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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin Continues Rampage, New York Wins On Road

Flip Saunders deserves blame for the on-court selfishness, but the GM deserves more

There's been a lot of talk recently about the Wizards' on-court selfishness.  As John Hollinger noted in his midseason disappointments column, the Wizards are currently 29th in the league in assist rate.  Less than half of our baskets are assisted, which is a pretty staggering statistic.  These screenshots from Truth About It also give you a pretty good idea.

The unofficial midway point of the season offers us a good chance to cast blame on the authority figures that are responsible for this mess.  Blaming the players kind of goes without saying.  Blaming the coach, Flip Saunders, is also somewhat appropriate, as Truth About It has done.  

But here's another party to blame: management.  Sure, the coach sets the tone and creates the parameters for what qualities earn playing time. Indeed, Saunders took the wrong approach in initially giving players rope, only to reign them in when they showed they didn't deserve this.  He probably expected things to click as harmoniously as they did for the Pistons when he first took them over, but this mix needed more reeling in at the start after being in the trigger-happy Princeton offense for several years.  Clearly, that's a way Saunders has erred.

However, can you blame him for trying to do things the same way that worked in Detroit?  A little, I guess, but not so much.  No, the real problem is that this roster was not designed with sharing in mind, and that falls on management.

Star-divide

Here are the career usage rates of the top nine minute-getters on the Wizards' roster.  As a reminder, usage rate measures the percentage of his team's possessions a player ends while he's in the game, either via a shot attempt, a turnover or a personal foul.  As a general rule of thumb, if you're ending more than 20% of your team's possessions, you're either an above-average shot creator or you think you are.

Player Career USG%
Gilbert Arenas 27.9
Caron Butler 22.6
Antawn Jamison 24.6
Mike Miller 19.5
Brendan Haywood 14.6
Andray Blatche 20.4
Randy Foye 22
Nick Young 23.3
Earl Boykins 21.8
TOTAL 196.7

 

This is obviously an unscientific exercise -- nobody combines usage rates -- but it illustrates a larger point.  Our roster is made up of guys used to being finishers.  It's hard to ask someone who has spent their entire career finishing plays to suddenly stop finishing plays. 

Let's contrast that total - 196.7 - with the total added career usage rates of the top nine minute-getters of the ten teams at the top of the offensive efficiency rankings.

Team Usage
Toronto 170.1
Utah 177.7
Portland 179.1
Atlanta 180.1
Denver 180.3
Cleveland 187.9
Phoenix 188.7
LA Lakers 190.8
Memphis 191.2
San Antonio 196.7
WASHINGTON 196.7

 

See that? The only team in range of Washington is San Antonio, and that's inflated because of Antonio McDyess, who was a featured player early in his career, before all his injuries, and isn't anymore.  Even Memphis, who supposedly was a team full of too many selfish players, has a combined top-nine usage total lower than the Wizards'.

Again, this is obviously an unscientific exercise, but I can't think of a better way to make this point.  Put yourself in Flip Saunders' shoes.  Say you want to make a point to a veteran or a rookie that's taking too many shots.  Who can you put in that can be an effective player without shooting much, thereby getting your message across most effectively?  There's Haywood, but he starts.  There's Miller, but he's just one guy.  Otherwise, you have to go all the way down to DeShawn Stevenson, Fabricio Oberto and Dominic McGuire to really get to low-usage guys, and no good, but high-usage player will learn anything from those guys because they all stink.  (And yes, I'm including McGuire in here, because he, sadly, has not made any progress on his ball-handing or his shooting).

We, including myself, kind of all assumed Flip could bring his magic winning pedigree to the table and fix some very bad habits from our players.  It's clear, though, that he can't, because the roster hasn't been stocked with enough effective low- to mid-usage players.  All the reserves are high-usage guys themselves.  This means that nobody learns anything when they are benched, because there are no good examples to look to among their teammates. 

That's a roster construction problem, and it falls at Ernie Grunfeld's feet.  He's failed to provide Saunders with enough solid role players to properly allow Saunders to implement his system.

(Cheers to Basketball Reference for all the stats).

