What's at stake for the Wiz down the stretch? (Besides ping pong balls)
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Mar 19, 2010 12:39 PM EDT
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PrintA quote from A.J. Price, the Indiana Pacers rookie PG, got my attention. 'Anytime I get in there, I try to produce and show what I'm capable of doing, whether it be the end of the season or whenever,' Price said. 'Even though we don't have much to play for, we still have a lot at stake for us.' The Wiz are coming off a physically and emotionally draining couple weeks that have yet to let up. Players are trying not to be frustrated with themselves, but it's getting more and more difficult as the L's pile up. So, let's take a brief look at a few high profile instances:
- AB is establishing his bonafides as the go-to scorer, and learning how to deal with the double team without turning it over. It's been beaten to death, but his committment to improvement (the workouts with Gene Banks especially got my attention) has been inspired. At the same time, I was worried he may be trying to carry the team on his shoulders before he's ready. His perspective has been rapidly maturing. What may be at stake: Blatche's confidence in his ability to help this team win. As Brendan Haywood said, "...in Washington, we hoped we could win. [In Dallas], they expect to." These are the expectations perennial playoff teams possess, granted, but the last thing a developing talent like AB needs to feel is futile.
- What's at stake: JM's playing time two seasons from now. Yes, a lot can happen between now and then. Yes, JM has finally started hitting the gym and if he keeps it up through the offseason, we're going to see a different Kill + Mode = Cheese next year. We've seen good signs; double-doubles, Derrick Rose hesitant to drive with McGee manning the paint. But with Fabricio Oberto likely gone next year and the Wiz having cap space for the first time in recent memory points to a significant big man acquisition in 2010/11 FA. The impact of that acquisition will likely reflect Saunders' and Grunfeld's (if he is still with us) assessment of JM's progress.
- Does NY become the next Javaris Crittenton? No, I don't think he's going to pull a gun on Shaun Livingston, but becoming low salary bench ballast may be on the horizon. Being the poor man's version of an inconsistent Eddie House isn't endearing him to Flip Saunders. NY will see more playing time next season, guaranteed, but the impression of a tempermental bench scorer isn't an easy one to shake. What's at stake: NY's career.
- The majority of mock drafts thus far are relatively pointless, but they all seem to agree that the Wiz will look hard at Syracus SF Wesley Johnson and Wake Forest SF Al-farouq Aminu should they find themselves in the middle of the lottery. The Wiz have had difficulties getting to the line, and AT must consistently attack the rim to establish some breathing room for our lottery pick coming off the bench. What's at stake: AT's playing time.
- Continued from previous: this situation is drastically compounded by two factors. One (1), if the Wiz resign Josh Howard, available minutes will shrink, and Thornton's minutes likely shrink with it. Two (2), Alonzo Gee. Hard to find a Wiz fan who isn't high on him. Yes, his production has come in garbage time but we don't often see double-doubles from any Wizard not named Andray Blatche regardless of minutes. I'm excited and you should be, too. The logjam this creates at the 3 is obvious. Two possible situations occur to me. One (1), Josh Howard is not resigned. We need a positive, veteran voice in the locker room. And no coach ever complained about having too many quality players. But four at a single position is pushing it, and three quality young SF who all need playing time to continue development makes Howard a luxury. Two (2), the Wiz sign Howard and don't select a SF in the lottery. Who that makes our pick, assuming we fall in the middle of the lottery as predicted, I don't know. Demarcus Cousins, or Cole Aldrich, maybe. Plug for Vasquez in the second round... This comes down to when we want to compete, we're still years away, and I'm all for stockpiling cheap players with upside. What's at stake: young talent, the future foundation of this team. Kevin Durant will not show up to play with Josh Howard...but the team does need a strong, veteran presence on the court. I don't believe Mike Miller is capable of filling that role.
