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The Wizards' preseason, by the numbers

The Wizards' preseason has come and gone, so it's time to turn to everyone's favorite thing: numbers!  

Okay, I'm being facetious.  I get the natural reaction to ignore these things, since it's preseason and all.  But they also can potentially tell us a lot about how the season is going to play out, and they give us an idea just how well the Wizards are doing with their projected strengths and weaknesses.  Jake covered some of the more traditional statistical quirks on SB Nation D.C., but below the jump, here are some more advanced statistics, thanks to the wonderful Advanced Statistics calculator on Pick and Scroll.

For more on some of these, check out Orlando Pinstriped Post's guide to them from earlier this summer.

Star-divide

TEAM FOUR FACTORS (bold=very good, italics=very bad)

Team Pace Off Eff eFG% FT/FG OREB% TOr
OFFENSE 97.6 97.6 48.2 18.2 19.8 13.5
DEFENSE

96.9 47.2 24.9 20.3 15.3

 

A couple observations:

  • Maybe Basketball Prospectus was on to something when it said the Wizards' offense would struggle this year.  Even with John Wall (more on him in a second), the Wizards' offense was not very efficient during the preseason.  The defense, however, was quite good, though defenses are usually ahead of offenses in preseason.
  • The Wizards' defensive rebounding was particularly good, which is big because rebounding, on paper, looks like a major weakness this year.  More on this in a minute.
  • Getting to the free-throw line was a major issue.  For all his breathtaking play, Wall only got there less than 4.5 times a game.  It'll take him some time to get some respect from the referees, and he's the guy who the team is relying on getting to the line often.  

Some individual stats:

John Wall

  • 43.1 eFG% 
  • 47.9 TS%
  • 37.5% assist rate
  • 19% turnover rate
  • 24.7% usage rate

Yeesh.  While we're all gushing over Wall's preseason performance, those are not pretty numbers.  A 37.5% assist percentage is pretty solid, but Wall also turned it over a lot, and his shooting was really bad.  The silver lining is we knew he'd struggle with shooting and with turnovers, so it shouldn't be surprising that he struggled there.  I also expect that usage rate to go down with Gilbert Arenas playing regularly, so that should help his efficiency too.  But the lack of free throws is pretty surprising, since that's supposed to be one of the defining characteristics of his game.

All in all, Wall proved that he still has growing up to do.  That's okay.  Let's just enjoy that ride.

Andray Blatche

  • 49% TS%
  • 13.4% REB%
  • 28.1% usage rate

This is the guy that really disappointed me during the preseason.  I realize he's still working his way back from his foot injury over the summer, but you have to be concerned about what we saw from him.  

The big problem with Blatche is that he's still conditioned to being the top option with a bunch of bad teammates.  As such, he's launching a ton of shots and not hitting very many of them.  Now that he's being asked to do more things than post up, Blatche is struggling.  He's taking shots off the dribble, not getting into the paint enough and even taking three-pointers.  I don't question Blatche's mentality, because he does need some time to adjust, but I do think he still isn't really sure how he fits in with Wall and a healthy Arenas.  This is something to watch as the season gets going.

JaVale McGee

  • 59.3% TS%, 
  • 27.8% DREB%
  • 18.9% REB% 
  • 18.2% TO%
  • 8.8% BLK%
  • 21.5% USG%

We can certainly argue with his technique, but it's hard to argue with McGee's performance on the defensive glass.  When you can snare close to one in five rebounds while you're on the court, you're doing an excellent job.  He's also scoring extremely efficiently, and the 8.8% block percentage is out of control.  The next step for JaVale is cutting down on the turnovers.

Kirk Hinrich

  • 58.5% TS%
  • 20.7% AST%
  • 15.1 TO%
  • 15.2% USG%

Hinrich may have been the Wizards' best player in the preseason.  He probably won't shoot as well as he has been shooting, but he's filled in the blanks in a limited role and been extremely efficient.  Even if that TS% goes down a bit, it should stay pretty high assuming he continues to be good at spotting up from three.

