This trade isn't as bad as people think...
by JonathanJoseph on Feb 13, 2010 4:18 PM EST
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PrintTo be clear, I'm not excited about the trade and think we should be getting more in return for Haywood, but let's keep the big picture in mind when evaluating this trade.
1) This season is OVER.
2) Haywood is unlikely to re-sign in Washington, so use him or lose him, contractually speaking
3) Caron Butler has been a major part of the problem (anyone who's played basketball knows ball hog = chemistry killer) and EG is looking for addition by subtraction. (As an aside, I won't be surprised to see a 2nd half push, a small one anyway, with Butler gone)
4) Stevenson's contract is awful
So...
EG is trading Butler to being repairing chemistry and giving the Mavs Haywood so that they will take on Stevenson's contract in the process. Who the Mavs are giving us in return is IRRELEVANT. They all have expiring contracts and will not be with the Wizards the next time a Wizards game matters.
After this trade, the only players the Wizards are contractually obligated to for next season are:
Arenas ($17M)
Jamison ($13M)
Blatche ($3.2M)
Nick Young ($2.6M)
Javale McGee ($1.6M)
That's a total of $37M which will be about $15M under the salary cap (and possibly $28M under if Jamison is moved). Needless to say, the Wizards are going to be MAJOR buyers in free agency during the greatest buyers market ever. The cap went down thanks to the economy and only a handful of teams have major cap space and there are loads of good players available.
Bottom line: This trade is meant to repair chemistry and get at least $15M under the salary cap for next year. Who cares at this point what happens the rest of this season? Losing Haywood will give development minutes to Blatche and McGee, which can still be seen as a positive.
And on that note, happy trails Brendan Todd Haywood. A long-time Wizards, an underrated player and I'm sorry to see him go. (OTOH, Don't let the door hit you in your keyster, Caron "I'm an all-star" Butler)
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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Foye is a restricted Free Agent
meaning there is a “Cap hold” of $4,795,095 – until the Wizards either sign him, or renounce his rights.
In addition, the Wizards have a First round draft pick – probably the 4th pick (rookie scale for 2010-11 is $3.1 Million)…
and they have a Second Round pick (if they don’t SELL IT, grrrrrrrr)… Minimum would be $473,604
So, your $15 Million in Cap space is down to around $6.5 Million….. But with only 8 players under contract (assuming they sign Foye for the cap hold of $4.8 Million)…. They need 5 more players, and they only have $6.5 Million under the cap…
So, Next year, unless they unload Jamison’s contract, they will NOT be playing in the Free Agent market…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
There is no way arenas is going to be a wizard next year and hopefully they’ll trade jamison (I would even trade him to the cavs, if it meant freeing up salary cap).
If that happens now the wizard have only 3 player under contract for next year, blatche, mcgee and young. I think it would be a good idea to resign miller and foye. I would also really like to see the wizards go after david lee and travis outlaw.
PG Foye
SG Miller/Young
SF Outlaw
PF Blatche
C Lee/Mcgee
It’s a start, but we would have tons of cap room and a very high draft pick. I just hope we get one of wall, turner, johnson or cousins, a huge drop off after that.
That's not accurate
You say there’s no way that Arenas will be a Wizard next year, I’d say that there’s probably a 50% or better chance he will be.
Who is going to trade for him? You can’t really buy out an $80M contract if you are worried about a few million in luxury tax spending.
Leonsis already said he’s a healer, not a “breaker-upper”, and whether that’s by choice or necessity, I’d say there’s a good chance that Arenas will be back.
by JonathanJoseph on Feb 14, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
No One is going to come to Washington now
No reason for them to come here…. if we trade Antawn and Gilbert (which i expect he will be gone next season), there is no one here
Dont expect the Wizards to recoup from this for the better part of the next decade, especially if Antawn is traded too.
I kinda feel like Gil is going to be here. And I think that if we manage to get lucky and get a Chris Bosh this summer (best-case scenario), we will look back at this trade much more positively.
by Edward TheThird on Feb 15, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
Cap space?
At the end of the day, the Wizards will have the cap space to sign players and other teams will not. It’s that simple, there’s more demand for cap space than there is supply and if you think players are going to go to Europe rather than join the Wizards you are crazy.
There’s a lot more emotional reaction to this than logical reaction.
What players will we sign?
You can’t just say we will have the cap space to sign players, and then not list any.
Rook is correct, unless we move Jamison for expirings, this trade only saves us between $3-5 million in cap space for this summer (it saves us $12 Million in real money, but that is irrelevant in free agency).
by John Park Williams on Feb 13, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Who out of the top Free Agents are we gonna sign??
