Breaking down the lottery standings
by Mike Prada on Apr 12, 2010 2:38 PM EDT
in Team Analysis
Email
PrintBecause this stuff matters:
- Nets: 12-68
- Timberwolves: 15-65
- Warriors: 25-55
- Kings: 25-55
- Wizards: 25-55
- Pistons: 26-54
- 76ers: 27-53
As you can see, we're currently tied for third with the Kings and Warriors. The Pistons lurk one game back, and the 76ers could still tie us. Theoretically, we could finish anywhere from third to seventh.
Before we get to the schedules, let's first thank the Oklahoma City Thunder for blowing a 20-point lead against the Warriors last night. The basketball gods, apparently angered by Flip Saunders' constant referencing of them in post-game press conferences, did everything they could to change the outcome. First, the refs missed an obvious backcourt violation, allowing the Thunder to cut the lead to three with 15 seconds left. Then, Monta Ellis, normally a very reliable free throw shooter, bricked two freebies, giving the Thunder a chance to tie. The two teams played the fouling game for a while until the Thunder still trailed by three with nine seconds left. The Warriors, predictably, failed miserably at trying to foul, giving Eric Maynor a wide open look at a three. But for some reason, he passed it up, and the Thunder played hot potato before Kevin Durant finally missed a contested three.
So thank you, Warriors. We'll repay you someday.
Now, here are the remaining schedules for everyone:
- WIZARDS: Monday at New York, Wednesday vs. Indiana
- WARRIORS: Tuesday vs. Utah, Wednesday at Portland
- KINGS: Monday vs. Houston, Wednesday at LA Lakers
- PISTONS: Monday vs. Toronto, Wednesday at Minnesota
- 76ERS: Monday vs. Miami, Wednesday at Orlando
So ... yeah, on paper, it looks like we have the easiest schedule. Detroit has a pretty easy one too, with Toronto playing terribly and the Timberwolves being the Timberwolves. But both of our final two games are very winnable, even with the Pacers playing at a really high level right now. Golden State has two games against teams in the thick of the playoff race, as does Philly. Sacramento's a wild card because of how good they are at home and the fact that Houston played a tough game in Phoenix last night, but they could also easily lose both of their final two games.
In other words, to ensure a top three pick, we're going to have to lose winnable games, and even then, we're probably going to be tied with somebody. That means it'll go to a coin flip to see who gets more ping pong combinations. That didn't turn out so well last time.
35 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Much as I want a high lottery pick...
I really think Indiana would be an excellent measure of how much progress we’ve made thus far…
We're from the city with the highest murder rate in the country. Why WOULDN'T they call us the Bullets?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Apr 12, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions
Actually
Our last coin flip did turn out well. It was our subsequent luck in the lottery that did not.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
But if we lost the coin flip, we would have had the combination to get the number one pick
That’s the point.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
But Nobody Knew That at the Time
And who’s to say that if we had lost the coin flip, that the butterfly effect wouldn’t have caused a different combination of ping pong balls to come up? Who’s to say that if we win the last two games, and everybody else on the above list loses the last two, and we proceed to lose the coin flip with the 76ers, that that wouldn’t be exactly what we needed to do to get the combination for John Wall? Why should we hope for anything other than actual lottery luck, no matter where we end up in the standings?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
cuppett, it was a joke
Meant for the reader to chuckle rather than take it too seriously. Obviously, I failed at conveying that to you.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
My Bad
For not catching the joke. But my reply above was also a comment on the whole article. Haven’t we been here before? We take solace in losing, because that means more ping pong balls. We cheer when we win a coin flip that gives us more ping pong balls. And then fate or luck or whatever you want to call it renders it all moot. This is why I wouldn’t mind if we won the last two games and let the chips fall where they may. Even if we did everything right to set ourselves up, we could still get leapfrogged 3 times and wind up with the 6th pick. We might as well play to win and hope to win. That’s the point I would like to convey.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
I figured that it's still worth putting up the standings regardless of how people feel about "tanking"
We haven’t put them up anywhere on the front page yet, and it is important to think about.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Fair Enough
I’m not criticizing the whole idea of the article, I just wanted to put my two cents in.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
And those two cents are much appreciated
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Butterfly effect?
You mean “Wizards effect”.
We have a lot of ping pong balls, we lose out. We win the lottery, we get Kwame.
by MR on Apr 12, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Difference of Definitions
Butterfly Effect = a metaphor that encapsulates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory; namely that small differences in the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system.