Gilbert Arenas

  • 58.4% TS%
  • 19.4% AST%
  • 10.2% TO%
  • 20.7 USG%

It's a limited sample, but Arenas was very efficient in the four preseason games he's played.  It's worth noting that the Wizards went just 1-3 this preseason when Arenas didn't play (we're counting the Bucks game).  The next step is getting to the free-throw line more than seven times in 3+ games.

Yi Jianlian

  • 50% TS%
  • 14.3% REB% 
  • 19.1% USG%

As much as we enjoyed Yi's play this preseason, his advanced numbers weren't very far off from his career numbers. He was a little more efficient and a little better on the glass, but overall, he was the same guy on offense.  His defense did look better, but let's not pretend he broke out just yet. 

Nick Young

  • 51.7 TS%
  • 3.4% AST% 
  • 6.5% TO%
  • 23% USG%

I'll just quote Jake here.

3: The number of assists Nick Young compiled in 150 minutes of preseason action. That's an assist every 50 minutes, or two minutes longer than a regulation NBA game.    

Al Thornton

 

  • 53.4% TS%
  • 8.1% REB%
  • 15.5% USG%
The most striking thing about Thornton is how little he shot the ball.  If he can keep that up, maybe he can earn those small forward minutes.

Trevor Booker

  • 31.6% TS%
  • 18.3% REB%
  • 22% TO%
  • 17.6% USG%
Booker's rebounding numbers are inflated by his big last game against Detroit.  All in all, it was a pretty bad preseason for him.  He looked tentative, which contributed to his shooting and turnover issues.  When you're open, Trevor, shoot the ball. 

 

FINAL ROSTER SPOT SMACKDOWN

Lester Hudson

 

  • 47.4 TS%
  • 31.5% AST%
  • 20.1% TO%
  • 25.6% USG%
Hudson shot a lot, didn't do so efficiently and turned it over a lot.  I liked him being on the final roster, but these numbers make me pause.

 

Cartier Martin

 

  • 68.1% TS%
  • 8.4% REB%
  • 22.8% TO%
  • 11.7% USG%
To me, the stat that tells the whole story is that Martin grabbed more available rebounds than Al Thornton.  He was on fire with his shot, which won't carry over, but I love his performance in the effort stats.  I think he's earned his spot on the team.

 

Adam Morrison

 

  • 56.3% TS%
  • 10.1% TO%
  • 11% USG%
Morrison didn't play badly.  He just didn't play as well as Cartier Martin.

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My prediction (from an earlier comment on a different post) is that both Hinrich and Gilbert Arenas will thrive playing next to John Wall. I believe both will shoot the best percentages of their careers this year.

Gil doesn’t have to worry about getting others involved – or “creating shots” for others – so he can just concentrate on scoring… and we all know Gilbert can score. The difference this year is that; with John Wall, the defense will be occupied more often by the primary ball handler – losing track of Arenas; leading to more open shots. Open shots = higher efficiency.

Same for Kirk Hinrich – ESPECIALLY if and when he is playing next to Wall and Arenas.

We’ve already seen a small sampling this pre-season as both Hinrich and Arenas shot well and were very efficient.

Where it’s gonna hurt the Wizards is when teams start packing it inside on the half-court offense… – Wall will have fewer drive and kick opportunities – Blatche and McGee will have fewer easy baskets….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 3:02 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm betting Arenas has his best shooting year of his career next to Wall...

Efficient, deadly, (especially on open catch-and-shoot situations) – but not the explosive scorer of old (no more 50 point games)…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

It’ll be interesting to see what his 3pt% winds up being. I think he’s typically been around 35%, but I could see him getting it up into the high 30s, maybe even 40% since he won’t be taking as many off of the dribble.

by pantslessyoda1 on Oct 22, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Booker’s TS is 31.6 and you want him to shoot MORE?

I like Martin’s numbers. He seems an obvious pick to make the roster.

by MR on Oct 21, 2010 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

If you are a guy who is left wide open

And is not shooting the shot the D is giving to you, you are hurting your team more times than not.

by qthaballa on Oct 21, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Especially when you're fifteen feet from the basket

It’s not like he’s being left open for threes, he’s usually just at the elbow. Even Rondo can hit that shot.

by pantslessyoda1 on Oct 22, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Stats sometimes miss the forest for the trees.

