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Trying to look on the bright side after Josh Howard's injury

There's no question that Josh Howard's season-ending injury hurts.  For Howard, it's obviously the worst timing possible, because he's likely going to be a free agent after the season.  Here was his chance to recoup his value and get one more somewhat lucrative contract from somebody, and he gets hurt after playing four of his best games of the season.  I feel for him.  For the Wizards, it dashes any faint playoff hopes and removes a guy who was playing extremely hard.  There's always the concern the rest of the team loses their spirit after something like this, though yesterday's performance eases those doubts somewhat.

But as much as this is painful for Howard (at all times) and the Wizards (in the short-term), it might not be the worst thing in the world. Let's try to walk through a couple silver linings below the jump:

Star-divide

1.  This eliminates any chance he'll have his option picked up

I've been reading some of you make interesting cases for picking up Josh Howard's $12 million option this year, but the truth is, there was never any reason to do something like that.  You have to pay somebody, I suppose, but why pay someone $12 million when you can let Howard go, start Al Thornton and use that money elsewhere?  That's $12 million less to use to make an unbalanced trade, sign Mike Miller (if you want) or, hell, sign someone better if that's what you so choose.  As much as Howard has been a boost in his short time in DC, he's not worth $12 million to this club.

I've also read the argument that Howard becomes a trade chip at the 2011 trade deadline because of his expiring contract.  To that, I say two things.  First of all, good players on expiring contracts rarely bring back much value, as we've seen this year.  Secondly, unless we sign a max free agent, we're really not in the position to be taking on long-term salary for final-piece type players, especially with the new CBA coming.  So I don't see the point of keeping Howard to trade him.

At the very least, Howard's injury provides a bit more clarity to his future in DC.  That's too bad for Howard of course, but it probably is good for the organization to know.

2.  This gives Al Thornton his chance

Ultimately, I think Al Thornton is who he is for the most part.  He'll always be a relatively inefficient, but athletic small forward that plays aggressively, but doesn't pass much at all.  However, that's not to say he can't make marginal improvements, particularly defensively and on the offensive glass.  Those marginal improvements will come easier with more playing time.

After last night's game, I spoke to Thornton briefly about his time with the Clippers.  He seems very happy to be here, though obviously we have to keep in mind that we're talking about a three-game sample during which his team is winning.  Still, my growing sense is that he was kind of fed up with his situation with the Clippers.  Mike Dunleavy is the kind of coach who wants his small forwards to sit in the corner and space the floor while Dunleavy calls a set play for someone else, and that doesn't suit Thornton's game particularly well.  When I asked him about the differences between the two situations, he issued a pretty interesting parting shot to the Clippers.

"[With] my time with the Clippers, man, recently I didn't know where I was going to be night in and night out in terms of minutes.  Like I said, sometimes I played 30 minutes, and the next game, I played three minutes.  I really didn't know.  With this team, I feel like I'm going to have a chance to come out and play every night and compete, and if I get a chance to go out there on the floor, I know I'm going to be effective.  So that's the biggest difference." 

Obviously, this isn't totally accurate, because Thornton did get consistent minutes a lot in LA in his three-year career, but the bottom line is that he felt this way and it might have affected his play.  His defensive rebounding, for example, slipped noticeably off his rookie-year mark, which is significant because that strikes me as an effort stat.  Then, of course, there's his defense, which has been excellent in his first few games here after being pretty poor in LA this year.  Now that Howard is out of the picture, at least Thornton might get the kind of opportunity necessary to put himself in the right frame of mind, which is important because, for better or worse, Thornton's going to be on the roster next year unless he's traded.

3.  It might finally spur a look at the D-League

One of my constant annoyances with this front office has been its disinclination to look at the NBA Developmental League for talent and, well, player development.  However, assuming the news Scott broke about Mike Harris is true, this injury will have opened up a spot for a D-League guy.  The Wizards may have looked toward the D-League anyway with so many potential open spots on the roster, but this now forces their hand.  If Howard's injury leads to us signing Mike Harris (and maybe others) and them starring, it could lead us to consider using the D-League more, both in terms of our own affiliate in Dakota and in terms of finding cheap talent on other rosters.  It'll be a small step back for what I believe is a big step forward.

