The "Bring Out Your Dead" strategy: Why it's the path the Wizards should take this summer
by Mike Prada on Apr 9, 2010 12:09 PM EDT
in Free Agency
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PrintEditor's Note: I can't take credit for the name "Bring Out Your Dead," because it comes from the Real GM Wizards board. They have a community of Wizards fans that, along with you guys here, are the smartest and most forward-thinking I've read. They've been talking about this strategy for a while and I figured I'd spell it out more clearly here.
This is going to be a pretty important summer for the Wizards. Obviously, they should have a high draft pick (hopefully #1!), and there's also the whole Gilbert Arenas situation to work through. But really, what makes this summer interesting is the cap space. How much cap space? Depending on what the NBA salary-cap numbers come out to be, the Wizards should have around $18.5 million to play with this summer and only six guys (counting Arenas) who are under contract.
The traditional way to fill this space is to actually sign players. There are definitely a lot of guys out there, whether it's max guys or cheaper players. Another alternative would be to re-sign our own players, most notably Josh Howard, Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Shaun Livingston and James Singleton.
But there's also a third path, which is saving most of that cap space until 2011 and using it then once we have a better idea about the state of the team. This doesn't necessarily mean we completely sit out of the free agent market, because there are guys like Livingston who really need to be re-signed at a decent price. But the general strategy is this: keep your long-term salary commitments minimal until we have more of a structural foundation.
In the meantime - the Wizards still do need to fill out a team for next year. They'll likely get three new players in the draft, and re-signing Livingston pushes the roster to 10, but that still leaves some openings. To fill those, we now turn to the "Bring Out Your Dead" strategy.
In a nutshell, the "Bring Out Your Dead" strategy means what it describes. The idea is to look around the league for teams that are likely to pay the luxury tax next year and offer to take one of their bad 2011 contracts off their hands as long as they throw in another asset. That asset could be a first-round draft pick or a young player that's shown a lot of potential, but either way, it would be a sufficient price for them to pay to solve their luxury-tax problems.
The beauty of this strategy is that's it's clearly a win-win for both teams. Because the Wizards are under the cap, they do not need to match salary in these trades, which allows the team in financial peril to immediately save a ton of money on their payroll. They might lose an asset in the process, but the financial relief is too important, and they would also be taking one more step toward clearing enough payroll to replace that asset in the future. For the Wizards, it allows them to stockpile more young players with potential, which will accelerate the rebuilding effort. It'll also allow them to do that in a way that's fiscally responsible, since they wouldn't be taking on any big contracts that last beyond the 2010/11 season.
There isn't a ton of history with the "Bring Out Your Dead" strategy, because teams have never been in as much financial peril as they are today. However, there is one team that has used the strategy perfectly: the Oklahoma City Thunder. In the summer of 2008, the Thunder executed the mother of all BYOD trades, sending a mere second-round pick to the Suns in return for Kurt Thomas and his $8 million contract, as well as two first-round picks. The Suns saved $8 million dollars, but the Thunder got two additional assets that they used to acquire Thabo Sefolosha (in a trade) and Serge Ibaka. This year, the Thunder gave the Jazz some major luxury-tax relief, taking Matt Harpring off their hands in a package with promising young point guard Eric Maynor. Oklahoma City hasn't won a championship or anything because of these moves, but they've made their team significantly better and younger.
BYOD's gaining traction too among other teams. The Rockets, for example, took on Jared Jeffries' 2011 contract from the Knicks and also got a bundle of goodies - Jordan Hill and two draft picks that have very limited protection. The Rockets gave the Knicks more cap room, but came away with a ton of future assets they can now use to get much better. The Grizzlies made a similar move at the deadline, taking Ronnie Brewer off the Jazz's hands for nothing. With a lockout looming in 2011, there will only be more sellers looking to dump payroll. The Wizards, with cap space, have a great opportunity to capitalize on those teams' desperation.
Which teams are good BYOD trading partners? To determine that, let's take a look at who is likely to pay the luxury tax next season. This year's luxury tax figure was $69.92 million, and it'll probably drop to a lot lower than that this summer. Here are teams that are expected to have more than $65 million committed in salary next year.
