What's going to happen with Gilbert?

A better way to put this: no player has ever been punished twice for the same crime.

When he officially gets his sentence.

He had a pretty good first half of the season. He was making strides forward. I hope he can keep his competition up in this down time. I hope we do get him back.

It’s almost as if we’re drawing battle lines and never wavering from extremes. We’ve now gone from “Gil isn’t good because he’s inefficient, look career 42% shooter!” to “He doesn’t get enough assists” to “He goes too far out of his way to get assists!”

Truth be told, the Gilbert package is really complex, so neither of us are right. He’s not the same player he was in 2006, but he’s also not the same player he was in November and December of this year. Right before he got suspended, his game was improving. It took him a little longer than expected to shake off the two-year rust, but it was gone. In the last few games, the Wizards completely tanked whenever Arenas was out of the game. He mattered. If some of the other players went more out of their way to fit in around him (cough Caron cough), this would have worked better. Pinning this all on Arenas is the classic “blame the superstar for every single team problem” analysis that’s way too shallow to approach the truth. Truth be told, Arenas caused some problems, but he didn’t cause all of them.

As far as Arenas’ disposition – I can tell you, based on all interactions I’ve had with him this season, that he’s not inherently selfish. He doesn’t go out there only with personal goals on the line (unlike, say, Amare Stoudemire, who openly campaigns to play elsewhere). Where he struggles is in his execution. The whole “I need to get assists” thing was prompted not because he wanted better stats, but rather because he legitimately thought there was some acute correlation between the number of assists he’d accumulate and the number of wins the Wizards had. His frustration with Caron was, again, because he felt Caron was stifling the offense by not catching-and-shooting, not necessarily only because it cost him assists. To Gilbert, the two were the same. (This is actually a pretty common mindset for the young superstar – read “Jordan Rules” to get a better idea).

The knocks on Gilbert remain as follows: he doesn’t play defense (fair) and he can’t lead. To the second point, the real issue is that Arenas is too all over the place to emulate. I think that’s a legitimate complaint, as is his judgment in the wake of the gun thing (not sure quite yet exactly what the best response is). But I also think the effect on the court is much less pronounced that people think. You can build a culture whereby Gilbert’s silliness can be a part of a winning atmosphere. The Wizards came pretty close to getting there in 2007, and that was with a less-than-ideal cast. It can be done

Can it be done here? I’m not sure, that’s the million dollar question.

Which is, they don’t know what they’re doing and are crossing that bridge when they come to it because there’s so much other important stuff to take care of (ownership transfer, trade deadline).

That’s what I’m sure is happening now.

I think they’re just waiting to see what his sentence is and basing their ultimate decision on that. Seems reasonable to me.