Okay, so maybe reason #3 is a bit of a reach, but the point remains that there are some silver linings to Josh Howard's injury that could ease the pain of yet another Wizard going down.  (Shameless plug: buy BF's injury T-shirt here).

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d-leaguers can be rotation guys

just watch the Warriors. Those guys can play.

by tw10 on Feb 23, 2010 5:48 PM EST reply actions  

Damn

The Wizards are just going to have to fill that gap. EG has got to have some players that the scouts have up for just this bummer of a scenario. It’ll be interesting when the decision time comes, i just think Howards wanted here more than the Mgmnt says or needs to say at this time. Just because its great to playoff experienced players in the mix. Bummer. They need to overcome the Foye & the Boykin.

by Mikko Leinonen's opposite on Feb 23, 2010 7:24 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Yes, foye and boykins are a problem (boykins not as much), we need to fix our backcourt asap.

by CBDirty30 on Feb 23, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

The Hornets second round SG

Marcus Thornton is single-handedly beating the Cavs right now. 19 in the second quarter for him with over 5 min left.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 7:53 PM EST reply actions  

is no. 4 for clev. guarding him?

"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith

by little stevie colter on Feb 23, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Apparently no one is

Collison and Thornton are a ridiculous pair of backcourt rookies. He ended up with 23 on 10-13 shooting.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

we are off topic - but

wiz should think about gong hard after collison

"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith

by little stevie colter on Feb 23, 2010 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure what we could give up to get him

Thornton with 33 now with 9:45 left in the 4th. And he didn’t play in the first quarter.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I know that the Wiz were over the Lux Tax

but then they traded McGuire for a (non-existent) second round draft pick – to get under the tax….

The Wizards have only 13 players on the roster (Arenas and Crittenton are suspended, and do not count as roster spots). With James wanting out, and Ilgauskas wanting to go back to Cleveland – that would leave the Wizards with only 11 players on the roster. (Minimum roster is 13 players)

It’s my impression that they didn’t get below the tax by much… Ernie is going to have to tightrope walk that Lux Tax line…. If he wants to sign a D-League guy, he’s gonna have to get at least that much salary back from either Ilgauskas or James…. and if he signs a second D-League guy – ditto.

Perhaps that’s what is taking so long negotiating buy-outs with Ilgauskas and James?

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Feb 23, 2010 8:13 PM EST reply actions  

You could definitely be right

But another thing to consider is that the longer the negotiations go, the less the buyout counts.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 8:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I may be misremembering, but ...

I don’t think that the players you are required to sign in order to meet league roster requirements count for tax purposes.

by Manimal Smith on Feb 23, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Larry Hughes was just cut by the Kings!

i like the idea of giving a d-leaguer a chance, but larry is one of my favorite players. we should bring him in for a workout! id love to see larry back in the blue and gold!

by tw10 on Feb 23, 2010 8:56 PM EST reply actions  

Problem

If you bring in a rookie from the D-League, you are paying the prorated amount of a rookie salary ($457,588).

If you bring in 11-year veteran Larry Hughes, you are paying the prorated veteran salary ($1,306,455)

If the Wizards are close to the Cap, look for them to bring in rookies…… at the lower salaries.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Feb 23, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

He definitely had his best years here and probably wishes he never left

But does he really have anything left in the tank?? Seems to have been running on empty these past couple of years.

by TheRealBigMike on Feb 24, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Nick Young will need to step up big-time to fill the void left by Howard

my question is: will he? can he? Andray did, but Young hasn’t shown any ability to do so on a consistent basis. does anybody believe he can?

by CVC on Feb 23, 2010 9:55 PM EST reply actions  

No

I’d much rather have Miller play more at SG and let Ross on the court more. We don’t have many options though with such a thin roster.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Young is so one dimensional

..but if he wants to stay in the league, he ought to focus on being the high-octane scorer coming off the bench during the first substituion in the first and second halves. Remember, Vinny “The Microwave” Johnson of the 80s Pistons? His only job was to score 6-8 points coming off the bench, and give the starters a rest. Young will never be a 40 minute NBA player, but he could do what Johnson did…I think.

by CVC on Feb 23, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he's efficient enough to fill that role

But I haven’t really evaluated the stats – that’s just been my impression. He seems to need time to warm up.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course

I’m not sure what our other options would be either.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Young is already guaranteed for next year...