Amare Stoudemire= either staying in Phoenix or getting traded before the deadline ( cause he said i believe that he plans to exercise his player option if he’s not traded)
Dwayne Wade= Probably staying in Miami
Joe Johnson= Probably staying in Atlanta
Lebron James= Probably staying in Cleveland ( especially if they sign Amare)
Dirk Nowitzki= Staying in Dallas ( Cuban isnt gonna let him walk)
Paul Pierce= Staying in Boston
Tracy McGrady= Might come here but he just said he wants to go to New York and play for the Knicks
Kobe Bryant= Staying in LA
Rudy Gay= Probably leaving Memphis
David Lee= Staying in New York
Chris Bosh= Probably going to a big market and getting a max contract ( and we cant afford to give him one with Gilbert on the roster)
Carlos Boozer= Looks like he’s staying in Utah
So, in recap….we might be able to get Chris Bosh ( doubtful), Rudy Gay ( not a top free agent that would be a franchise player), Amare Stoudemire ( if we were serious about gettting him, we would have traded for him)
NO ONE that is a franchise player is coming to DC………
Right
I think you got this all flipped — there’s a ton of supply (teams with cap space) and not as much demand as expected (because most of those guys will stay with their teams).
My guess is that the only realistic 2010 targets are Gay, Lee, Boozer and MAYBE Johnson or Bosh. Otherwise, it’s a bunch of bargain basement guys, some of which we could use, but all of which don’t need cap space to acquire.
I’d like to see us sit out 2010 and use our cap space to rent players for draft picks, like OKC did.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Wizards won't have any REAL Cap space next year unless they unload Jamison
They will have $44 Million tied up in 9 players (Arenas $17.7 Million; Jamison $13.3 M ; Blatche $3.2 M ; Young $2.6 M ; McGee $1.6 M ; McGuire $1 M ; Quentin Ross $1.1 M ; First round pick ~ $3 M ; Second round pick ~ $500K )
Assuming they renounce Miller, Foye, Howard, Singleton and Drew Gooden…… and that the Salary Cap is $54 Million, the Wizards will have just south of $10 Million to acquire at least 4 players (minimum roster size = 13)….
Not a terrible cap situation, but certainly not enough Cap space to entice an elite player (Bosh, Wade, Stoudemire, etc…) ; AND maybe not even enough for a second tier Free Agent (David Lee, Rudy Gay, etc…)…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
No love for Boozer? Also, Mike, what’s your take on the CBA situation? I know the owners chopping salary as much as has been said is posturing, but is there any merit creeping through the messages?
by Edward TheThird on Feb 15, 2010 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not really sure what's going to happen in 2011
I do know this: the Wizards shouldn’t have splurged in 2010 anyway even under the most optimal conditions. The 2011 CBA situation just exacerbates the need to stay patient and not make moves with 2010 in mind.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Good point. The CBA situation does add a great deal of risk to signing a major player this offseason
by Edward TheThird on Feb 15, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
we will never know what other deals were out there
but i have to believe there were better ones.
by John Park Williams on Feb 13, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Jamison...
Is not going anywhere…. The fans are being dupped & kept in the dark… Join me – if you already have tix for any of the remaining home games – WEAR ALL BLACK….. I’m done trying to figure this crap out…. I do not see my season tix being renewed..
What kind of comment is this?
How are we being “duped”? Do you see any other NBA GMs telegraphing their trade plans in public? Of course not.
by JonathanJoseph on Feb 14, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I see your point
But I am still not convinced. I think we should have at least got someone young or a pick for Haywood. Taking Deshawn’s contract is not enough, no matter how bad it is. But I am starting to see your point. At this point I might take Howard over Butler considering how bad Butler is playing. Gooden is serviceable, but we will really miss Haywood in the coming months. The question is can they move Jamison, and I am starting to think that is really unlikely, unless it’s just for another salary dump. Then, maybe we can think about signing someone (would Joe Johnson come here? I don’t know why but I’ve always really loved his game). The real problem is can we void Gil, which I don’t think is going to happen. I think if the Wizards are smart at this point they will somehow get rid of Jamison for whatever salary dump they can find, then wait and see how the dust clears between the big spenders over the summer. Whoever missed out on their number one targets, will have a lot of cap space and just maybe someone will be willing to give us something for Arenas. Then the summer of 2011 becomes realistic, and maybe with some luck we can catchs somebody in that free agent class who will want to take our money
Jamison
I don’t think we’ll get a great offer for Jamison, but I do think we’ll be able to move him. We’ve been very focused on this site on his age and contract length. Those are issues, sure, but he’s still a 20/10 guy, and there are very few of those in the league. He may be the last chip to fall in the 2010 trading season, but I’d be surprised if a contending team, after seeing everyone else’s moves, didn’t swallow the salary and acquire him.
