FanPost

Dr. Grunfeld...or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Trade


I haven't really weighed in on this subject before, but having poked around, I want to offer my perspective, which hopefully has a few mitigating factors for irate fellow fans.


Must preface this with a disclaimer, I know the crux of my argument is going to come down to money.  And at first blush from a financial perspective, we have laid an egg that would make a genetically engineered super chicken emit gamma radiation with envy.


That said, to the jump.

First, the main concrete difference between our most pressing criticism and what we wanted to see happen.  Why didn't we make the move OKC did, and pick up the #18 and Cook's pittance of a contract?  The OKC deal was better for Miami.  They offered a higher non-guaranteed pick than we could, end of story.  Also, it's out of the conference.  I think our trade exceptions weren't on the table, and that we are saving them for the trade deadline.  That's what I think was on EG's mind, and I definitely reserve judgment.  Seems pointless to save them while picking up Hinrich from Chicago...a nearly inscrutable move to be polite.  Simmons' hilarious characterization of EG as part of the "Mount Duncemore" GM club in his draft diary seems spot on...initially.

Apparently, Seraphin was in far more demand than I thought.  Sacramento is reportedly lined up to follow through on the Hinrich deal if the Wiz abscond, which is nice insurance for Chicago, but Cleveland's interest in Seraphin grabbed my interest.  Acquiring Varejao's rights from Orlando and drafting Hickson, I'd say they have an excellent eye for power forwards.  Regardless, a relative unknown (stateside, at least) isn't worth a $17,000,000 cap hit (all those zeroes drive it home).

The most pressing question, however, is just what exactly is Hinrich's contract value at this point?  I want to start by examining his worth concerning the BOYD strategem.  He is not the expiring deal we were looking for, so how could that possibly be a good thing?  Look at this from a different perspective, assume we resign no one, and assume Childress signs.  We have depth and guaranteed contracts at every position but Center (and we technically have depth there, but N'diaye's contract is not guaranteed, I think).  It takes time to test and season players, see how they fit.  Wall needs time to acclimate.  McGee, Young, and Blatche have to show over the course of the season that they can be depended on (And we DID make a half-hearted swipe at Rudy Fernandez).  Arenas and Childress get used to playing in the NBA again.  Seraphin, Booker, Wall, N'Diaye, McGee, Young, and Blatche will all need time over the course of the regular season (whether that is in the D-League or not) to accomplish their respective goals.  That means that the Wiz will know who has value NEXT year, when Hinrich's deal IS expiring, and the Wiz can hopefully make informed decisions about who to trade, for what, and when.  So my initial point is that Hinrich's contract value comes next year, when some teams may be even more desperate to get below the luxury tax line after overspending in THIS free agent period.  Plus we use the extra time to evaluate our young talent and see if we can dangle some youth and cap relief for a free agent who might put a surprising playoff team into title contention.  Stranger things have happened.

That much for Hinrich's contract, now for his player value.  I've seen a lot of 17 MILLION DOLLAR PLAYER COACH WTF?!?  Me to, dragon.  Me to.  What I perceive as the value of his contract aside, here's what I see in him as a player.  Locker room presence, unknown.  He's a vet.  Ok.  He has some playoff experience.  Good.  Not out of the first round recently, but that Boston series was the stuff of legend.  Good anecdotes for fireside chats with our rooks.  If we can't resign Livingston, I think there may be some benefit to Wall, but more he's someone who can show Gil and NY a bit about playing SG, being more active playing off the ball.  Gil is transitioning, and Young's rebounding average is atrocious.  Having someone who has made the transition to SG for Gil, who can show Young how to be active on the boards while (hopefully) scoring but more importantly keeping things on an even emotional keel through inconsistent play (my biggest gripe with NY is his confidence tapering off like investor confidence in a subprime loan), and Hinrich is someone Flip has wanted for a long time...well, without a name attached, someone who can do those things CAN be a win.

You can make the case for other cases, but I think this could not only work, but really work.  In conclusion, with no resignings and Childress:

PG: Wall/Arenas/Hinrich

SG: Arenas/Young/Hinrich

SF: Childress/Thornton

PF: Blatche/Seraphin/Booker

C: McGee/N'Diaye

Hinrich helps Gil transition to SG, helps Nick get his mind right, and gives Flip more confidence in his back court, two guard offence.

As a consequence, we have extra depth at PF, maybe we see more use of the D-League, like we all want.

We lose a LOT of money short term, but are poised to fleece a luxury tax team that overspends this year (the only question is how many teams will).  When we look at the three million we got from CHI, that salary we'll pay drops to six million, which is still too much, but that is where I hope Seraphin balances things out.  ATL wanted three million for their pick at #24.  So, lets say we paid three million to get the #17, Seraphin.  Suddenly Hinrich's contract this year cost THREE million.  And if we pull off that trade next season, having Kirk Hinrich's "albatross of a contract" hopefully doesn't look too bad at all.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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