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2010 NBA Draft Prospect Profile: Derrick Favors

Editor's Note, by rook6980:
This is the fourth installment in what I expect to be a regular posting on Draft Prospects.  This series will take a look at the top draft prospects for the 2010 NBA Draft in June. The plan is to have one or two a week, leading up to a flurry of activity the week of the draft. My DVR is crammed full of College games, and I'm watching and writing as fast as I can (between Wizards games).

Just another note: These draft prospect articles are not necessarily done in any order... but rather their order is based on which College games I've had time to watch and analyze; and which ones my editor (Mike Prada) thinks may be particularly pertinent at the time.


Draft Prospect assessments:
John Wall
Evan Turner
Wesley Johnson
DeMarcus Cousins    Upcoming
Al-Farouq Aminu         Upcoming
Cole Aldrich                 Upcoming
Greg Monroe               Upcoming

Derrick Favors

  • 18 years old
  • 6'10"; 246 lbs.
  • Georgia Tech, Freshman

Runs like a deer, jumps out of the gym. I really hate that trite cliché, but in the case of Derrick Favors, it fits. He has that combination of size, strength, skill and athleticism that makes General Managers drool. I've said this about other players before (John Wall), but Favors has "freakish" athleticism. Now combine the physical tools with a person that is reportedly a hard worker, with good grades, great character, leadership ability, with a high intensity motor, a tremendous work ethic and a fine young man to boot. The tools and the intangibles are all there. Derrick Favors could be special.

Star-divide

Favors was mostly used as a PF or Center in High School, using his size, strength and athleticism to get to the rim. As a result, he was the #1 prospect in the 2009 high school class.  But at Georgia Tech, he has been asked to play the high post. Unfortunately, unlike other big men in the top of this year's draft (cough, Cousins, cough), Derrick Favors does not have the luxury of an elite, pass-first Point Guard to get him easy shots. Georgia Tech's half court Offense is, to be kind, awful. Favors plays the high post, and Gani Lawal (also a projected first round pick) plays the low post. Since none of the GT guards can hit an outside shot, most teams just pack the lane, double team Favors or Lawal, and dare the Yellow Jacket guards to shoot from outside. Needless to say, that has depressed Favors' (and Lawal's) statistics. He is averaging a very pedestrian 12.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg and 2.1 bpg. Hardly numbers that you would expect from a top-5 pick in the draft; but everyone knows that Favors will be a much better pro player than he has shown in College; because he needs to play in the low post where he can dominate, as opposed to standing in the foul circle surrounded by two or three defenders.

Foul trouble early in the year, limited his minutes and his numbers. In his first 7 games, he was averaging a very high 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes. Since then, Favors has learned to play defense without fouling, cutting almost 1.5 fouls per 40 minutes off his foul rate. Offensively, I didn't see enough of Favors in the post, especially early in the year, to come up with a full analysis of his game. However, something changed in the last 8 games or so, as Georgia Tech Coach Paul Hewitt had Favors in the paint more. He responded by increasing his productivity. Over the last 8 games, Derrick Favors has averaged 17.1 points on 65% shooting, 10.8 rebounds and 3.5 blocks. Now THOSE are numbers that are worthy of a top 5 pick.

The Yellow Jackets made a nice run in the ACC Tournament  with Derrick Favors leading the way. Against defending ACC Champ North Carolina, Favors had 18 points, nine rebounds and five blocks. Next, he helped GT win against a very good Maryland club, with 11 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks. He had 17 points, eight rebounds and two blocks as Georgia Tech beat North Carolina State to get to the ACC Final, then followed it up with another terrific game with 22 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks as GT narrowly lost to Duke in the title game.

