49.4% shooting in just under 24 minutes per game.
Andray Blatche after Shaun joined the team: 20.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists on 46.1% shooting in 36.5 minutes per game.
Just as one example.
That said, there’s no doubt Livingston is the type of player that makes other players better.
Personally however, much more important than resigning Livingston is adding players that will play well with John Wall, and I can’t imagine Livingston seeing much time on the court with Wall.
The only way I see Livingston in a Wizards jersey next season is if he and the Wizards believe he can play the 3.
Anyone care to comment on whether Wall, Arenas and Livingston can share the court at the same time?
by Johnnie Futbol on Jun 8, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
How many minutes do we project Wall will play per game?
If Arenas and Wall play 35 minutes per game, that leaves 26 minutes per game to divide between Livingston, Young and who knows who else.
Maybe that’s not horrible, but I gotta think Livingston is hoping for more.
That said I’ll cheer like most everyone else if he’s on the roster next season.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jun 8, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Which one of them is getting abused in the post every time down court?
I would rather bring in relatively cheap character guys that can fill roles in the long run. Again, if Livingston is relatively cheap I’m all for it. I would personally love to get Roger Mason, Jr. back.
Livingston is a little thin, but he’s 6’7" and long.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jun 8, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
a little?
really? abused in the post against any SF with any game down low
Perhaps
a statistic that shows how many of Blatche, Young and McGee’s shots were assisted = BEFORE Shaun Livingston and AFTER Shaun Livingston might help….
I can almost guarantee that Shaun Livingston assisted more baskets than our other Point Guards earlier in the year (except Gil)…. Foye certainly didn’t set the world on fire with assists… and Boykins doesn’t know how to pass -
I know what I SAW -
What I SAW was that when Livingston was in the game, the Wizards half-court Offense looked organized. Guys were cutting, and getting the ball in their sweet spots…. When Foye or Boykins were in the game- there was a lot of standing around, watching a dribbling exercise.
Now – there’s probably a stat out there that shows that somewhere ……
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I'll need to crunch some numbers
Wanted to get this up first, but you’re right, there’s more work to be done here.
how about...assists per game!
Who cares which players got the assists, if we want to look at how much Shaun helped other players, we could just look at his assists per game. This is an evaluation of Shaun, right?
by zl on Jun 9, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
there you may be correct
And if so, as I said, I would be all for resigning him at a reasonable price for a reasonable length. We shall see who was the better prognosticator sooner or later.
To follow up more on this point
Let’s look at teams with cap room this summer:
Chicago – they have Rose
Clippers – they have Baron
Miami – they’re a possibility to watch, but not after they fill most of their cap space
Minnesota – haha
New Jersey – not with Harris there
New York – another team to watch, though I wonder if D’Antoni would really want a PG who isn’t a great shooter
Sacramento – they have Tyreke
Oklahoma City – they have Westbrook
Besides those, here’s where everyone else is at
Atlanta – MLE, plus they’re penny pinching after making a play to re-sign JJ
Boston – Rondo
Charlotte – They have Felton to worry about, but I guess Shaun could be a cheaper alternative
Cleveland – Maybe?
Dallas – they have Kidd
Denver – they have Billups, and major money issues
Detroit – they have Stuckey
Golden State – they have Curry and Ellis
Houston – they have Brooks
Indiana – money issues
Lakers – This is a team to watch, but it’s hard to just plug someone into the Triangle that isn’t a good shooter
Memphis – This is a team to watch, but they also have Conley and it would hard to sink too much into another PG
Milwaukee – they have Jennings
New Orleans – they have CP3
Orlando – they have Jameer
Philly – they have Holiday and money issues
Phoenix – they have Nash
Portland – they have Miller
San Antonio – for now, they have Parker
Toronto – they have too much money invested in Calderon
Utah – they have Deron
So I guess there’s Miami, New York and Memphis, with maybe the Lakers as a possibility. That’s really it.
Indiana is desperate for a point guard
and Atlanta could use one, too. You dismiss teams that already have a point guard or have two much money sunk into a point guard, but the Wizards should sign him when they will have Wall and Gil’s bazillion $$$ contract?
Are there sign and trade possibilities here? Can the Wizards sign and trade someone they picked up mid-season like Livingston?
