John Wall, Derrick Rose, and the State of the Wizards
Very interesting stuff from Wages of Wins.
almost 2 years ago
se7en
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WOW's Robbie O'Malley projects Wizards go 12-70 this season
Then we will have John Wall and a 2011 top-5 draft pick going into the 2011 season. Ignoring that Wall would have to be a bust for us to go 12-70 next season, and the prospect of a Wall and a top-5 pick is a Wizard fan’s dream.
Flawed, flawed, flawed
1. Assuming John Wall is not as good as advertised because he didn’t put up the numbers in College – without taking in to consideration that he played next to another likely First Round pick and NBA ready Point Guard in Eric Bledsoe; and that he played with three other likely First round picks (Patterson, Orton and Cousins) – belies the fact that Wall adjusted his game to accommodate the other great players on his team…..
This is using statistics to make a point – without analyzing those statistics for context.
Wall, playing on a different team (say like Ohio State), where he would have to be the be everything, do everything guy (like , say , Evan Turner?) would have put up much bigger numbers in College….. but because he played on a loaded Kentucky team, he’s only the 5th best player in this year’s draft because his PAWS40 [Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes] was only 9.97 ????
2. Robbie O’Malley taking the win shares for Blatche and McGee’s for the full year – doesn’t take into consideration the growth both showed AFTER the trades were made… ie: both would have better win shares if you based it on just the games AFTER the trade…
Same with Arenas…. to say that one of the most efficient scorers in the League a few years ago, cannot get more than a .089 WP48/2.1 Wins is just pathetic writing and a very subjective use of “statistics”… THIS is why statistics lie….. because people can manipulate them to say what they want to get across…. Does ANYONE really believe that a healthy Arenas will only garner a .089 WSP48 next year?
Very poor reporting…. illogical use of statistics…. and worst of all, no context…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
God Wages of Wins is so dumb
“Andray Blatche did play a little better once he became a starter.”
A little better? Really?
I normally like Wages of Wins a lot, but they've got a few problems here
1. Win shares don’t take into account the role a player plays. Delonte West would have been the best player on our team post-purge if you go solely by win shares/48. He’s a good player as a second or third option on the perimeter, spot up shooter, defender, and rebounder, but try to run an offense through him and you’ll finish the season with single figure wins. All our guys are going to be better being fed the ball by someone like Wall who may not have Livingston’s court vision (emphasis on the may) but is far superior as a playmaker thanks to his quickness.
2. We’ve got a lot of young guys who are improving. Dray was killed by his turnovers, but not running the offense through him will probably allow him to not force as many bad passes. Javale does better with more minutes, Nick Young might get more consistent and productive with an increased role and maybe become the MIchael Finley type we all know he can and should be.
3. Building on that, it doesn’t take into account changed roles next year. Gil will probably be more productive at shooting guard (well, maybe – his size helps him score against point guards, but he should be quick enough to make up for it when being guarded by the Joe Johnsons of the league). Nick Young will be spotting up more now that we’ve added two playmakers, since Gil is essentially an addition to this team.
That said, I still think we’ll suck, especially if anyone gets injured. And you know what, I’m fine with that. Losing has been tough, but if we can be exciting, I’m fine with it if it’ll lead to us getting another lottery pick to pair with Wall, Gil, Dray, McGee, and whoever we sign in 2011.
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Really?
Somebody archive this link…I want to print and use it as toilet paper while I’m drinking kool aid on the toilet as we make a push for the 8th seed…
We're from the city with the highest murder rate in the country. Why WOULDN'T they call us the Bullets?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Jun 3, 2010 2:51 AM EDT reply actions
I'm not disputing the final wins total they came up with
the Wizards very well could wind up with less than 30 wins this year….. It’s the WAY they used statistics to come up with their conclusions.
Do you honestly thing that Gilbert Arenas will score a a .089 WSP48 next year? That’s like saying you think Arenas will be LESS effective than Jamario Moon or JJ Hickson….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......






