Offensively, Derrick Favors is a mixed bag. He is is explosive around the rim, and a fabulous finisher. He's super efficient, shooting over 61% from the field for the year. When he's not throwing down ferocious dunks, he shows a nice touch around the basket with both hands. He can spin either way, and put up a baby hook in the lane with either his right or left hand. He's got good, soft hands and catches everything thrown his way; whether it's a spectacular alley-oop pass, or a simple entry pass to the post. I guess, for Wizards fans, it's especially important to mention that fact. He has made some very dramatic improvement in his post footwork; showing off a variety of pivots, spins and drop steps; something he didn't show earlier this year. However, he does NOT handle double teams well, and he's not a very good passer - and therefore he turns the ball over. His ball handling is almost non-existant, unless he's dribbling in a straight line - and as a result, he can't always create his own shot.

As for his jump shot, Favors has a nice looking stroke out to 12 feet or so, but he has not been very good, hitting less than 30% of his jumpers this year. Fortunately, he does not take a lot of jump shots, but at the next level he will need to get better at hitting that shot. I don't see anything in his mechanics or release that looks wrong or broken. His shot looks consistent, with good form and a high release; but it is a bit flat and sometimes he looks rushed. I don't think there's anything there that cannot be fixed with practice and a good shooting coach.

Favors doesn't seem to have a consistent offensive move, unless you count a dunk as an offensive move. In the NBA, he'll need to develop a pet move, something he can rely on to get his shot off. Also, although GT does not run much, Favors should be excellent in transition. He's a terrific finisher, and runs the floor better than most guards. He also looks like he'd be a very good pick-and-roll finisher, assuming he teams up with a talented shot-creating guard.


Easily the best defensive big man in the early draft (especially compared to Cousins), Favors has good defensive fundamentals. In one-on-one situations, he establishes a solid base, gets into a crouch, and refuses to give ground. Very physical, Favors certainly doesn't shy away from contact; and as a result, he can still get into foul trouble from time to time. As already mentioned, Favors can really jump, and that, in conjunction with his tremendous wingspan (9'1" standing reach) and excellent timing makes him a special shot blocker. He doesn't usually bite on fakes - knowing that he's tall enough, and long enough to contest shots without jumping at every twitch. He has very good quickness, something he rarely uses on Offense... but on Defense, his quickness allows him to step out on the pick-and-roll and still get back to his man. He's even very good when switched onto a smaller player; with lateral quickness enough to stay in front of all but the quickest guards. He has a high activity level on Defense, putting as much effort on Defense as Offense.

Even if he's not touching the ball offensively, he can still impact every phase of the game. Favors is an excellent rebounder, utilizing not only his superior athleticism, but also displaying good fundamentals, timing and court awareness. Much like Blake Griffin last year, when a shot goes up Favors finds his man, puts a body on him and boxes out. He has a very good sense of how the ball will come off the rim and uses his superior leaping ability to go up (usually with two hands) to snatch the rebound. He rebounds in crowds. Because of his quickness, he also snags rebounds outside his area. If Gani Lawal (6'9") weren't there (grabbing 8.7 rebounds per game), Derrick Favors would be right up there with the leading rebounders in College - he's that good.

Given his superior physical tools, and his coachability and work ethic, I see no reason why Favors won't be an impact player right away on the defensive end. Favors has not only the tools, but the mentality to become an elite defender in the NBA.






STRENGTHS
NBA body: Long, tall, huge wingspan, Excellent hands
Good size, strength and frame (can still add muscle)
Strong Intangibles: Work ethic, attitude, unselfish, Coachable
Freak athleticism
Plays hard, all the time
Quickness
Strong finisher at the rim
Good footwork
Efficient scorer inside
Can finish through heavy contact
Can use both hands
Excellent rebounder
Excellent defensive fundamentals
Contests shots
Terrific shot blocker
Potentially All-First team Defense in the NBA
Tremendous upside
Low bust potential


WEAKNESSES
Needs a "go to" move
Needs to improve ball handling
Turnover prone
Jump shot needs work
Cannot create his own shot
GT system makes him hard to evaluate fairly



Envision Amare Stoudemire; but an Amare that can and will play excellent defense. Derrick Favors is still raw, especially offensively; and a long ways from being compared to Stoudemire; but with improvements to certain facets of his game - he could get there. In fact, I think he would be a better pick than Aminu or Cousins. Why? Because of his intangibles.. his work ethic.. his attitude... the fact that every Coach he's ever played for calls him a "great kid" and very coachable.