Umm
The Wizards have $20 million in cap space. Indiana is over the luxury tax, and Atlanta and Toronto will be if they re-sign Johnson and Bosh. So yes, money issues.
And I thought the idea was that Shaun would bolt for more money and a starting job, which is why the other PGs were included in this discussion.
Actually
I thought Livingston was worth a 3-year contract starting at $3.5-$4 Million the first year….
That would work out to 3-years and between $11.5 Million ($3.5 Mil first year) to $13.2 Million ($4.0 Mil first year) ….. 3rd year would be a team option.
Still leaves plenty of cap room for BOYD trades….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
hmmm - that's weird
I thought Livingston was worth a 3-year contract starting at $3.5-$4 Million the first year….
That would work out to 3-years and between $11.5 Million ($3.5 Mil first year) to $13.2 Million ($4.0 Mil first year) ….. 3rd year would be a team option.
Still leaves plenty of cap room for BOYD trades….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
you see
I think Miller can be had for not much more than that. And I know a number of people would have me burned at the stake for saying this, but I’d rather have someone like Miller playing alongside Wall, Arenas and Blatche for just a little more than Livingston coming off the bench.
I just think the priority for signing free agents is finding players that will mix well with Wall.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jun 8, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm more worried about Miller's age than anything
Shaun’s at least still only 24. But you are right with him potentially being a better fit – if he embraced being an actual spot-up shooter.
If Miller can be had for 3-years $10 Million
he would be a steal….
But it wouldn’t necessarily mean that Livingston couldn’t be signed as well…. Wall will not be able to play all 48 minutes for 82 games. The Wiz will need a backup PG…
Miller can play SF – and is probably actually better playing there than SG. So signing Miller doesn’t exclude signing Livingston (unless Miller wants too much)…
I still say a Guard rotation of Wall, Arenas, Livingston and Young (with Young getting the short end of the minutes) can work fine….
BY the way – I think Miller will be offered something like 3-4 years, starting at the MLE….by someone. And at that price, he’s too steep for the Wiz.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I am even more optimistic
GIll, Wall, and Livingston all play the guard position differently.
Gill is constantly probing for weaknesses and scoring opportunities.
Wall is looking to blow by defenders and set up the open man.
Livingston sets up the action with his back to the basket.
Really, I think its tough to find three guards who compliment each other like that.
I think a guard lineup of Wall, Gill, and SL is like the chi lineup of Rose, Gordon, and Hinrich on steroids.
by forthepeople on Jun 9, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
SL should stay and MM should go
MM is a great shooter but will want and most likely get more than we should spend in rebuild mode.
SL can be had for less and most likely will get minutes this year as Wall is after all a rookie. If he gets decent coin for 1 yr, he’d most likely stay as most teams wouldn’t start him at PG anyway.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
This confuses me
cause even above you are saying that both Charlotte and Cleveland are possibilities. I just think there is a lot yet to happen in FA. Many teams have set their sights on the stars and some will be looking back to earth in panic before long. This could drive up prices on players you may not expect.
Another thing to consider
is that demand for Point Guards has diminished somewhat because last year there was a glut of really good PG’s in the draft.
Even teams with an established veteran, STAR point guard, sometimes have a youngster behind them that’s pretty good too – There is a glut of good PG’s that have come out in the last several years – - – (New Orleans, Timberwolves, etc…) and some other teams drafted a PG last year and are building around that player (Bucks, Warriors, Kings, etc…)
In my count, I see 12 very good young PG’s drafted in the 1st round last year… now combine that with 5 good PG’s drafted in the First round last year – - – and the starting veterans out there – and there shouldn’t be much of a market for PG’s in Free Agency this year.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
should say
5 good PG’s drafted in the First round last year
5 good PG’s drafted in the First round the year before
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
We'll see
But that’s the landscape right now, and there are many more players ahead of Livingston on the list of guys who get overpaid by teams missing out on LeBron.
exactly
and guys like Luke Ridnour, Duhon etc are the true middle class of free agency. Livingston is closer to the scrap heap class. If he had had the exact same year for the Kings or Nets would anyone here even have an opinion on him? Would anyone want him for 3M? I say 2 years 4M guaranteed would be a hell of a contract for a kid who couldn’t stick with the ultimate youth movement (OKC).
by Jheiser3 on Jun 8, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is why I feel we've been overpricing him
$3-4 million per year is a lot. He’s proven that he’s a good player, but he needs to show that he can stay healthy. If he can stay as a healthy, solid role player, then in a couple of years he can look for a starting gig and a pay raise.
He still has to prove something. Something along the lines of a 3 year, $6 million contract with the third year as a player option sounds about right to me. Give him $3.5 million over the first two years and then he can opt out as a 26-year old, quality role player that’s proven he’s healthy and ready to start.
I think that’s the best he can get in the biggest FA class in NBA history. The big boys will get max deals and everyone else will compete for scraps. For the right price, Livingston would be my second priority (Lebron #1).
Flip will make minutes for this to work. Having a guy like Livingston run with our second unit can do wonders for our team. Flip was already designing a 2 PG offense so having 3 PGs on the team that are all above 6’4" shouldn’t be a problem. If we just give him a little security, then I don’t see how Livingston passes us up. He’s in a system where he’s clicked with the Head Coach and knows that he will get his opportunity to shine.
Sticking with us for a couple of seasons can solidify his spot in the NBA and when he does hit FA, he’ll still have a good 8-10 to potentially play for his next squad. Re-signing Livingston to a short contract would be mutually beneficial to both parties.
You only need one team
“I’m told the Knicks are very intrigued by Shaun Livingston. His strong finish to the season will earn him a call this summer.” Alan Hahn’s twitter.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Jun 8, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Skeptical
They pass over Luke Ridnour, Felton, other other top FA’s and spend on a street free agent reclamation project? Does that sound like the Knicks?
But how much money
will the Knicks have left over? I don’t think enough to give him $3 million per year.
Yeah - and the Knicks won't do ANYTHING with SL
until they’ve exhausted their run at the big name Free Agents (LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Nowitzki, Stoudemire, etc…)
Hopefully , by that time, Ernie has made his pitch….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Miami, Atlanta, Lakers, Indiana, Knicks...
I get the feeling all thee teams can offer SL more PT than the Wiz can.
There is no question that by the end of last season SL had proven he was back to being a factor in the NBA. Nor is there any question that he would provide both excellent back-up play and insurance against injuries if he he stayed here.
I think he is expecting more than the offer you outined, Mike, but I certainly agree with you that it would not hurt Ernie to make this type of an offer pre-emptively once the draft is completed.
back?
How can he be back to being a factor if he never was one? If he had performed like this for the Kings or Jazz would anyone here be advocating 3M a year guaranteed? This is getting dangerously close to overpaying a guy when there are perfectly good and inexpensive options available (deshawn, songalia). Ernie could have brought in Devin Brown for a fraction of the price that he signed DS for. Their production over the span of DS’ contract make that signing look really bad.
I like Shaun as a player but we need to keep from spending frivolously and tying up future cap dollars when replacements aren’t that hard to find. If we were a conference contender needing to keep the core together then guarantee do it. We’re not and we’re at minimum of a couple years away from being that. So don’t.
perfectly good and inexpensive options available
Ok – so where are all these good (AND inexpensive) options?
Here’s a list of the current unrestricted Free Agent Point Guards available with their 2009-10 Salary in Parentheses, the number of years service, and their minimum Salary for 2010-11….
Nate Robinson ($5 Million) 5-year Vet $992,680
Raymond Felton ($5.5 Million) 5-year Vet $992,680
Acie Law ($2.2 Million) 3-year Vet $885,120
Ronald “Flip” Murray ($1.9 Mil) 8-year Vet $1,223,166
Jannero Pargo ($1.9 Million) 7-year Vet $1,146,337
Anthony Carter ($825K) 11-year Vet $1,352,181
Earl Watson ($2.8 Million) 9-year Vet $1,229,255
Steve Blake ($4.0 Million) 7-year Vet $1,146,337
Derek Fisher ($5.0 Million) 14-year Vet $1,352,181
Jamaal Tinsley ($738K) 8-year Vet $1,223,166
Rafer Alston ($475K) 11-year Vet $1,352,181
Carlos Arroyo ($825K) 8-year Vet $1,223,166
Royal Ivey ($1 Million) 6-year Vet $1,069,509
Luke Ridnour ($6.5 Million) 7-year Vet $1,146,337
Chris Quinn ($1 Million) 4-year Vet $915,852
Chris Duhon ($6 Million) 6-year Vet $1,069,509
Kevin Ollie ($825K) 13-year Vet $1,352,181
Jason Williams ($825K) 11-year Vet $1,352,181
Shaun Livingston ($2.2 Million) 5-year Vet $992,680
Which of the above list of available players would you say is a better option than paying Shaun Livingston $3 Million?