Morrison was terrible in preseason, looks like he doesnt belong on an nba court.

by DCrez on Oct 21, 2010 3:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Except

that he can hit an open 3-pointer…. There’s always room on an NBA team for a guy that can hit the 3

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

If they're gonna keep a guy on the bench

specifically for 3-point shooting… I’d rather it be Morrison than Hudson

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is defense considered valuable?

Hudson can guard 1s and 2s, Morrison can guard…..nothing. With Gil’s health always a question, who knows how much play Hudson could conceivably get. He definitely plays hard defense, something Flip and EG are claiming to emphasis this season.

by DCrez on Oct 22, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the original point is moot

since Morrison has been cut….

But I don’t want 6’2" Lester Hudson guarding the big Shooting Guards in the East….. I don’t care how hard he plays on defense, Joe Johnson, Iguodala or Vince Carter will just light him up….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 22, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Who would you have wanted Morrison to guard?

No doubt the point is now moot! I just agree with the team’s decision that Hudson is a more valuable player than Morrison. Of course, Hudson could be gone this afternoon.

Also, we are going to ask Hinrich to guard all those guys and while a better defender than Hudson it’s still going to be rough.

by DCrez on Oct 22, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think Morrison was nearly as bad as everyone here says

he rebounded well… he played smart defense (from a positioning standpoint)… Granted his physical limitations (slow-footed, non-quickness) hampered his ability to play GOOD defense… but he was never “out of position” … and he didn’t lack from trying. On offense, he moved the ball (it didn’t stick) – he didn’t pound the dribble (same cannot be said of Hudson) – and he hit open jump shots (even though he passed up a couple) -

Morrison was a long shot to make the team anyway – and he was my “sentimental” favorite to make the team.

If the Wizards are going to keep only 14 players – my opinion is that Hudson should be the one cut. He doesn’t bring anything that the Wizards don’t already have. He’s not a true PG, and in that sense, he’s really just a short SG. (like Randy Foye, except shorter)… He has limited upside.

On the other hand Cartier Martin brings size, defense and shooting range… and N’diaye can play defense, block shots and rebound. Hamaday also has some upside…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 22, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Morrison may be the worst defender in the nba.

We must have been watching different games.

Agree on keeping H, and given it would be egg on Ernie’s face to cut him, probably safe to assume he gets a spot.

by DCrez on Oct 22, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree. There's not much else to say about Morrison except he really, really sucks.

I’m not sure who you are watching. Morrison just doesnt look like he belongs, at all. Lester is a competitor. He will push Gil and John in practice. What the hell is Morrison going to do? Let’s be real, the 12th man isn’t going to contribute down the strech. Let’s get a practice player.

by tw10 on Oct 24, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

No real surprises in the numbers

By his own admission, Dray ate too much when he was injured and is having a hard time getting game-ready. He needs to go balls-out for the next 7 days for the Wiz to have a chance at the beginning of the season.

Assuming Arenas will be healthy, I think the pre-season indicates what role he will play this year. The issue is what goes on between his ears. Hard to put stats on that.

There is a huge vacuum at the 3 to start the season. No one stepped up to fill Howard’s shoes.

by Izman on Oct 21, 2010 3:33 PM EDT reply actions  

He's going to be our leading scorer- for better or worse.

Hopefully all the jacked up shots in preseason were about trying to get his stroke back in meaningless games.

by DCrez on Oct 21, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

all the jacked up shots

Even when Arenas shoots an unbelievable percentage from the field (50% during preseason, with an equally unbelievable 58.4% TSP) – someone has to accuse him of “jacking”… If that’s jacking up shots, give me that kind of jacking every game for the rest of the year….

Hey, Gilbert shot 32 times in preseason (in 4 games), or 8 shots per game and made 50%.

By comparison, Andray Blatche shot 97 shots in 7 games (13.85 shots per game) at a 45% clip; and Kirk Hinrich shot 52 times in 7 games (7.4 shots per game) at 46%….

