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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

I understand the importance of teaching nonviolence to kids in today's world. Guns and violence are serious problems, not joking matters -- a lesson that's been brought home to me over the past few weeks. I thought about this when I pleaded guilty as charged in court and when I accepted my NBA suspension without challenge.

That message of nonviolence will be front and center as I try to rebuild my relationship with young people in the D.C. area. I know that won't happen overnight, and that it will happen only if I show through my actions that I am truly sorry and have learned from my mistakes. If I do that, then hopefully youngsters will learn from the serious mistakes I made with guns and not make any of their own.

about 2 years ago Tiny disgrunted 24 comments 0 recs  | 

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I was just about to post that

What a difference having a Lawyer and a Quasi-Agent makes huh?

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 1, 2010 6:26 PM EST reply actions  

It Seems

He is finally saying the right thing. It took long enough though. I have to wonder if he is wanting to play for the Wiz again. I’d like to still have him on our team. I just hope something can be done to make this a wininng team.

by Danyon Rome on Feb 1, 2010 6:35 PM EST reply actions  

Uhhhh...
That message of nonviolence will be front and center as I try to rebuild my relationship with young people in the D.C. area.

Little by little, I’m gaining more hope that he will still play here next year. From what Mike Jones has said, Gil’s dad has said, and now this op-ed. It’s no longer a foregone conclusion that he’s no longer a Wizard.

My swag was phenomenal.

by se7en on Feb 1, 2010 11:04 PM EST reply actions  

regardless of Gungate

Whats the point of keeping him here if his contract hinders our rebuilding efforts? Shouldn’t we try and trade him for our sakes and his?

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 1, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not a GM, but I don’t see the benefit in getting rid of our best player for 40 cents on the dollar. That’s the only way we can get rid of him – if it greatly benefits the other team. Nobody wants that contract or the gungate baggage. I don’t see how any scenario in giving away Arenas is beneficial to us. He’s still one of the better guards in the league.

Our entire roster is bloated. If we’re going to get rid of people, I saw we get rid of people who aren’t producing as they should – like Butler, Young, James, et cetera. Why get rid of our best player? For cap space? For who?

My swag was phenomenal.

by se7en on Feb 1, 2010 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

No one's taking him this summer

unless its a terrible deal for the Wizards. Someone might give us something close to value next summer. Arenas is still young enough (and might even be healthy enough) to rebuild around.

"I say he does have to shoot me now! So shoot me now!" --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Feb 3, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess it depends on what you are hoping for over the next 3-4 years

I mean we can keep the team as is and probably never be better than 3rd or 4th in the East because we can’t defend and will be valuable players every year with only mid round draft picks to replace them. We could try and ship off certain guys and rebuild on the fly around Arenas. That would be really tough to do and remain competitive as Arenas needs guys with certain skills sets(a 2 who can guard both PG’s and SG’s), guys who can score without the ball, etc. Not saying it can’t be done but it’s not an easy proposition. So if we do rebuild around Arenas it is most likely we take a step back for a year or 2. Does Arenas want to be on a bad team for 2 years? What would we gain from that other than tickets sold? And thats assuming he stays healthy and productive(I think he will but it’s certainly not a given). For me I want to be a championship contending team sometime in the next 4 years. I think keeping Gilbert and trying to build around him would end up more like Milwaukee’s endless rebuilding period under Michael Redd.

Personally I think we need to start from scratch. Around here we like to think that the Wiz were a good team during the Big 3 years but the fact is we really weren’t all that great. 3 of the 4 times we made the playoffs we wouldn’t have qualified if we were in the West(not taking into account the easier schedule we played against in the East). The one time we did we would have been tied for 8 so I’m not even sure if we would have made it. Here is our total league wide finishes during those 4 years in order 13th, 13th, 15th, 14th. Thats not all that impressive. Personally I want to get to where we are a top 10 team atleast. Since the team sucked even with Gilbert and we can’t afford to keep our own players I think starting from scratch and trying to emulate OKC is the way to go.

There has been a story put out there that this summer Gilbert might look good to a team that doesn’t get Lebron. I’m hoping we can get some decent cap relief for him. It has been rumored that NYK could want Gilbert if they get stuck with Curry and Jeffries and don’t get Lebron. I don’t know if there is any validity to it but if NYK would really swap Jeffries and Curry’s expiring contracts for Gilbert I would do that in a sec. We could then wait till the deadline and have atleast 24mil in expirings(curry, jeffries, DS) to acquire more assets. Basically any trade for relief even if we don’t get a decent player back would help us. We could stockpile the assets we get from trading everyone but McGee, AB, and NY with any asset we get for any expirings we get next year and have a decent team of young players to play with our first rounder this summer and likely lottery pick the year after that. Plus once we get under the cap we can really start building the team.
  The Beauty is being under the cap really helps you even if your not signing people the first couple years. Look at OKC. They were one of the only teams significantly under the cap the last couple years. This allowed them to pull off some really lopsided trades. Because they were so far under the cap a couple years ago they were able to trade a second rounder for Kurt Thomas and 2 first round draft picks from the Suns. This year they got handed Eric Maynor for helping the Jazz reduce their luxury tax hit. I think that also played a hand in them getting Sefelosha for a 2nd. Now they have an up and coming young team and still have salary cap room to grab a final piece to put them over the edge.

