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Why the Wizards can afford to wait on trading Caron Butler

There are several reasons for wanting to move Caron Butler ASAP, even before Antawn Jamison.  Unlike Jamison, Butler has been a really poor fit for Flip Saunders' offense and hasn't really tried hard enough to fit in.  Unlike Jamison, Butler is often playing like he wants to be elsewhere.  Unlike Jamison, Butler has been consistently unproductive this season.  Unlike Jamison, Butler has been on a clear downward trend since his career year in 2008.  Unlike with Jamison, there have been clear complaints about Butler's attitude behind the scenes (though we do need to consider the source of said complaints).  

All these reasons make sense in a vacuum.  But this isn't a vacuum.  This is 2010, and drastic financial changes are on the way.  The NBA landscape after 2011 will look very different than it does right now.  Contracts will be much smaller and likely much shorter.  Cap exceptions could be a thing of the past.  Guys with long-term deals past 2011 that are properly paid now could be dramatically overpaid in the future.  

For a rebuilding team like the Wizards, this means cutting out all contracts past 2011 to preserve cap flexibility when the dust settles should be paramount.  So why is it that the Wizards are demanding more than cap relief for their contract past 2011, while sounding like they'll settle for luxury tax relief for the player whose contract expires before the new CBA?

Yeah, I don't get it either 

Star-divide

A full-scale rebuild requires big-picture thinking.  If the Wizards were close to a playoff berth, then they have more reason to worry about the concerns of keeping Caron Butler on board for one more season.  But they're not, and they probably won't be next year (nor should they, if it means keeping the gang together).

In a nutshell, the Wizards are likely worried that keeping Caron Butler means the following:

  • Butler, who seems to have been distressed with his role and the losing enough to put forth less than a maximum effort, will continue to do so if he's not dealt, and a losers mentality will permeate.
  • Butler's play will continue to decline, thanks in part to his age and the first bullet point, and he will have even less value over the offseason and next year.
  • The Wizards, who are likely looking at a luxury-tax payment this year, could avoid another in 2011 by dealing Butler for cap relief.  They could then potentially re-sign Brendan Haywood and Mike Miller and still be under the tax.  Additionally, they could get a team trading for Butler to throw in up to $3 million in cash to soften the tax blow.

Bullet point one is unimportant for this year.  The Wizards aren't making the playoffs, so any negative effect Butler's pouting (if he does indeed pout, which I don't see happening) has on the Wizards' win total doesn't matter.  In fact, more losses might be better for the Wizards because it increases their chances of getting a top pick in the draft.  As for a losers mentality - it's pretty clear a losers mentality has already slipped in anyway.  Flip Saunders has said that the Wizards shouldn't believe it can't get worse because it can, but it's tough to imagine the attitude inside that locker room getting any more negative (I know this word isn't totally descriptive, but I can't think of one that would be) past the trade deadline.  In fact, it probably would only get better if only because the players will feel less uncertainty about their immediate futures.

Point two is overblown.  What's the worst thing that happens if Butler is so bad that nobody wants him over the offseason?  The Wizards keep him and just let him expire before 2011.  Again, for a rebuilding team, that's not the end of the world.  The Wizards can wash their hands of Butler before the new CBA comes into play.

But the real problem here is point three.  Why?  Trading Antawn Jamison for cap relief only provides the same exact effect as trading Butler.  You get under the luxury tax next year simply by trading Jamison for Zydrunas Ilgauskas' expiring contract.  You can avoid a luxury tax payment this year by trading Jamison for Z, buying out Ilgauskas and asking Cleveland for $3 million in cash in return for letting them get Ilgauskas back after 30 days.  (In fact, you probably get more tax relief this year via the buying out of Z).  Then, there's the added benefit of clearing a contract that goes past the new CBA.  Fifteen million dollars for a 35-year old Jamison in 2012 under a drastically different CBA is an albatross, even though it's an expiring contract.  Just look at how much trouble Houston and Boston are having finding contracts to match up to Tracy McGrady's and Ray Allen's massive expiring deals.  (Not to mention if you trade Jamison's expiring deal, you're only taking on more bad contracts long-term).