- Boston, once they re-sign Paul Pierce and sign other guys
- Charlotte, if they re-sign Raymond Felton and Tyrus Thomas
- Cleveland, if they re-sign LeBron
- Dallas
- Denver
- Houston, if they re-sign Luis Scola
- Indiana
- LA Lakers
- New Orleans
- Orlando
- Philadelphia
- Phoenix, if they re-sign Amare Stoudemire
- San Antonio
- Toronto, unless they don't replace Chris Bosh with anyone
- Utah, if they re-sign Carlos Boozer
So ... yeah, that's a lot of teams. Obviously some of those teams have more of a capacity to pay the luxury tax than others, but that's still half the league. Let's break this down further.
| Team | "Bad" 2011 contracts | Assets |
| Boston | Glen Davis ($3 million) | 2010 late first-round pick (21st) |
| Charlotte |
Tyson Chandler ($12.6 million) Nazr Mohammad ($6.8 million) |
DJ Augustin |
| Cleveland |
Jamario Moon ($3 million) Sebastian Telfair ($2.7 million) |
|
| Dallas | DeShawn Stevenson ($4.1 million) |
Nick Cathales
|
| Denver | J.R. Smith ($6.9 million) | |
| Houston |
Shane Battier ($7.4 million) Jared Jeffries ($6.8 million) |
2010 lottery pick (13th) Jordan Hill 2011 and 2012 high picks |
| Indiana |
Troy Murphy ($11.9 million) Mike Dunleavy ($10.6 million) T.J. Ford ($8.5 million) Jeff Foster ($6.5 million |
2010 lottery pick (10th) AJ Price |
| LA Lakers | Sasha Vujacic ($5.5 million) | Josh Powell |
| New Orleans |
Peja Stojakovic ($14.2 million) Morris Peterson ($6.2 million) Darius Songaila ($4.8 million |
2010 lottery pick (11th) |
| Orlando | None | 2010 late first-round pick (28th) |
| Philadelphia |
Samuel Dalembert ($12.9 million) Jason Kapono ($6.6 million) Willie Green ($4 million) |
2010 lottery pick (7th) |
| Phoenix | Jason Richardson ($14.4 million) | |
| San Antonio |
Richard Jefferson ($15.2 million) Antonio McDyess ($4.8 million) |
2010 first-round pick (20th) |
| Toronto |
Reggie Evans ($5.1 million) Marcus Banks ($4.8 million) |
DeMar DeRozan |
| Utah | Andrei Kirilenko ($17.8 million) |
2010 lottery pick (9th) Wesley Matthews Kosta Koufus |
You get the point - there are opportunities to be had if you pair one bad contract with one asset. The possibilities are out there. Again, the benefit is that, if you think of this franchise's long-term future, you're essentially picking up a good young player for nothing. The 2011 contract doesn't matter, since we're thinking long term rather than short term. In some cases, the 2011 contract might even be a good player, or even better, a veteran that carries himself in a professional matter and can help set a good example for the young guys.
The downside is that we're essentially treating 2011 as a throwaway season. But let's get real, 2011 was going to be a throwaway season anyway. The one thing this franchise has done too often is go for the quick-fix rebuild when it isn't merited. Right now, it isn't merited. Our best young player is Andray Blatche, who is talented and has defintiely improved, but also hasn't demonstrated the type of maturity to be a franchise cornerstone (and that comes from one of his biggest fans). We have literally no idea what we're going to get from our highest-paid player down the road. Our other young players have a lot of development left to go through. We have a ton of free agents this summer, many of which are the type of guys you have to avoid signing unless you really think you're close to a title. There is no better time than to commit to a long-term strategy of team building.
The first step to long-term building is tearing down the old foundation. We did that. Now, the next step is assembling assets and figuring out which ones stay and which ones go. To do that, we have to turn to the "Bring Out Your Dead" approach. We need those assets, and this is one ingenious way to get them.
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Great article Mike
I might link over to this on StR.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
I am a very big fan of this approach
I would want, however, the Wizards to do this for at least two seasons, not just one. To rebuild properly, the Wizards need to take time and accumulate assets.