Or maybe you were thinking of drafting a PG…. Well, even though this is a POOR draft for Point Guards (other than John Wall) – there are going to be some available…. In the draft, the following guys might be available when the Wizards pick:
Eric Bledsoe from Kentucky (if the Wiz can move up)
Terrico White from Mississippi
Armon Johnson ( a very poor defender)
Mikhail Torrance
Is there someone there you want to hand the back-up Point Guard duties to?
Or are you suggesting we look at a D-League guy to be the back-up Point Guard, and play 15-20 minutes a night for the Wizards this season…?
I’d like to hear about what options you see available….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
What I was waiting for
Too lazy to do the research myself.
This list is gawd awful. The world does not make sense when Acie Law can make so much money for doing so little…but I digress.
The thing with Shaun is that he IS size. None of these schelps could stop him in the post. His proven production and unique abilities combined with the lack of quality alternatives makes his re-signing more important than I originally thought.
I’m starting to come around to the idea of offering Shaun closer to $4 million as a starting salary of a 3-year deal. The third year could be offered as a team option, but I’d leave it open at the negotiation table. If he thinks he can do better elsewhere, then we’d have to let him go. The key, as Prada and others have said, is speed. We should set the market for him, not fall prey to it.
NBA teams would probably rather have the following:
Felton, Ridnour, Duhon for sure. Probably Alston, since they love backup vets. Don’t forget RFAs too like Will Bynum, C.J. Watson, Kyle Lowry, Shannon Brown (he might be a UFA), Sergio Rodriguez (again, might be a UFA), Roger Mason (UFA) and Ronnie Price.
The market’s a lot bigger than it looks.
scenario
Rook’s position also glosses over the idea of acquiring a PG via trade. Take a PG off someone’s roster for a conditional pick to fill the gap. We’re not locked into only signing or drafting a PG.
OK
Sure – since you didn’t pick one from list A (Free Agents) , list B (Draft Choices, or List C (D-League)….
Then let’s hear your trade proposal for obtaining a decent backup PG at a reasonable (Less than $3 Million per year) price….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
D
I said a D leaguer or street FA would be fine, cuz thats exactly what Shaun was after being cut by Miami and Oklahoma City. Signing a street FA then thinking you MUST lock him up for 3+ Million over multiple years makes no sense. You’re spending money like we’re a contender trying to keep a core together and not a lottery team in rebuilding mode.
again
If he had put up 9 points and a slightly lower than 2-1 AST to TO ratio in Sacramento or OKC would we be willing to pay him 3M? you realize that both Miami and OKC had him last year and washed their hands of him right? Didn’t want to pay him a few hundred K to stick around. Now we’re nuts not to guarantee him 3M for at least 2 if not 3 years.
A lot of the players you mentioned outproduced him and can actually make 3 point shots. So while I love having a true distributor on the team there is no reason to overpay him simply because you got to watch him play 26 games, or more likely because you liked what you saw in a couple of 20+ point glimpses in 100% meaningless games. Its a classic fan overreaction and the kind that can lead to mistakes not unlike Deshawn Stevenson’s contract.
He was a street FA and there are more to be found there and in the D League.
So------
your choice is………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Still waiting…….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Not trying to be condescending....
but you and I have a very different opinion on how the team should be built…. and the value of Shaun Livingston.
I see Shaun Livingston as a central piece (another young, talented player that we can lock up on a short term, relatively inexpensive contract) – and you see him as a crippled throw-away player with no future.
A D-League player, or throw-away one-year FA, does NOTHING to advance the rebuilding process.
Now here’s a scenario for you:
Shaun Livingston signs a 3-year contract, starting at $3 Million. Comes in and plays back-up Point Guard to John Wall … The end of last year, he was just starting to show some of the spring in his legs he had before the injury. So now he plays 20 minutes a night backing up Wall, and does really well…. Shows the League he’s back….and the Wizards have another young asset (trade piece) that other teams may want.