And, he’s still only 18 years old.

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Yes, we would like one of those please

Another good post, Rook. I was unaware that he was playing out of position at GT, and it was good to read about the intangibles he offers.

What I also like about him for the Wizards is that his strengths are what the Wizards are missing (and have been missing for years), and his weaknesses are skills already provided by Blatche. A trio of McGee, Blatche and Favors will have all the bases covered at PF and C.

by disgrunted on Mar 18, 2010 7:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Very good

Defensive front court. Very good. Still prefer Turner. But one way to build an amazing defense is up front. It sounds like Favors could do this in combination with Blatche.

by zeke5123 on Mar 18, 2010 8:59 AM EDT reply actions  

to add

Announcers during the ACC tournament mentioned that both Lawal and Favors play better when Zack Peacock is on the floor with them (as opposed to when Lawal and Favors play together). Peacock can spread the floor more and gives each more room to work with.

I watched Favors early in the ACC season and he was pedestrian. He didn’t even look like a top pick physically. Having seen 5 games down the stretch I was much more impressed with his entire game. When they were able to get him the ball he was very efficeint with it. One key for me is that he also rebounds with his feet and not just his athleticism.

Cousins is a load and a “true” C but Favors has to be in the conversation with the 3rd pick.

by Jheiser3 on Mar 18, 2010 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I'll agree with this

He definitely looked much better late than early. Very, very curious to see how he performs against OK State. Actually, that’s one hell of a game for NBA prospects. I’ve been meaning to watch some James Anderson.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 18, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Announcers during the ACC tournament mentioned that both Lawal and Favors play better when Zack Peacock is on the floor with them

Problem is that both Lawal and Favors are best in the low post… but you can’t have two guys down there – they crowd each other. And there’s another reason that Favors’ numbers were “pedestrian” – he was not getting 33-35 minutes a game early in the season – as the Head Coach didn’t know how to use both Lawal and Favors at the same time – so neither guy got enough minutes….

But now, over the last 8 games, Favors is averaging almost 33 minutes a game; and putting up excellent numbers.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

his play

I wasn’t talking about stats. I would watch GT and he would go long stretches without making plays. There was one stretch i wasn’t sure he was even on the floor. I couldn’t tell by spotting him, he didn’t stand out physically, or through his play.

Contrast that to the ACC tourney when he was everywhere and unmistakable.

by Jheiser3 on Mar 18, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would watch GT and he would go long stretches without making plays.

I believe that the reason he was not playing well (disappearing in games, not dominating, putting up mediocre stats, “going long stretches without making plays” , etc…) is because of how he was being used ….. He was asked to stand at the top of the key, and pass to cutters, or create a shot….(while Lawal played the low post) – - – - – And that is NOT Favors’ strength as a player… he definitely cannot create his own shot, much less create for others…

Rather, he is a true low post presence. Once Paul Hewitt started using him in the post, Favors started responding with big games, putting up big numbers, and making big plays.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually sounds like he could pair with Blatche very well.

It sounds like he does, but do you think he has the size and strength to play center in the NBA?

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Mar 18, 2010 9:35 AM EDT reply actions  

do you think he has the size and strength to play center in the NBA?

Only in certain “smallball” lineups…. or against certain match-ups…. but not against the bigger “true” centers in the League. (but how many “true” centers are there anymore?)

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

to be more specific - and after truly evaluating your question

He’s 6’10" and 248 lbs… so he’s no twig… He’s strong enough… and he plays a physical defensive style…

All that, coupled with the fact that he’s defensively sound, holds his ground in the post, and can block shots – He’s quick enough to defend the pick-and-roll. He’s mobile and athletic enough to stay with ANY perimeter Center out there (Dirk, Bargnani, etc..) He’s best finishing around the rim and less effective away from the basket. He can finish through heavy contact. I also don’t think he’s done growing into his body – and he should be able to put on another 15-20 pounds of muscle…

so, after re-evaluation, YES – I think Favors could play Center in the NBA

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

If he's paired with Blatche

Andray has the size to match up with most of the true centers. And maybe Dray will actually get serious, find the weight room this summer, and develop the strength to hold his ground against anyone. We’d have a low-post PF in Favors and an outside shooting C in Blatche. Kind of like Boozer and Okur in Utah.

by yop32 on Mar 18, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

boozer and okur????

