The Wiz have the worst roster
by Mike Uhrich on Mar 3, 2010 8:52 AM EST
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Printaccording to Chad Ford and John Hollinger. They did an article for ESPN Insider ranking the teams based on what they predict will happen for the next three seasons. Washington ranked 29. But in the comments section they say that the Wiz have the worst roster and described EG as "bumbling" and that "he must be wondering what he has to do to get himself fired." Also they noted the ownership transition to Leonsis(most likely scenario) as a question mark.
The thing that stood out the most though was their player rankings. The scale is 0-400 based on current players, their potential for the future and expected departures. The Wiz ranked dead last with a score of 30....out of 400! The team ranked 29(Bobcats, also the team ranked 30 overall) scored 74 points and the Pacers(#28 in the player rankings) scored 104. So they are saying that not only are the Wiz last, but they are last by quite a margin.
The other criteria used in the rankings were management(28), money..cap situation(7), market(17), draft picks and position(6)....the Wizards ranking are in the parenthesis.
I have to admit I prefer Marc Stein over Chad Ford and I think John Hollinger gets too wrapped up in his numbers at times, so while I wasn't expecting much from them this still sort of shocked me. Of course the Wiz will struggle while rebuilding, but I don't think to the degree that they propose.
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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I didn't because
Insider is paid access and figured that most wouldn’t be able to use it and the ones that could would be able to find it.
But here it is:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-6-100302
Ok, thanks
Yeah, even if it’s an Insider link, you should link it. Otherwise, thanks for posting this FanPost. I was going to FanShot this but I forgot to.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
wow
I believe this team will have a great turn around year next year. our record is better this year then last years and there still 20+ games to go. We WILL get back arenas. Hopefully we can get turner from ohio state. 2 key pick ups in free agency. ( rather this option then turner)
FA option
1. Kyle Korver – spot up shooter when arenas drives or blatche gets double teamed
2. Steve Blake – change of pace guard for arenas
3. Rudy Gay – creates his own shot on and off the ball…GREAT 3rd option
4. Roger Mason – shots off the bench
Draft pick in order
1. evan turner – young caron in carons all star days
2. jamarcus cousens – man child in the paint
3. grievus vasquez – tall pg that does everything well
Projected team 10/11
1. arenas/ blake/ livingston
2. turner/ mason/ korver
3. gay/ miller
4. blatche/ singleton
5. mcgee/ ????
odd man out is nick young….pick up another center to fill the void and this team is very serviceable. i actually like this team.
by back_to_the_future on Mar 3, 2010 9:21 AM EST reply actions
I Would Go With Cousins or Favors Over Turner
We don’t need any more small forwards. I like what we have at the position already, with Thornton, Singleton (I think we will resign him), and possibly even Miller if we choose to resign him. I would rather stack our front court with more size and length.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Sorry, I Just Realized Turner is More of a Guard Than a Forward
I suppose we could use a dynamic shooting guard, since Nick Young hasn’t stepped up yet.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
the problem is...
Right now, we have the 8th worst record in the NBA. Turner is going to likely be gone by top 2 or 3, Cousins is gone by top 4-5 (unless he slides b/c of character issues at which point I would be SHOCKED if the wiz rolled the dice on him), and Vasquez isn’t a top ten pick (however, I would love him with Clevelands pick).
As far as Free Agents go, I am concerned about Gay. There is no doubt he is an excellent player but he is not a MAX free agent. There is no doubt in my mind that a team led by both Gay and Arenas is a first round or second round exit in the playoffs. If he overpay him this summer, we are accepting mediocrity for the next 4-5 years.
I agree on Gay
Especially, since I think that there will be a team that misses out on one of the top 3 (Wade, Bosh, LeBron) that will over pay for Gay.
I think a lot of teams may overpay for mid-level Stars like Gay (Joe Johnson, Boozer, David Lee, etc…)…So the Wizards should stay out of the fray until the end, after all the teams with big money spend theirs – and there there may be some nice players still left available at reasonable prices – like: Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, Roger Mason, Josh Howard, Josh Childress (Atlanta won’t match), Kyle Lowry®, Jordan Farmar®, etc….
The Wizards will have about $34 Million tied up in 9 players (Arenas, Blatche, Thornton, Young, McGee, Ross and 3 draft picks)…. Assuming the Salary Cap is set at $54 Million, that leaves $20 Million to fill out the roster (4 players, minimum)….