Depends on what they do with it
If the Wizards use the cap space to sign mediocre players merely to barely make the playoffs in the East next year, this trade sucks. The great players are not coming here. They need to rebuild in the manner Portland and Oklahoma City have done – with young good players. It is exciting to watch guys develop; it is sad to watch experienced players go through the motions or get worse as CB has done. To paraphrase, Go Young, East Team.
cap space = crap players...
That is exactly what is going to happen…. This team will continue to be a non-functioning unit… I bet McGee STILL won’t see playing time… & making Blatche into a Center.. did not work last season & has not worked this season…. OR…
we, I mean Grunfeld b/c he did not take the fans into consideration, BLOW all the $$$ on ONE player who will be expected to single handedly lead the promise land, I mean east conf finals…
Why would you say that?
Other than Arenas, who when healthy sure looked like a legit, max-level, franchise player, who has Grunfeld ever “over spent” on? Almost every contract he’s ever signed has been a great “value”.
(Stevenson is not the same player he was pre-injury and thus cannot be judged as much). Bottom line is that Grunfeld has mostly been very prudent with contracts.
by JonathanJoseph on Feb 14, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
when healthy, arenas clanked two free throws in game 6 of the 2006 playoffs versus Cleveland
Was he the best Wizard of my lifetime? Sure.
Was he worth a max contract in the summer of 2008? No. But, in his defense, had the Wizards not resigned, the average fan would have been calling for his head.
EG signing a Caron Butler to an extension before Butler ever played a game with the Wizards remains the shrewdest move of his tenure in DC.
by John Park Williams on Feb 15, 2010 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
For starters, there were at least 2 NBA GMs who disagreed with you...
and were ready and willing to offer Arenas a max deal (GS and Sac) so EG was hardly off on some drunken spending spree.
As for Butler’s contract, I’d agree AT THE TIME, but Butler’s contract now made him hard to trade, as for whatever reason Butler’s play has regressed BIG TIME.
Arenas’ value has gone down, likely for injury reasons and Butler’s value has gone down, for who knows what reasons and while both moves looked smart at the time, both now have Ernie Grunfeld feeling the ire of fans on this board and everywhere else.
Grunfeld made smart moves. Why they’ve panned out this disasterously I don’t know, but I can tell the difference between a good idea gone bad, and a bad idea.
by JonathanJoseph on Feb 15, 2010 4:35 AM EST up reply actions
Can someone please explain
how the Wizards might rent out their cap space for draft picks? We need players with high contract figures to trade for the bad contracts other teams want to get rid of. How do we do that?
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 14, 2010 2:18 PM EST reply actions
you don't need to match if you are under the cap
The salary-matching issue only kicks in if both teams are over the cap. If, on the other hand, Team W is 10m under the cap and Team X wants to dump a $10m player (for example, to get under the luxury tax), then Team X can trade that player and a first round pick in exchange for nothing but a second round pick (they have to receive back something of “value” in the trade).
to add onto bwood's point
The best example of this scenario was three years ago when the Suns traded Kurt Thomas to Seattle for nothing. The Suns were over the tax, and the Sonics were massively under the tax. So, the Suns traded Kurt Thomas and two 1st round picks to Seattle in exchange for two 2nd round picks.
There was no matching of contracts. The Sonics were under the cap, so they could trade no salaries to Phoenix in exchange for the $8 million dollar contract of Kurt Thomas.
The Nuggets did the same thing when they traded Marcus Camby to the Clippers for only a 2nd round pick.
by John Park Williams on Feb 14, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I think that Thomas deal answers my question below
It looks like Thomas only had one year left on his contract. I’d have no problem taking on a couple of bad contracts like his for only next year if it meant that we could get some draft picks. Certainly I’d prefer that than overpaying for a second tier free agent.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 14, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
well, its only possible if the Wizards are ok with paying the luxury tax next year
But basically, the way it would work is that we would trade our contracts that expire this summer (namely Mike Miller and Mike James) in exchange for players whose contracts expire in 2011 or 2012. League rules on trades are extremely complicated, and I don’t pretend to call myself an expert, but the rule of thumb is that all trades must either 1) end up with both teams under the salary cap, or 2) the incoming salaries cannot be greater than 125% of the outgoing salaries for
any team over the salary cap.