Boozer is a 6-8 PF who loves the midrange game. Okur is a 6-10 3PT shooting center. Favors doesnt have much of a low post game and Blatche has a midrange/low post game and doesnt/shouldnt shoot threes. I dont see the comparison.

by tw10 on Mar 20, 2010 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

The only thing Favors has is a low post game

He doesn’t have much of a mid-range

but Blatche does….

and I think that’s what yop32 was saying… inside / outside (Favors / Blatche) similar to Boozer / Okur as a PF / Center combo that plays inside / outside…..

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 20, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

At 18

He could potentially still grow another inch too.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Mar 18, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

i wonder

what he will measure and weigh before the draft. I have this feeling he is going to be 6’9 plus with a crazy wingspan and closer to 230. Or i need a new TV.

by Jheiser3 on Mar 18, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah - he's probably 6'9" with a 7-foot PLUS wingspan.....

but I would guess he’s probably around 240 (look at Blatche for instance, he weighs 248)

Favors is built solid…. and has a solid foundation (legs)… Obviously, he could add another 15 pounds… and still be just as athletic. But he’s more than 230

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looks like there are some real choices in this draft...

and the Wizzies keep adding ping pong balls to their pile… They could go into the lottery with the second or third worst record at the current pace…

Of course that assumes we don’t have a run of luck like last year, drop to 5th or 6th in the lottery and then compound that by trading the pick for two zeroes (although that move did make some sense at the time).

So let’s hypothesize a bit:

We still have Arenas and that is not all that bad, as Gilbert is still going to put up 22-7-5 and the likelihood that we get a shot at John Wall is fairly low. Livingston is clearly playing himself into a reasonable contract as the primary back-up at point, and Howard is still a possibility at the wing if his knee heals acceptably and he can be signed up at a good price. I would also be interested in seeing Gilbert and Livingston on the floor at the same time. Plus we can still go for point guard insurance with the Cleveland pick or our own high second rounder.

The top priority. IMO, is for a killer 3 (Turner or Johnson) with Thornton, Gee and Ross for depth at about $4 million a year COMBINED.

The second priority is for a strong, defense-minded big man (Favors or Cousins) to team with Blatche and McGee, backed up by Singleton. Monore may be an option here, the guy knows how to pass from inside and when you put his court vision out there with Livingston, there will be open men (no more Foye shooting heavily contested runners, whee!).

Outbound: Earl, Fab, Miller and Foye… and it’s safe to say that none of them will ever come back to haunt us.

All this still leaves cap space to either make an offer to a free agent, or integrate the players named above and sit on the cash surplus to see what happens next season.

Does that mean we can dream of playoffs in 2010-11… Eh, meh… The key to the palace is in Flip’s pocket. If he is the coach he is supposed to be, yeah, it could happen. But at least we will have a team of players with something to prove and every incentive to work well together.

by khrabb on Mar 18, 2010 11:16 AM EDT reply actions  

The second priority is for a strong, defense-minded big man (Favors or Cousins)

I’m not too enamored with Cousins “defense”… Sure, he blocks a lot of shots, and he’s big (270 pounds), but from the games I’ve seen, he looks like he just doesn’t try very hard on the defensive end. He doesn’t get into a good defensive posture …. tends to allow his opponent to back him down, while he’s looking for the opportunity to block the shot…. He’s terrible on the pick-and-roll defense because he’s slow…. AND he doesn’t run hard to get back on defense on fast breaks. He just CANNOT guard anyone quicker than him (and there will be a LOT of those kind of players in the NBA).