I think they could re-sign Mike Miller for a reasonable contract… and still go after a Kyle Lowry or Farmar to shore up the back-up PG position…. and perhaps even Josh Childress to shore or Haslem…
A second way of doing things would be to save the cap space for 2011…. In other words, fill in the roster with rookie contracts and 1-year veteran minimum contracts… and go after Durant or Carmello Anthony in 2011.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Out of Curiosity
Why are Kyle Lowry’s and Jordan Farmer’s names displayed as registered trademarks?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Restricted Free Agents, probably.
I think it’s a ‘R’ in parentheses.
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.
A second way of doing things would be to save the cap space for 2011
wouldnt be surprised at all if this is their plan… also would be surprised at all if they end up surprising everyone and pick up Josh Howards option for next year. Think of it as a placeholder for 2011. Gives them a starting quality player at SF and saves them the trouble of having to find quality players that are willing to come in and sign a 1 year deal.
VOID!!!
by dt3 on Mar 3, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
The Hawks still own his rights though
He’d be a restricted free agent if he decides to come back here.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Olympiacos isn't an NBA team
So, yes, they couldn’t. Restricted free agency only applies to an NBA team. You keep that unless you renounce his rights to get rid of his cap hold, but the Hawks probably won’t do that since they’ll be over the cap next summer regardless.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Childress is looking to come back to the NBA
Cannot find the ESPN article now…. but the same article says that it would be doubtful that Atlanta would match an MLE offer.
Not sure Childress is worth an MLE offer…. but he was considered a potential All-Star talent before he went overseas. He’s big for a Shooting Guard (6’8") and he’s an excellent perimeter defender, athletic enough to guard multiple positions, a very good Free Throw shooter (80%), had very good shooting percentages (career 52% shooter) even though he had a funky release (when he was in the NBA)…
Seems like a perfect fit for this new look ( tall, long, lanky, athletic ) Wizards team -
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Vasquez isn't a first round pick
I’d be okay with him as our 2nd rounder…
not max
he is the best 2nd tier free agent
by back_to_the_future on Mar 3, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Not shocking at all
they traded away two of their top three proven veterans for cash savings, a player declining (Howard) and future prospects. How are they not the worst given this criteria? thats exactly where they should be.
I’m sure these guys completely threw Gilbert under the bus regardless of his 23ppg and other production prior to being suspended. They aren’t going to give Blatche respect just for being the best producer on this team. Plus you have to realize that the paradigm which they are grading is all about STARS. Stars win titles, not teams. So while we are encouraged by the team we see on a nightly basis the lack of stars will always hamper subjective rankings like these.
I really can’t argue with comments toward Ernie either, except to say that Abe was 100% behind Jamison’s extension, which led to Gilbert’s. There was no way Abe was starting over. His stubborn insistence that his team NEVER undertake a rebuilding transition led to many lottery teams.
corrections
1. they did not trade for josh howards talent, but for his expiring contract
2. Blatche is becoming what rasheed ws going to be for us, and what chris webber was for sac..if we let hiim go, he will be someone elses all star
3. we have a STAR in arenas, and a proven one
4. Ernie did right before the season started with the roster…it didnt pan out at all….but still great basketball moves…before the season and before the tradeline
by back_to_the_future on Mar 3, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
disgree
1. Fair enough, that actually works for their argument that the roster is lacking talent since it is a projection on the future and he won’t be around.
2. I hope he continues but they are not going to rate im like Rasheed or CWEBB based on a great 2 weeks.
3. I mentioned that they probably downgraded the guy because he wasn’t playing, no recent evidence, and the fact that he’s got time coming to him.
4. B4 the season? I had a big problem with the trade for the 5th pick before the season blew up in our faces. Ernie created the problems then acted as if those painted him into a corner of having to blow it up. Can’t have it both ways.
As to the article itself
I hate the Future Power Rankings so much. Way too much uncertainty. So I don’t pay much attention to them.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I understand your sentiments
So many things can change from year to year, or even during a particular season (trades, injuries, etc…) that it’s extremely difficult to predict where a team will stack up next year, or the year after….
HOWEVER, I do think it’s a good thing to look at a, and try to quantify a team’s overall prospects for the future…. (ie: players, cap space, ownership, draft, etc….)
