Assessing where the Wizards stand after a wild trade deadline
At the end of the day, the Wizards did what they had to do. This team badly needed to be blown up. It probably ran it's course by the time last year rolled around, but with Abe Pollin desperately seeking a winner before he passed on, we tried to ride this thing out one more year and make something happen. It didn't happen, so we needed to start over. As of yesterday at 3 p.m., we have officially started over.
In that sense, it's hard to call this series of moves a failure, per se. Ernie Grunfeld and the rest of the management team were given a directive to clean house and get under the luxury tax while doing it. They accomplished that. The absolute worst thing that could have happened was salary-dumping Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood while holding onto Antawn Jamison and staying over the luxury tax. That would have meant that Ernie failed to accomplish even the most basic of tasks set before him. You could kiss goodbye maximum cap flexibility in 2010 and 2011 and any hope of any development of our youngsters. Luckily, Ernie found a way to move Jamison a day before the deadline, thereby avoiding that doomsday scenario.
Then again, it's hard to call this series of moves a success either. Yes, we got maximum cap room this summer and beyond. Yes, we eliminated all our high long-term salaries, except Gilbert Arenas' of course. But it still stings to think that, in return for our three best players, we got just expiring contracts, a 26-year old Al Thornton, James Singleton and what'll likely be the 30th pick in the draft. That's rough. We're always dealing with incomplete information when assessing whether a GM got proper value for his players, but I think it's safe to say that Ernie got almost no on-court value for guys that should have yielded some. In that sense, this is a failure.
While we moved Jamison in the end, I still strongly disagree with the decision to move Butler and Haywood out first for expiring contracts instead of moving Jamison first. Even with Butler's spotty play this year, we could have likely gotten more for him than we did. If not, the Butler/Josh Howard trade was always going to be there, and we could have thrown someone like Nick Young their way for their trade exception to help with the luxury tax problem. Judging from what I've been reading, Dallas was prepared to move Howard anyway. As for Haywood, Portland supposedly offered a pretty good package (Steve Blake, Jeff Pendergraph and a pick, or possibly the rights to Petteri Koponen) before they eventually moved on to Marcus Camby. Had we held out until closer to the deadline, I'm confident someone would have budged and offered some good basketball assets for Haywood. These were missed opportunities.
Still, at the end of the day, the necessary rebuilding has begun. While we should have gotten more prospects and/or picks, it's unlikely we could have received a true building-block type of player anyway for Jamison, Butler or Haywood. Cleveland held out J.J. Hickson, Dallas held out Rodrigue Beaubois and Portland said no to Rudy Fernandez -- and those aren't even building-block types. A failure to get one of those guys is a failure, but it isn't an epic failure. This team's prospects don't dramatically change if J.J. Hickson is on the roster. They would have dramatically changed if Antawn Jamison and his big long-term contract stayed on the roster. Now, we can at least begin the slow, patient road back to respectability and more, when hopefully 40-45 wins and first-round playoff exits are disappointments, not something to cheer.
I realize we, as fans of this franchise, have witnessed too many failed rebuilding efforts to put too much trust in rebuilding, but just because it failed before doesn't mean we should refuse to rebuild. Every great team in this league (except the Lakers, who are the Lakers) went through rebuilding. It's the only chance you get to get good. That doesn't mean every rebuilding team succeeds, but to win in this league, you need a franchise cornerstone, smart cap management, several building blocks to complement your cornerstone and a few veterans to help show the way. You don't get those pieces unless you commit to a long-term rebuilding plan and give yourself options.
At the very least, we accomplished that. We didn't accomplish it as well or as smoothly as I would have liked, but we did accomplish it.
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trade deadline deals show ernie isn't the guy the wiz should move forward with
first off, great stuff throughout the trade season … the team did what it had to do in terms of getting under the luxary tax, i get that but as, a season ticket holder, i wish i could have felt as if the team made at least one move with the idea of helping the on court product … even right up to the end, when they traded mcguire(a guy i think was use) so they could sneak under the cap … to me that move was an example of the laziness of ernie, once he traded butler and jamison, he had options to make more moves to create more cap space and pick up a few assets, not to mention just getting dallas to use its trade exception … if they plan to resign miller and foye, fine, but if they dont, they could have traded them in exchange for someone’s crappy expiring, some contending team has to have use for those players … seeing houston’s haul in the mcgrady deal makes me wonder y we wouldnt try to have worked something out with the knicks, if u looked at the moves as a whole, it doesnt seem as if ernie came remotely close to maximizing his return
Josh Howard helps the on court product now. Cap space helps it in the future.
And Miller and Foye are already expiring contracts themselves. Why trade them for ostensibly lesser players with identical contracts? Unless you come away with a draft pick or 2…
Ernie did maximise his return given the circumstances. Circumstances. If they were different, then you would be correct in being disappointed. As they are, I don’t think disappointment is in order.