- What's at stake: the future of the PG position/Shaun Livingston's knee. I think we're all agreed Shaun Livingston is coming back next year. Beyond that, Foye is affordable...but a poor fit for Saunders' system while Boykins is a poor fit for any system. Do we pick a PG up in the draft? Livingston can't play 48 minutes, do we get him a backup, or bring him off the bench? PG is extremely thin in FA...no way does Nash leave Phoenix (no sane rebuilding team would sign him) and the best after that is...Rafer Alston? It's not likely Livingston is the PG of the future and that being said...do we use our cap space to trade for Darren Collison? The Hornets are financially choked...more on this in another post.
What's at stake for the Wiz largely concerns the rebuilding process (as it should) and what the playoffs are going to look like in 2012 (we're going, end of story). How deep we go will depend on personnel decisions, and with Grunfeld at the helm, that should be enough to give any Wizards fan pause (no surprises there).
So, this is my first post...hope I haven't made any silly/ignorant/overhashed statements, but I guess I should expect it, being a noob :)
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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Nice thoughts
I rec’d. Welcome to the community!
Hard to find too much to disagree with on the surface. I gotta take a closer look when I get off the mothership clock.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Interesting read
The one thing that I would disagree with is Nick Young being guaranteed more minutes next year. He is going to have to work his butt off this summer to impress Flip enough to get those extra minutes…and with Nick you never know until after the fact.
Another factor could be if Shaun runs the offense well enough for the Wiz to experiment some more with moving Gil to the 2. If Gil could learn to move off the ball better I’d like to see them try this more.
You failed to mention Gil in the PG bullet(I’m not sure how many years you are looking into the future), but until we learn otherwise we should project Gil as the starting PG and have a backup plan(which it seems is what your analysis is about). The only way Shaun would need to play 40+ minutes would be if Gil is out or firmly planted at the 2(a stretch right now) and if either of those come about we would definitely need a high minute PG…and that answer would based on Shaun’s durability/conditioning, which we have yet to determine.
That being said, a nice write-up with some good suppositions and thoughts.
Nice Analysis
I especially like
stockpiling cheap players with upside
I think the overall road to success is for the Wizards to have a plan for rebuilding that assumes we return to being a competitor in 2-3 years. That being said, I think Howard and Miller’s services are not needed and would undermine the development. The big wildcard is going to be Gilbert. If he’s still a Wizard next year and he returns to form, he might be valuable as trade bait to a team that is on the cusp and needs a scorer.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
Welcome, and good post
As for the PG position, I wouldn’t worry too much about Livingston playing too many minutes – if Arenas is back next year, he’ll play the bulk of the PG minutes (34-35 minutes a night) leaving 13-14 minutes for Livingston.
I’d really like to see Livingston play for 20-24 minutes a night, with Arenas sliding over to the off-guard for those few minutes a night when they play together.
As for the draft – Washington cannot afford to pick for position… they must take the best player available… having said that, if they DO end up picking 6th or 7th, they will probably have their choice of Al-Farouq Aminu, Cole Aldrich , Ed Davis, Wesley Johnson, Greg Monroe and Patrick Patterson… (Wall, Favors, Cousins and Turner will probably already be gone by then)…. All those players are pretty close in talent level…so in that case, I like either Wes Johnson (if we can convert him to a SG) or Cole Aldrich (You can never have too many good, young, talented big men)
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Concerning Gilbert Arenas
I wasn’t really sure how I wanted to approach the subject of GA…and my insane statement about NY’s minutes was totally unsupported. Speculation time: One (1), MM will not be back. Two (2), the Wiz will acquire Kyle Korver in the off season.
- We’ve all had our gripes with MM this season about not being the sniper we all feel he could be.
- The question is, does he make us a better team with his occasionally erratic distribution on a young team? Or is he better suited to a veteran team where he can trust his teammates to create for themselves?
- Unfortunately or not, I think it’s the latter. We are better off without MM if we can make a strong acquisition at SG, and I think that’s Korver.
This also plays into the PG situation I didn’t fully address earlier. We have two talented PG with one established (for better or worse) as the FOF, and Korver gives us a sniper even more dangerous than MM. While this is nowhere near the Hornets slightly uncomfortable situation with THEIR two talented PG and SG, a post on At The Hive proposed a solution that caught my eye, and may be better suited to a Korver-equipped DC. We all want to see if GA can adjust to playing at SG while not pushing Livingston’s knee too much.