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Couldn't agree more

This roster is Ernie’s doing, and he deserves more than a lions share of the blame for it. And, while he will never admit how wrong he was, if this rumored 3-way swap comes to fruition, or any other trade for that matter, and we only end up with cap relief, that will essentially be Ernie’s white flag. If he fails to land any legit young talent and/or draft picks for either of his “big pieces”, then he’s effectively admitting that the last 2-3 offseasons were a waste. For way too long he held on to a HOPE that this team would stay healthy AND improve on its own, while most other teams were actively trying to get better.

by CJHutch on Feb 12, 2010 1:54 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

More analysis is needed

2010 USG% (500+ mins)
Arenas 31.8
Jamison 24.2
Butler 21.9
Young 21.4
Foye 21.1
Blatche 20.9
Boykins 20.7
Miller 13.8
Haywood 13.2
Stevenson 10.1

Let’s break that down by position for a moment

PG
Arenas 31.8
Foye 21.1
Boykins 20.7

SG
Miller 13.8
Young 21.4
Stevenson 10.1

SF
Butler 21.9

PF
Jamison 24.2
Blatche 20.9

C
Haywood 13.2

The biggest problem is that the leader in USG% was the starting point guard by an incredibly large margin. Arenas posted a career high 31.8 USG% this season, despite being considerably less effective than past seasons. He was an offense killer and very detrimental to the team despite his “numbers”.

2009 USG% (1000+ mins)

PG
James 17.8
Crittenton 14.9
Dixon 19.1

SG
McGuire 10.1
Stevenson 14.9
Young 23.1

SF
Butler 25.9

PF
Jamison 25.9
Songaila 17.1

C
Blatche 21.9
McGee 20.7

The return of Arenas has naturally led to a decrease in touches for Butler/Jamison. The problem is these guys are better scorers than Arenas at this point. has seen a decrease in shots. Even more maddening, Arenas seems to have absorbed all of the available USG that came from Haywood’s return to the lineup over Blatche. Mike Miller has a better USG% than McGuire (who wouldn’t?) but it’s also worth noting that the 13.8 he sports this season is EASILY a career low (though the same could be said of his 14.5 in 2009… plus he’s been hurt and didn’t play much with Arenas).

by Real 2K Insider on Feb 12, 2010 6:02 AM EST reply actions  

2009 USG% should read 800+ mins.

It’s definitely not the GM’s fault for bringing in Miller and Foye as these were necessary upgrades. Rubio (or any other draftable PG) wouldn’t have fit on this team and getting some salary relief doesn’t hurt when you’ve got three stars locked into mega deals.

Adding Boykins rather than a low USG% guy like Antonio Daniels was a bit questionable but has worked out since Arenas’ suspension. Though to be frank, it never really made sense to me on a team that already had Arenas/Foye and had buried Mike James.

Roster & rotation changes from 09 to 10
Arenas replaced James (14.0 USG)
Foye replaced Crittenton (5.2 USG)
Boykins replaced Dixon (1.6 USG)
Miller replaced McGuire (3.7 USG)
Haywood replaced McGee (-7.5 USG)
McGee/Oberto replaced Songaila (13.8 and 6.4 USG against 17.1 USG)

by Real 2K Insider on Feb 12, 2010 6:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Using 2010 usages is not the way to go about this

Because usage has diminishing returns. Only one person can end each possession. It doesn’t really tell you

Of course Arenas is going to lower the usage of some of his teammates, but that doesn’t tell you much about the temperament of the players. That’s why I used career usages, to try to indicate that the roster was asking guys who historically have ended a lot of possessions to change their ways. Naturally, that’s been a problem.

Again, it’s hard to blame Arenas here when Flip’s offense puts the onus on its point guards so much. Arenas was already such a high-usage player, so surrounding him with more effective lower-usage players is appropriate.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 12, 2010 8:23 AM EST up reply actions  

The last sentence of the first graph should read

“It doesn’t really tell you about the players’ actually play.”

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 12, 2010 8:24 AM EST up reply actions  

That's just it though - Arenas ain't the same Arenas

How many other players in league history would have missed two straight seasons and continued to chucked it up in his return?

The top 20 USG% courtesy of basketball-reference.com
1. Dwyane Wade-MIA 35.0
2. Carmelo Anthony-DEN 34.0
3. LeBron James-CLE 33.8
4. Kobe Bryant-LAL 33.1
5. Kevin Durant-OKC 32.2
6. Monta Ellis-GSW 29.9
7. Dirk Nowitzki-DAL 28.7
8. Chris Bosh-TOR 28.5

9. Al Harrington-NYK 27.6
10. Brandon Roy-POR 27.5
11. Derrick Rose-CHI 27.3
12. Chris Kaman-LAC 27.2
13. J.R. Smith-DEN 27.1
14. Brandon Jennings-MIL 26.9
15. Stephen Jackson-TOT 26.9
16. Vince Carter-ORL 26.9
17. Rodney Stuckey-DET 26.7
18. Tim Duncan-SAS 26.7
19. Joe Johnson-ATL 26.7

20. Corey Maggette-GSW 26.4

Arenas would rank 6th in USG% right behind the top scorers in the entire league. That was acceptable when he was an elite scorer, but he’s not even close to that anymore. The injuries robbed him of his ability to finish at the rim efficiently. Take that away and he’s just an inefficient 3pt bomber.

Even with Flip’s offense, there is simply no excuse for Arenas jacking up more shots than Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson (much less Dirk Nowitzki or Chris Bosh), when it is obvious that he lost something.

by Real 2K Insider on Feb 12, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I recommend reading this

Link.

It explains that this isn’t all Arenas’ fault re: loss of touches for Butler and Jamison.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 12, 2010 8:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Ernie has a one-week window...

and you have to think he knows it…. How he plays the end game here will determine whether his career as an NBA executive will continue here, elsewhere or nowhere.

Bye the bye, you don’t need those numbers to know that Gilbert was struggling mightily this season … and that his decent-appearing individual statistics were bought at a high price to the team as a whole.

The question I would ask was, how was his USG trending when he basically sabotaged his season with the ridiculous gun stuff? I thought his last game showed that he might have been turning the corner, but of course that is irrelevant now.

And while there are many things EG can be accused of doing poorly over the last couple of years, dumping AD was not really one of them. There was no gas left in AD’s tank (he was out of the league within less than a year). James, for all his faults, could be counted on for some minutes, some points and some assists in what was a lost season. And the draft pick we got from Memphis for Navarro was never going to amount to much, so Javaris was not a bad bargain at the time.

The fact that Javaris turned out to be the cause of Gilbert’s self-destructive antics could never have been predicted… one could even assume that if it hadn’t been Javaris it would have been something or someone else….

There is a novel or a movie in this (better than Jackie Moon even).

by khrabb on Feb 12, 2010 7:09 AM EST reply actions  

Arenas' USG% before the suspension

Arenas averaged 22 FGA over his last 10 games, compared to his season average of 19.

Things were not getting better – they were getting worse.

He did average more assists (7.8), and three of his four double digit assist games came in his season’s last 10 games. However, it would seem that was simply a result of him having the ball in his hands even more than usual.

(USG% over that time would take a while to manually calculate… it’s basically FG+FT+TO against the team’s FG+FT+TO)

by Real 2K Insider on Feb 12, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I've been an unabashed Ernie fan

For many years. He’s kinda like a mini-Bill Polian; he’s never failed to build winners at any stop, including his early years with the Wiz.

I’ve endorsed most of his moves, including re-signing Arenas and Jamison. I was fully in the “what if they played together, with normal injuries” camp.

Now, it’s clear that I was wrong. I hope Ernie sees the same thing. The only legitimate option is to blow up and go back to the beginning. If Ernie tries to hang on to anyone too tightly, it’s a mistake. I’d trade Jamison for nothing but cap space, if necessary, for example.

A smart GM knows when it’s time to drop the bomb on his team. I think Ernie’s smart; I hope he is.

by YellaFella on Feb 12, 2010 9:54 AM EST reply actions  

While I think Ernie knows this team has run it’s course, it’ important to get more than cap room for Jamison. Caproom isn’t nearly as useful as future assets (in other words, J.J. Hickson is far preferable to say, Larry Hughes’ 13 million expiring). There is no rush to trade Jamison because he is still under contract for awhile, and will likely have similar value next season (though certainly preferable, since he will likely decline a bit and could possibly get hurt).

by Real 2K Insider on Feb 12, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

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