For example, New York would trade Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries (whose contracts expire in 2011) to the Wizards for Mike Miller and Mike James (whose contracts expire at the end of the season). In addition, the Knicks would send the Wizards a few future first round picks. A caveat to trading for draft picks is that a team cannot trade its first round pick in consecutive draft, so, because New York already traded its 2010 pick, the earlier Knick pick we could trade for would be 2012.
So, if you go on NBA Trade Machine or hoophype.com and just find players with massive contracts that expire in 2011, they would theoretically be very likely to trade for Mike Miller/Mike James, and chip in a couple draft picks.
However, as covered masterfully by the moderators here at BulletsForever, the Dallas trade is very good evidence that the Wizards are desperately trying to get under the tax immediately. Naturally, this means they will try to be under the luxury tax next season as well. Any trade involving our expiring contracts for non-expiring contracts will make the Wizards luxury tax payers next year.
To make a long story short, although the expiring contracts would be very valuable trade chips in theory, the reality is that the Wizards have been such a disaster this season that management has probably decided that the financial flexibility offered by the expiring contracts makes them worth holding onto.
by John Park Williams on Feb 14, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great
Thanks to both you and bwoodsxyz.
So is there any chance that we would be able to do a trade this summer where we get a draft pick in exchange for a player with a large expiring contract (expiring in 2011) (and assuming that it wouldn’t put us over the cap)? Or would that expiring contract actually be an asset to the other team?
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 14, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Re: the unbalanced trade plans
You guys both lay it out well, but in my mind, the best time to incorporate this plan is in 2012. We clear Jamison off the books, and suddenly, we can be that team that’ll take all the bad contracts from pre-new CBA teams in exchange for draft picks.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I agree with your headline, but not all of your points
I can’t see this team signing a top-tier FA, and probably not even a second-tier guy. To have the cap space for a max player, there needs to be a trade of Jamison, and if they pull that off it is hard to see how they sign a major FA unless by giving a non-max player a max contract (or a over MLE contract to a less than MLE player), which would be bad.
All the same, assuming that Arenas and Jamison are both still here next year, I can see ways this team could get back to 40 wins, even without hitting a home run in the draft. Arenas got off to a slow start, but was improving the last few weeks before….well, you know what. Jamison is still productive. I’m very interested in seeing Singleton get some regular minutes. I think he could be a good top-5 guy on a team for a couple of years. And anything Blatche/McGee can add over their current productivity would be gravy. Throw in a promising restricted FA and re-signing Miller for a couple of years….they could have something.
In fact, if you are serious about building using high draft picks, you could argue that this team should trade away Jamison and stay away from FAs this summer just to ensure a second soundly losing season and avoid the track the Pacers have gotten on.
to clarify
by “have something” I mean—get around 40 wins and compete for an 8th seed in the east. For whatever that’s worth.
Do we want to get to 40 wins?
Wouldn’t it be better to acquire bad players with bad contracts for draft picks, and combine them with our own high draft picks if we do poorly.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 14, 2010 2:56 PM EST reply actions
no, not anymore
Three weeks ago I was strongly in favor of going ALL-IN and using Javale McGee + Mike James’ expiring contract to acquire one more player to make a run at the #8 seed and knock off the Cavaliers. Then we kept losing. And I gave up that dream.
At this point, I think the more we lose the better. Something good has to happen to us at some point.
by John Park Williams on Feb 14, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, try to get a glut of solid young players
Plus your top draft choice. Move the glut for a star, add areans and your top draft choice to that and you have a core. Then use your cap space in 2012 to grab some decent role players and you have yourself a team.
he means get to 40 wins next season
by John Park Williams on Feb 14, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Right I understand that
But we should be able to rent our cap space out for more than one year if we are patient.
by Palace of Good Play's Golden Toilet on Feb 14, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I admire the effort in trying to put this trade in basketball terms
but really this trade was strictly a business deal. I highly doubt the Wiz will be players in this upcoming FA period due to the looming CBA negotiations.
Right now the owners want to do away with full guaranteed contracts and limit them to three years at the most. So why would our ownership offer a 4-5 year 40-50 million dollar deal when there is a high possibility that a contract like that will be obsolete very soon. Also the CBA negotiations could possibly cause a work stoppage which is even more reason to balance the books.
