On buying draft picks and the like
Some quick, admittedly half-baked thoughts on getting more draft picks:
- We've talked a lot about using the BOYD strategy (definition here) to potentially get another lottery pick, but we haven't talked much about a much cheaper alternative: buying a later pick. I'm getting more and more worried that it'll require taking on a massive salary to get a lottery pick (i.e. a Peja Stojakovic, Andrei Kirilenko or Troy Murphy, all of whom make over $12 million next year), and while I'm happy Ted Leonsis seems open to something like that, it might not be wise to use all our BOYD powder right away. We lose the ability to do similar kinds of moves with our cap space during the season, when more teams could be in salary-cap peril.
- Why might a later pick be a better option besides it being cheaper? For one, this draft is pretty even in talent, so the difference between 11 and 29, for example, probably isn't worth $16 million for one year. For another, I believe will be a lot of mid- to late-first round picks being sold because teams would rather have the smaller, non-guaranteed salaries the second rounders bring.
- Who might be selling? My educated guesses: Miami at 18 (to get more cap space and/or dump James Jones), Oklahoma City at 21 and 26 (to get more cap space, don't need more rookies), Minnesota at 23 (doubt they use all three of their picks), Atlanta at 24 (to save money for Joe Johnson), Memphis at 25 and 28 (again, doubt they use all three of their first-rounders) and Orlando at 29. I'd take some of those picks for $3 million cash, absolutely.
- Why is the asking price for second-rounders going up? For more teams, the high second-rounder (for example, the 35th pick we have) is worth more than the low first-rounder (for example, the 30th pick) because the second-rounder brings in a first-round talent without having the guaranteed salary come with it. The lack of a guaranteed salary is huge for teams who are struggling financially.
- But there's an obvious corollary to the point above: the asking price for those late first-rounders could be going down, if we assume that drafting someone with a guaranteed salary may not be a good thing for many teams. However ...
- The guaranteed salary issue doesn't really matter as much to the Wizards because they only have six players under contract and have a ton of cap space they probably won't use. This means that we can probably snatch up a late first-round pick for less than usual.
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It does make sense to me
that we may be able to get a better deal at the trade deadline with our cap space than now.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Jun 14, 2010 12:56 AM EDT reply actions
first deadline
Isn’t the luxury tax deadline right after the draft? Fiscal year ends in June and begins with the Free Ageny period in July? If so we should be able to pull at least one extra pick out of this draft.
Once we start talking about next year’s draft things will open up. GMs have had a chance to get enamored with certain players and they want their picks. Next year? They don’t have a good handle on whats available so they’re much easier to give away.
From Salary Cap FAQ
This site has all your salary cap and Luxury tax answers…..
But to answer your question:
When determining the amount of tax a team owes, the league uses its team salary (see question number 14) on the date of their last regular season game (i.e., if a player is traded away before the end of the season, then none of his salary is taxed), with the following adjustments:
* Any player bonuses that were actually earned are added to the team salary.
* Any trade bonuses for players received in trade after the last season game are added
* Any amounts from settlements of grievances are added to the team salary.
* For players who signed as free agents (i.e., not draft picks), and make less than the two-year minimum salary, the minimum salary for a two-year veteran is used in place of their actual salary.
* For minimum salary players whose salary is partially paid by the league only the amount paid by the team is taxed.
So, to answer your question…. NO. We can no longer make a trade with a team and affect their 2009-10 Luxury Tax payment…. BUT we CAN make a trade and affect their 2010-11 Luxury Tax payment.
New Orleans, Los Angeles, Dallas, Orlando, Spurs, the Nuggets and Jazz (if they retain Boozer) are some of the teams that most likely will be over the Luxury Tax line in 2010-11…. and Indiana ($66 Million with 12 players under contract), Philadelphia, Boston and Houston (if Yao Ming stays) will be very close to paying the tax…. (depending on if the tax is set at $68 Million or $70 Million)… and depending on how they round out their respective rosters this year. (ie: 7-year veterans cost more than 2nd round draft picks)…
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Sorry
Here’s the link:
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
which
Which makes this just a deadline of sorts for picks this year. Ted wants another this year so I expect to see one.
For reasons I pointed to above GMs will be throwing around 2011 picks over the summer.
And because the 2011 draft class is likely to be one of the worst in years because of the uncertainty of the 2011 season. Many players declared this year when they might not have otherwise, and others will wait till 2012.
by Johnnie Futbol on Jun 14, 2010 10:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Another reason
I’d rather have an extra 2010 pick, than a 2011 pick…..
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
It would be a bit dissapointing, but.....
If that’s the market, that’s the market.
From Ted’s perspective, trades in season are going to be cheaper in that he’ll be acquiring the deadwood after a portion of their salary has already been paid out.