I saw that headline
and thought of the English Pub I go to where the owner says exactly that when he removes empty glasses. And it made me smile. This is an excellent article but some of those teams you listed (Dallas, Lakers and maybe the Spurs) aren’t that worried about the lux tax aren’t they. Yes to using next year to rebuild. Yes to trying to build our cap space for 2011 so that the Wizards can take a run at Kevin Durant!
"I say he does have to shoot me now! So shoot me now!" --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Apr 9, 2010 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
"They'll likely get three new players in the draft."
God, let’s hope the ownership transaction goes through … because if the Pollins are still around, you might have to amend that to say, “The Wizards are likely to sell two of their picks for cash.”
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
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Even if it doesn't
I couldn’t imagine the picks getting sold this year. Cap space, no luxury tax, and the team going the way of the dude’s head in Scanners this season, suddenly you have all the need in the world for as much young talent as is possible.
That's right, I said the Wizards would win 49 games in 09-10. Free advice is sometimes worth what you pay.
Indiana looks like an ideal BOYD trade partner...
A Team that should be desperate to get under the Luxury Tax. They have assets the Wizards should want:
Brandon Rush is a good perimeter defender, and he can hit the 3
I have always liked Hansbrough
and I’d love to get that 1st round pick
Plus Indiana looks like they’ll be about $14 Million over the Luxury Tax….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
how did Indiana get in that much salary cap trouble
there team is horrid. They do have some nice young guys though. That 1st round pick is high and I really like Rush. I’ll pass on Hansbrough though
I'm Stupidly Optimistic
The downside is that we’re essentially treating 2011 as a throwaway season. But let’s get real, 2011 was going to be a throwaway season anyway. The one thing this franchise has done too often is go for the quick-fix rebuild when it isn’t merited.
I may be stupidly optimistic, but I think there is a way to compete next year and still implement the BYOD strategy. Right now, I see 3 potential All-Stars we can suit up for next season – Arenas if he continues to shake off the rust from his knee injury (I think he was already starting to do this before he got suspended), Blatche if he continues to improve his court awareness and continues to adjust to double-teams (he has already raised his season PER to 17.1, despite having a mediocre PER for the first half of the season), and Josh Howard if he can get his game back to where it was for us before his knee injury. Two of those guys are already under contract, and J-Ho can be had for a relatively cheap price because he is coming off an ACL tear (I’m going to hazard a guess of $6 million per year to start with 8% raises for 3 to 4 seasons).
Now consider if we get a top 2 draft pick. Either Wall or Turner gives us a potential 4th All-Star in the backcourt with Gil. Our only hole would be center, which we could try to patch (or at least complement McGee) through our late 1st and 2nd round picks. We could then resign Livingston to be our backup to Gil or Wall at the point for a good salary of $3 million per season (I think he’s played himself up to that salary and might leave if we don’t offer it to him). We can also resign Singleton to about $2 million per season to ensure we have his services. We can then renounce Miller and Foye and let them both walk. That leaves us with the following roster (remaining cap space figures based on a projected cap figure of $53 million):
#1 Overall Pick
===============
PG John Wall $ 4,286,900
PG Shaun Livingston $ 3,000,000
SG Gilbert Arenas $17,730,693
SG Nick Young $ 2,630,503
SG Quinton Ross $ 1,146,337
SF Josh Howard $ 6,000,000
SF Al Thornton $ 2,814,196
PF Andray Blatche $ 3,260,331
PF James Singleton $ 2,000,000
C JaVale McGee $ 1,601,040
C 30th Pick Overall $ 850,800
C 2nd Round Pick $ 473,604
===========
Total Salaries: $45,794,404
Remaining Cap Space: $ 7,205,596
#2 Overall Pick
===============
PG Gilbert Arenas $17,730,693
PG Shaun Livingston $ 3,000,000
SG Evan Turner $ 3,835,600
SG Nick Young $ 2,630,503
SG Quinton Ross $ 1,146,337
SF Josh Howard $ 6,000,000
SF Al Thornton $ 2,814,196
PF Andray Blatche $ 3,260,331
PF James Singleton $ 2,000,000
C JaVale McGee $ 1,601,040
C 30th Pick Overall $ 850,800
C 2nd Round Pick $ 473,604
===========
Total Salaries: $45,343,104
Remaining Cap Space: $ 7,656,896
With Wall/Turner, Arenas, J-Ho, and Blatche in the starting lineup, assuming Arenas and J-Ho return to form, I think we have a playoff caliber team if not more. And we still have between $7.2 and $7.6 million in cap space to play with. And if we needed to absorb an even bigger salary, say T.J. Ford’s $8.5 million salary, we could also dump Quinton Ross’s cheap contract to get there. This is the best of both world’s to me, and the direction I think we should take.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
I’m not sure how/why a team of Wall/Turner, Arenas, Josh Howard returning from injury, Blatche and Livingston is that much better than a team of Arenas, Jamison, Butler, Haywood and Blatche, which was terrible. And what would be the ceiling for that team next season? Maybe 7th best in the Eastern Conference? Maybe less because of the gaping hole at center?