The worst thing that happens if Butler doesn't get moved and Jamison does is that there's a little more losing, because of the "losers mentality" thing, a little more locker-room snipping on a team that snips at each other anyway, a slight leadership void on a rudderless team anyway and the prospect of keeping Butler for one more year before the new CBA comes into effect.  The worst thing that happens if Jamison doesn't get moved and Butler does is that the team wins just enough to put themselves out of high lottery position, the two young centers (Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee) don't get enough PT for the Wizards to properly evaluate them AND the Wizards get stuck with Jamison's larger contract past the new CBA, when $15 million for a 35-year old somehow becomes even less palatable for a rebuilding team.  

In other words, big-picture wise, it makes no sense to trade Caron Butler for mere cap relief and insist on keeping Jamison unless you get more than cap relief.

This isn't to say we must keep Butler.  Eventually, he'll be gone anyway, so getting value for him now would be smart.  However, if we're going to move him, we absolutely need more than cap relief.  If Dallas is willing to surrender Rodrigue Beaubois, do it.  If Houston will give up Kyle Lowry ... well, I'd have to think about it, but it certainly makes me more willing to make the move.  If Portland will give up Rudy Fernandez, do it 100 times.  But if all that's being offered is pointless cap relief for 2010, when cutting money past 2011 should be the priority, just keep Butler and send Jamison to Cleveland for Ilgauskas.  You get the cap relief anyway.  

Bottom line: Ernie, please look at the big picture.  I know there's not much incentive for you to do so, since you could easily lose your job anyway, but for the sake of us fans, please do it.  

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and the congregation says Amen

I voted for Haywood to go first in the poll, but this point clearly outlies why Jamison should be gone ahead of Butler.

2009 BTB Part Deux Fantasy League Champion. 'Kill Everybody 13-2'. KDP knows football.

by KDP on Feb 8, 2010 1:40 PM EST reply actions  

Great points

I thought getting rid of Jamisons contract while we still can was a great idea, and I had not even considered the ramifications of a new CBA. I don’t mind the stone walling, if at the end of the day we pull the trigger on a Z for Jamison trade. I have no problem trying to get Hickson and JJ also. I just hope ernie has come to this same conclusion and trades jamison while he still can.

I don’t know that the order matters, just as long as we trade them both before the deadline

by Blatche4MVP on Feb 8, 2010 2:02 PM EST reply actions  

Good point, though they should both pack their bags

I agree that Jamison should be the priority, because he’ll be harder to deal. Butler on the other hand will be attractive to even more teams after this season b/c he is an EC, and if some teams lose out on the LeBron’s and Wade’s they might look to add another wing player. I have no interest in a Butler deal with Dallas I don’t think the Wiz would be getting nearly enough back.

by Steveo26 on Feb 8, 2010 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

I guess you make

a good point. Obviously it would make sense for us to move Jamison as soon as we can. Although I STILL think Butler’s trade value has declined this year.

by CJHutch on Feb 8, 2010 2:37 PM EST reply actions  

great post

i dont know why we didnt pull the trigger on jamison for hickson, in one of its various iterations, weeks ago. i actually think caron butler could be a good source of veteran leadership on a young/rebuilding team, but it would require him to buy into the rebuild and the coaching staff and thats completely up to him. i also agree that beaubois is an interesting young player and i might be willing to give up butler for him, as long as we can throw in stevenson or mike james and maybe get back an expiring like josh howard, drew gooden, tim thomas etc. if we also lose gil’s contract, we can really free up some cap space and be players in this year’s FA market, and then i think a more appetizing rebuild, at least to ernie, could involve some decent second-tier FAs (i’m high on joe johnson). unrelated point, i hope we don’t draft cole aldrich (which some early mock drafts have us doing). sorry for the somewhat schizoid nature of this post.