 They could trade him…. but outright releasing him is not an option.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Feb 23, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I was assuming we were talking about 2011.

But speculating about what might happen is guaranteed to make us look foolish with all the variables involved with new ownership, gil, etc.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Young

…hasn’t worked out. He needs a change of scenario – such as in the LA Clippers.

by Izman on Feb 24, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he could if Flip allowed it

unfortunatley if he starting jacking and missed, he would be afraid of never seeing any more playing time. if flip said, go nuts. I will still put you in the rotations. Then all speed ahead. Nick is just lost. He can’t fight through picks, he wants to take folks one on one all the time. He just has a fragile psyche.

by jdgreger on Feb 23, 2010 10:33 PM EST up reply actions  

fragile psyche

Blatche was the same way, sort of; but Young hasn’t shown any to overcome it. When he misses his first shots, he begins to press. When he blows one defensive coverage, he begins to overthink on defense.

by CVC on Feb 23, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Does this injury have a downside for Wizards?

We have zero interest in competing this year, wins mean a lower chance at a high draft pick.
We have no reason to pick up Howard’s 10 mill option for next season. Bottom-10 teams have no reason to give big contracts to players approaching 30.
We have no reason to play him over players who factor into our future.

Obviously heartfelt sympathy to Howard from his personal perspective, but from the Wizards perspective the injury saves us money for next seasom (taking the option off the table of the Wiz wasting money trying to halfass it by picking up his option instead of cutting salary way back to rebuild), improves our draft chances, and forces us to play the players who might be major pieces of our rebuilding.

by morethesamewiz on Feb 23, 2010 10:17 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe no downside

But it’s hard for me not to root for the playoffs. So far the results of tonight’s games look good. Miami and the Knicks lost. And Memphis is on the verge of beating the Lakers – they might let down a little tomorrow.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I spoke too soon about Memphis

Mayo choked missing both FTs late, and Kobe hit a 3 to win. Either way, the Grizzlies might be mentally and physically exhausted after that one.

by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 23, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Do I need to post the Jim Mora Playoff Video

I admire your optimism but this is not a play-off team.

by ccrun1800 on Feb 24, 2010 8:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Another young player

….gets to step up.

This has been the obvious answer to the Wizard’s woes for a while now.

by Izman on Feb 24, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions  

honest questions

can a 1 year deal really be considered a big contract?

could JH be back in the lineup by next December?

by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 24, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Are You Referring to His Team Option

or a separate one year deal? I would think that this injury would make Howard understandable if we don’t pick up his option, and would enable us to resign him to a one year deal for much less. I, for one, would like to see Howard back if we can get him cheaply.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Feb 24, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

just generally, 1 year deals

and what’s the timeframe on an ACL rehab?

by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 24, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly One Calendar Year is a Good Starting Reference

Athletes have been able to comeback in a shorter time frame, but as we’ve seen with Gilbert, that can be risky. Carson Palmer and Tom Brady both made it back in less than a year, but you could argue that their performances have declined from their pre-injury days, and that a football quarterback puts less strain on his knees and only for one day a week.

My best guess would be that Howard could return and play by this point next season, if we wanted to be safe.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Feb 24, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

My best guess would be that Howard could return and play by this point next season, if we wanted to be safe.

I agree with you there. I think the real question is how long till he is back at full strength dropping twenty something a night?

by ccrun1800 on Feb 24, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

My Hope Is

If he doesn’t rush his comeback, and gives himself at least 11 months before attempting any kind of strenuous activity, he could be ready to contribute by February, and work the rust off of his game by March. But it all depends.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Feb 24, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Not Exactly

We would sign him to the NBA minimum for a 2 or 3 year contract in the hopes that he would be the same player he was for two months next season (and hopefully a playoff run) and a full season after that. If he makes it back as planned and is the same player, it will have worked out beautifully. Otherwise, we have only lost a relatively small amount of money.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Feb 25, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

if we and howard were smart, he would sign a one year at his whatever his min is and be the man on probably a crappy team, pad his stats and sign away for a big contract in 2012. i know gil will prob be playing too but there is room for him to put up career best #s with us next year. if we can get him cheap.

just a thought

by les boulez bomber on Feb 23, 2010 10:24 PM EST reply actions  

not sure if the recovery schedule

from his injury works with this plan.