At The Hive proposed something like a 36-30-24 minute split between Paul-Thornton-Collison. We’re bringing back GA off a career-threatening knee injury and Livingston off a career-threatening knee injury which tells me splitting 60 minutes between GA and SL is not happening. Also, Korver is a spot-starter/sixth man unused to big minutes who can show NY the mentality he needs to beCOME the bench scorer, if not the specific skillset, as Korver doesn’t play around the rim the way NY can. I think having Korver’s guidance in even a mentor’s capacity is just as important as anything else to NY’s game due to his notorious sensitivity. And with GA, SL, and KK not at full strength (recovery or conditioning-wise) that translates into more minutes for NY.
Korver is likely a pipe-dream…but I think he is a manageable one. Carlos Boozer won’t be resigned at his current salary, but he wants to stay. And that means Korver and/or Wesley Matthews is gone. Perhaps MM could fulfill Korver’s projected role, but I know I’d rather have a for-real assassin at the 2.
In either case, I think seeing a Livingston/Arenas backcourt experiment next year is as inevitable as seeing Paul/Collison this year, and barring Evan Turner/John Wall I think NY will get a few more scraps of PT in a last chance to redeem his image under Flip Saunders.
We're from the city with the highest murder rate in the country. Why WOULDN'T they call us the Bullets?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Mar 19, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Good post
Just like last year, it pretty much all hinges on Arenas. The draft is another big fact, obviously. The way we’ve been playing lately, we may be positioning ourselves closer to the top of the draft. While I won’t count on us getting a top 2 pick, I am holding out hope we are in the position to grab Cousins. For as much “upside” as McGee may have, I don’t see him reaching it next year. I would much rather have a big bodied center in there who isn’t as easily pushed around. Of course, if the draft process proves Cousins to be as lazy as some of the rumors say, then all bets are off. But I am not too interested in any of the small forwards. Truthfully, I’d rather take Monroe. I know he’s not projected that high, but his skillset and basketball IQ tell me he’s gonna be a legit big man in this league. Maybe he needs to work on his aggression, or maybe his deference is what the offense calls for. I guess that’s to be determined. Also, i suppose it’s possible that he would be better suited at power forward. Again, TBD.
I think Monroe and Blatche down low could work
Itd be fun to watch a team with 2 big men that are willing passers…Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol ???
I heard that about Cousins as well...
It’s been said we need to take BPA regardless of position in the draft, and barring Wall/Turner, I think Favors is our best bet for a couple reasons:
- Rook mentioned how high everyone is on his coachability, and what better veteran to guide him than Big Game James? And AB can teach him how to drain his jumper. (Wow, that felt weird…)
- With Saunders experimenting with small ball lineups, having Arenas and Blatche lighting it up from deep while Blatche and Favors pound inside for boards and putbacks would give Favors the kind of breathing room he could only dream about in Georgia Tech.
- Speaking of pounding inside, Favors will help us get to the line more consistently. His ability to finish will give us something we’ve been missing, an edge in close games.
- Whether Arenas develops into a Flip Saunders point guard or not, anything is an upgrade at this point. With any NBA-caliber PG things will only improve.
- JM and Cousins are different players…but we don’t need two athletic freaks with suspect conditioning. The biggest red flags are the rumors about his energy level you mentioned. When the Wiz are in the middle of a youth movement built on energy and commitment, I’ll leave you with this:
Weaknesses: The biggest concern with him right now is the lack of explosiveness … He is very effective at the current level because he simply outmuscles opponents, but once he faces bigger defenders, his athleticism (or lack thereof) will be exposed further. His post game is predicated on brute force, but he has not really shown many reliable back-to-the-basket moves … His motor might also be an issue as he gets winded fairly quickly, but it could just be the lack of conditioning … He has stretches where he completely disappears, at times he doesn’t even try to make an effort to run down the floor … He does not add much in rebounding department, as he lacks desire to attack the glass…
From: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/demarcus-cousins
We're from the city with the highest murder rate in the country. Why WOULDN'T they call us the Bullets?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Mar 20, 2010 10:27 AM EDT reply actions
I've seen enough
Go with AB/JM up front, although JM needs a full year next year to develop.
