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The Wizards' offense has been pretty bad recently

I know, I know, this is kind of the understatement of the century, but I hadn't realized just how terribly our offense has been since the trades until friend of the site Kevin Broom (TheSecretWeapon) sent me this graph.  Broom's a former contributor to Real GM and a big figure in the NBA advanced stat community, and he sent me this chart he made graphing the Wizards' game-by-game offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.

Wizards_offense_medium

The green line refers to our game-by-game offensive efficiency, and the orange dotted line is team's offensive rating trend line for the season.  As you can see, it's gotten really, really ugly recently.  The light blue line is the league average, and as you can see, we've been really, really far below that recently.

The silver lining is that our defense (red line) was doing well before this recent five-games-in-six-days stretch.  Hopefully that at least gets back to a decent level.  However, what these numbers clearly show is that, for all of Andray Blatche's success, you cannot build a good offense with him being your number one option.  He needs help, and lots of it, which if fine but ultimately a reality we need to face.

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I guess the question I have is

“What kind of help does Blatche need?”

He’s a tall, jump-shooting forward. Should we get someone who can score primarily in the post, freeing Blatche up so he can move around? Should we get a shooter and ask Blatche to stay near the paint? Should we focus on a slasher, that way whether he’s in the paint or on the perimeter, he can receive a kickout pass?

The ideal response would be, “Get all three,” but we don’t have enough money (or basketballs) to make that happen.

(Of course the other question after this is, “If Blatche isn’t the #1, than who is?” But that’s for another time).

by Pryme on Mar 19, 2010 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not so sure

I’d go so far as saying you can’t build a good offense around AB yet. This team has no other offensive weapons, except for an occasional Thornton or McGee sighting. There are very few players in the league right now that could will this team to a victory. It might be better to hold off on that judgement until next year when Arenas and Howard can help generate some offense. As you mentioned he needs help, but he could still prove to be an effective number one option.

As a side note, it’s been about 2 1/2 months since Gil played and he still leads the team in number of assists by 12 over Foye, who has played twice as many games…which is why this team desperately needs to find out if Livingston(he should be) is the answer or we need to pick up another PG in the draft/offseason.

by Mike Uhrich on Mar 19, 2010 1:30 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with that...

But its too early to say he can’t be the offensive centerpiece. Its also too early to say he can….

by jones-y on Mar 19, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thats True

Im not a huge fan of Gil’s style of play, but it obvious we sure as hell need some scoring. Im starting to believe that maybe with 2 good shot-blockers behind him his defensive issues might not be such a big deal. We need another 20ppg and Gil can be that guy. Next year will be really interesting…but in the meantime its fun watching Blatche. But watching the offense and the team lose is begging to feel like last year again. Its becoming unbearable.

by tw10 on Mar 20, 2010 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow.
Gil played and he still leads the team in number of assists by 12 over Foye

That.Is.Ridiculous.

Nice stat.

by tw10 on Mar 20, 2010 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

So this chart

is showing that the Wizards have had an above average defense
and a below average offense for most of the year?

Wow…. I take that as a good sign….
Have we finally turned the corner?
Have the players finally bought into playing defense?

The chart seems to indicate that.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 19, 2010 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

oh.... I guess not

I mis-read the chart….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 19, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

At least Gil & Blatche...

Blatche does a bit more than just shoot jumpers. He has a well rounded game for
a 4. The fact that he shoots well is a great part of his game. As far as him being the sole
centerpiece of the team…whoa…slow down a bit. Don’t sleep on Gilbert. I’ve a feeling
he’s got some scoring punch left. I’m excited about the idea of seeing them play to-
gether. I think Gil is still the centerpiece if you have to call it that. What this team needs
is the advantage, know what I mean?, the advantage at the point, at the two, power forward, etc., Not being a game underdog! That’s why I’m high on them going after
Yao Ming. He’d be an immediate advantage in the post, if he’s healthy. Get players
who give you the advantage, and play a team game! Run the offense through him,
or maybe him…..

by Herb Harris on Mar 21, 2010 2:59 AM EDT reply actions  

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