John Wall shot the ball 14.4 times per game at a very pedestrian 42.6% rate….

How come you’re not calling out Blatche or Hinrich or Wall for “shot jacking”…?

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh -= sorry

but I doubt Blatche will be the leading scorer…. He may actually be third behind Arenas, and Wall….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I doubt Wall is going to avg a ton of assists AND score more than

our best post option. Check that, I hope not, because I’d like to see at least some semblance of an inside oriented offense this season.

by DCrez on Oct 22, 2010 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Blatche will score more than Wall

No question. If he doesn’t, then Wall is not doing his job because he’ll be shot-jacking off the dribble rather than distributing.

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Oct 22, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Off the cuff

I think we are looking at: Arenas 21-22 per game; Blatche 17.5 per game; Wall 15.5 per game. When Howard returns, he may even surpass Wall’s scoring, though I don’t know if that would be a good thing.

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Oct 22, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Should we really be concerned

with Nick Young’s paltry assist numbers. This team has enough good passers IMO. Rebounds, steals and blocks might be better categories for him to improve on.

He grabbed 7 boards vs Milwaukee and got 2 steals vs Atlanta. He has the ability to do more than score but he seldom stuffs the stat sheet in more than two categories per game.

by el freako on Oct 21, 2010 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I've been a big Nick Young fan.... but

he really seldom stuffs any stat other than scoring….

A typical Nick Young night is either

A) Shooting the lights out, and scoring a lot (with no rebounds, assists etc…)

or

B) Nick Young shooting a lot, but missing a lot (but STILL with no rebounds or assists)….

In scenario A, he usually plays passable defense… in scenario B, not so much.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

On the money

But I agree with el freako, in that game against the Hawks when he filled it up, people were complaining about his assists. He scored in the flow of the game and was the hot hand. He didn’t need to pass.

What I would like to see is more effort on the boards. Watch Nick Young on the defensive side when the shot goes up and you’re going to punch something when you see what he’s doing. He needs to rush in there and help on the boards.

by qthaballa on Oct 21, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

agree with el freako

I’m more interested in his D and rebounding. Though I gotta say I’m not too concerned about his scoring. I don’t think we will have any problems scoring this year barring a rash of injuries. Gil, Dray and Wall can really score. KH and later JH can also provide some scoring plus I think Wall helps get more scoring out of guys like Yi, McGee, Thornton, Cartier etc. I don’t see the need for a “bench scorer” on this team or really most teams(think it is overhyped in the NBA as most teams don’t swap all 5 out at a time.) I mean have the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs and other recently good teams really relied on a Vinnie “Microwave” Johnson type? It seems to me it is more versatile 2-way guys like Odom, Posey, etc who have been key bench contributors but to be honest thats an impression haven’t really researched it.

The thing for me and NY is it seems like everything depends on him as a focus of the offense putting up lots of shots. I like that they found a more efficent way for him to do that with the catch and shoot but I would prefer if they broke it down to basics and reinvented his mindset. It seems they’ve been concerned with changing the way he “stars” rather than adjusting him to a valued role player. NY already has all the skills to be a starter on any playoff team. All he has to do is play above average perimeter D, Run hard on transistion O and D, Finish on fast breaks, hit open 3’s and move the ball on O. If he did that he would be a major piece on a playoff team while only having 2-3 plays run for him a game. Does anyone feel he doesn’t already have the skill set for that? I mean he could be getting PAID 5-7M a year on contending teams but instead he’s just waiting for everything to fall in place and the All-Star appearances to follow. I’m tired of knowing he’s gonna take 15 shots a game if he starts and hoping he shoots well and doing other stuff. I think Posey or Ariza should be his model not Reggie Miller or Rip Hamilton.

by BayAreaBullet on Oct 21, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

have the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs and other recently good teams really relied on a Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson type?

Does Manu qualify?

by MR on Oct 21, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahhhh mannnn

I knew I’d forget someone. Good catch MR.

by BayAreaBullet on Oct 21, 2010 11:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think Posey or Ariza should be his model not Reggie Miller or Rip Hamilton.