Get a great young point guard. Livingston can back up.
Everybody else on the roster isn’t worth more than $5M/year. Arenas is toast in DC. Maybe Palin will recruit him to Alaska to start a new franchise.
We’’ll need shooters at the 2/3.
Could win 42 next year and 50 the year after.
The Wiz got a couple more balls today
after Indiana’s victory.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Mar 21, 2010 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
What may be at stake: Blatche’s confidence in his ability to help this team win.
People underestimate this.
Losing begets losing. I’m not so sure I believe that getting more ping pong balls is an adequate consolation.
I'm with you
If there is one take away from the history of our team it’s that ping pong balls are not kind to us.
You obviously never want to lose
I’m pretty sure most fans see more ping pong balls as a silver lining and something to hope for to keep their own sanity.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
we can win next year
you all forget that Gil came off-of injury and still avaraged about 22 and 7. And that is soley due to rust of not playing NBA game speed for so long. And he is still farely young. Agent Zero is a consistent deadly scorer and those are few and far between.
my wiz next year
1. Gil
2. (FA- the best 2 we can get) joe johnson, rudy gay RFA,
3. thortan
4. baltche
5. (FA- center) tyson chandler,
6. sean livingston (rotate 1-3 accordibng to line up)
7. nik young, another strong FA, a shrp shooter
8. james singleton
9. mcgee
by back_to_the_future on Mar 22, 2010 2:35 PM EDT reply actions
We don't have enough money for all those guys in free agency
We have enough for one max contract, and we don’t have a mid-level because we’re under the cap. Also, Chandler’s not a free agent.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Arenas scores a lot
because he shoots a lot. His true shooting % is near the bottom of the of all PG’s in the league. His assist ratio is even worse. yes, he’s got a high PER, so that means he’s a stat machine. so what? If he returns to 06-07’ form he’s a better shooter but still a bad passer.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
This year, sure
His true shooting % is near the bottom of the of all PG’s in the league.
But that wasn’t anywhere close to the truth when he was healthy. And for his supposed “bad passing,” he still posted pretty solid assist percentages.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
agree and strongly disagree
GA’s True Shooting % was 10th in the league in 06-07’ among PG’s Not bad.
And for his supposed "bad passing," he still posted pretty solid assist percentages.
His Assist Ratio that same season is HORRIBLE though. 17.4 according to ESPN’s site.
To give reference to that metric, compare Marbury’s who is 50th in the league (among PG’s) in that same stat at 23.7.
GA is a little better this year at 21.8 but he’s still worse than almost all PG’s in the league.
Another interesting stat is USG: Usage Rate – the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes.
GA is 7th among all players in that stat in 06-07’. This year he was 3rd after DWade and LeCrabDribble.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
Unfair Comparison
GA’s True Shooting % was 10th in the league in 06-07’ among PG’s Not bad.
Actually, it was great considering that he was an elite scorer with a usage rate higher than 30%. It’s unfair to compare his TS% to other point guards because most point guards don’t shoot that often, and when they do shoot it is usually because they are wide open because the defenders are focusing on the primary scorers. As an example of a non-primary scorer with a high shooting percentage, consider Mike Miller’s high 3-point percentage for us this season. Does it really matter that he is so very efficient in that area if he rarely shoots from there? I mean it helps, but it doesn’t make a big difference in the grand scheme of things. Gilbert, on the other hand, was the primary scorer for the Wizards and consequently had to face tougher defenses that were constantly focused on him. Consider the 7 NBA players that had usage rates higher than 30% that season:
Player USG% TS%As you can see, Gilbert was behind only Kobe Bryant in efficiency for elite scorers who had a usage rate over 30%. To compare him to the prototypical point guard is both unfair and unrealistic – Gilbert is not your typical point guard.
