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A Clippers Fan's View On Al Thornton

I'm heading to Ernie Grunfeld's press conference in about an hour.  WashingtonWizards.com will have live video and I'll try to post a link to it if I can.

In the meantime, I traded some e-mails this morning with Steve Perrin of Clips Nation, SB Nation's Clippers blog, about Al Thornton.  His thoughts are below the jump.

Star-divide

Steve Perrin: Here are some stream of consciousness thoughts...  

Thornton has a very solid offensive game.  He has a good first step, and can make a variety of shots.  He is pretty effective at creating his own shot.  His perimeter shot is not great, but not terrible - although he's essentially stopped taking threes this season. 

His trajectory has been very disappointing.  As a rookie, he was officially behind Corey Maggette but ended up playing a lot at both forward positions because of all the injuries, and even started 31 games.  He averaged almost 17 points per 36 minutes, and had games of 33 and 39 in the second half of the season that had us pretty excited around here.  He was always a 'volume' scorer guy - never particularly efficient, but as a rookie, the logic was that he'd get more efficient.

His second season, after Maggette signed with the Warriors, Al was the starter at small forward from day one.  His per 36 scoring went down a few ticks, his true shooting percentage was more or less the same, and his PER dropped a little as well.  A 12.7 PER for a rookie finding his way in the league on an injury-ravaged team is sort of OK - you figure he'll be better with more experience.  A 12.6 PER for a second year player (who happens to be 25) is more of a concern.  The biggest issue was that it was becoming pretty clear that Al was 'just' a scorer.  He's a terrible rebounder, a poor passer, has a pretty low basketball IQ, and consequently is a very poor team defender (though he is a decent on-ball defender).  All of those things needed to get better his second season - none of them did.

When the Clippers added Rasual Butler this summer, Al found himself fighting for his starting job and it clearly affected him.  He started the season in a miserable slump - bounced back when he made it back into the starting lineup alongside Butler while Eric Gordon was hurt - continued to play well for awhile after running to the sixth man role - and then went back into the slump the last month.  Whether he tailed off because he was losing minutes or he lost minutes because he tailed off is a tough one to answer.  But clearly in was in a negative feedback loop.  It probably didn't help that the Clippers knew they had to move him to get into the LeBron Sweepstakes.  Take a look at his game logs and his season splits - you can see the roller coaster he was on.  From mid November to mid December, he played as well as I've ever seen him play.  He was significantly more efficient, taking the ball aggressively to the rim rather than settling for jumpers, played some nice defense and was tearing up the offensive glass.  He scored in double figures in 18 out of 20 games and twice when for 30+.  Then he lost his mojo for some reason, and has 9 double figure games and zero 20+ games in his last 23.

The unfortunate thing is that I think the 'instant offense' bench role could be ideal for Al.  In the early season 'Butler vs. Thornton' debate here, I was pretty adamantly in the Butler camp, not because I felt he was a lot better, but simply because he fit better.  Al's a scorer, and on the Clippers team (the one we thought we had) he would have been the fifth option, behind Kaman, Gordon, Griffin and Baron - having a one dimensional scorer in your starting lineup as the fifth option is a really bad idea.  But bringing him off the bench, as the first or second option for the second team, is a great asset.  There were a few times this season when it looked like Al was embracing that role - but they were way too few.  

John Hollinger would tell you this was all foreseeable - that 'old' rookies (Al was a fifth year senior at FSU) never develop.  I don't think it's that simple.  But Al's tracking the wrong way.  He's been a more efficient scorer this season - but everything else is going the wrong way.  Maybe a change in scenery will help.  Obviously with Butler and Jamison and Arenas gone (wow, that's astounding) he's going to get some shots for you guys.  Frankly, that's when he's been best - when he knows he's being featured in the offense and he plays with confidence, without looking over his shoulder.    

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Does he remind you of anyone?