I do agree, however, that if the Wizards land Wall or Turner that they have more options available to them in terms of a strategy going forward than if they land a lower pick, in which case the strategy Mike outlines in his post is really the only good option.
You are Still Thinking of the Jamison and Butler of Two Seasons Ago
I’m not sure how/why a team of Wall/Turner, Arenas, Josh Howard returning from injury, Blatche and Livingston is that much better than a team of Arenas, Jamison, Butler, Haywood and Blatche, which was terrible.
Those players are gone forever. Jamison really fell off this season, posting his worst PER in 5 seasons. He has regressed even further in Cleveland, despite the talent around him. Blatche since the All-Star break has been already better than Jamison was for us and should get even better with better players around him. Don’t forget that Blatche didn’t play nearly as much before Antawn got traded and has really stepped up his game with more playing time. Meanwhile, Caron has degenerated into a below-average player, while J-Ho posted a 19.3 PER for us in the 4 games he played before injury.
And what would be the ceiling for that team next season? Maybe 7th best in the Eastern Conference? Maybe less because of the gaping hole at center?
Like you alluded to, it all depends on being able to patch our hole at center. I’m looking at two big, defensive centers for our 30th and 2nd round picks – Artsiom Parakhouski and Dexter Pittman. I wouldn’t expect much out of those guys offensively, but if they can contribute solid defense for us, then I think our ceiling could be as high as 5th or 6th seed, if everything comes together well. There is a lot that can go wrong with my plan (a lot hinges on Arenas’s and Howard’s knee recoveries), but if things go right we could be a much, much better team than we were this season.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Two problems with that
1. It’s pretty unlikely that the Wizards will get Wall or Turner
2. It’s unlikely that Howard will be able to come back and be a good player next year (and remember that even if he does, he’ll miss a large part of the season)
I think the Wizards are better off with a patient approach. They’ll be waiting on Blatche, the draft pick and McGee to peak, and shouldn’t be signing players that will be on the decline as those guys are reaching their prime. No Howard, no Miller, no free agents over 27 at all. Livingston fits this plan really well. So would additional draft picks or the assets that Mike is talking about. That’s not saying the team shouldn’t get better, or should make moves that postpone rebuilding (I think that’s a mistake), just that they should focus on obtaining some quality younger players, and recognize that next year probably won’t be a great year.
Howard is a Big ?
I’ll grant you that. ACL recoveries are tricky to predict. Right now, he is projected to be back no later than mid-November (they projected a 6-8 month recovery after his surgery in mid-March). We all know that such timetables are far from gospel. However, I am optimistic because Howard apparently did not have his surgery done by team doctors, but instead waited several weeks before having the operation done by a doctor in New York (I can’t find details on who, but I’m optimistic he/she is a world-class ACL specialist).
If his surgery was done by an expert (read – not a Wizards doctor), then perhaps he can actually make a full recovery in the projected time-frame. Plus, because he is coming off the injury, he can be had for relatively cheap. Had he continued to post his big numbers for the rest of this season, he would have probably played himself out of our price range.
It is certainly a gamble, but one in which I think is worth taking. The payoff could potentially be huge for us.