"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith

by little stevie colter on Feb 23, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Even So

Is Howard not worth a chance at a minimum salary for next season? Why not bring him back and see what he can do? If he can recover better than Gil did (and presumably quicker), then it might be a good risk to take. If he does make a full comeback, then we can lock him up long-term. Why not take the chance?

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Feb 24, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

no it does not appear so. that insight was not avail when i posted. ok…two years and get him for a little more than a year. but that really changes things if he has to be paid north of 4-5mm because of some league min. hope he had insurance!

by les boulez bomber on Feb 24, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

What is His Minimum?

If it is around $4 – $5 million, like you said, then he will not play next season.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Feb 24, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Had not heard about Hughes being cut...

I assume his return to dc would be possible if the negotiations with Z work out and James agrees to a release. In James’ case, he has already been paid 65% of his final contract year’s salary so he loses almost nothing to leave the remaining money on the table in exchange for a chance to sign up with a playoff bound team that needs a scoring PG.

We can debate up and down whether Hughes has anything left, but (1) he still has fans here, (2) he is as prideful player as any and obviously feels he has something to prove and (3) he plays the same position as Josh Howard… Oh and if he can still play and if we are going to have to stay with Gil for a spell, the two did have good chemistry.

by khrabb on Feb 24, 2010 3:38 AM EST reply actions  

As is typical for Larry Hughes...

He’s hurt. Has a broken finger!

by bozomoeman on Feb 24, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Mike James is guaranteed

He’s hoping for his release b/c he’ll get paid for the rest of his contract (roughly $2.5MM) and still be eligible to be paid (presumably the minimum, or around $450k) somewhere else.

Regardless of the merits of Hughes right now, he’s not part of our future. I’d rather audition some younger guys.

by RamV on Feb 24, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Son of a

JHoward out for the season . Damn.

by Mikko Leinonen's opposite on Feb 24, 2010 4:53 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I don't see a bright side nor a dark side

On a personal level I feel horrible for JHow. Terrible timing, a real blow. Just plain sucks.

On a basketball level I don’t really care. I don’t see the upside of your 3 points: I really didn’t think we were picking up the option anyway; Thornton is what he is, I don’t think a little extra PT is going to make a big difference and I also don’t think he’s part of the long range plans; The D league point is a stretch but I’m glad to give someone who has had success elsewhere a look I guess.

I never believed we were making the playoffs anyway…so that angle isn’t doing much for me.

The biggest changes I see are the excitement of the games this year, but I have been expecting an energy letdown anyway so I’m not hung up on that…and a couple extra ping pong balls, although I have little faith in that system.

So all in all I see your points but none of them really strike much of a note for me either way, so mostly I’m left just feeling bad for Howard and fearing the possibility that there really is a curse.

by MR on Feb 24, 2010 10:01 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah

I don’t really care either. I feel bad for Howard, in that he will probably be signing a one year contract next season. But he wasn’t in our long range plans anyway, so letting other guys who might be here take his playing time is better for us in the long run anyway.

Also, I guess I’m in the minority here, but I actually like Al Thornton. Do I think he’ll ever be an all star? Absolutely not. But I love his energy and aggression, and I think he will make a very good 2nd to 3rd option for this team. I am happy to have a small forward who attacks the rim and tries to get every rebound he can. You just can’t have enough players like that on your team. I guess I’m in the minority on Nick Young as well. I am still holding out hope for him, albeit just a little. But I have learned my lesson from over the summer, when I was more than ready to give up on Blache. I have just seen too many games where Nick Young was the best offensive player on the court for us, if not the entire court. Sure, he needs to grow up and develop some serious consistency. But this was the exact same thing I said about Blatche last summer.

by CJHutch on Feb 24, 2010 12:07 PM EST reply actions  

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