Putting some numbers on the Mike Miller effect
by Mike Prada on Jan 22, 2010 11:32 AM EST
in Player Analysis
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PrintSo much negativity. So much justified negativity. Let's talk about something positive!
Let's talk about Mike Miller. We've talked about Mike Miller all season as if he has some magic intangible effect that uplifts the team. He moves mountains! He makes girls swoon with his southern country twang! He's so awesome that his little kids are taller than most 10-year olds (they actually are - he brought his kids into the locker room the other day, and I was shocked to find out they were just six and four respectively).
Okay, I'm getting a little carried away, but if you've read this site for a while, you know I'm naturally skeptical of those "intangible" guys. I hated Michael Ruffin, for example, even though many people loved the little things he did. Same with Etan Thomas and his "toughness." It took me a while to come around to Darius Songaila, and I'm still not sure I ever came around. Why? Because often times, when we talk about intangibles, we do so because there's absolutely nothing good about the players' game. They don't bring anything that we can define to the table, so we use vague terms to try to describe how they help the team. More often than not, they don't actually do anything to help the team, and we're left to try to understand why coaches play them.
But Mike Miller is different. Why? Well, for players whose major skill is intangible, it's very important that we are able to quantifiably define how they help the team. I defended Brendan Haywood for several years because, even while he wasn't playing much, his presence alone made the Wizards a much better defensive and rebounding team statistically. (Don't believe me? Go to the 82games.com archives). In my mind, your intangible quality has to help the team in some tangible way for me to bestow that status on you.
So with that, does Mike Miller pass the smell test? Yes, in a big way. Check out the different ways in which he helps the offense statistically. (Via 82Games, of course).
- Offensive efficiency with Miller in the game: 118.6
- Offensive Efficiency with Miller out of the game: 103.5
- Team effective field goal percentage with Miller in the game: 52.7%
- Team effective field goal percentage with Miller out of the game: 47.2%
- Percentage of field goals that were assisted with Miller in the game: 58%
- Percentage of field goals that were assisted with Miller out of the game: 47%
- Percentage of rebounds grabbed with Miller in the game: 54%
- Percentage of rebounds grabbed with Miller out of the game: 49%
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i agree mike
what do you think the chances are we can re-sign him?
with all the messiness here in washington, is it your sense he will leave as soon as he can?
Good points, but...
you have to play to judge your value. MM hasn’t played enough in a consistent role.
Speaking of playing, Foye and Haywood are now getting consistent minutes in consistent roles. Their play seems to be improved. Coincidence? What would Rook say about Foye’s play since the change?
I'd say that he's a passable PG (but still a very poor SG )
He can guard Point Guards… he can score…. but he’s not especially the best facilitator for a PG… which is why it’s best when he plays with Mike Miller or when he played with Gilbert Arenas… Excellent coming off screens, or when he catches and shoots… Very good in transition, especially finding the right guy to finish.
HOWEVER – he’s a terrible SG. He can’t defend the bigger guys. He has trouble getting his shot off against the bigger guys. He doesn’t finish particularly well at the rim, and seems to have trouble finding guys when he DOES go to the rim (blinders)….
As for consistent minutes… Haywood is a poor example to use for a “consistent minutes” argument. Brendan Haywood’s per 36 (or per 40, whichever you prefer) – are remarkably consistent… from year to year. Even when he was getting his minutes jerked around during the Eddie Jordan/Etan Thomas years. He has averaged between 11.7 – 14.5 Points per 40 minutes and between 9.9 to 11.0 rebounds per 40 minutes for every year of his career after his rookie season. His TS% hovers around 56% – 58% …. while his usage rates and turn over rates remain relatively constant… NO MATTER HOW MANY MINUTES HE’S GETTING.
During his career, he’s played a low of 19 minutes per game, and a high of 34 per game (this year)… But it’s not like his minutes have steadily increased… instead one year he’s getting 19 minutes, the next 27… then the next 22, then 28….. Extraordinarily difficult to maintain consistent numbers when your minutes vary so drastically – but Haywood somehow managed to do it.
This year, he’s rebounding slightly better (12.8 per 40), but otherwise his numbers are right on par with the rest of this career.
Randy Foye is also putting up numbers this year that are very similar to prior years. He’s not the perfect “pure Point Guard”, but he’s the best the Wizards have on the roster right now. But ideally, he’s a back-up PG on a Playoff team.