1. It’s pretty unlikely that the Wizards will get Wall or Turner
Well, it is possible, and didn’t I already say I am stupidly optimistic?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Agree on all points
Remember though how poorly Howard was playing with Dallas, and that 4 games is really a tiny sample size. In those 4 games it seemed to me that Howard was throwing up a lot of tough shots and making more than he had any right to. That kind of thing tends to average out over time.
He Played Like He Wanted to Be Here
I think the change in scenery on a team that valued him helped him to bring more desire to the court. It’s a big gamble, but if we stick with him through his injury, he may reward us with inspired play.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Please no more 41 win seasons
The NBA has by far the dumbest salary cap structure around. It literally encourages teams to suck so they can improve. It’s so good at it that they had to install a method of making sucking less desirable called the lottery. Teams though every year set out to suck and nab that next super star because it is the best most proven strategy around.
This is exactly what the Wizards should do. Being a middle road team in the NBA guarantee a mid round play off exit and a sub par draft pick the next season and that’s about it. We have cap space for the first time in forever. I dont want to see us throw it away unless we are going to go for broke.
Why Do We Have to Suck First?
This has been argued on another thread, but I’ll bring it up here because so many continue to believe the myth that you have to completely suck and stay very young before you can win a championship. Nothing could be further from the truth. Before LA won, they had many, many 41ish win seasons. The Heat were a mediocre playoff team before grabbing an old Shaq. The Celtics sucked before they won their championship, but did so with very old players that they acquired. San Antonio hasn’t been young or bad in over a decade. They have always been able to use their “sub par draft pick”s to acquire key contributors to future championship teams.
Besides, we’ve sucked for two straight seasons already, we will most likely get a top 5 pick, and the oldest player on my proposed roster list above is 29 year old Josh Howard. Not to mention that we would still have lots of cap space, which you apparently didn’t catch in my original post.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
roster differences
LA – Kobe and Shaq
Miami – Wade and Shaq
Boston – KG, Pierce and Allen
San Antonio – Duncan, Parker, Ginoboli and Robinson
Name anyone on the current Bullets roster that belongs in that list. The closest compariosn would be the Heat if we somehow manage to stumble into a true franchise player in the next couple of years. But Miami won by Wade barrelling into the paint and getting every call. That probably won’t happen again.
Roster Difference Explained
LA – Shaq acquired in a trade by a mediocre playoff team, Kobe drafted with a “sub par” 13th overall draft pick
Miami – Wade drafted 5th overall (don’t we have a huge chance for a top 5 pick?), Shaq acquired in a trade by a mediocre playoff team
Boston – KG, Pierce, Allen = very old players traded for by exchanging “sub par” draft picks acquired by being a mediocre 41ish playoff team for several seasons
San Antonio – Duncan acquired by #1 overall pick despite being only the 3rd worst team in the league the season before (why not us this season?), Parker drafted by a “sub par” draft pick very late in the first round (hey, don’t we have a very late 1st round pick?), Ginobli drafted by a “sub par” draft pick in the 2nd round (hey, don’t we have a 2nd round pick?), Robinson doesn’t really count because I was only referring to the Spurs this past decade
So which of those teams needed to suck for several seasons before making it big? The answer is not a single one of them. Sucking is so overrated.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Correction
Boston – KG, Pierce, Allen = very old players traded for by exchanging "sub par" draft picks acquired by being a mediocre 41ish playoff team for several seasons
Obviously Pierce was not traded for. He was instead acquired using a “sub par” 10th overall draft pick.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
I didn't say we have to suck for multiple years
But i would RATHER suck for years if it’s part of the plan then sit through another stretch of 41-45 win seasons, hoping to make it into the 2nd round. I was never a big fan of the “Big 3” teams.
We Haven't Actually Been a "Big 3" Team in Years
We were a “Big 2” team our last playoff appearance with Arenas hobbling around on his gimpy knee, and were a “Big 1” team the season before that with Jamison being the only guy healthy. By the time we got all 3 healthy, 2 of our “Big 3” weren’t very big anymore.