I just generally get the feeling that Cousins just doesn’t care about defense.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

The attitude issues that Cousins reputedly has

Certainly backs up the thought that Cousins might not want to commit to improving on defense because it’s not as glamorous. IMHO, the bust potential of Cousins outweighs his upside, since with the Wizards we’re talking about a rebuilding team with a shaky history of success (most of our winning players are gone) and a lack of veteran leadership (assuming Earl, Miller, and Fab are not re-signed).

And, as mentioned above, Favors has some skills that the Wizards desperately need. I’ll take solid, potentially elite defense with a raw offensive game on this team in a heartbeat. What we don’t need is another big man with questionable defense- McGee’s got that covered and some. Sounds like Favors would be a good option after the requisite John Wall and Evan Turner mentions.

"Guess you guys aren't ready for that yet... but trust me, you're gonna love it." ~Marty McFly

by mr. 91 on Mar 18, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still think Cousins can be a beast

Dude is huge and is a good basketball player, not just a bruiser.

by tw10 on Mar 20, 2010 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Favors is better than Cousins

He’s Amare that plays in the post. Disgusting hops. Muscular real man body. Loves to post up and great on defense. Great on the boards and shot blocking. Really evolved during the course of the season. He destroyed my terps everytime we played.

Stevie Wonder can shoot better from the free throw line though.

Cousins on the other looks like that fat guy who played for Kentucky, then Boston. He has the body of a NBA poward forward/center yes….but a 10 yr vet who gave up on weights his 5th year in the league. Plus he’s a hot head baby. He’s just a softy. He will eat his way out of the league.

by jdgreger on Mar 18, 2010 12:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed

As stated elsewhere, I prefer Favors over Cousins, because I think our porous defense needs to be addressed before our offense. With Gilbert, Thornton, and Blatche, I think we’ll have enough offensive weapons to score when necessary. But without an anchor on defense, all of our scoring will be for naught.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Mar 18, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Gilbert plays, he needs to commit to defense

Cause we had a great anchor center in Haywood and we still couldn’t grab boards and play defense. Jamison couldn’t guard his own shadow and gilbert never rotated.

Defense is not only needed from the center. It’s a team concept that the wiz never had.

by jdgreger on Mar 18, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Md is a short ass team

Im a Favors fan, but keep in mind who he is playing when watching him. J-Will is 6-9 at best, and hes probably the tallest guy[or Gregory, also 6-9]. Plus i think anyone who says Favors all-around offensive game is better than Cousins’s at this point can’t unbiasedly evaluate players. Cousins is playing with the best player in the nation but at the same time he has soft hands and can finish around the basket. For a guy his size he moves well and can shoot the rock.


With Gilbert, Thornton, and Blatche, I think we’ll have enough offensive weapons to score when necessary. But without an anchor on defense, all of our scoring will be for naught.

JD beat me too it. We already had a big 3 with no defense but a great anchor. but hopefully Gil’s defensive shortcomings will be masked by 2 good defensive players down low.

by tw10 on Mar 20, 2010 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

bu
anyone who says Favors all-around offensive game is better than Cousins’s at this point can’t unbiasedly evaluate players.

And anyone that only looks at a player’s Offensive capabilities, rather than his all-around game (including Defense), cannot say they can fairly evaluate players either.

Favors has some things going against him (noted in previous posts) that Cousins doesn’t. Cousins has an elite PG getting him the ball in his sweet spots.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 20, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

While I love the draft and enjoy reading these profiles

All of this is leading to heartbreak if the Wizards aren’t owned by Leonsis by Draft Day. Grunfeld will do something colossally stupid, just like last year. And then during free agency, he will kill the Wizards’ cap room with a Joe Dumars Summer of 2009-like signing or two.

by disgrunted on Mar 18, 2010 1:51 PM EDT reply actions  

ugh...agreed

I hope Leonsis fires Grunfeld day 1.

by tw10 on Mar 18, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s no reason to assume Leonsis will purge the front office… I think he will bring in new personnel, but its not a foregone conclusion. Especially given the fact that Grunfeld is the only wiz GM in the past 30 years to have any semblance of success.
 