So there is no setting up for a run at FA’s but merely EG clearing as much of the table as possible for the new ownership group. Which sucks for us fans but we are Wizards fans so in the end it all kind of makes sense.
JonathanJoseph-
You keep telling everyone that they are reacting out of “emotion” than “logic”.
You have to recognize how insulting and patronizing that is.
I’ve been thinking about these trades for weeks. Hours and hours.
Prior to this trade I had thought long and hard about what we should be getting in return for these players.
This trade is a huge letdown.
The players we got back are not part of our future, their expiring contracts are. That’s fine, but to get back no young talent or draft picks is a huge disappointment. Tragic.
I hate overreaction and hyperbole. I have been one of EG’s greatest defenders on this site. But I’ll tell you this looks like one of the worst trades in recent NBA history.
NO talent back that we will retain. For our 2 actual valuable pieces.
I usually give the experts and professionals the benefit of the doubt, but this one boggles the mind.
We’ve all been talking about this moment for a long time and what we’ve witnessed is a terrible disappointment no matter how you spin it. So please stop telling us we’re not understanding the situation
by MR on Feb 15, 2010 11:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I apologize if you are insulted and feel patronized, but...
If this Marcus Camby trade goes down, it will surely confirm that Grunfeld got EXACTLY what the market was offering for those 2 players.
Camby, who would be a fair comparison for Haywood since he’s also an expiring, is getting traded for NOTHING other than expiring contracts. Grunfeld got Dallas to take Stevenson’s bad contract AND a year of Butler’s salary that the Wizards needed to get rid of.
So you can say whatever you want about your mind being boggled, but the market in this economy makes it look very difficult to shed salary, so it appears that Grunfeld did indeed get MARKET VALUE in this trade.
by JonathanJoseph on Feb 16, 2010 3:46 AM EST up reply actions
Camby is 5 years older than Haywood.
Butler is a large asset and a very good talent on a reasonable contract himself.
You might as well compare Jamison and Amare.
by MR on Feb 16, 2010 5:49 AM EST up reply actions
and Marcus Camby was traded for a 2nd round pick straight up only 18 months ago
It was a salary dump by the Nuggets, but it just gives you an idea of how little value Camby has, because no one was willing to make a better offer.
by John Park Williams on Feb 16, 2010 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
I think the comparison is fair
It’s just a trade for this year, and I’m sure if you opened up a debate about which player is better this year on an unbiased forum you’d get people on both sides.
Whether Butler’s contract is reasonable or not is debateable. I would put myself on the ‘not reasonable’ side of the debate. Caron has a barely-above-average PER on a terrible team, and is an average at best defender. Overall, he sounds like an average player right now. On top of that, he’s on the decline if you look at his career trajectory. Average pay in the NBA is $5.2M, or thereabouts. Caron is getting paid twice that next year. Might we have been able to get someone give up something on a gamble that he could return to form? Maybe. But it’s not something that we should have assumed would happen.
JJ, if people are saying they feel patronized and insulted by your language, the problem is you, not them
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
thank you mike and MR
i’ve probably come across as smug on this site a few times, but this takes the cake!
while i disagree with JJ, it’s reasonable to argue this was a fair trade. it’s also reasonable to point out that people are emotional about it. however, stating that it’s illogical to say the trade stinks? that’s absurd. and insulting.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 16, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Has anyone considered?
Not to get completely off track here, but one of the things we haven’t discussed (at least as far as I’ve seen) is Flip’s future. Say we actually manage to gut the team, I don’t see EG going past this year and I don’t know that Flip is the right guy for a rebuild. He’s good with talented, smart players but I don’t know how he’ll do with a bunch of kids. Plus, I doubt Ted and whoever replaces EG is going to feel any kind of loyalty to him. We might be looking at complete and total regime change, top to bottom (which, personally, I’d be OK with), especially if we can move AJ and somehow break ties with Gil.
that's a strong possibility
but frankly, who our coach does not concern me as much. I have no problem with Flip.
by John Park Williams on Feb 17, 2010 6:45 AM EST up reply actions
well
You’re right that this is not the gig Flip signed up for. At the same time, he’s getting paid to make chicken salad out of what he has. I am not in favor of paying him to walk away. If he wants out his agent can make an offer to the new owner or the new GM in terms of mutually agreeing to part ways. He’d be walking away from millions in he hopes of picking up a playoff team.
once we have a new owner in place, and he or she (come on Oprah, the Wiz needs you!) puts a GM/Pres in place… I’d say Cassell has better odds of coaching this team than Flip does.
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