Your scenario:
Shaun Livingston signs a 3-year contract starting at $3 Million… blows out his knee in Training Camp – and the Wizards are “stuck” with his contract for this year and next….
I think it’s worth the risk…. EVERY player has the risk of injury, but if Livingston is really back to (or close to) his old self, he can be a very, very special player.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Jun 10, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
wow
why should anyone even bother to respond to you? you have my reply already figured out. You went from being unintentionally condescending to intentionally being a ####. That’s talent.
hmmm.......
I re-read my post 3 times…. and I still don’t see how I went to being a #####
Obviously, we both see something different when we look at Livingston….
I see him as a seasoned, young player that can still get much better…. and I assume you don’t see the same thing since you called him a “street FA”…
And then since I see him as a young player that can get better; he becomes an asset. In my opinion, Shaun Livingston has a higher ceiling than Nick Young or Al Thornton, for instance – ( I discount the fact that both Miami and OKC had him last year and released him – because I doubt he was completely healed and fully healthy…)
I see your point, and disagree -
However, I apologize if you construed my post as insulting.. that was certainly not my intention.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Don't sleep on MN
I’m telling ya man, the 5-PG lineup is coming!
I also don't see a huge demand for Livingston
If he can be had under the terms you describe I agree he’s worth signing.
I think he’d jump at a guaranteed multi-year deal. I don’t think anyone out there is handing him the keys and starting him.
by MR on Jun 8, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Plenty!
You know plenty! I wouldn’t mind seeing Beasly on the Wizards if he could be had cheaply.
I’d rather we not overpay for Livingston with Wall And Gilbert on the team. It seems counter-
productive. I think Wall is going to be a fine point. Gilbert could swing back if necessary, hell,
he’ll be creating off the ball anyway like when Larry Hughes was here. When/if Gil swings to
point, he can play with Nick Young. I love Livingston’s game, but here’s where the Wizards can
truly save the precius CAP SPACE,
How can everyone say that paying $3 Million is overpaying for Livingston?
that is HALF the league Average Salary….. and amounts to one ONE HALF, OF ONE PERCENT of the projected $56 Million Salary Cap number
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Sorry - hit post too quickly
That should read:
that is HALF the league Average Salary….. and amounts to only 5.3% of the projected $56 Million Salary Cap number
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Jun 9, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry
Meant to say that we’d have more than $25 million committed to 3 PGs. That’s nearly 50% of our cap number.
Ok -
So because we signed Arenas to an absurd contract – we should try to fill in the back-up Point Guard role with a cheap player?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Guards not just PGs
I think its an important distinction. What position you play is decided by who you can guard. All three have terrific size and length meaning we could get any mix of the three in the backcourt. Flip has already gone to a two guard front and all three have a different style of play so there isn’t a ton of overlap.
I was replying to gorebd
because he thinks just because we have 2 PG’s (Wall and Arenas, even though it’s assumed that Arenas will move to SG)… that we shouldn’t commit more of our limited Cap Space to Livingston (a 3rd PG by his count)….
In actuality, we have only $5.7 Million committed to PG’s (Wall) and over $20 Million committed to Shooting Guards (Arenas and Young)…
In my mind – I’ve already moved Gilbert Arenas to Shooting Guard…. leaving a hole at back-up Point Guard… Now perhaps gorebd will be satisfied to bring in a cheap D-Leaguer to play 15-20 minutes a night in relief of Wall – but I won’t be satisfied with that…
Maybe gorebd would rather we just re-sign Earl Boykins; he’ll only cost about $1 Million…. He would dribble the air out of the ball, and the Second Unit would suffer because of him – but the Wizards would “SAVE” $2 Million….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Arenas can still play PG
I know that’s not what you want, but Arenas has had a pretty successful career at PG. I’ve been for moving him off ball for a long time, but I think its crazy to think that he can’t get some of the PG rotation. Let him get 1/3 of his playing time at PG. Let Wall play PG for 100% of his playing time. My point is that $3 million to the 3rd PG on the roster is absurd. Especially when he has the horrific injury history that Livingston has.
because
he was a street FA that was cut by 2 NBA teams last year. We signed him off the scrap heap and he had an ok finish in meaningless games. His two 20 point outbursts are clearly coloring people’s memory. if he had a nice run of those games for another squad out west no one would be begging to throw 3M at him. This is like guaranteeing AB 10M for his 36-game outburst.
to be clear
i like the kid. i love having a true distributor and someone who thinks in terms of getting others good shots on the team. but this is a lottery team that won’t be contending for a couple years and we helped him get his career back. So why guarantee more than a season worth of salary to someone with his injury history?