And don’t get me wrong… I don’t dislike Randy Foye…. I dislike playing Randy Foye as a Shooting Guard.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
But ideally, he’s a back-up PG on a Playoff team
Ah, that thought brings me back to the heady, optimistic days of October when Randy Foye looked like he was slated to be a great backup PG on a playoff team.
Can that have only been 3 months ago? It seems like years.
by MR on Jan 22, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I'm telling you, he's perfect for the Lakers
Does everything Fisher does and a lot of things he can’t. I just wish the Lakers had something we could possibly want.
by pantslessyoda1 on Jan 22, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
If I’m LA I’m not shaking up the roster to go from Fisher to Foye. Stability is their friend.
by MR on Jan 22, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
They need defense from their PG and Foye's not going to provide that
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
teammates adjustment
I’d love to see a lot more “drive and kickout” plays from his teammates. Its like none of them have ever played with a great shooter. None of them look to kick the ball out to to Miller at the 3 point line once the defense collapses on them when they drive (I’m talking about you Caron and Earl). They end up forcing contested shots. Even Foye, who played with him in Minnesota.
Foye just can't see that
Going back to his entire MN history, Randy Foye’s court vision is just not that good when he’s driving inside. It closes down.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
*Southern* twang?
Dude’s from South Dakota, I guess. Played High School ball in the home of the Corn Palace, Mitchell SD.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
He seems to have a twang of sorts when he talks
Might just be me though.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Maybe it cropped up after he, uh, cropped his 'do?
South Dakota isn’t much known for its confused euro hairstyles, either. :~)
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
country twang -
could be southern, midwestern, western – it’s just country.
"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith
by little stevie colter on Jan 22, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, let me change the post
Because that’s more fitting.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
nice
these little details are what makes this site a cut above the rest.
"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith
by little stevie colter on Jan 22, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
It is a South Dakota accent and yes, they have a very recognizable one. Oh Geez.
http://www.city-data.com/city/Mitchell-South-Dakota.html
I did find it out that one of Miller’s son’s name is Mavrick.
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/mike_miller/bio.html
"You taught me a lesson, I was going to give someone the benefit of doubt, and I almost did, then something said, no don't, don't, its not for you, its not my thing" Larry David,
Mavrick with no "e"??
I’ve been through Mitchell, have a few different years’ worth of family photos in front of the kitschy “Corn Palace” on the way to my Colorado cabin, and if there’s a big accent it’s not that apparent to me. But then, we’re Minnesotans, you betcha, and nobody here talks much like “Fargo” either.
Oh lordy, though. No “e” in Mavrick. Is Mason, his other boy, a dead ringer for Val Kilmer?
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Throw Taser in that group of Ruffin, Thomas, Songaila. The guy sucks lol but that’s my opinion.
We should get the ball to Miller alot more. I always wanted to see this lineup this season.
Foye PG
Arenas SG
Mike Miller SF
Jamison PF
Haywood C
I think if we could have maintained that starting line up with NO injuries or missing players for one single game we would be 1) 20+ games and somewhat high in our division. Oh well injury bug strikes another year and another year to wonder what we could have been.
by Unxpekted on Jan 22, 2010 12:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions
In my mind, your intangible quality has to help the team in some tangible way for me to bestow that status on you.
That sentence hurt brain. But me understand point.
it OK; me getting better...
…in fact I would argue that the crux of your argument is essentially this: Mike Miller is not really an “intangible guy.”
You could say that
Or that he’s a tangible intangible guy.
(Wow that made my head hurt).
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Good write up Mike. One of the other things I love about Miller is that he is so vocal on the floor. Not only in timeouts but before/after free throws, checking in and out of games, etc. He is always communicating.
Also, have you noticed anytime one of our guys goes down to the ground, he is the first one over to help pick them up. Seems like a little thing, but it tells a lot about a guy’s personality.
I hope Miller sticks around, I’d love to get to cover him some more.
by WizardsExtreme on Jan 22, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions
He does the same things on defense
Him and Haywood are the only ones who really yell a lot. Miller basically is to offense what Battier is to defense, in my opinion.
by pantslessyoda1 on Jan 22, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Guys like Miller (not flashy, underrated, and crazy hard working)
Are the kind of Bullets and Wizards I’ve always enjoyed watching. I really hope we can keep him — it’s pretty obvious he’s got leadership skills and the guy exudes “glue”. Wait, that sounded wrong…
Oh Prada!
You must not left your propensity toward stats get in the way of love for, or spark your hatred toward, glue guys like Ruffin … and especially SONGAILA!