Tracy McGrady 35.0 51.5
Kobe Bryant 33.6 58.0
Carmelo Anthony 33.4 55.2
Zach Randolph 33.1 53.7
Gilbert Arenas 31.4 56.5
LeBron James 31.0 55.2
Vince Carter 30.8 55.9
But that doesn’t mean that he’s not a point guard. My observations tell me that Gilbert is at his best when he is orchestrating the offense and the ball is in his hands. He is less effective, IMO, when playing off the ball. He may shoot a lot more than the prototypical point guard, but he still needs the ball in his hands to be most effective.
This also doesn’t mean that Gilbert is incapable of setting up his teammates. Gilbert is at his best when he draws defenses to him, and then he can either get to the foul line or set up a wide open teammate. I’m not sure where you got your “assist ratio” stats, and I’m not even sure what that means. What Prada was referring to was assist percentage, and Gilbert was 20th in the league in 2006-07 with an assist percentage of 27.2, which I would consider solid, as Prada did. Two players ahead of Gilbert were Tracy McGrady and LeBron James, so if you just want to compare Gilbert to point guards, he was 18th in the league, or about average.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Assist Ratio
AST: Assist Ratio – the percentage of a player’s possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
as opposed to Assist %
an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.
The first one I think is a stat that is more telling about a player’s effectiveness as a PG.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
But Gil is Not Your Typical Point Guard
That is my point. How many point guards are elite scorers? That doesn’t mean that Gilbert doesn’t help his team win. At the end of the day, that’s all that counts. If you want to complain about Gil’s defense, I’m all ears, but blaming Gil because he doesn’t fit your mold of what a point guard should be is not a very good argument, IMO.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
Also
In Gil’s case, assist % is a better measure than assist ratio, because Gil is/was and elite scorer. That means he has a high usage rate (i.e. shoots the ball a lot more). Because he was very efficient at scoring, as I showed above, I think it is foolish to suggest he should have passed more, when his teammates were less likely to convert than he was (both Antawn and Caron had lower TS% than Gil). So you unfairly penalize Gilbert for making the smart move and shooting rather than passing at the end of more of his possessions. Then you disregard Gil’s solid assist %, which tells us that when Gilbert did pass, he did so effectively.
All you’ve really proved is that Gilbert isn’t your typical point guard, not that he didn’t do more to help his team win.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
"...don't ever think it can't get any worse, because it can. There's no question, it can." -- Flip Saunders unintentionally coining the new Washington Wizards motto
enough?
chandler was suppose to be a free agent with the hornets, what happened?
i see where the confusion is. joe johnson 1st option if not then rudy gay as the 2nd. we should have enough money for another max plus a couple of 2nd and 3rd tier FA
by back_to_the_future on Mar 22, 2010 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
Chandler is with the Bobcats and he has one year left on his contract after this
More accurately, it’s a player option for $12 million, which I’m sure he’ll exercise. Link.
As for the rest, I stand corrected a bit – the Wizards have $28 million in salary without Josh Howard and Randy Foye (who they’d have to renounce) and the cap is expected to be around $51-54 million. That gives them enough for a max guy and another player or two.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Yeah
we have the money, the hard part is going to be trying to convince a top FA to come here…doing well in the draft can only help.
Don't forget the "Cap Holds" for all the Wizard's Free Agents and draft choices....
Unless they renounce Randy Foye, there’s a cap hold of $4.8 Million….
PLUS Draft picks count as 100% of the scale salary for that pick against the Cap.
(It depends on where the Wizards pick in the Draft…. Pick 1 = $4.3 Million , whereas Pick 6 = $2.5 Million)
So I assumed pick 3 and 30, or roughly $4.5 Million.
There is also a roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each roster spot below 12.
Again, assuming they renounce Foye, the Wiz will have 6 players under contract + 2 draft choices. So the League will tack on a Roster charge of $473,604 for each of the 4 unfilled roster spots (total = $1,894,416)
So realistically, the Wizards will really have more like $21-23 Million to spend on Free Agents this Summer -
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Hard to imagine us holding on to Foye...
…after letting Gee go so we could quibble over pennies…don’t think we’ll need to worry about that hold.
We're from the city with the highest murder rate in the country. Why WOULDN'T they call us the Bullets?
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Mar 31, 2010 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions
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