Agree 100%
And it’s by no means a given that Livingston wouldn’t start anyway. A lot can happen in the NBA, as we all learned last season; Arenas may be traded or become limited in his minutes because of his knee, or Wall may take a while to develop. Or he might even conceivably develop his outside jumper to the point that he can slide over to the two at times. Having three break-out players who can play point with two playing combo-guard represents more of an ongoing threat than having just two and one.
In my opinion, Livingston was the real “glue guy” last season—and November and December won’t be pretty without him.
Hey - let's all remember that Wall also played beside another PG at Kentucky
There’s NOTHING in the rule book that says you can’t have two guys that can pass in the same back court…. Or even share back court duties between 3 guys that can all pass….
Livingston plays pretty good defense – and could conceivably defend SG’s – Wall has tremendously long arms and could defend SG’s – and Arenas…………………………………well…. let’s not go there.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
One of those two
would need to be able to make a jumpshot.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Jun 8, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Besides, there's an elephant in the room
That no one is daring to mention. What if Wall gets hurt and misses his first season?
It’s not like that never happens to #1 picks…
agree -
NY, Livingston, Wall and Arenas is a good group of guards. very good. 3 of the 4 are capable of defending well. who knows if wall will start right away, and it’s great to have the option of starting shaun until he’s ‘ready’.
plus, they were just sooo much better to watch when livingston played. as a fan, that’s ultimately what interests me most. that guy played phenomenal ball last 1/3rd of the season.
"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith
by little stevie colter on Jun 8, 2010 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
well
I agree 100%, Once Shaun got comfortable, he ran the team the way a PG should .And having he and Wall as a one-two punch would (hopefully) help with continuity—particularly when the second unit is on the floor. Unfortunately, there will be a team that totally misses the mark on major free agents, and starts throwing money around, and overpays people like Livingston, and he’ll have no choice but to leave. I hope I’m wrong though
twitter.com/rashad20
This is my concern
I completely agree that I want him on the squad. It’s the potential price that it could take which concerns me. and he’s built on toothpicks.
I agree price matters
I’m just saying – make this offer right away. Don’t wait for him to go out and try to seek his price. If he rejects this, then forget it.
The problem is that because of his strong finish he’s probably going to be overvalued. And he’ll also probably want to test his value on the market. He’s also, to me, something of a risk. Keep in mind that the guy had negative offensive win shares with OKC last season
by zl on Jun 9, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
It depends on what you mean by "high priority"
There’s no question that winning the JW sweepstakes altered the team’s need for Livingston. Before, SL’s re-signing was crucial. Now, I think it’s a luxury. Yes, he brings good intangibles and showed good on-court production in the last two months, but finding a solid defensive big man is more important, IMO.
Yeah - like I'm sure that we can get Earl Boykins to be the back-up PG
for the Veteran minimum…….
I wonder if all these naysayers (toothpick legs, not worth cap space, will interfere with Wall development, too expensive) would rather watch Boykins dribble the air out of the ball for 10 minutes a night….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Jun 8, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I still like Scottie Reynolds scoring ability
Not sure if he’ll get drafted, may be worth a look if we can get him on the summer league roster.
by TheRealBigMike on Jun 9, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Problem
I like the thought of offering him guaranteed money now. That’s big step for a guy with his injury history. loyalty does matter sometimes. And a case can be made that a 2 year deal is perfect for him. He can get cash and share time with JW. He’ll re-enter free agency as a 26 year old.
Is he really going to give up free agency for a few M now? I don’t see why his agent would do that. So at that point Ernie has to stick to his offer and let the market play itself out. Regardless of who it is, Big Ern has to commit to the back up PG position to keep Gilbert from sliding back there should Wall be unavailable.
by Jheiser3 on Jun 9, 2010 12:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Commitment
People are really underestimating the loyalty when it comes to SL and a team that not only signed him but played him and committed to developing him. He hasn’t had that since his rookie year.