Appreciate those who do so much with so little natural talent …. It’s the American way!
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
Keep some perspective on Mike Miller; he plays his best on bad teams
I have followed Mike Miller’s career very, very closely. The first time I saw him play at Florida he instantly became my favorite college player. Unlike Mike Dunleavy, Casey Jacobsen, or any of the guys on Kansas, Mike Miller was actually more athletic than most of his black counterparts, and he embraced it. I remember a play in the National Championship Game against Michigan State, when the Spartans tried to trap Miller up top with Morris Peterson and Mateen Cleaves. Miller went behind his back, split the double-team, and dished it off to a cutting Udonis Haslem for a dunk. It was incredible. Peterson and Cleaves were the two best players on the best defensive team in the country, and Miller made them look like the junior varsity. CBS showed multiple replays, and Billy Packer was equally as impressed as I was.
Mike Miller had the size, athleticism, and skill to be a perennial All-Star. His shot has always been absolutely perfect.
But, he just didn’t have the mental makeup.
In Orlando, with Grant Hill injured for multiple years, he was given the ultimate green light, since the team had nothing outside of he and McGrady. It was the perfect opportunity for him to develop. And he just didn’t. The Magic went to the playoffs both years he was there, and he did nothing, and just stood around watching while T-Mac went 1 on 5.
He was traded to Memphis, and they too tried to make him their backcourt star. But, again, he just couldn’t do it. It was James Posey, even though he had a fraction of Miller’s talent, who became the leader of the team. I watched seventy-five Memphis games the year they went 50-32, and their success was largely in spite of Miller. When the team regressed, his numbers improved. His “best” year was the year they went 22-60.
Sorry, I know I am using a lot of words to make a simple point, but I just think Mike Miller is a guy who plays better on bad teams, because he lacks the mental makeup of a winner. He wants to be one of the best players on a losing team, so that he can never be blamed. At Florida, Orlando, and Memphis, he only shined when his team would lose. When the team won, it was because of other players.
I am being awfully hard on him. And yes, the statistics don’t lie, he has been great for the Wizards this year when on the floor, but, have you ever heard of a player with his skill set NOT wanting to shoot? Its just weird. He is a vocal leader, and plays hard, but its only because he knows the team is going no where.
by John Park Williams on Jan 22, 2010 4:41 PM EST reply actions
Respectfully disagree
What’s melatonin got to do with it? Mike’s never been particularly athletic, although there are plenty of white guys who are. Not sure what point you’re trying to make there.
As for playing worse on good teams, the stats say you’re plain wrong. Miller’s best career PER was in 2005-2006, when he was on a 49-win Memphis team (which was the best team he’s played on). His second best PER? The 45-37 Memphis team the year before. His worst was on last year’s dreadful Minnesota team.
It’s easy to get quantity confused with quality in basketball. Counting stats are a very simple way to measure a player’s performance, but they’re horribly flawed. Even watching the games it’s easy to make this error, because we’re conditioned to count made baskets (and especially the difficult ones!) as the best measure of performance.
I respectfully disagree
with your assertion that he was never particularly athletic. When he was younger he had very good hops and quickness. He was never McGrady or Vince Carter, but he was about the equivalent of Trevor Ariza. I remember one dunk he had on Jermaine O’neal that was just incredible.
Thank you for pointing out his PER on the 49 win team. I did not know that. I did not follow that team. I also don’t know how you can possibly assert that his 49 win team was better than his 50 win team, but thats irrelevant. (Especially considering that 49 win team got swept in the playoffs. Mike Miller’s career playoff record is 2-18).
I followed the 2003-2004 Grizzlies about as close as I have ever followed a team. Watched every game I could. And he was just the weak link. He did not want to be pigeonholed as just an outside shooter, so he would constantly try to do things he just couldn’t do.
The point I am trying to make is just not to get your hopes up on Mike Miller. I personally would not like to see them re-sign him.
by John Park Williams on Jan 22, 2010 11:10 PM EST reply actions
Somehow when I was checking I didn't see the 50 wins
I think i was still looking at Orlando for that year. The stats agree that he wasn’t as good that year (slightly below his career average numbers), but that was still pretty early in his career (he was only 23 that season) — it was the next year that he turned the corner. His TS% is for every year after that is better than for every year before that.
I didn’t follow him closely early in his career, so I’ll take your word for it that he used to be athletic. I thought his rep was always that he was kind of slow.
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