What do the Wizards need, and how it determines their two late picks
One of my biggest complaints about Ernie Grunfeld's draft strategy is that he does too much swinging for the fences with his mid- to late-round picks. Sure, you'll occasionally hit with this philosophy, but you also squander the chance to find good, cheap role players that fit your style and your identity. The best teams have found good role players with late draft picks (just from this year's title teams, you have Rondo, Perkins, Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic, all taken 20 or later). Seeing as this year's draft is incredibly deep with college talent, we need to be making our late selections with utility and polish in mind.
But of course, to do this correctly, we need to have a good idea about our team weaknesses. Obviously, this is problematic because there are only six players under contract, all of whom bring their own questions to the table. We also need to be thinking about the long-term fit in addition to the short-term fit. That all being said, here's one perspective on what this team needs with John Wall at the helm and who might fill that hole.
(Note: I'm going to try to keep this realistic, so while we need a defensive-minded starting center, we're probably not going to get him with pick 30 or 35).
A TAD Guy (three-and-D) guy
This is my new acronym to describe the guy who can play the Bruce Bowen role going forward. Scan a lot of the best teams, and they have a guy like this playing as one of their starting wings. I'm talking about a low-usage wing player that guards the other team's best player on defense and effectively spaces the floor on offense. With John Wall in tow, and with the prospect of a potentially vicious drive-and-kick attack spearheaded by Wall and Gilbert Arenas (as well as a potentially awful defensive backcourt, to be fair), this guy is an absolute must.
I also think one of these late picks is the perfect spot to find this player. On the one hand, guys like these are commonly referred to as a "dime a dozen," because they tend to be on the cheap side. On the other hand, it's a lot harder than it looks to find someone who can exhibit all three of the necessary qualities for the role (low-usage, great on D, good three-point shooter). If it was easier, more team would have them on their team. There are a lot of players who exhibit two of these qualities, but finding one who exhibits all three is tougher than it looks.
That said, this is the perfect spot to find one of these guys. While everyone else shoots for the fences, sells their pick or goes for a Euro guy to stash, we could easily be unearthing the next Bruce Bowen. I would strongly urge Ernie, Ted and the gang to use one of the two late picks for this purpose.
Possibilities: Quincy Pondexter, Devin Ebanks, Damion James, Stanley Robinson.
A stretch four
Ultimately, if we're going to have John Wall on our team, it'd be nice to find a power forward that can run the pick and pop game, especially when Andray Blatche isn't on the floor. James Singleton in theory could be this guy, but his shooting was dreadful this year, and he's more of an interior guy. In general, our three-point shooting needs to be much better, because we took far too many long twos, and that's not good for efficient offense.
Possibilities: Craig Brackens, Stanley Robinson, Lazar Hayward
A wide body
As mentioned above, we're not going to find our starting center for the next ten years with the late picks we currently have. However, we do need someone to get tough interior buckets. The Wizards were near the bottom of the leaguein eFG% on shots inside of 10 feet, so this is definitely a need. Guys like this also often fall in the draft (Jake actually made up an acronym for them a couple years ago), so it's definitely a direction to consider.
Possibilities: Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, Gani Lawal, Derrick Caracter
Another ball-handler (if Shaun Livingston leaves)
In other words, a backup point guard.
Possibilities: Greivis Vasquez, Elliot Williams, Terrico White, Eric Bledsoe, Armon Johnson
Shooting of any kind
I can't stress this enough - we were killed last year with our lack of three-point shooting. Part of it was a matter of shot selection -- only Chicago shot more attempts per game from 16-23 feet - but part of it is personnel. Only Gilbert Arenas and Nick Young are elite three-point shooters, and Arenas was off his game even during the part of the season he played. Wall obviously has shooting issues of his own, so he's not going to solve this problem. Our late picks, however, could.
Possibilities: Jordan Crawford, Vasquez, Anderson, Willie Warren, White.
Agree? Disagree? Are there legitimate weaknesses missing here that can realistically be filled with late picks?
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Considering that Ernie
has tended to draft for offense used free agency/trades for defense, we’re most likely to go for a stretch four or some shooting (especially with Miller’s future being a “?”).
If we do get Vasquez, it better be for a need and not to shore up attendance from the Terp&Wiz demographic.
If your looking for someone to be a back-up PG and a good 3-point shooter.
Then we should sign Jerome Randall out of Cal as an un drafted free agent. I watched several of his games where he showed great three point ability and great ball handling. He once hit a three pointer well beyond the NBA three point line. Here are some videos of him:
http://www.bulletsforever.com/2010/6/21/1528728/what-do-the-wizards-need-and-how?login=1277153328
http://vimeo.com/4895282
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zHBQ354L8U
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSFyOjU1hI0
A Jerome Randle mixtape.
Anderson?
If Anderson drops to 30, passing on him would be as bad as not taking Blair last year.
Doubt he drops that far
If we want James Anderson we’ll hve to draft up into the early 20s. Which may be worth it.
by Spanky731 on Jun 21, 2010 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think drafting a TAD is harder than you give credit
How many good ones are there? Don’t they usually take quite a while to develop?
Ebanks's shooting makes me uneasy
Last year his FG percentage regressed, and he hadn’t been attempting (or making) many threes at all- his percentage was at 10%, a product of his averaging less than one attempt per game. Defensively, he’s got solid potential, and he’s a very good rebounder, so he could be worth a pick anyway, but Quincy Pondexter would be my first choice to fill the TAD role. I’d cast Ebanks as a stretch-4 or maybe a defensive 3.