As to the aforementioned big fish in the late lottery, it seems to me that the means of acquiring them is in first scoring some late/mid picks and taking back some salary rather than finding a desperate sucker looking to slash $12 million outright with no talent coming back.
I'm convinced.
Also, while salaries for first round picks are guaranteed, they still won’t tie the team’s hands too much. If EG can keep his hands to himself and not just automatically offer contract extensions (hi, Pech), the Wizards will have options as to whether to keep the player(s) or use the freed up space to go after free agents, at a point when they might be in a better position to make some noise in the playoffs.
Ridiculous Upside, where developing talent and winning are not mutually exclusive.
I love the situation the Wizards are
in.
by Mikko Leinonen's opposite on Jun 14, 2010 4:04 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Given the relative financial desirability of second-round picks....
Would it make sense to do a draft night deal of cash plus the 35 pick for a low 20s pick held by a cash-poor team?
This assumes that a man we want is still on the board when an available pick comes around…. If so, then spending a few bucks to pick at 1, 18 and 30 is better than 1, 30 and 35.
That said, if there’s a chance to deal for Kirilenko (as opposed to Peja or Murphy) at this point, I would think the Wizards would have to look at that pretty seriously. Yes it is big money, but if the man’s health is reasonable, the defensive upgrade would be significant.
Interesting call, and it is nice for the team to have options like these for a change.
By cheap picks with cash, then trade up with BOYD
I think a combination of these moves makes the most sense. Hopefully, we could just buy, say, the #25 from Memphis using cash (with no salary tax implications). We could then offer the #25 to Miami in exchange for their #18 with the cost being that we have to absorb Dequan Cook’s $2.1M contract.
So for a total of $5.1M in Ted’s money, and cap hit of a mere $2.1M, we’d end up with the #18 pick plus a 1-year rental of Dequan Cook.
Where it gets complicated is if we continue to compound the process. Maybe we could take the #18 pick and move up to #11 by buying Mo Pete’s $6.2M contract off of New Orleans. It sounds great in a fantasy draft but I don’t know how feasible it is to pull off multiple consecutive trades like this in the NBA.
by nate33 on Jun 14, 2010 7:23 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
At #18, you get your pick of guys like:
Damion James, Hassan Whiteside , Daniel Orton , Larry Sanders
But at #11, there’s the chance to pick up a Xavier Henry, Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich or Ekpe Udoh.
I’m not sure if the cost ($8.3 Million ; Cook’s $2.1 and Peterson’s $6.2) is worth the upgrade in talent… but at least it’s WAY less than taking on Stojakovic’s $14 Million…
The other thing to consider is the locker room… The last thing we want to do is bring in players that will be a problem, demand playing time or generally disrupt an already delicate locker room situation. I don’t know much about Daequan Cook or Mo Pete…. Does anyone have any knowledge of their personalities? Any attitude problems?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Saving our powder
This is exactly what I was saying in another thread. Buy a draft pick. See how free agency plays out. If we don’t sign someone, then we can utilize the BOYD strategy at any time up until the trade deadline. If we do BOYD during the draft, I think taking on a small contract like Daquan Cook makes sense. We should hold onto #35, at least until the 2nd round starts, because that is a very valuable draft slot/asset. I’d be very happy if we end up with picks #1, #18, #30, and #35.
I agree that we should go with quantity over quality
Although #10 or 11 draft picks obviously pan out more frequently than those in the late first round, they are by no means a sure bet. If we have a lot of picks, we have a higher chance of grabbing one of those late round surprises (rajon rondo, gilbert arenas, jonas jerebko, etc).
ask Ted to read this blog Mike! lol
he must know about the options he has on the table.
already on top of that
I emailed him about his awareness of sports blogs, specifically this one. He responded saying he is aware and that he likes to be up to date on what his fans are thinking. Although, I’m sure he already knows his options regarding the draft, not like he needs us to tell him. I also don’t know if it was really him that responded, but whoever he’s working with reads bulletsforever, so that’s a plus.
Why aren't the Wizards working out more players?
Unless I missed something, there haven’t been workouts since June 3.
Middle
I was thinking of it the other way Mike, that there wasn’t a team that could truly compensate us for taking one of those big salaries off their payroll. Kurt Thomas/8M cost 2 first rounders IIRC. We’re talking about more than that. None of those teams have the right mix of prospects and picks to make it worth our while unless we lowered the cost to a single late lottery pick. i see no reason to do that because we will be able to get a mid-first pick for 5M or so in salary.
I want another pick in the middle of the first round. Miami at 18 is about as far down as I want to be. Yes there is a mass of talent and I want to pick from the top of that group and not the bottom. I want to be in position to take advantage when someone mysteriously slides. The goal being to get out of this draft with two rotation players and some developmental prospects.