The main reason I want Shaun back is to show a true commitment to keeping Gilbert off the ball for the entire season. I realize he will run some sets but by re-signing SL we commit to both a starting and a reserve PG. Wall doesn’t have to play 40 minutes a night as a rookie. SL can also be a nice fit opposite Gilbert.
Flip is committed to the “2 guard system” and the indication is that he and Sam Cassell both want Shaun back to be a part of it.
by Jheiser3 on Jun 8, 2010 7:47 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
He was awfully non-committal at the end of the season
That could all be posturing, but still.
Yeah
I want him here with us, but at the same time I also really want him to have a opportunity to being a in starting role and getting his career back on track after that horrific injury. Also, DraftExpress.com has a new John Wall workout video and interview!!
Save the money for size.
Watching Boston and the Lakers just remind me of how we need size. Pheonix was semi-successful but even they had some size. I just think we need one more big man with some good play over another PG.
Yeah - but watching Orlando's poor PG play
reminded me how much a good PG brings to the table – a lot of which is never noticed….. in the form of a free-flowing offense..that doesn’t stagnate.
I mean – look at what Rondo is doing for Boston – they’d have been toast in these Playoffs without him.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Dont know if anyone has mentioned this already..
but it really is going to come down to how much we’re willing to pay. As it was so eloquently broken down earlier in the thread, there is not a high demand for Livingston, and the teams that could use his services are not likely to use him as a full time starter. Minutes are obviously a factor, but pay is going to be an even bigger factor in determining where he ends up.
One thing i did forget is that Raymond Felton is an FA this year, if we lose out on Livingston, anybody think we should go after Felton to add to the rotation?
I think Felton will cost too much
AND – he’ll be more in demand than Livingston…. so he’ll likely be signed before Livingston.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
My fear about making an offer to him so early...
Livingston made it pretty clear to me at the end of the season that he was going to test the market. If we place an offer early I don’t think it’s going to change anything. He’s still going to test the market. Only difference is that he would then be testing the market with a baseline figure to use against other teams. Rather than bid against ourselves I’d rather know what his market value is also.
True
But we can always withdraw the offer at the start of the FA period, and then lower it if necessary.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Jun 9, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't he get his Bird rights faster if he stays here?
Does he care?
Hot topic!
what about a poll question? I vote keep him. the Wizards need to show players that hard work and committing to this team (esp during last season) pays off in $$
I really want...
to get a pick between 9 and 14 and take Xavier Henry. The more I read about him and the more highlights I watch the more I want him. If we are unable to get back into the lottery (taking on Peja’s $14 mil contract for NO’s 11 pick or Dunleavy’s contract for pacers # 10 or even Battier’s contract for HOU #14) to take Henry then I think resigning Livingston would be a good move at 3 years $10 mil.
However I would much prefer to get Henry who we could play at 2 or 3 and has all the tools we need, good perimeter defender, strong, and excellent outside shooter. I think we would be fine with Arenas, Wall, Young, Ross, and Henry as our guards.
Off Topic
During Laker game last night the refs reviewed a call to see which player tapped the ball out of bounds. It was clear in the replay that Rondo fouled Odom which made the ball go off Odom’s hand. I think I heard Mark Jackson say that the refs couldn’t go back and call a foul based on replay if the foul wasn’t already called.
Can you someone help me out. I’m 99.9% sure that the during one of the Wizards game late in the season the refs used replay to call a foul on one of the Wizards. They went to replay to review something else, but saw a Wizards foul and called it. Does anyone remember that play and can confirm that happen.
Also, I’m not talking about the Indiana game where the refs went to review to see if the foul happen before time ran out. I remember that play and it’s not the one I’m talking about. Please help.
Off topic as well
I think Jwall just signed with Reebok. hooray? or good luck maybe?
The need for two PGs
I would leave Gil out of the mix at PG and use him only as a backup
3rd choice for injury cover and keep him at the 2,
Hopefully with Wall coming in a era with a pass first PG can begin
and it should be a priority to tie up Livingston or another to fill in the minutes,
Scoring PGs like Gil and TMac clearly dont work down the line.
steve blake
you’re speaking my language. Commit to keeping Gilbert away from the PG spot. I’m fine with a decent Pg who can shoot and space the floor with Gilbert as the 3rd/emergency PG.
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