On the other hand, a 30 for our future roster (out of 400), is ludicrous. Arenas proved his knee was sound, and that he was still a 20 ppg, 6-7 apg player… Blatche is a solid PF. The Wizards will have a high-lottery pick, and money to spend this Summer.
I’d rather have the Wizards roster situation than Boston’s… With years left on an aging Kevin Garnett, and an even OLDER Rasheed Wallace; and Paul Pierce scheduled to make over $21 Million next year….they won’t be able to add significant Free Agents until 2012…. With Rajon Rondo, Pierce, Wallace and Garnett taking up $55.6 Million of next year’s projected $54 Million cap – Boston is in trouble.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Three Weeks Ago
I would have told you that I would prefer any other team’s situation than the Wizards’. But I think Ernie made some shrewd trades, and I think our youngsters (aside from Nick Young) have really stepped up their games. Singleton has been great, Thornton is playing out of his mind, Blatche is putting up All-NBA numbers, and McGee appears to be getting better and better. Add to this situation the return of Arenas, a likely lottery pick, a good coach, and tons of cap space to sign free agents, and I’m actually very optimistic about this team’s potential for even next season.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Well, yeah
But to assign a numerical value to each category and then rank them and expect us to take them as gospel – I mean, that’s tough. I really don’t think it’s something you can do systematically, especially because 2010 could be so, so active.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I dunno...
This is a yearly thing for them…. they can’t just postpone doing it this year, just because the Free Agent market is so fluid….
I’m not sure anyone here (and especially me) are taking anything they’re saying as gospel…. however, it does bring up some good talking points (Boston’s age, Washington’s roster, Orlando’s cap situation, the threat to Miami, etc…) – Similar to doing maybe a power rankings article?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
At least power rankings are based mostly in the immediate and the past
The Future Power Rankings stuff is all based on the future, which is really tough to quantify.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I agree
but these things can still be an interesting read to see where these people think the team stands.
Yeah, I'm glad you posted the link
It’s a good discussion. I just don’t really like their methodology.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
For those of you that have not read it yet, here’s a link to the article.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I'm Not an ESPN Insider
I’ll have to take your words for what it says.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
this is somewhere in the area of a 30 win team as constructed without arenas. and i hope they trade arenas for some prospects and draft picks. if they find players with energy, will put in the effort to improve, and can defend, flip can install an offense that will allow average scorers to aggregate enough scoring.
by les boulez bomber on Mar 3, 2010 10:16 AM EST reply actions
so... according to hollinger and ford
the pistons are in better shape than we are? and the nets? and the twolves?
explain to me how that is possible.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Mar 3, 2010 10:53 AM EST reply actions
I get the Nets and Twolves
But I was shocked by Detroit’s high ranking.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Yeah - Nets have a decent young core
in Harris (27) , Douglas-Roberts (23), Yi (23), Courtney Lee (24) and Brook Lopez (21) – They also have a new billionaire Russian owner, and will have a new Brooklyn arenas in a couple years. That, along with a TON of cap space makes the Nets a team to watch in the future…. (they remind me of OKC two years ago).
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
i don't see it
cdr? please. yi? please. lopez? maybe, but he’s not dominant. harris? he’s okay. lee? unclear at best. williams? unclear.
we have cap space too.
the nets have won 6 games, folks.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Mar 3, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Yi sucks
CDR’s meh. Lee’s gotten better. Williams sucks. Harris is a wild card.
But Lopez is really, really good and he’s a true center, which is really rare. I’m guessing that, if we did a fantasy draft with everyone on the Wizards and Nets, Lopez would go first over Blatche (as he should IMO). They also will likely have a higher pick than us, and as Rook said, they have an owner willing to spend.