"Guess you guys aren't ready for that yet... but trust me, you're gonna love it." ~Marty McFly
by mr. 91 on Jun 21, 2010 6:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why not try this
We got 6 players under contract and we have only 3 real starters. Why not try to fill the two open starting positions of SF and C? Especially since we are building through youth? Give these guys a chance since realistically we aren’t going to the playoffs. If it doesn’t work, then they can be role players? Of course if we get more draft picks then we can get a backup for Blatche, Wall, etc…
I think
Mike’s point was that ideally it would nice to find a starting SF and C for the team, but at 30 and 35 will they be better then Thornton and McGee right away? So this breaking down of needs is to really take the best player available while still having an impact of the team next year.
a big body center that does not get thrown around on defense and can hit the boards and make putbacks is better than mcgee right now. of course, mcgee would play if they lined up a similar athletic, scrawny center. its a fit we need. and a zoubek or something like him will be available.
by les boulez bomber on Jun 22, 2010 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I always feel you go
Best player available that late. Picks that low are expected to be role players or longshots anyway, so picking just to fill a need is shortsighted.
One guy not mentioned here who I’ve brought up a few times is Scottish Reynolds. I really think he’s gonna be a good “spark off the bench” type player. He may not have all the intangibles,but the kid knows how to play basketball.
by CJHutch on Jun 21, 2010 6:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Normally I would disagree
I believe late picks should be need picks. But since we only have 6 players, I agree that we should go for BPA.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Jun 21, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
beat me to it
I think Jordan Crawford will be the steal of the draft— i’m estatic if we end up with Wall, Crawford and a post prospect
2009 BTB Part Deux Fantasy League Champion. 'Kill Everybody 13-2'. KDP knows football.
My Wizards just won the first pick in the NBA Draft- The basketball gods have shown mercy.
Stephen Strasburg has given life support to my interest in baseball. Go Nats!
I feel like
a TAD and a wide body will be addressed with 30 and 35…of the players you posted I like in order..
1. Terrico White
2. Trevor Booker
3. Quincy Pondexter
4. Armon Johnson
5. Gani Lawal
6. Devin Ebanks
7. Kevin Seraphin
I haven’t seen much of Jordan Crawford or Willie Warren to give an opinion. Stanley Robinson’s interviews made me not like him. I’ve seen enough of Vasquez to roll the dice on someone else. Damion James doesn’t have much potential in my opinion. Lazar Hayward I haven’t seen play and Brackins is probably 8th on my board. Caracter…ehh…I’d rather have Pittman
Greivis Vasquez
Dude is a proven big-game player. Has international experience that showed in his senior year.
He put MD on his back and led them into the NCAA’s this year – posted a triple double in a huge game against UNC.
He’s second on MD’s all-time scoring list.
He’s openly stated how he loves the big game situation – and shown he’s capable of thriving in it.
Great on the fast break and has some pretty sick handles and court vision.
I DO NOT understand how he is projected as a 2nd rounder… Guarantee this man a contract with the 30th pick EG!
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jun 21, 2010 10:58 PM EDT reply actions
limited 3 and d...
I’m not in love with the 3 and D small forward. It’s limiting. Why not try to find a classic
small forward with a defensive mindset? All of the mentioned 3’s would be cool, but I
like Damion James(a steal!), and Stanley Robinson(his athleticism will make him a fac-
tor), better than the others. the best pick & pop big is clearly Craig Brackens. Derrick
Caracter is interesting. Better than Pittman and kinda like Glen Davis, I think. If Terrico
White falls, you have to draft him(another steal!). Problem is, you can’t have them all.
Unless you go BOYD this draft-If any draft, this is the one. Gonna be a lot of talent in
the bottom of this draft!! Bruce Bowen’s game was not so hot, IMHO.
It took Bruce Bowen quite a few years...
to become Bruce Bowen. Finding a ready-made one in this or any other draft is highly unlikely.
It actually took
Pat Riley convincing him that the best way for him to stick in the the league was to become a defensive specialist. Too bad more coaches don’t have that kind of talk with players. Defensive fundamentals are so lost on todays players, many of the players that have “washed out” of the league could’ve stuck just by learning how to move your feet and watch the waste on defense. If a guy with limited athleticism like Bowen can do it, imagine how good a guy like Darius Miles (or Nick Young) would be on ‘D’, if he took the time to learn how to play it right.
Good point...
Nick Young could raise his career by several notches if he too advantage of the physical gifts he has to play defense
And as for Robinson
the last thing the Wizards need is more 67"- 6’9" guys that can’t shoot from the outside… (Singleton, Thornton, Quinton Ross, Shaun Livingston, etc…)
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
SR
Is an elite athlete, 7 foot wingspan, and would add to the defensive prowess of this team, which is lacking. He’s a nice piece off the bench since Thornton isn’t going to be around for more than a year or so. That also allows us to use Thornton as a throw-in with any trades that come up. Plus, I’m comfortable working on a guy’s jump shot over time,.
He’s a quality addition to the new identity of this team. Not my first choice but he will play in the NBA for a long time.
Nick Young is an elite athlete with a 7-foot wingspan…. and he has not developed yet…
Robinson is very raw….
All I’m saying is that if the Wizards are drafting at #30 and #35, there are other options to fill holes (back-up Center, SF) – rather than taking an undersized, skinny Power Forward with no outside game, and limited post moves.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Agreed...
You have to be careful passing up elite athletes. Those guys a lot of times, stick, and
develop games ala Richard Jefferson. And Mike, with the guys I see in this draft at small
forward, say Damion James, I’m almost salivating at 30. 35 less so, but there’s players
down there too. Greivis Vasquez, Dexter Pittman, Derick Caracter. Sure, developmental
but there’s talent in positions that we need.

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