And last year, Grunfeld was carrying out his bosses’ orders. And one of his bosses was… you guessed it.

by jones-y on Mar 18, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

Grunfeld’s trade last year was pretty much 50-50… Lots of people thought trading the #5 pick was wrong… lots of people thought that Miller and Foye were worth much more than a 5th round pick in a slim draft…. (me included)…

But regardless – Grunfeld was operating under Abe’s orders to field a team that could WIN NOW…. a 5th round pick would not have helped the team this year.

We cannot assume that Ernie will trade the picks this year… as a matter of fact, since Abe’s death, all of Grunfeld’s moves have been “rebuilding” moves: dumping long term contracts (Jamison, Butler, Stevenson), getting an extra draft pick (Cleveland’s first rounder), signing young Free Agents (Livingston), bringing in D-League guys for a show (Mike Harris, Alonzo Gee), etc…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not going to revisit our arguments about this from last Spring, Rook (cough, Itoldyouso, cough), but can we at least now conclude that Grunfeld’s line that, “anybody we could have picked with the #5 pick would not have helped us this year,” has PROVEN to be grossly and demonstrably inaccurate, on a variety of levels. That you are repeating Grunfeld’s line in your post above as if it were still true is puzzling.

While we cannot assume what Grunfeld will do this year, what about his draft history suggests that he (1) will make the right decision; (2) knows how to pick any players other than offensive players with hit or miss upside; and (3) has any interest in properly building a contender through the draft? If Leonsis is in charge, I will feel more comfortable, because then even if Grunfeld is still around, Leonsis values building a team with young, talented players with great character, and Grunfeld will fall in line. Left to his own devices, however, there’s a great chance Grunfeld will screw it up royally once again.

by disgrunted on Mar 18, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Proven to be grossly and demonstrably inaccrurate?

How has it been proven that Stephan Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jordan Hill or anyone else available at #5 would have helped the Wizards this year?

EVERYONE, including the National Media (normally down on the Wizards) thought that the team was a top 4 or 5 seed in the Eastern Conference.

No one can honestly say that a #5 pick last year on a team that included Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Haywood etc…. would have even gotten any playing time. Rookies rarely get significant and consistent playing time on Playoff teams.

Hindsight is 20-20

It’s one thing to say you wanted the Wizards to keep the #5 pick (there were a lot of folks that said that) – but hardly anyone thought that player would step right in and help the Wizards THIS YEAR.

Your take on the trade (BEFORE THE DRAFT) was this:
In my mind, this trade was essentially the #5 for Foye, with a little added bonus of Mike Miller for a year. Let’s see how Foye does. As I mentioned, Flip lived in Minnesota this past year, and maybe he’s seen Foye a lot and really likes him. We’ll see.

by disgrunted on Jun 23, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough – you were essentially saying that the trade could work out in the Wizards favor – and that you’d like to wait and see. You were in a camp with a LOT of other people….

THEN on draft night, once Rubio slipped to number 5, you said this:
At best, Miller and Foye will be the team’s 4th and 5th best players, more likely the 5th and 6th best players. In time, Rubio could have been the 2nd or 3rd best player on the team.

by disgrunted on Jun 25, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
(bolding mine)

Not to put too fine a point on things – but even YOU said that Rubio would take time to become a good player….

Oh, and by the way, you were not all that upset that we didn’t get Brandon Jennings or Stephen Curry – - – only that we didn’t draft Rubio.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

That post is a bunch of bull, Rook

I’m really disappointed in you. You cherry-pick a couple of my posts (do you really have that kind of free time?), one of which I’m trying my best to put a positive spin on the trade, insinuating and trying to make me out to be a liar. That is total B.S.

That’s the last time I engage in any debate with you.

by disgrunted on Mar 18, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Look

I’m not trying to “call you out” or anything…

only trying to point out that a significant number of people thought Ernie’s trade was good for the team – AT THE TIME.

AND that there were a significant number of people that said any player picked at #5 in that weak draft would take years to develop… (except Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio, neither of which were supposed to be available at pick #5).