by jeffbenson on Feb 8, 2010 2:37 PM EST reply actions  

I agree completely

Caron has value either way – as an expirer next year or as talent on a reasonable contract this year, so why give him away for nothing? That deal with Cleveland needs to be done, though, since Antawn is not on a very good contract. The way I see it, these should be our goals with all of our trade chips:

Caron – young talent, picks, contracts that expire this year or by 2011 if the player is over 27
Antawn – expirers, a draft pick, a decent young player (Hickson’s no future star, but he’s a rotation player on a good team). The Cleveland deal is perfect here.
Brendan – some combination of draft picks and young players. Batum would be fine.
Everyone else – picks, picks, and more picks, and no really long-term salary. The only guy I would keep no matter what is McGee, and it’d be nice to keep Foye if at all possible, even though he’s perfect for LA and to a lesser extent Miami, Boston, Cleveland, and Denver.

Guys we should push for – Tyrus Thomas, Batum, Fernandez, Ty Lawson, Kyle Lowry, maybe Beaubois (sp?) if you all really think he’s that good, and JR Smith. My dream player is Lowry, who reminds me a bit of Rondo as far as being a great defensive and rebounding point guard. If he can cut down on his turnovers, he’ll be really really good.

by pantslessyoda1 on Feb 8, 2010 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

Great Point

I would always say, we should get rid of Butler before we get rid of Jamison, because Jamison has been playing good ball and Butler hasn’t.

But money is the issue here. Hell, we gonna suck with or without both these guys. Good ball isn’t the issue. Money is. And I can see why Jamison ought to go BEFORE Butler does. But yes, they both should be packing their bags if we gonna blow this thing up.

Let’s blow this thing up and start over… with Gilbert Arenas? Haha. This is all too funny. I hope that dude isn’t playing XBOX all day. We’re gonna need him next year. Hahahahaha.

My swag was phenomenal.

by se7en on Feb 8, 2010 5:05 PM EST reply actions  

One more reason

If we trade Jamison first (especially if we had done it weeks ago), we could make Butler the first, second and third option on offense (lake Harris on the Nets last year). I think it would even revitalize him being the center of attention. He would rack up great stats and seem much better than he is. We’d get more ping-pong balls, and Butler’s value would go up instead of down. The window is probably closed on this maneuver though…I think it was a real missed opportunity that we didn’t pull the trigger on the Jamison deal the minute Arenas got suspended.

by steadyhand on Feb 8, 2010 5:16 PM EST reply actions  

The New CBA would be a great tool for rebuilding. Maybe another lockout is looming?

by Fundefined on Feb 8, 2010 5:19 PM EST reply actions  

Jamison and Haywood should go...

Give Butler the keys to the car providing he drives it like Flip tells him to…

by khrabb on Feb 8, 2010 5:26 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, they need value for Butler

Personally, I don’t think that cap relief alone is reason enough to get rid of very many players on this roster. Only Deshawn Stevenson and Mike James come to mind.

They can’t expect to get equal value for Caron – unless by “equal”, you mean a wildly inconsistent player. But they won’t get close to equal value for Jamison, either – and that’s more problematic. Jamison isn’t perfect, but he scores a lot, routinely. I doubt they can afford to lose him – and certainly not for Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Hell, why not settle for Luke Longley? Yeah, he’s retired, but surely he’s got some free throws left in him.

Unrelated: Every time I see the acronym “CBA”, I think that they’re moving the Wizards to the Continental Basketball Association – which is apparently still around, btw.

by satchmore on Feb 8, 2010 8:24 PM EST reply actions  

They won't get equal value for anybody

You never do when you rebuild. But at least Butler expires by the new CBA, whereas Jamison is older, more expensive, and doesn’t.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 8, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Fire EG

Promote FS to GM. Bring in Ewing to coach.

Get some balls and void Arenas’ contract.

Trade Jamison.

Figure out what star you need more next year – a point guard or a center.

by Izman on Feb 8, 2010 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

come a little bit closer

im all alone and the night is so long

by jeffbenson on Feb 8, 2010 9:54 PM EST reply actions  

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