As far as the value of late 1’s over early 2’s, I tend think that the late 1’s are perfect for the Wizards. While some GMs see guaranteed contracts I see the least expensive longer-term contracts available for developmental players. The team gets them for 3 years and roughly 2.65M. If they pan out we have the chance to extend it two more years before they hit the open market. Team also can choose not to tender them in their 4th year. Compare that to the second round where 2-year contracts are the norm with only Houston and San Antonio giving multi-year guarantees. The ones who hit can get away quicker.
Great Points - Also Makes #35 more Valuable
I think Mike is right that early 2nds will be worth more than late 1sts, so our #35 pick is now relatively high in value.
I also like the idea of compounding moves. I think the reason this is hard in reality is that picks are not purchased until that night, and we will then have very little time from when say we purchase #25, to then turn around and peddle #25 to Miami. If we had days to work this out, then sure, but at from an outsider perspective, it appears that all of the action really stops and starts on draft night, so there is a tight window to pull all of this off.
Picks for brokering deals
We’ve largely focused on deals that would be A to B and B back to A in nature. I think there is more to be had as a 3rd party who can take on salary to facilitate bigger deals.
Example: Darren Collison may be available if someone takes on Mo Pete or Posey. We don’t have much need for Collison but if we take on some $, Collison gets shipped out and the receiving team compensates us with a #1? Just an idea but with so many sign and trades coming this summer it makes sense to dos ome of these smaller deals and stock up.
The people who were in favor of resigning Livingston should also be in favor of adding Collison if the opportunity arises.
as would I
but the thinking being that we could turn him into more in terms of picks for other parts of the rotation. I think it would take Posey’s contract to get Collison.
One Salary that I wouldn't mind...
Taking on is Shane Battier’s $7mil contract in exchange for Houston’s 14th pick. The Rockets do no have any glaring needs on their roster and we would be taking their 3rd highest salary off their hands who was only averaging 8pts and 4 boards and will be 32 years old before the season starts. Not to mention it seems as if the rockets are going young with guys like aaron brooks, jordan hill, chase budinger, kevin martin, and kyle lowry. Taking that 7 mil off their hands could give them more of a chance to land a free agent to go with their promising roster.
The 14th pick is a great spot to be in. Guys like xavier henry, ed davis, patrick patterson, hassan whiteside and maybe even cole aldrich if he slips (doubtful) could be available. We wouldn’t be blowing our load by taking on battier’s contract and would still have a lot of cap room to work with. Not to mention Battier represents something we could really use. He D’s up, is all about the team, is a serious hustle player and could set a great example for our young guys. He would not complain about playing time and could be a great mentor.
If you wanted to take it a step further we could maybe purchase another first rounder such as miami’s 18 or atlanta’s 24 and either keep the pick and take a player or use them as an asset to move up. For example, you see a guy sitting at #10 or 11 that another team might take with the next pick before yours. by purchasing one of the other picks we could package them and move up. Trade #14 and #30 for # 11,, We would still end up with 3 first rounders at 1, 11, and either 18 or 24 which is pretty damn good. Plus we would still hold onto the 35th.
I agree if we could swing some kind of deal for him
Battier would set a great example on the court as well as the locker room for the young players. Not to mention, his hustle really does make a difference in overall team play.
by TheRealBigMike on Jun 14, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
How about Dunleavy and Hibbert?
We take back twelve million in salary next year in exchange for a decent young center who can guard the post and stick around the basket a la Haywood and a good locker room guy who can play some small forward for us. I don’t know if Indiana would be willing to do it, but it’d be worth trying. Hibbert obviously fouls too much, but it’s not a big deal if we’re splitting the minutes in the middle evenly between him and Javale with Dray in spot duty.
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Always loved Hibbert
and I was hoping the Wiz would take him in the 2008 draft at #18 – but Indiana beat us to the punch by picking him at #17
Problem is that I think Indiana loves Hibbert too….. and I don’t think they would part with him. Mobile 7-foot centers that can rebound, set picks and defend are not easy to come by.
As for the fouling thing? All young players foul too much… and most of them learn as they go along (and the referees learn the players too…..). His foul rate (per 40 minutes) went from 8.6 his Rookie year to 5.5 last year…. so it appears he’s getting it….
Compare that to JaVale McGee, who had a 5.5 foul rate (per 40 minutes) his Rookie year, but didn’t have nearly the drop that Hibbert did his second year. McGee fouled at a rate of 4.9 last year…. So it was better, but not by much.
I expect Hibbert will be down to the League average foul rate for starting Centers by his 4th season….
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