Neither of those points have been PROVEN to be grossly and demonstrably inaccurate, on a variety of levels

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

and then

getting back to my ORIGINAL point….. trying to discuss and debate your statement that Grunfeld will do something colossally stupid, just like last year. And then during free agency, he will kill the Wizards’ cap room with a Joe Dumars Summer of 2009-like signing or two…………………………

Grunfeld, when he was working under Abe Polin’s “win now” edict… made the trade, cashed in the 2nd round pick, and picked up veterans to shore up the Shooting Guard a noted weakness on the team (with Miller), backup point Guard (with Foye ) – not to mention automatically helping the Wizard’s 3-point shooting. He brought in Oberto ( a guy with playoff and Championship experience)….

Now that Abe is gone, and the Wizards are no longer in “win now” mode – Ernie has changed his spots. He is making moves designed around the FUTURE… not next year.

So – I say let’s see what he does with the draft…. What he does with the Cap room. We’ve already heard him say he may not even make a Free Agent acquisition this year…. perhaps saving the cap space for a move next year. He’s already obtained another first round pick…. and brought in a couple of young guys for evaluation (Livingston, Thornton, Gee, etc…) – those are things that he NEVER would have done under Abe’s “win now” orders.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree.

I think they would have rebuilt even if Abe didnt die yet. This team was garbage. I think Grunfeld is a joke.

by tw10 on Mar 20, 2010 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

reg- a 5th round pick would not have helped the team this year.

tell that to milwaukee (jennings)- who happened to have the most experience coming out of the draft having played professionally in europe

by les boulez bomber on Mar 18, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

The problem with doing hindsight evaluation of last offseason's personnel moves

is that you know things that you just couldn’t know back then. Like for example it would have been wise to keep the pick and take a PG prospect like Rubio, Curry, or Jennings because Gil was gonna miss most of the season and the team was gonna be right back in the lottery…

Its really ridiculous, if you ask me, to crucify Grunfeld because he didn’t know the future.

by jones-y on Mar 18, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, i am not criticizing the pick because i strongly feel the past few years were directed towards a final run for abe.

but it is not really hindsight analysis when the people we were really considering- hardin, evans, and curry turned out fine. we can talk about rubio but his agent said he would not come to washington so why bother.

by les boulez bomber on Mar 18, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

There were plenty of reasonable, smart people who hated the decision at the time

And the real problem is not the ultimate result, it’s that a) EG openly declared that nobody could help them, which was ridiculous then, b) traded the pick two days BEFORE draft day, c) made no effort to make it seem like he wanted to keep the pick, which killed his leverage, and d) traded the pick for the package he did (two average players at best).

And again, GMs are paid to forsee the future. Nobody’s perfect, but very few people make a series of royal mistakes like EG did in trading that pick for two average one-year rentals and then selling Blair.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 18, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

And while I'm sympathetic to the "Abe wanted this" angle

EG has a history of neglecting or failing at the draft that has always been troubling. Quick, name the last really good first-round pick he made:

Marcus Haislip? John Wallace? Oleksiy Pecherov? Hell, Nick Young? There are a lot of duds in there. Really, all you have is JaVale McGee, and the jury is definitely still out on that one. He’s also traded two top-five picks in his tenure here.

He does well on second-round picks, but you don’t build a team with those.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 18, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

A bad shot that goes in is a good shot.

A good shot that doesn’t go in is a bad shot.

by jones-y on Mar 18, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I don't agree with that

Bad process is bad process. It tends to normally lead to bad results.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 18, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, we've had this debate already

Every single year, the ‘experts’ (analysts, stats types, GMs, scouts, etc.) get some right and they get some wrong. To me, that’s (at least) just as much (if not more) due to factors that teams cannot control as it is to factors that are under the control of the team. You do your homework, you play your part in the development process, you try to create a good environment, and then you cross your fingers.