There is nothing wrong with building around 3 star players, but they have to be legitimate stars and they have to stay healthy. The model wasn’t necessarily wrong, but sometimes you have to know when to cut your losses. I think we’ve already done that now by trading Caron and Jamison away and getting back good assets in return.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
I wasn't saying the model was wrong
Just that it fed the “we’ll be contenders next year” mentality. That’s what I hated. I never thought those teams were good enough to make it out of the east anyway.
We'll Never Know
I never thought those teams were good enough to make it out of the east anyway.
If only we stayed healthy! “If if and buts were candy and nuts, oh what a Christmas it would be!”
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
The Lakers got so lucky
and you know that. Them nabbing Kobe with the Valde trade was the steal of the decade just like the Mavericks getting Dirk was. These mid round superstars happen very rarely and my two examples were the only two I could think of in the last twenty years.
I will give you San Antonio but they had alot of luck riding with them as well. They chose to suck the year Tim Duncan came out and they have ridden that one year of suckitude ever since. There time is coming though as Tim Duncan is finally running out of steam.
Your proposal involves huge risk without much reward. The team you proposed , if everything works out, will be good but not great. We all know what good gets you in the NBA. I admire the optimism and usually I would be right there with you but im tired of just competing. The way to win in this league is with a superstar that can carry the team. Usually one sometimes two ( lets just exclude the fluke that was the 2003 draft ) superstars come out every year. The more shots we get at a top 5 pick and the better we improve our chances of nabbing a franchise cornerstone.
Don’t get me wrong I dont want to suck for ever ( i.e. Clippers ) but I don’t think one more year of sucking would hurt that bad.
Oh yeah just a random side not the 2000 draft was just utter hot garbage. What a complete lack luster uninspiring collection of talent.
Most Championship Teams
Start out as good but not great teams. You seem to imply that we’ll never get as “lucky” as all of those other championship teams that never needed to suck (or only sucked very briefly) to build their team into championship caliber contenders. I would argue that good, well-run teams make their own luck. Neither the Lakers nor the Spurs nor the Pistons have had a sub-30 win team in over a decade, yet all three were able to turn their “sub par” draft picks into championship gold while never completely rebuilding. Both the Celtics and the Heat needed only one bad and one somewhat bad season to finish their rebuilding projects before they became championship caliber.
Meanwhile, the teams that have been sucking for years are only just now mediocre playoff teams. I think I’d rather follow the other model. Sucking is overrated.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
"I think I’d rather follow the other model."
You’re in luck, then — your Wizards have been following the never-rebuilding model now for about 25 years to rave reviews.
I Would Argue
That they’ve been rebuilding for the past 25 years. Isn’t that what you are doing when you rarely make the playoffs?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
That’s what you SHOULD do when you rarely make the playoffs. But that’s not what the Bullets/Wizards have done, in my opinion. The Wizards have only properly rebuilt one time in the last 20 years (again, in my opinion), and that is when Jordan was GM.
Well
My point is, most of the past champions didn’t “properly” rebuild either, if that means planning to suck. We just need to be smart with our draft picks, make shrewd trades, and wait for the right opportunity to cash in with a big trade.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
As Far as Riding a Superstar Goes
I’m not giving up hope yet that Arenas can return to form, and I’m not giving up hope that we can’t get one in this draft. We’ve been unlucky for so damn long, we just have to be due for a break!
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
I really don't see Howard being healthy next year
at any point during the season I don’t think any team will sign him before the season, instead waiting it out to see how his recovery goes. That’s really unfortunate for him because he won’t have access to a team’s medical staff. Later on in the year, teams might bring him in for tryouts and a team might sign him, but I don’t think he’ll be the same player until 2011-2012, if then.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Apr 9, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
boy that 17mm for arenas sure sticks out like a sore thumb, doesnt it? how many years is he still under contract…uggh!
by les boulez bomber on Apr 9, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
New Orleans
Has the best assets easily. If we could get all 3 of them that would be great. And there bad contracts could actually be servicable players during their year here.
Finally,
Please draft Evan Turner, even over John Wall
It's easy to suggest this when its not your money
Hey I am all about spending other peoples cash but putting myself in Ted’s it becomes a different matter. I just can’t imagine Ted okaying this move. We would basically be condemning ourselves to a minimum of four losing seasons in a row. That is hard for any fan to stomach.