Nick Young!!!
Please don’t play him. I’d much rather see Dom get those backup SF/PF minutes than Thornton.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk

by hibachi on Feb 18, 2010 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

I was going to say Haywood when I read that last line
Frankly, that’s when he’s been best – when he knows he’s being featured in the offense and he plays with confidence, without looking over his shoulder.

but yeah, I can see a comparison to NY as well.

by Pryme on Feb 18, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

Dom is kinda the opposite of Al. All defense no offense. I would rather have a defensive presence for once! I don’t know about giving Dom the position outright, but at least leave the slot open for a competition

by Dalp on Feb 18, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Took the words right out of my mouth

Nick Young, mr. inconsistent himself. We need one of these young guys to step up to be a probable piece to build around with the draft. Hopefully Blatche keeps it going. Young isnt happening though.

by qthaballa on Feb 18, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

As a fan, I guess I could see a glimmer of hope

in that the Clippers have traditionally been a players’ graveyard. Once some of them leave, they start to perform much differently. That will probably not be the case for Thornton, but ya never know, and he’s not on the books for that long!

by Tbonebullets on Feb 18, 2010 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

Oh good, just what we needed

Another shoot-first, inefficient volume scorer that can’t pass, rebound or play team defense.

Sign me up for Season Tickets…..

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Feb 18, 2010 2:32 PM EST reply actions  

Thornton seems to be a bench scorer type – you know, the kind you bring in when you need some instant offense?

Don’t we have some of those already?

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Feb 18, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I can't wrap around my head why we traded for him.

I’m sure it was Ernie that initiated the Clippers talks because it’s not like CLE had a need for Sebastian Telfaire. Why would we want him?
Whatever, at least we got EMIL PRELDZIC out of it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk

by hibachi on Feb 18, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know.

I just read Emil Preldzic’s draft express write-up and he is interesting. In maybe 2-3 years, he could be a very good rotation player.

by zeke5123 on Feb 18, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

According to draft express his best case is Theodoros Papaloukas

That’s all you need to know.
Papaloukas is arguably one of the best Euroleague basketball players but he hasn’t made it to the NBA. Besides, Preldzic is shooting 30% in the Euroleague, doesn’t sound too promising to me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk

by hibachi on Feb 18, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh

I don’t care about the comps. Just read his skill set. With development, he could be a solid player. If not who cares, but there is potential with no cost. Small asset, but still nothing to sneeze at.

by zeke5123 on Feb 18, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions  

You hope against hope

that Ross and Singleton rub off on NY and Thornton.

Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!

by Sean Fagan on Feb 18, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Neither of them ever rubbed on off Maggette

The more likely scenario is that Thornton will get mad if they steal his minutes.

by d2s4ui1 on Feb 19, 2010 3:55 AM EST up reply actions  

He can for a few minutes

Just hope he’s trying on the glass for those few minutes

by d2s4ui1 on Feb 19, 2010 3:58 AM EST up reply actions  

If nothing else, he should be able to give the starters some rest for a few mins

But never know, will have to see how he actually performs with the current group

by TheRealBigMike on Feb 18, 2010 2:44 PM EST reply actions  

It figures

that of the five players pictured in the photo above, the Wizards got the worst one.

by disgrunted on Feb 18, 2010 3:13 PM EST reply actions  

Took a quick look...

…at players who were similar to Thornton through their first 3 seasons. Looked for players between 6-6 and 6-9 who played at least 5500 minutes with a PER between 12 and 13. Thornton is 6-8, has played 6217 minutes and has a career PER of 12.5.

Here’s the list sorted by PER through their first 3 seasons:

1. Darius Miles
2. Gordan Giricek
3. Joe Johnson
4. Al Thornton
5. Jeff Green
6. Lamond Murray

Bright side: Not a terrible group of players — Johnson is terrific. Down side: all except Giricek were significantly younger when they entered the league. Johnson was just 22 in his 3rd season. Miles was 21. Green and Murray is/was 23.

by TheSecretWeapon on Feb 18, 2010 3:31 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks

for the good analysis. I agree it definitely doesn’t bode well for Thornton when considering his age.

Looking for in-depth basketball analysis? Try http://www.basketballfreeforall.com!

by RedHopeful on Feb 19, 2010 4:50 AM EST up reply actions  

close up shop and return in five years to see if david stern gave us any lottery luck. this all reminds me of the day i washed and waxed my junker just before i headed over to trade it in. somehow, i thought they would give me more for it. but when i heard their offer, i realized it did not matter- lol

by les boulez bomber on Feb 18, 2010 4:35 PM EST reply actions  

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