Wizards Effect = a recently created metaphor by posters on the BulletsForever blog that encapsulates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory; namely that small differences in the initial condition of a dynamical system will produce large negative variations in the long term behavior of the system to the detriment of the Washington Wizards franchise.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
But it isn't just about ping pong balls!
It’s also about resultant pick if we don’t luck out in the lottery. And that’s huge. Winning against IN and NY is meaningless. Ending up with the 4th pick instead of the 7th pick, by comparison, is huge.
am i crazy to think
that i would be ok with any top 6 lottery pick and a version of the same team (minus miller but w/ arenas) going into next year?
young/arenas/livingston
thornton/blatche/singleton
mcgee
then draft/sign to fill in around them?
"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith
by little stevie colter on Apr 12, 2010 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
We Would Be Much Better Than We Were
But there will be a significant difference if we were to get Wall or Turner, IMO, then anybody else. But you are right to be optimistic regardless.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
yeah i guess what i meant is
have we seen enough from blatche, mcgee, young and livingston to feel ok relying on them + pick + arenas next year then really change it up year after instead of this year?
"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith
by little stevie colter on Apr 12, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm Even More Optimistic Than That
I would agree with what you said, and add that if we get Wall or Turner, we could be playoff caliber next season. But I’m in the minority on this.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
I agree... my preference would be for Turner though.
We need a killer 3.
Turner is a 2
that’s what he played at Ohio State (although he did play some at SF to start the games, he would rotate to SG about 5 minutes after the start)… he projects as the prototypical NBA Shooting Guard…. and the ONLY reason Wiki says PG is because he can pass the ball (6 assists per game his Junior year). He’s quick, but not nearly quick enough to stay in front of Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc………
Any team that tries to make him into a 1 or a 3 will be wasting his talent.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
If I'm EG
I tell Saunders to limit Blatche’s PT the final two games and give Oberto and Boykins huge minutes, esp. at pivotal moments. Tanking is sensible, you maneuver the rules as best you can. If the NBA changes the rules, so be it but until they do tanking is best. The only meaningful games against non-lotto teams you can play your heart out and still lose. The only games where extensive tanking is necessary are ones against fellow lotto teams, and since those teams are more than likely tanking themselves, a victory is meaningless anyhow.
by morethesamewiz on Apr 12, 2010 4:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm assuming the Wiz
Will get the worst possible lottery pick, no matter what happens in the last two games. After all, it’s tradition around here.
I'm resigned to the fact that we will win one or both of them.
Ernie and Flip already screwed the pooch by allowing the team to win losable games. Cole Aldrich here we come.
If we do end up with the 7-10th pick
I really like Jan Vesely.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Apr 12, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
How about that Donatas guy?
He might be twice as good as Pech in five or six years! We could stash him overseas and save money. I’m kidding here, maybe he will be good. If we end up with the 5 or 6 pick, I would rather just flip it to Miami or the Grizzlies for two later first rounders.
by Tbonebullets on Apr 12, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
3 new young guys, a new owner, and lots of 2011 cap space (Durant?)
Thanks Mike for the analysis because this all is important. Nonetheless, I am sick of rooting for losses and it never works or seems to matter as the Wiz get screwed. I am going Wednesday and rooting for Blatche, Young and McGee to finish strong against a team that ended the season playing well. Whether it is the 6th pick or 1st, we have one high first round pick, the last first round and a low second round pick with an owner who likes to build a team. We will have 3 new young, hungry players and tons of cap room in 2011. Next year should be a really fun year and 2011 even better, and it is all going to be with an owner who is patient. There is cause for optimism.
Go young Wizards – finish strong.
Wizards championship; NU Cats tourney team - 2013
flip the tank
Tank, tank, tank, getting 3rd pick to 10th pick is huge difference. These games are meaningless and no one will remember them by summer league time.
"You taught me a lesson, I was going to give someone the benefit of doubt, and I almost did, then something said, no don't, don't, its not for you, its not my thing" Larry David,
by Mac G on Apr 12, 2010 7:22 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Looking at that list, I'm reminded that things could always be worse
We could all be Timberwolves fans. Man, they could get any number of top draft picks and still have nothing to look forward to. Except Ricky Rubio, the missing link!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Video: Meet the infamous bearded guy that goes nuts by the 76ers’ bench
- Video: Russell Westbrook makes the TNT crew go nuts
- Video: Boston works in a half-court football snap after winning the tip
- Judging the choices for the Eastern Conference All-Star team reserves
- Judging the choices for the Western Conference All-Star team reserves
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