18th’s too high, but they’re in a better place than us. However, a lot of it depends on this summer. That’s why I hate these things.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I say that about Lopez as someone who has never been a big fan of his
He’s gotten better. Much better.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
if we're betting who wins more games next year
i’ll take the wiz. over lots of teams.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Mar 3, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Right, but I don't think that's what this list is measuring
Which is why it stinks – it’s trying to approach an abstract idea systematically.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
well, let's just place bets on who wins more games next year
you’re going to take both the nets and twolves over the wiz? if not, how can you say those teams are in a better place?
it’s not like the wiz have a bunch of old dudes destined to decline. and in terms of picking up future assets, wiz have as good a chance as any of those teams. lopez looks pretty good, but he’s no franchise player. if he was, the nets would surely have more than 6 wins.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Mar 3, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
The future spans longer than one year though
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
that's irrelevant to my point
c’mon, mike. by hollinger’s logic, every team in the NBA, other than maybe the cavs and OKC, should start planning to tank immediately, even to the point where they have arguably the WORST ROSTER IN NBA HISTORY – like the nets do – such that hollinger can then say they have a pretty good roster. it’s patently absurd. and no, it’s not more subtle than that.
there is nothing damning any of the nets, wolves, or wizards to eternal suckitude right now (no, not even gil arenas), so current roster construction has to count, A LOT. the wiz’s TWO best players are out for the season right now and we still beat the nets and wolves with guys who have played together for all of a week. going forward, we have just as much flexibility as they do, if not more, and there’s a decent shot anybody we’ll draft will be as good as anyone they’ll draft.
to say they know anything about what will happen beyond next season with those teams is nonsense.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Mar 3, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Well, but it is relevant
(And I agree that these rankings are silly, but …)
You essentially asked: who of the three would be better next year. I answered that the future spans longer than this year, which it does. Going by their criteria:
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider’s projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
We are talking about several years. In which case, next year counts, but it’s not the only thing that matters.
Current players play a lot into the projection (I believe 40 percent), but it’s not just current production. If it was, then had it been done last year, they should have docked Oklahoma City for winning just 23 games when it was clear they had a nice core of young players. Even next year’s success shouldn’t matter much because it’s much better to be young and sucky (though not NJ sucky) than older and slightly less sucky. You get put in higher position for a draft pick and your young talent gets experience.
I happen to also think the Nets’ young talent is overrated; other than Lopez, nobody impresses me. But there are also other factors at play that favor the Nets. They have more cap room. They have an owner coming in that’s known for being a big spender (though you could argue Ted’s a plus for us). They’re about to move to a much bigger market. They have a better chance of getting a great player in this year’s draft. All those things come into play using their criteria. Honestly, I’d disagree that they have a better chance of getting future assets than us (depending on when that future is).
I agree with you that the whole thing is silly and subjective. I agree that nobody really knows. But going by their admittedly silly criteria, you kind of have to consider more than just next year if we’re going to speak their language.
If not, hell, we agree that these are dumb.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
of course i'm looking past next year
but you can draw a conclusion in terms of the nets and wizards (and wolves) by simply looking at next year. the reason? those franchises have nowhere to go but up.
neither franchise is trending downward. so, if we’re plotting a curve, what factors make the nets curve more likely to grow exponentially from here while the wiz grow linearly? answer: there aren’t any, really.
better players now: advantage wiz
big spending owner: no advantage
major market: no advantage
draft pick: no clear advantage (that’s a crap shoot)
cap room/contract flexibility: both teams have a ton of cap room and flexibility
conclusion: advantage wiz.
the only real argument you can make is that they are throwing the wiz under the bus for the foreseeable future because of gil’s contract. that’s quite an assumption to make. you could just as easily say the nets would be lucky to get a guy with gil’s talent under contract anytime soon.
again. i’ll take the wiz over the nets and wolves, who all have nowhere to go but up. over the warriors too for that matter.
i’ll also take the wiz over the pacers and pistons who stink and have significantly less flexibility.
i might even take them over the raptors, bobcats, bucks, sixers, knicks, and clippers – who i think might have to get a lot worse to truly get better.
i think the kings are in a comparable situation to the wiz. they just dumped their caron butler (kevin martin) for future flexibility, and they’ve got some young talent, cap room, and a ball hogging combo guard. i like our situations, relatively at least.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Mar 3, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Well, depending on what Lebron does...
I think we’ll be ahead of either Cleveland or the Knicks. Whichever one loses out on Lebron will have a tough time.
These rankings are absurd
These are 3 year rankings, but the only players the Wizards have under contract for even 2 years out are Arenas, Blatche and McGee (and an option on Thornton). How can you criticize a roster when you don’t know >75% of it? And as far as building blocks, the ceiling/potential of Arenas/Blatche/McGee is extremely high and I’m quite happy with them as building blocks.
Complete rubbish.
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