I think OKC was able to pull this off because they had a developing Super Star in Kevin Durantt. We have Arenas who is collecting almost 20 million a year and just got convicted for a felony. In other words its okay to watch an up and coming star surrounding with his young gifted role players try and mostly lose but its just lame to watch a 20 Mil " super star " semi try and lose. If we can nab a player like say John Wall then I think our owner and the general public would go for it otherwise thats a lot of losing coupled with the owner shelling out alot of cash to support that losing.
My last point is that the Wizards are in desperate need of some good PR and I don’t think announcing to the general public that they are going to suck for the foreseeable future as being one of the better routes. So this is a good strategy just not one I see the Wizards capable of undertaking.
I disagree
I think this is exactly the thing he would want to do. He likes the idea of a complete rebuild. He would like getting extra draft picks. Good things can happen when you have multiple first round picks.
ccrunn makes a good point
Pursuit of this strategy can be a hard sell to your fan base.
On the flipside, though, (1) Leonsis has already pursued this strategy once with the Caps; (2) as Wheez states, he likes the idea/understands the necessity of a complete rebuild; (3) there are many Wizards fans who are tired of the Wizards’ repeated efforts to squeeze into the playoffs with a 43 win team, and understand the need to rebuild properly; and (4) being the anti-Dan Snyder (i.e., not rushing out to use cap space to sign someone else’s almost star, but instead building through the draft) will win Leonsis many fans in this town.
by disgrunted on Apr 9, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would love the Wiz to be the Anti Dan Snyder
I just think to pull off a strategy like this we need an impact player to keep the seats filled until we become a good team. I don’t see that player being Gilbert with all the animosity he has built up so I am pinning my hopes on the Draft and us finding the next franchise cornerstone. If we get that part right then let the sucking begin.
He did this with the Caps and that worked out fine, didn't it?
Besides, he’s not spending all that much more money than he would anyway. The difference is that it’s just one year instead of several.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
All the good free agent centers are in the 2011 free agency class
One of the primary reasons to do a BOYD deal is that the top notch free agents in this class either won’t come here (Lebron, Wade), don’t fit a need (Bosh, Amare, Boozer, Lee) or are too old/too expensive for a rebuilding team (Joe Johnson). The only top tier free agent that makes any sense at all is Rudy Gay, and I think he’ll end up being overpaid when the dust settles.
Next year is a completely different story. Assuming McGee remains inconsistent on D, we’re going to need a big man who can defend the paint. As luck would have it, Horford, Noah, Perkins and Marc Gasol all all free agents in 2011 (and so is Dalembert if we strike out on the other 4). Only Perkins is unrestricted, but Horford and Noah play on teams with notoriously cheap ownership. We have a pretty decent shot at signing one of them if we have the money.
So the goal should be to remain substantially under the cap in 2011. Basically, we have $20M in cap space, and nothing to do with it for a whole year. We may as well try to use it to acquire the best young picks/prospects we can find in a BOYD trade. Yeah, next season might only be a 33-win season instead of a 40-win season, but the payoff is worth it. In Summer 2011, we’ll be adding a higher draft pick and hopefully a first-rate defensive center.
by nate33 on Apr 9, 2010 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Excellent Points
I rec’d it. But I would point out that even if we undertook my plan above and tried to make the playoffs, we would still have cap room for a max contract in 2011-12, assuming the salary cap doesn’t continue to shrink. Arenas and Blatche are currently the only two guaranteed salaries for that season for us.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Howard or #11 pick?
Basically, you are arguing that a 30-year-old, broken-down Josh Howard is better for this team in the long run than the #11 pick in the draft. I don’t agree. I’d much rather have Vesely, for example.
Interesting
If New Orleans goes for this, it might be better. It’s hard to tell. There is a lot of risk in hoping that a #11 pick pans out, but there is also a lot of risk in hoping that a player can return from an ACL tear and give close to the same production.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
maybe
IMHO that’s actually a lot to give to the Hornets for an #11 pick. That would save the Hornets $14 million or so, while wiping out much of the Wizards cap space. I’d expect the Hornets to do that in a heartbeat, but I wonder if the Wizards can do better with that money.
by Johnnie Futbol on Apr 9, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with Rook and Matt Lilly
I like Indiana and New Orleans for BOYD trade partners.