But anyway to address your point, you’ve got, in order from best to worst:

Devin Harris
Javale McGee (jury’s still out)
TJ Ford
Nick Young (jury’s still out)
John Wallace
Jason Collier
Marcus Haislip
Oleskiy Pecherov

Not the best, not the worst. Its notable that, of the draft picks above that are marginal or busts, all are mid-first round, 6-9 and above, PF/Cs. In a league where mainly only the top teams get the best big men in FA/trades (and the only real way for everyone else to get them is by drafting them), you can’t really fault the strategy, even though I’ll concede that you can (justifiably) pick holes in the results. Jury’s still out on Young and McGee.

And as you noted, yes he does indeed do well in the second round.

by jones-y on Mar 19, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Devin Harris doesn't count

He made that pick for Dallas. That was who the Mavericks wanted.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 19, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

And it also highlights the inherent problem with

isolating the draft from other player acquisition methods, and then evaluating the GM on that one aspect of player acquisition alone. The Devin Harris trade is the primary reason the wiz made the playoffs for 4 straight seasons.

by jones-y on Mar 19, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is a prospect threat

Ergo, we are evaluating his draft record in this thread. I think it’s pretty simple.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 19, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't like the trade at the time

But that’s mostly because I have never liked Miller (Florida bias. I can’t help it)

by imperialme on Mar 19, 2010 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sadly, it looks more likely that we get the 6 or 7 pick

which means Favors would be out of reach, though I would take him in a heartbeat. More likely, Aldrich will be there, and I think he should end up being a solid NBA center and could help us that way. Though, I dunno if I would want to spend the 6th pick on him. Here’s a question: would you package the 6th or 7th pick, along with Javale, for Favors at the 4th pick? I think that would be a reasonable trade for the receiving team!

by Tbonebullets on Mar 18, 2010 4:04 PM EDT reply actions  

No

JaVale still has more upside than anyone in the draft except Wall or Turner.

I mean, I really like Favors….. but not at that cost.

I’d trade Al Thornton or Nick Young, with the 6th or 7th pick for the opportunity to draft Favors….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 18, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

though I doubt Thornton or Nick have enough trade value for us to move up that way

though we do have that second first round pick, and our first round pick next year, that might entice a trade. If we get unlucky in the lottery and are assigned the 6 or 7 pick, the best alternative scenario for us might be if Utah, with the Knicks’ pick, sits in the 4th slot. I’m not sure they would want Cousins or Favors with the team they have now, so maybe they would trade down…

by Tbonebullets on Mar 18, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

We need size and strength

Is Favors big and strong enough to provide the interior toughness we need? Can Blatche play center? I believe in taking the best player available in most situations, but Favors is one of the worst possible fits for this team. If we’re in position to take him, I’d look into trading down a few picks (e.g., in exchange for a good prospect or 2011 first round pick.). I’m partly motivated by the fact that Favors has been thoroughly unimpressive in the few games I’ve seen him in, but mostly just by the fact that this team needs everything but a starting PF.

by steadyhand on Mar 18, 2010 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

I think he is the best guy that is a possibility for the Wiz in this draft.

I guess I just don’t wanna get my hopes up for Turner or Wall. But it sounds like Favors would be a good fit with Blatche. And he seems like a guy that is going to be helping his team, even if he isn’t scoring. Where Cousins, on the other hand, could be a big-time bust if, especially if he doesn’t like his role on a team and isn’t getting the amount of touches he would like.

The more balls the better... ping-pong balls, that is.

by returnofswagger on Mar 18, 2010 5:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice write up

I’ve been intrigued with this kid for awhile and had placed him above Cousins on my draft wish list a awhile ago. Since GT has finally started using him the way he should be used his stock is rising and thus it’s going to be harder to “steal” this kid, depending on our draft position. I’m convinced he will be able to play center in the NBA.

by Mike Uhrich on Mar 18, 2010 6:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Love all of these

Can you do one of these for Oklahoma State’s James Anderson?

by qthaballa on Mar 19, 2010 12:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Oh!!

And another one for Jarvis Varnado!!!!!!!!

by qthaballa on Mar 19, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

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