I still doubt that because at the core of him, he is an offense player who needs to learn to play D. Maybe he’ll never get it, but if he can consistently hit the mid ranger and become half the player RIP was, I won’t mind.

by qthaballa on Oct 22, 2010 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wall's and Hudson's stats are pretty much identical

   
    * 47.9 TS%
    * 37.5% assist rate
    * 19% turnover rate
    * 24.7% usage rate

    * 47.4 TS%
    * 31.5% AST%
    * 20.1% TO%
    * 25.6% USG%

"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff

by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 21, 2010 6:19 PM EDT reply actions  

These stats don't tell that story well

Hudson’s stats look better than he performs on the court.
Wall’s stats look worse than he performs on the court.
Yet Wall still has better overall stats (note the assists).

Score one for +/- though. Per 48 minutes, Wall is plus 4 while Hudson is negative 17 (ouch).
This may end up being the best metric for seeing Wall’s value, since a big part of what he’s doing is making it easier for other guys to make plays, and forcing opponents to account for him at all times on both ends of the court.

by steadyhand on Oct 22, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I were Grunfeld right now

Looking at how mediocre the team looked in spite of Wall’s at times breath-taking play this preseason I’d trade Arenas and my first round pick to the Knicks for Eddie Curry and garbage. Then I’d lock Wall up in a good long-term contract, and use Curry’s expiring and the extra salary space to sign a top-tier big man and shooting guard after the lockout next season. By then a lot of players might like the money and the chance to play with Wall (something Arenas has shown nothing but a pouty face for). The team won’t be bad (or lucky) enough to get a second straight #1 pick anyway, and the Knicks are desperate for a pick to peddle to Denver for Anthony. And who knows, we might get something better than garbage from the Knicks, a player or two who can fill in or get traded.

by Iwitness on Oct 21, 2010 9:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Arenas AND a first round pick....

You must really want to play Santa to the Knicks…

by khrabb on Oct 21, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who says Wall wants to sign a long term deal now?

This is a 2 way street, if he’s great but the team is hopeless for a few years….he’ll leave.

by DCrez on Oct 22, 2010 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Two problems with that scenario....
trade Arenas and my first round pick to the Knicks for Eddie Curry and garbage.

First: If the Wizards could have traded Arenas and a pick to the Knicks for expiring contracts – I think they would have done so long ago…

Second: If the Knicks did that deal – they would no longer have the assets required to obtain Carmello Anthony…. because Denver is looking for young, stud players + Cap relief + draft pick(s)

New Jersey has offered $15 Million in expiring contracts + Derrick Favors + TWO first round draft picks – and Denver has not taken it….. If New York trades Curry to Washington, how are they going to top the NJ Nets offer?

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 9:42 PM EDT reply actions  

One thing

It wasn’t about Denver not taking the trade. Carmelo wouldn’t agree to accept a contract extension from the Nets so they figured why trade their loot for 1 yr of Melo. No use talking about that trade anyway, if Melo goes, its New York.

by qthaballa on Oct 21, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where did you read that Melo nixed the NJ trade?

That makes sense – since if I were Denver, I would have jumped all over that trade….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well he didn't exactly nix it

NJ was putting on the pressure to sign an extension first and Carmelo was in no rush to do so. It was said on most your usual media outlets (ESPN sucks when it comes to covering anything but BIG news), maybe Yahoo sports.

by qthaballa on Oct 22, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right--

The only team that Anthony seems willing to sign that extension with right now is the Knicks. The Nets aren’t going to land any big name free agents until they’re actually in Brooklyn and change their name.

Rook is probably right about the trade already taking place if it was going to, though. I was just trying to start a new topic here ;)

by Iwitness on Oct 22, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have an unrelated question

Does anyone happen to know what shoes Gil will be wearing this season???

The NBA: Where Donaghy Happens.

by imissnoch on Oct 21, 2010 10:02 PM EDT reply actions  

I want to know that too!

I think i read he was rocking Nikes somewhere

"If you don't shoot, you can't score"
Johan Cruijff

by Dutch Hoopfan on Oct 21, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

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