Maybe you feel Arenas is Kobe, Dwight Howard, Lebron, Wade, Duncan type player but I think he’s a clear step below those guys even assuming he comes back as good as he was. He was the worst defender in the league this year according to ESPN. He’s really good but not quite elite. So I say if we are gonna rebuild let’s really rebuild and do it right. I’m tired of having a ceiling that is barely in the top half of the league. I doubt we can rebuild around Arenas and be a top 10 team in the next 2-3 years. Why not let him go if we can get some significant cap relief and let him be on a winning team. Obviously we should keep him I guess if the only offer are players with bad(relative to value and length) contracts. I think there might be an offer or two that gives us some significant cap relief.
 
Also the dynamic of the league is changing. The cap is shrinking and there is talk of it being really reduced in the upcoming CBA. Gilbert’s contract will only get worse and could potentially mean 2-3 years from now our owner has to go like 30 mil over the cap just to field a winning team if Gilbert is on it. As the league changes we might be able to take advantage of it if we are way under the cap.

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 2, 2010 1:28 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

The only problem in emulating OKC is that you have to hope to land a Durant and not an Adam Morrison. Some of that is skill, but much of it is luck as well.

by MR on Feb 2, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed but we don't have a Durant type player as is

and doing what they did also gives us the option in the future(not this summer) to go out and get a guy like that if they become available. Right now we have a guy who is not elite but is choking our salary cap.

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 2, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not saying that keeping the Arenas contract is a good bet

I’m just saying (I’ve said this a lot sorry if people are tired of hearing it) that to plan on emulating OKC is a fantasy. That’s like saying you want to emulate the ’90’s Bulls. Or you want to build a team the way Cleveland is or the way San Antonio did. Unless you get that key Michael Jordan/Durant/Duncan player you are out of luck.

Sure there is more to it than just drafting the superstar player. You still need to build around them well. But that superstar only comes around once in about every 3-5 years. You have to be the one that gets him. They rarely switch teams, and they never switch teams and end up in places like DC. They end up in Boston, LA, New York.

by MR on Feb 2, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I totally understand that

but to be like “we’ll never get a guy like that so lets struggle to be a .500 team things” is getting kind of old for me. I doubt having Gilbert on the team is gonna help us draft that guy so we might as well get flexible and aquire a good team so that DC becomes an attractive place to play from a talent standpoint. I’d rather be flexible 2 years from now than not have a chance if one of those guys do come up. I don’t think rebuilding like OKC is a fantasy but it surely does require a certain amount of luck and skill to capitalize on that luck. I just think we can become an elite team faster if we can get rid of most of Gil’s salary rather than try to build around him. Plus I’m sure he would rather go somewhere he can win some time soon and I won’t begrudge him that.

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 2, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't disagree with the sentiment

I think there is just way too much “so we can be contending in 3-4 years” sentiment around here. Even in the OKC scenario, which is close to what can be considered the perfect storm of “best-case” they still aren’t going to be actually contending for a while.

I just think it’s a longer road than people are giving credit for.

by MR on Feb 2, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh agreed

I’m not trying to make it out to be a sure thing. It’s just the smarter(higher percentage thing). Either way it is gonna take a couple years. The thing is the wreckage of this season is the result of Abe Pollin taking a super long shot that this team could contend this season. We went into the season with 3 options. 1)Be a contending team that the owner is willing to go WAY over the salary cap to keep together. 2)Be a decent team that gets worse over time as we can’t resign key guys like Miller, Haywood, CB over the next 2 years. 3)Struggle and blow the team up. The first option is obviously not happening and no one wants the second. That leaves rebuilding so I would rather rebuild smart. Again that doesn’t guarantee success but it is more likely than us being gifted another superstar when we have crappy trade asset and one of the worst cap situations in the league by far. We can trade our guys for decent young prospects and role players but we don’t have any ammo to get a Star or a young stud. So if we are gonna have to rebuild might as well do it right. Also it is almost a certainty that the salary cap will continue to go down the next several years. Gil is only gonna make more and more money over the 4 seasons following this we in all probability we will have a situation where in years 2-4 of his remaining contract Arenas would be counting for atleast 40% of our cap if not more. I’m not trying to say it isn’t a long road I just feel keeping Gilbert will make the long road longer. It seems best for him and us to try and flip him for some cap relief. Guys with such bloated contracts are really only good for a contending team and we don’t have the pieces for that and as you and I both agree it will take years for that to happen. I guess we will have to see what our options are this summer.

