When "Close" Is Really Far Away

by bwoodsxyz on Feb 10, 2010 12:00 PM EST in Statistical analysis

There has developed a notion around this Wizards team that their season has perhaps been derailed as much by an inability to "win close games" as by suspension, injury, or just generally not being very good. With last night's loss, the Wizards have now lost 9 games decided by three points or less. Evaluating the team as one that just needs a few more points in a few more games is, however, off base.

The Wizards' "pythagorean record," or expected record based on points scored and points allowed, is 18-32, as opposed to the team's real record of 17-33. So, they profile only one win better than they sit in the standings.

Notably, along with those 9 losses in close games, they have 4 wins in close games (again, going with games decided by 3 points or less as "close"). That 4-9 record amounts to a .307%, which worse, but only slightly worse, than the team's overall .340%. Indeed, just winning their next close game would bring their close-game record roughly back in line with their overall record.

They are 6-12 in games decided by 5 points or less, so that too is representative of their overall performance. Which, of course, means that in games that aren't within 5 points, their record is 11-21, hardly the hallmark of a good team.

Finally, even if you flip their won-lost mark in close games, and make the team, say, a remarkable 12-6 in the 5-point games, they would STILL have a record of 23-27, a full game behind Miami for the 8th spot in the East.

Perhaps the most charitable case that can be made for the team is playing the suspension/injury card. Projecting a healthy Mike Miller playing at the level he has managed since coming back, a healthy Antawn Jamison for the early-season stretch he missed, and imagining that Gilbert Arenas hadn't been lost to suspension, Win Shares implies we could expect about 5 more wins to date--good enough to be in the hunt for the 8th seed, but still well short of expectations. (This does, however, assume Arenas's season performance is just spread out, which misses that his play had picked up considerably since the middle of December. Adding THAT Arenas AND circa 05-06 Caron Butler.....sigh.)

Now, it may be that the idea of being "close" is just what the players and coaches have to use to keep some semblance of motivation and spirit in such a dismal season, and that's probably something to be applauded, not criticized. Let's just hope the front office hasn't bought into the idea.

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yup, bad teams find ways to lose.

So the poor record in close games is to be expected and should not encourage anyone into thinking about what ifs.
Or as Bill Parcells says, “You are what your record says you are” and ours says we’re a bad team.

by hotplate on Feb 10, 2010 1:11 PM EST reply actions

On a related note

I have been “close” to sleeping with several supermodels, making billions in the stock market, and posting several intelligent comments on this blog.

Your last paragraph on right on. But that’s the sort of comment a coach should make to his players in the locker room to fight against the players giving up, not a comment players, coaches or GMs should be making to the media.

by disgrunted on Feb 10, 2010 1:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

But the players read the papers/blogs/etc

So the message should be similar.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 10, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

Players read the blogs??

Has any player ever told you that he has read your blog? I find that very interesting. If I were a player, I would never read a blog that might mention me. Players should be looking to their coaches for guidance, not randoms like us.

by disgrunted on Feb 10, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Players don't work 24/7

They have time to read, and like any person, they probably look for stuff about themselves. Haven’t confirmed that any player reads, but I know Flip has read (unless it was fed to him).

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 10, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Uh, close only counts in horsehoes...

This is a losing team, and if management (whoever they may be at this point) stands pat then they are indeed a ship of fools.

I think the changes are coming and who we see in Wizzie uni’s today will not be the same a week from today.

by khrabb on Feb 10, 2010 1:35 PM EST reply actions

this is the flawed mentality

that has gotten us here in the first place. Ernie has clung to that Bulls series for way too long. The reality is, this team was NEVER a legit title contender, which is why they NEVER contended for a title. This shoulda-woulda-coulda crap is for losers.

by CJHutch on Feb 10, 2010 5:16 PM EST reply actions

Hey man they did finish with the 13th best record in the league once

Thats top 50% of the league buddy. Seriously though I really hope they get it in the FO. I am kinda hoping that the decision to keep on trying with this core was an Abe thing and now EG will return to his trading ways.

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 10, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions