Keys To The Palace: Near Triple Double? You Can Stay As Long As You Want
by Jake Whitacre on Nov 8, 2010 9:00 AM EST
in Keys To The Palace
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PrintBased on the response to last week's Keys To The Palace, not everyone was thrilled with all the changes, so we're making a few more tweaks this week. Changes in PER will no longer be the deciding factor in whether or not someone gets to stay or leave the palace. Subjectivity will once again reign supreme, but we'll still be keeping track of fluctuations in PER from week to week, because it still does provide a general framework for how a player is performing on the offensive end from week to week.
Hopefully this creates a happier balance moving forward, if not, please voice your concerns. No evaluation method is perfect, but we'd like to create something worth creating some good discussion about individual players' performances from week to week. All input is appreciated.
After the jump, we'll take a look back at a week that included our first great performance of the season, the first clutch shot, the team's first back-to-back and of course, the first Dougie of the new season.
Keys to the Palace
| Player | Week 2 PER | Week 1 PER | Difference | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andray Blatche | 13.8 | 7.6 | 6.2 | He struggled through most of the game on Tuesday against Philadelphia, but getting the opportunity to give the Wizards the win in overtime gave him a much need confidence boost for the rest of the week. He's still not completely back to form, but his strong start against the Knicks, and his 15 rebound performance in the second game of a back-to-back are very good signs. |
| Al Thornton | 17.7 | 21.9 | -4.2 | Thornton continues deliver solid performance after solid performance. At this point in his career, his weaknesses (such as passing) aren't going to get much better, but he is continuing to improve in the areas where he can make positive contributions. He's grabbed at least six rebounds in each game this season and has been super efficient at the rim, with eFG% of 82.3 percent. The cynic in me thinks that percentage will fall back to earth soon, but as long as that stays up, he'll continue to have a spot in the palace. |
| John Wall | 16.1 | 19.8 | -3.7 | Just remember, Peyton Manning led the NFL in turnovers his rookie season and he didn't turn out so bad. |
| Gilbert Arenas | 18.2 | 0 | 18.2 | Lots of encouraging signs in Arenas' first two games back from injury. He's been incredibly efficient beyond the arc, hitting 7 of his 14 attempts. However, things get worse inside the three point line. Of the other 13 shots he's attempted, only three came within 10 feet of the rim. Hopefully, as he gets back into shape, he'll get better at taking shots near the rim, or else he will become a very expensive Boobie Gibson. |
| Cartier Martin | 18.2 | 23.1 | -4.9 | Believe it or not, Martin has cracked the ten minute mark since his impressive performance against Orlando in the season opener, and didn't even get off the bench against Cleveland. He's still playing effectively with the minutes he's being given, but we shouldn't let one strong outing in a blowout and a nice shot to force OT against Philadelphia build him up into a player he isn't. That said, any shot that leads to extra basketball is worth a key in my book. |
Palace Guest Passes
| Player | Week 2 PER | Week 1 PER | Difference | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaVale McGee | 14.3 | 14.7 | -0.4 | For the first time this season, McGee played more than 25 minutes and responded with his best performance of the season and his first double-double. Hopefully, he can continue to build on this -- because let's face it -- there's no one this roster who should be playing more than 15 minutes at center other than McGee. |
| Kirk Hinrich | 11.6 | 10.4 | 1.2 | For someone that's supposed to be a stabilizing force on the court, Hinrich had a very up and down week. His 8 point, 9 assist performance fell under the radar because of John Wall's ridiculous stats, and he played well against Cleveland, knocking down shots from long range efficiently ans posting a plus/minus of +12. However, he just didn't have anything going for him against the Knicks. We shouldn't expect games like we saw on Saturday against Cleveland, but when he plays like he did against the Knicks, blowouts won't be far behind. |
Locked Out
| Player | Week 2 PER | Week 1 PER | Difference | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilton Armstrong | 3.7 | -9.8 | 13.5 | Armstrong played better than you probably think he did this week, but not quite as well as Flip Saunders probably thinks he did. He had the best plus/minus of all Wizards in the Knicks game and did some positive things against Philadelphia, but he really had no business playing the 15 minutes he did against Cleveland. |
| Nick Young | 12.5 | 2.7 | 9.8 | Young's PER spiked this week, based on his blazing performance against the Sixers, but his overall week wasn't great. He only attempted one shot within 15 feet of the rim, had no assists and only snagged three rebounds all week. Worse yet, he racked up a plus/minus of -30 in only 21 minutes of action against New York and Cleveland. |
| Lester Hudson | -18.6 | -24.5 | 5.9 | File under "Nowhere to go but up." Hudson played two minutes, scored no points, recorded no assists and did not grab a rebound. This was good enough to raise his PER by nearly six full points. |
| Yi Jianlian | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | Jianlian played 48 minutes and only grabbed 6 rebounds this week. That's not going to cut it, especially when he's not shooting well, only making 6 of his 18 field goal attempts. The good news is that he was able to get to the line a few times this week, but he needs to create a lot more of those opportunities if he wants a key. |
| Trevor Booker | 11.3 | 21 | -9.7 | Booker played exactly 120 seconds this week and somehow managed to pull in a plus/minus of -12. Things can only go up from here, I suppose. |
Note: Josh Howard, Hamady Ndiaye and Kevin Seraphin are not listed since none of them received playing time this week.
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Flip's JaVale hypocrisy really rankles me
Craig Stouffer’s Examiner piece quoted Flip about Wall’s defense: “His last two games, his defense has been poor, and because of that, it’s carried over.”
But does Flip sit Wall? No. Nor should he- Wall’s the future, and needs playing time. But JaVale’s part of that future too, and needs PT just as much as Wall. Why do JaVale’s mistakes get him benched — and all his positives not get him increased PT — but Wall is allowed to play through his? It makes no sense.
And this is a rebuilding team, and rebuilding season (or two): Play Wall, McGee, Booker, Seraphin, etc. They all need minutes, so we can figure out who can play and who can’t.
by YellaFella on Nov 8, 2010 10:45 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
all mistakes aren't the same
nor are all players the same.
wall is being asked to do a heck of a lot more than mcgee right now, and wall is capable of learning from his mistakes on the fly. mcgee, by committing the same simple mistakes over and over again, begs flip to take him out of the game.
if flip just lets guys do whatever they want out there, with no regard to where they are supposed to be, then he’s not coaching.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 8, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And
There’s also the fact that Wall is our best player, and we’re noticeably worse when he’s not in the game.
Javale on the other hand is doing more harm than good on the court with his horrible defense. I’m trying to remind myself to be patient, but it’s hard when we’re losing like this.
yeah, i was hoping we'd be further along too
there will be a lot of growing pains so patience is definitely required.
we’ll definitely improve. the question is by how much.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 8, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
He is not, in fact, doing more harm than good
And he’s definitely not doing more harm than Armstrong or Yi.
You couldn't be more wrong.
If you think JaVale isn’t learning, you’re just not paying attention. He stays home in the paint a lot more, jumps for blocks a lot less, and plays position defense more. Does he still have issues? Sure. But to say he hasn’t progressed is simply not true.
by YellaFella on Nov 8, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
"you couldn't be more wrong"
u lead like that? convo over.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 8, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
I said he was wrong. He's allowed to say I'm wrong.
So are you. How is that somehow a personal attack?
DWF said McGee doesn't learn from his mistakes.
That’s objectively not true. Unless McGee has never improved, at all, on defense, it’s completely wrong. No one who knows anything about basketball could dispute that.
Now, we can disagree about his level of improvement, or his rate of improvement, or his ceiling or floor as a player. But it’s simply wrong to say he hasn’t gotten any better on defense.
"No one who knows anything about basketball could dispute that."
hmmm, when you put it that way, i understand now. i see your point. why on earth does flip saunders keep benching mcgee? i’m suddenly irate about this. flip must not know anything about basketball either. he should be fired immediately.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 8, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't say it was a personal attack. Just said that there's meaning in how an thought is expressed, alongside the thought itself.
But I also can’t say that I’d appreciate being told I’m wrong and if I don’t think I’m wrong then I’m simply not paying attention.
OhAnd DarrellWalkerFan also didn’t say that McGee has shown no progress.
Communication is an artform, that’s all…
it's poignant that jones-y
is the one chiming in on this as we’ve had plenty of disagreements on this site (mostly about a single issue that comes up repeatedly).
(i appreciate you trying to spell it out, jones-y, hopefully your thoughts merit some consideration.)
by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 8, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
FYI, the Chinese convention uses a reversed name order. “Yi” is his family/last name, “Jianlian” is his given/first name. To be consistent, you should refer to him as “Yi,” since you’re referring to everyone else as “Thornton,” “Arenas,” “McGee,” “Martin,” etc.
right
we don’t call Yao Ming “Ming”, we call him “Yao”. Yi is just much easier to type and say.
by Marine4Life51 on Nov 8, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
One of my Wizards onomastic pet peeves, along with how to spell “Hinrich” and the pronunciation of “Blatche,” which after four years of national coverage, TNT and ESPN still get wrong consistently. I mean, how to pronounce “Blatche” has got to be in the media guides, right? Of course, I doubt Mike Fratello reads those….
From the District of Columbia, home of the hyperbolic paraboloid transitional floating zone defense.
McGee's defense...
has improved and it’s better this year than Brook Lopez, Varejao and Hilton Armstrong to name a few. See advanced defensive rating at basketball-reference.com
I thought the keys in the write-up were right on point. I suggest that you add Flip to the grading system, and include criteria for both w-l, player development and team chemistry on O and D.
This is not true
it’s better this year than Brook Lopez, Varejao and Hilton Armstrong to name a few.
Varejao was a DPOY candidate last year. Come on.
He is technically correct
JaVale’s DRtg is 105. Varejao is 107, Lopez is 107 and Armstrong is 106. I don’t expect that to hold up, but for the moment, Izman is correct.
by Jake Whitacre on Nov 8, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
No he's not.
He’s right about the statistics, but wrong about Javale being a better defender.
Oh, and check out some of the DWinshares for those guys if you trust stats so much.
by MR on Nov 8, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
Right
The single stat is right, but other measures disagree. Armstrong’s killing McGee in net +/- per 48.
Win shares per 48 minutes
McGee is third highest on the team. Armstrong is negative and second from the bottom. see basketball-reference.com w/s 48.
Yep
We can all find stats that say certain things. That’s why over-reliance on stats is a bad idea.
And to build an argument around DRtg of 105 vs.106 is just downright silly.
by MR on Nov 8, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Do you actually watch basketball?
You’re conveying the impression that you’re poring over stat sheets and have no idea how an actual NBA game works, or how the stats are derived from it.
If you understand basketball, and have watched them both play I can’t imagine how you could draw the conclusion that Javale is a better defender than Varejao. It’s preposterous. Does anyone on this board (most of whom love Javale and hate Varejao) agree with this conclusion based on what you’ve seen with your eyes? (I’m hoping everyone here understands that defense consists of more than just blocked shots.)
If DRtg supports the conclusion that Javale is a good defender, then you should stop looking at DRtg. For example, one huge flaw with DRtg is that it is dependent more upon who you play with, than how you play. Somehow Ray Allen improved from a DRtg of 112 to a career to a career low of 103 at age 32. Amazing improvement, or better teammates? On top of that, you’re dealing with a really small sample size here.
Long response, but...
you didn’t read what I said. You missed the "this year’ part. Varejao has played 3 games, and the Cavs allowed more than 106 points per contest in those games. Assuming that you watch more basketball than I, which game did he play well defensively?
The bottom line is that Javale is improving, just not on your timeline. What is Javale to do? Listen to you?
Should he accept his role...........
as the VILLAIN?!?!?
"Because once someone knows the whole story, I don’t see how they can disagree with my position."
This should appear at the top of every blog on the internet.
-cuppettcj & MR
by returnofswagger on Nov 8, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that Javale is improving
lzman – we’re disagreeing all over the place, but I appreciate you taking a rational approach. I hope I’m not coming off too critical — my last comment reads much more condescending than I intended. My bad.
Anyway, all Javale can do is keep working hard at it. If he asked me, I’d tell him to study the defensive schemes and mentally rehearse until rotations and positioning were second nature. Write it all down, ask teammates to help you, and practice, practice, practice. I know it takes time — I’m just saying he’s a lousy defender right now.
The thing about “this year” is that the numbers are based on a very small sample size. I’m much more inclined to believe Varejao is continuing to play good defense, but circumstances and his teammates are worse than they were last year. He’ll probably regress toward his career mean, but if his teammates are worse defensively his DRtg will still be worse. Javale, meanwhile, I have seen play terrible defense so far this year. If Varejao is actually suddenly and mysteriously lousy at defense this year, I’ll retract my statement and credit you with an amazing prediction based on such limited data. I just think the odds of that are practically zero.
I agree that McGee's defense has improved
For example, I love, love, love that he sometimes is catching shots when he can instead of just blocking them. Many thanks to the coach who pressed him to do that — whether a Wizards coach or on the national team.
Man this is so horrible...
I get so frustrated watching this team. Well the be specific, I am frustrated with Saunders coaching, watching McGee be all scared to block shots and rebound, frustrated everytime I see Hilton Armstrong on the court, frustrated everytime I see Blatche pull up for a 15ft jumper, and what sticks out the most is the horrible defense. I’m going to keep watching my team, but I don’t want to phone it in 20 games into the season. These guys need to get it together…
man I don't know...
better than the garbage I see…we need to form a team of underdogs. New York about to get Paul and Carmelo…we need a bunch of good guys,but not like superstar players. We have Wall already…I want someone on Rashard Lewis level, Rudy Gay level, Nate Robinson level….we need a couple of those on the team if we want to compete…
The Wizards will
in a few years. Patience.
Exactly.
I couldn’t care less about our record, our how we look this year, as long as the young guys are getting floor time and showing growth…
by Bullet Nation in Exile on Nov 10, 2010 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
Question
Probably obvious, but is the Week 2 PER the year to date or the PER for that week only? Either way, going forward I think you should track the most recent week’s PER, the preceding week (or 2) of PER, and the year to date PER, and give the variation between 1) recent week and preceding week(s); and 2) recent week and year.
Otherwise, good move not basing this solely off of PER, as it fluctuates too much week to week to function as the sole determinant of the … KEY TO THE PALACE!
Getting buckets since 2003.
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