We could really use Tyler Hansbrough on our team. The more energy, hustle, and good locker room guys like Hansbrough and Singleton the better it is for a young team like ours. Plus Hansbrough is a winner and he’s smart, so that will only help our team’s collective basketball IQ.
Brandon Rush is solid and will continue to get better.
With the Hornets, obviously Collison and Thorton makes a lot of sense.
Excellent agenda-setting article
Discussions of GM-decisions such as acquisitions and strategy can sometimes be difficult on a blog because many of us do not have the time to do the necessary research. This article helps level the playing field for this discussion by giving all of us here at BF the tools needed to evaluate the BOYD strategy. Best piece since the Arenas-compatible SG’s piece from last summer. Thank you Mike.
Followup question: Any chance EG’s replaced before the draft? You would think Leonsis would want to leave his imprint on a decision which will be one of top-five factors in how Wizards fare over the next five seasons.
When Does Leonsis Officially Take Over?
Answering that question would give us a really good idea on what the chances are of getting a new GM before the draft.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Don't You Want to Wait and Find Out Who His Replacement is First?
“…don’t ever think it can’t get any worse, because it can. There’s no question, it can.”
The Washington Wizards would like to announce that they’ve hired their new general manager from their assistant coaching ranks – Wes Unseld Jr.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
We want a Pritchard
not a belly-itcher.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Apr 9, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Now that is NOT funny!
"I say he does have to shoot me now! So shoot me now!" --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Apr 9, 2010 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
COME WEST, NICK YOUNG. YOUR FANS WANT TO SEE MORE OFF YOU. I SEE AN TRADE IN YOUR FUTURE.
straight talk
by Mae.jude@yahoo.com on Apr 9, 2010 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I like this strategy
Apparently the Hornets may have a change of ownership in the near future. If the current owner really is planning to sell, my guess is he’ll pursue a similar strategy to the one the Pollin family employed. They’ll practically give away their young assets for cap relief.
Philly actually stands out to me
That #7 pick is really attractive. They’ve been trying to dump Dalembert for some time now. and we should take him off their books to acquire their lottery pick. Dalembert and McGee might combine to the equivalent of a solid paint presence. Depending on what we do with our earlier pick, we can complement that selection with the #7. Early on we can look at Wall, Turner, and Cousins. Later on we might be looking at Wesley Johnson, Aminu, Aldrich, Monroe, Whiteside, Udoh, Ed Davis, or one of the Euros.
Similarly, I like the Hornets and Pacers potential too. But I’m more of a fan of the lottery picks than the current players on those teams. Especially since the 7-11 range has some very athletic bigs.
I was also thinking Philly
Because they also have Kapono, who stinks, and they have several decent young prospects in addition to their lottery pick.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Gilbert is not a 2 guard
I hate people who mention that idea, especially when they think it’s novel like they split an atom or something.
He does not move off the ball well. He must create with the ball in his hands.
Do you realize that’s been the Gilbert dilemma since Arizona?
Man…..square peg round hole people.
I want us to resign Livingston and Singleton
and fill out the rest of the squad with young D-league type guys. Once you spend that cap money it starts the clock on your “Contending Window”. I’d rather use the cap space smartly acquire some pieces for depth by taking on contracts and wait to spend that money till we feel we are 1-2 pieces away.
Forgive me if this has been covered, but don’t you have to trade at least 75% back when doing a salary dump? What are the Wiz going to trade for Dalembert?
by ReturnofBillyJOe on Apr 9, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions
The rule only applies when both teams are over the cap
The Wizards are currently projected to be significantly under the cap, so they don’t need to match salary in trades.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Side deals
Wiz can also ‘rent out’ some of their space by being the third team in a trade a la Memphis. Getting cash can help to soften the blow rebuilding teams feel at the gate.
by Jheiser3 on Apr 10, 2010 9:51 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
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