I would have liked the see
that Portland trade for Haywood go through, but I like Thornton…will see him tonight! AT LEAST we get to see Blatche and McGee make strides to get better.
once the gilbert thing happened....
the ensuing fire sale was inevitable, as was the fact that the rest of the league knew that EG was hardly dealing from strength. Plus the Pollin family’s priorities were on cutting costs and maximizing seling price, not building for the future. Add the fact that there will ultimately be a new owner and that Gilbert is at least a possibility to be back in the familiar Wizzie 0 uniform next season, and I would say that it is highly likely that EG has a gold watch in his future. His reward for being a good soldier will come later, with a GM job on another team.
is gil's contract really the worst in the league?
i keep reading that. it seems like hyberbole. it’s a bad contract, yeah, but long-term, someone explain to me how it’s worse than elton brand’s?
or what about dahntay jones? corey maggette? michael redd? i’m sure there are others. (and i’ll bet there’ll be some whoppers handed out this summer too.)
gil will probably never be worth that much, yeah, but he doesn’t look completely washed up either. i’d rather pay him max money than rudy gay or joe johnson or david lee or rashard lewis.
i’d think the wiz arguably have a better outlook than the pistons, t-wolves, pacers, bucks, warriors, maybe even celtics in a year. and particularly the knicks, once they strike out this summer.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 19, 2010 12:19 PM EST reply actions
Its a combo of the contract itself and the player attached.
For approx $30 million, the wiz have gotten exactly 34 games (out of a possible 132), approx 750 points, approx 240 assists, approx 3000 (j/k) turnovers, and three maybe four guns. Oh and a $25k fine.
if you look at the last three years
definitely. worst contract. no question.
if you look at the next four? (not sure if he has 3 or 4 left) he might be clearly the best player on someone’s team. that team might even be good. i don’t think you can say that for brand.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 19, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with DWF
Eventually, we’ll likely wonder why we thought it was so awful.
Then again, until Gil proves he can actually be good AND behave for a long stretch, I can understand why people think it’s the worst.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
well. that's a good point
i guess i’m kind of assuming he’ll get his act together after this debacle.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 19, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Me too
But I can also understand people not assuming that after all his injuries and this latest episode.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I dont want to sound like a bleeding optimist
but I think gun gate was the best thing that to happen to Gil. The first quarter of the season showed that we would never be successful with the Big Three and something was going to have to change. Gil getting suspended , though extremely dumb on his part, gave EG the perfect excuse to tear the team down. Notice no was upset that he made the trades just what he got back for making them.
Imagine if we were sitting 5 games below .500 with Gil rounding into form. The debate on here would have been crazy heading into the trad deadline about what to do with our Jekell and Hyde team.
Now with cap room and what I believe will be the hungriest NBA player next year I still have hope that the Wiz can make some noise.
The Big Three has defintely run its course and Gil’s suspension was the cleanest break I think we could have gotten.
big assumption
we can only hope. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
Yes, and to me it's not even close
Gil’s contract is a monster — bigger and longer than any you mentioned (and most of those guys aren’t bad). That’s the biggest problem. But it’s also bad because Gilbert is a terrible defender and is generally bad for team chemistry on and off the court. He also turns the ball over quite a lot. The talent is there, but to me, he’s only the 7th-12th best point guard in the league (I know you’ll ask, so these guys I think are better or close to it: Paul, Nash, DWill, Billups, Rondo and Kidd for sure; then maybe Rose, Evans, Davis, Parker, Westbrook, and Jennings). Add in the fact that he’s injury prone and a head case, and that’s really not a guy you want to be spending a kajillion dollars on for the next several years.
There’s a big “what if” factor with Gil though. If he would just TRY on defense, if he would gain just a little maturity, and if he could learn to operate within an offense, he could be worth that giant contract. I’m done playing that game though — I’m convinced that what we’ve seen is what we’ll get.
I'm ok with the moves
Yes, possibly we could have gotten more, but as Mike said we wouldn’t have gotten any real difference makers. I am looking forward to seeing Thornton. I liked him in college and thought he would be a solid player. I’m also hoping that we can re-sign Miller to a reasonable contract. Even in blow it up mode, we need to have at least 12 players signed next year, so I think a 57% 3 point shooter would be useful.
As for the rest of the season, I don’t think we will be that much worse. I’m thinking (hoping?) that Blatche will raise his production to compensate for the loss of Antawn and I think getting rid of Butler was a good thing based on his declining production. I think our front court depth is pretty much devastated though by the loss of Haywood though. I fear that there will be many games where Blatche and McGee both get into foul trouble, and we’ve got nothing to replace them with. Those will be tough.
Obviously you don't think Z will be available as a front-court reserve...
You are right, there will be those days when JVM and Dray get into foul trouble… Singleton will work hard as a front court back-up and I would suspect that after that it’s either Fab or small ball (Thornton, Foye, Howard, Miller + one big). Since winning is not the objective anyway, what the hey?
Cap Room
Is there any reason for cap room to go away – for example if we don’t use it this year do we lose it? Can we sit out a year and go after Durant and Anthony?
I thought Portland had that issue and was forced to sign a player – and they were forced to sign Andre Miller even if he was not a good fit for the team to preserve cap space?
They had impending extensions for LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy that was going to take away their cap room in the future if they didn't use it then
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
In other words
When you extend a draft pick a year early instead of waiting for him to hit restricted free agency, the extension doesn’t kick in until the following year.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
And That's The Reason I'm A Bullets Fan.
Next year’s starting lineup:
PG: Gilbert Arenas
SG: Mike Miller
SF: Al Thornton
PF: DeMarcus Cousins
C: Andray Blatche
What do you think? 41 wins and make the playoffs? Hahahaha. I love this stuff. Rebuilding isn’t as bad as I thought it’d be. We can now go back to being irrational optimists, rather than rational pessimists.
My swag was phenomenal.
That lineup looks painful.
I bet it would give up 120ppg.
by BayAreaBullet on Feb 19, 2010 3:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bring on the draft(s)
It maybe a long road back for us now but with a lot of patience
and some nice rolls in the lottery we might comeback stronger
hopefully with Leonis and a more guided GM.

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