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 2, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I would love

if someone smarter (and with more time) than me got together a list of how each team that is at the top or on the way up built itself. I mean blowing things up isn’t the only route. I don’t really even know the last sucessful “blow up” option team.

Atlanta was a mix of trades/FAs, Boston obviously trades, LA a mix…

by MR on Feb 2, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

bad examples

Atlanta is fueled by Josh Smith, Horford and Joe Johnson. Two of those guys were draft picks and one was a FA who they might or might not lose this summer. They are better because they stockpiled young players allowing them to be able to get a guy like Johnson(they had to trade draft picks for him). Boston blew it up, developed a stud(Jefferson) who they could trade for KG and a high draft pick they could swing for Ray Allen and still have some young up and comers(Rondo and Perkins) to pair with a stud in Pierce. First they had to endure some bad years and dump Walkers contract. Boston is the end result of a blow it up situation. LA blew it up and built around the best player in the game then got lucky to get Pau Gasol and Ariza. If we had a bunch of secondary trade assets I would agree with you. Hey if we can get super lucky and get another Star or 2 that meshes well with Arenas then sure but how likely is that? Will we have an owner willing to 30 mil over the Cap like Boston and LA? If we want to emulate Boston we need to blow it up first so we can acquire talent like an Al Jefferson before we can make those trades. Also those teams you mention had a higher salary cap to work with than we will and we have no idea if our Owner is willing to shell out ridiculous sums to make those trades happen. Thats not even taking into account the possibility(slim but very possible) that there is a hard cap we can’t go over in 2 seasons. Just not sure what keeping Gilbert through a long rebuilding process(which is unavoidable barring a gift from heaven type trade) really does for this team other than possibly making our draft picks slightly crappier. Of course we might not have a choice.

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 2, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I wasn't arguing a point

I’m trying to get to the core of how each team has made its success.

by MR on Feb 2, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's how they did it

LA: Drafted Kobe, signed Shaq, had some lean years, drafted prospects, dealt with Kobe’s bitching, traded those prospects for Gasol. PROGNOSIS: No blowup, but needed the draft to succeed.

Boston: Had a team like the Wizards (middling, no prospects for improving), blew it up, drafted prospects, developed prospects, traded prospects for KG and Allen. PROGNOSIS: Yes blowup, though they had Pierce, traded prospects instead of keeping them.

Orlando: Sucked for a while, blew it up (T-Mac trade), drafted Howard, made a couple risky FA plays (Lewis, Hedo, etc.), traded for Carter. PROGNOSIS: Always sucked, lucked into Howard.

Atlanta: Were good way back when (2000), drafted prospects, traded those prospects for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Glenn Robinson, failed, blew it up again (Sheed trade), drafted prospects, made risky FA signing (Joe Johnson), drafted more prospects, eventually got good. PROGNOSIS: Multiple blowups.

Denver: Always sucked, lucked a bit into Melo, got stuck in neutral with him because of risky FA signings (K-Mart, Nene, Iverson trade), caught lightning in a bottle with Billups, made smart picks, had brilliant GMing. PROGNOSIS: Got lucky, no real blowup.

Cleveland: Blew it up, drafted LeBron, shot the load with free agents, didn’t matter because LeBron is LeBron. PROGNOSIS: Blowup.

Then, below them, you have teams that did blow it up (Portland, OKC, Memphis), teams that were closer to the Denver route (Dallas), teams that built through free agency and one great draft pick (Utah, Phoenix) teams that got lucky and completely capitalized on that luck (San Antonio) and Houston, who defies characterization.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 2, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

What about

teams that have been failing long term?

Minn, Milwaulkee, GSW etc.

Any lessons to be learned there?

by MR on Feb 2, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I would have to guess getting stuck with exorbitant long term contracts

Michael Redd, Sczerbiak, Jamison, Dunleavy, Plus other boneheaded GM moves.

by BayAreaBullet on Feb 2, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Gilbert Arenas writes an op-ed in the Washington Post

can we please stop using the phrase “gilbert writes/wrote” when referring to this piece?? I think Brittney Spears had more input writing her album than Gilbert did with this letter.

by 20dawkins20 on Feb 2, 2010 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

It has his name on the byline

So no matter who officially wrote it, it’s still technically right.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 2, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Well if that op-ed was ghost written, it was done well. The writing is terrible.

by MR on Feb 2, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

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